TAR HEEL STATE OF MIND — For all the focus on the presidency and the battle for Congress in 2024, arguably one of the most interesting — and consequential — races next year will be the battle for the governorship of North Carolina. Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is term-limited after winning a pair of close contests in 2016 and 2020 — first narrowly unseating then-Gov. Pat McCrory and, four years later, beating then-Lt. Gov. Dan Forest to secure reelection. The state has been politically confounding, something that will likely continue in 2024. McCrory’s one term is the only time that a Republican has held the governorship this side of Y2K. But on the federal level, it has been incredibly frustrating for Democrats. 2008 brought narrow wins for both Barack Obama and now-former Sen. Kay Hagan, but that was the last time a Democrat won a statewide federal election. Most recently, now-Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) won an open-seat race by about 3 points last year, and Joe Biden lost to Donald Trump by less than a point and a half in 2020. North Carolina’s status as that elusive battleground dream for Democrats will hang not only over the presidential contest next year, but the race to replace Cooper as well. After a decade-plus of success there, Republicans are itching for another go at the governorship without Cooper on the ballot. The race to replace Cooper takes a new turn on Monday, when Cooper is set to deliver his annual State of the State address. The person giving the GOP response: Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson. (In North Carolina, the governor and lieutenant governor are elected independently, and Robinson won his first term in 2020.) Robinson has long been assumed to be running for the governorship in 2024 — and he has publicly hinted as much — and Monday’s response will be one of his biggest platforms ahead of his expected run. (You can watch both Cooper’s address and Robinson’s response Monday night at 7 p.m. courtesy of PBS North Carolina.) It is fair to say that Cooper and Robinson don’t have the warmest of relationships. Robinson has a history of antisemitic comments, along with numerous other controversial comments, and Cooper passed on a Senate run in the midterms by citing, in part, the danger Robinson would pose in the governor’s office. But Robinson’s rapid political rise has made him a conservative star — he spoke at CPAC over the weekend. A way, way too early poll of the GOP primary from Carolina Forward, a liberal group in the state, last year found him as the frontrunner. That’s not to suggest that Robinson will be the only one running for the nomination. Others in the state are considering runs as well, including former Rep. Mark Walker, who told The Assembly’s Bryan Anderson last month he’s been taking meetings about a potential run, and state Treasurer Dale Folwell. (The editorial boards for McClatchy papers in the state even floated Sen. Thom Tillis last summer.) On the Democratic side, all signs point to state Attorney General Josh Stein. Stein, who like Cooper won statewide in 2016 and 2020, launched his campaign in mid-January. He rolled out his campaign with a long list of endorsements in the state and is expected to be well-funded. And while you never say never about a primary contest, his early entry into the race is anticipated to ward off any serious challengers. Good Monday morning! Score host emeritus Zach Montellaro here, filling in for Madison. Tell me all the reasons why the Mets are the favorites for this year’s World Series at zmontellaro@politico.com or @ZachMontellaro. Send the actual news to Madison (mfernandez@politico.com; @madfernandez616), she’ll be back tomorrow. Days until the Wisconsin Supreme Court election: 29 Days until the Kentucky primary: 71 Days until the Mississippi primary: 155 Days until the Louisiana primary: 222 Days until the 2023 election: 246 Days until the 2024 election: 610
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