| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
| 
While we don’t know for sure what crime that Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg will allege, the weight of available evidence suggests Donald Trump will be charged with violating a New York state law against falsifying business records. | Wesley Parnell for POLITICO | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | JUST POSTED — “Comer, Republicans’ Investigative Chief, Embraces Role of Biden Antagonist,” by Jonathan Swan and Luke Broadwater: “The fourth-term Kentuckian and chairman of the House Oversight and Accountability Committee has become an aggressive promoter of sinister-sounding claims about the president and his family.” Eyes emoji: “Mr. Comer indicated he had no interest in the former president’s finances. While he did not rule out looking at Mr. Kushner’s business dealings at some point, when a reporter suggested it might be politically unsustainable for him to investigate Mr. Trump’s son-in-law, he took a long pause, then replied: ‘I don’t disagree with what you said.’” UNDERSTANDING THE TRUMP ‘ZOMBIE’ CASE — On the afternoon of Jan. 6, 2021, as pro-Trump rioters were ransacking the Capitol in Washington, prosecutors in Manhattan gathered on Zoom to discuss DONALD TRUMP’s bookkeeping practices. More than two years later, while state and federal criminal investigations into Trump’s culpability for the events of Jan. 6 continue, it is the Manhattan probe that is set to produce the first Trump indictment, as soon as this week. The grand jury hearing the case meets again tomorrow.. While we don’t know for sure what crime — or crimes — that Manhattan DA ALVIN BRAGG will allege, the weight of available evidence suggests Trump will be charged with violating a New York state law against falsifying business records. Specifically, Bragg is apparently preparing to argue that Trump created fictitious records during the scheme to pay off STORMY DANIELS in October 2016 after she threatened to expose their alleged affair. The return of the hush money caper to the white-hot center of American politics has a lot of people scratching their heads and puzzling over some basic questions: Of all the Trump scandals, why is this the one that’s going to get him arrested? Didn’t authorities already rule out any culpability for Trump in that case? And isn’t Bragg’s legal theory hopelessly flawed? To understand how one of the OG Trump scandals returned from the dead to ensnare Trump seven years after Daniels got her $130,000, we need to review the case’s complicated history. In 2021, inside the Manhattan DA’s office, then run by CY VANCE, the Daniels saga was known as the “zombie” case. It was dead and then brought back to life by MARK POMERANTZ, who led the Manhattan DA’s Trump investigation. When he started the job in early 2021, Pomerantz first dug into the hush money payments because, he later wrote, “it was interesting and easy to understand,” unlike the complicated financial investigation of the Trump Organization that would later become his focus. The case started as a federal criminal probe of MICHAEL COHEN, Trump’s longtime fixer. Some basic facts are not in dispute: Cohen took out a home equity loan to pay Daniels the $130K. Cohen then billed Trump to reimburse him. While in the White House, Trump personally signed the reimbursement checks to Cohen throughout 2017. The Trump Organization recorded the payments as “legal expenses.” In 2018, prosecutors in the Southern District of New York unraveled the entire affair, charging Cohen with, among other things, making illegal federal campaign contributions. In the sentencing memorandum written after Cohen pleaded guilty, the feds said Cohen “acted in coordination with and at the direction of” Trump (who was thinly disguised as “Individual-1”). When all of this was disclosed back then, it was common for legal pundits to assume that the guy who SDNY said directed this illegal scheme was guilty of the same crime. It “now leaves little doubt that [Trump] faces criminal prosecution after he leaves office for the same offenses for which Cohen will serve time,” BOB BAUER, now Biden’s personal lawyer, told the NYT in 2019.
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Explore more possibilities with the metaverse. | | | But SDNY never pursued a case against Trump. Pomerantz, according to his book about the case, surmised that they were 1) abiding by the DOJ’s guidance against indicting a sitting president and 2) had such a difficult relationship with Cohen, who was never offered a formal cooperating witness deal, that they didn’t want to rely on him as a witness. So Pomerantz and his colleagues in the DA’s office took up the case instead. And then they dropped it. There were two reasons. First, they believed they had a better case against Trump that involved financial fraud. But, secondly, there was a hiccup that they worried could potentially cripple the case before it ever reached a jury: In New York, falsifying business records can be charged as a felony only if the records are falsified to perpetrate or hide “another crime,” and nobody knew whether the state law’s wording covered a federal crime — such as the campaign finance violation that Cohen was convicted of. Pomerantz ditched the Stormy case and moved on to put together a highly complex financial fraud case. When Bragg replaced Vance, he declined to move forward with Pomerantz’s fraud case — much of which was taken up by the New York attorney general and referred to federal prosecutors, who have far more resources for that kind of difficult case. But Bragg revived the hush money investigation. The zombie case was once again back from the dead. The two big potential weaknesses of the case remain: 1) Can prosecutors overcome the ambiguity of the statute to ensure a felony charge? And 2) how much will prosecutors need to rely on Cohen, a convicted felon, as their star witness in the case? When you read the indictment (if there is an indictment) look for answers to those two questions. One person close to the case told Playbook they do not believe they are major hurdles. “If you solicit an illegal campaign contribution, federal or state, it's a crime. You're violating the campaign contribution limits in New York state just as much as you're violating federal campaign finance laws,” the person said. On the question of Cohen’s credibility, this person argued that there is little that he has told the DA that isn’t backed up by corroborating evidence. One exception is an account of a meeting between Trump, Cohen and former Trump Organization CFO ALLEN WEISSELBERG where the three men allegedly discussed details of the payment scheme. “So with that, it's Trump's word against Cohen’s,” the person said. “Take me into a jury room with that choice, and I don't have any doubt who they're gonna believe.” Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line with your legal analysis of the Bragg case: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Meta:   | | | TRUMP STATE OF PLAY — The apparent endgame in the Manhattan investigation played out off Foley Square yesterday. After former Cohen adviser ROBERT COSTELLO testified before the grand jury, he told reporters afterward that Cohen is “totally unreliable” and that prosecutors had cherry-picked emails to ask about, Kelly Garrity and Erica Orden report. Cohen later rebutted Costello’s claims as out of the Trump playbook: “Figure out how you’re going to muddy the water as best as you possibly can, denigrate the person, disparage them.” And his attorney LANNY DAVIS said Cohen wouldn’t have to testify again. Cohen’s now on the precipice of “the role he’s been auditioning for since 2018: witness for the prosecution against his old boss,” Bloomberg’s Greg Farrell and Patricia Hurtado write in a new profile. Braggadocio: Two new stories from Erica Orden and NYT’s Jonah Bromwich dig into contradictions driving Bragg: People who know him tell Erica that he’s “uninterested in political calculations and generally indifferent to the types of public-relations offenses Trump likes to wage,” even as Trump supporters decry him as a partisan actor. What would come next: If Trump is arrested, he’d likely remain in Secret Service custody, Bloomberg’s Patricia Hurtado and David Voreacos report. Among the other details they relay: If an indictment comes down, it would likely remain sealed until it’s presented to a judge or Bragg gets the okay to announce it. And the judge overseeing the grand jury is JUAN MERCHAN, who also handled the ALLEN WEISSELBERG and Trump Organization cases. The political reverberations: Officials have seen a “significant increase” in threats and other violent postings from domestic extremists on the internet, CBS’ Pat Milton, Jeff Pegues and Caitlin Yilek report. Top-ed: “Stop Overthinking It: An Indictment Would Be Bad For Trump,” by Alex Burns: “Yes, the Trump diehards can be expected to rise up against Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg. But that still wouldn’t earn him a single additional vote.”
| | BIDEN’S TUESDAY:
9 a.m.: The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief.
1:15 p.m.: Biden will leave the White House for the White House Conservation in Action Summit at the Interior Department, where he’ll speak at 1:45 p.m.
4:30 p.m.: The Bidens will host a ceremony for the National Medals of Arts and National Humanities Medals in the East Room, with VP KAMALA HARRIS and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF attending.
Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 3 p.m.
THE SENATE will meet at 3 p.m. It will vote on the motion to proceed to the repeal of the Iraq authorizations for use of military force at 5 p.m.
THE HOUSE is out. | | | | | | We’re spilling the tea (and drinking tons of it in our newsroom) in U.K. politics with our latest newsletter, London Playbook PM. Get to know all the movers and shakers in Westminster and never miss a beat of British politics with a free subscription. Don’t miss out, we’ve got some exciting moves coming. Sign up today. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
|  Jason Sudeikis of the Apple TV+ comedy series "Ted Lasso" embraces White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre as other cast members look on during a White House daily news briefing on Monday, March 20. | Alex Wong/Getty Images | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | MORE POLITICS HAWKEYE OF THE STORM — Iowa was once known for purple politics and civil rights pioneering. But the state has shifted notably to the right in recent years, making for a political landscape that’s “virtually unrecognizable” from a decade ago, WaPo’s Annie Gowen writes in a big story from Des Moines. Statehouse reporters joke that it’s the “Florida of the North” now, with aggressive new Republican bills focused on schools and LGBT people. The Iowa swing was prompted in part by ancestral Democrats veering toward Trump and independents leaning right, and Gov. KIM REYNOLDS has helped drive the activism. THE YEAR’S MOST IMPORTANT ELECTION — “Wisconsin Supreme Court race heats up as gun safety group launches $500,000 ad,” by the Washington Examiner’s Rachel Schilke THE WHITE HOUSE JUST SAY NO — Biden issued the first veto of his presidency yesterday, blocking a bill that would have rescinded Labor Department policy to allow retirement fund managers to consider environmental, social and governance factors in investments. The Republican drive in Congress attracted two Democrats’ support to put it over the line in the Senate, but Biden said it “would put at risk the retirement savings of individuals across the country.” More from CNN WHAT BIDEN WOULDN’T VETO — “Biden signs measure to block controversial D.C. crime bill,” by CNN’s Clare Foran CHAOS IN THE BRIEFING ROOM — “White House, reporters push back on disruptive journalist at press briefing,” by The Hill’s Brett Samuels: “SIMON ATEBA, a correspondent for Today News Africa, began shouting out as press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE stepped to the podium, joined by [“Ted Lasso”] actors. … ‘It’s been seven months. You’ve not called on me. I’m saying that’s not right,’ Ateba said. … Monday’s outburst drew more rebuttal than usual from other reporters in the room who grew frustrated that Ateba was delaying and derailing the proceedings.” The context: “White House hosts cast of Apple TV+’s ‘Ted Lasso’ to discuss mental health,” by ABC’s Mary Kekatos CONGRESS REALITY CHECK — House Republicans consider their new energy bill so important they’ve labeled it H.R. 1. There’s just one problem: The energy industry says privately that it wouldn’t do much of value on permitting, Zack Colman reports, arguing behind closed doors that the legislation’s provisions “miss the point and would do little to help advance major projects.” BUDGET BURST — “Balanced budget takes back seat to paring spending to ’22 levels at GOP retreat,” by Roll Call’s Lindsey McPherson in Orlando, Fla. WHO’S AT DEFAULT — “‘Normalize’ doomsday? Dems lambaste GOP’s latest debt-limit gambit,” by Jennifer Scholtes: “Democratic leaders argue that even debating [debt prioritization] fuels a risky and dishonest theory that it’s possible to avert irreparable economic damage without raising the debt limit. Since GOP lawmakers keep talking it up, however, Democrats are happy to exploit the tricky politics of the convoluted proposal.” GREAT SCOTT — “How Rick Scott Became the Senator Washington Loves to Hate,” by The Daily Beast’s Sam Brodey: “From his admirers to his critics to his colleagues … [Sen. RICK] SCOTT’s provocative moves have left them wondering what, exactly, he is doing.” REPORT CARD — The Center for Effective Lawmaking yesterday put out its legislative effectiveness scores for the last Congress. The highest scorers, by party and chamber: GERRY CONNOLLY (Va.) for House Dems, DON BACON (Neb.) for House Republicans, GARY PETERS (Mich.) for Senate Dems and JOHN CORNYN (Texas) for Senate Rs. JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH THE TRIALS — “Four Convicted of Obstruction on Jan. 6 in Final Oath Keepers Trial,” by NYT’s Alan Feuer and Zach Montague WAR IN UKRAINE ZELENSKYY SPEAKS — “Zelensky Has an Answer for DeSantis,” by The Atlantic’s Anne Applebaum: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY “didn’t want to appeal to the hearts of Americans, in other words, but to their heads. … [T]his was his answer: Help us fight them here, help us defeat them here, and you won’t have to fight them anywhere else.” TOP-ED — “China Wins if Russia Conquers Ukraine,” by NIKKI HALEY in the WSJ: “Some call it a mere ‘territorial dispute.’ They say we should ignore Ukraine so we can focus on China. This has it backward.”
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- “Ms. Grossberg says she and other women endured frank and open sexism from co-workers and superiors at the network.”
- “The lawyers, she said, gave her the impression that she had to avoid mentioning prominent male executives and on-air talent to protect them from any blame, while putting her own reputation at risk.”
- “Fox superiors called Ms. Bartiromo a ‘crazy bitch’ who was ‘menopausal’ and asked Ms. Grossberg to cut the host out of coverage discussions.
- “On her first full day … Ms. Grossberg discovered that the show’s Manhattan work space was decorated with large pictures of Representative NANCY PELOSI of California, then the House speaker, wearing a plunging swimsuit.”
Fox’s response: “Fox News Media engaged an independent outside counsel to immediately investigate the concerns raised by Ms. Grossberg, which were made following a critical performance review. We will vigorously defend these claims.” Related read: “Is Sean Hannity a journalist? Role of hosts is key in Fox News lawsuit,” by WaPo’s Jeremy Barr AGENTS OF CHAOS — “CNN Drama Spills Over to Top Talent Agency UTA,” by The Daily Beast’s Lachlan Cartwright: “Rival agencies are circling some of United Talent Agency’s biggest names after CNN rising star KAITLAN COLLINS decided to fire her agent, UTA chief JAY SURES, over the handling of her off-air bust up with DON LEMON, a fellow UTA client … Now sensing blood in the water, agents at CAA and WME have been reaching out to Sures’ clients.” THE PANDEMIC SHOTS FIRED — “Moderna Paid the U.S. More Than Enough for Covid Shot Partnership, Executive Says,” by Bloomberg’s Angelica Peebles and Alexander Ruoff
| | | | DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS– DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Lindsey Graham bet Al Franken $20 that Trump beats Biden in 2024. Rupert Murdoch is newly engaged to Ann Lesley Smith. “I dreaded falling in love — but I knew this would be my last. It better be. I’m happy,” he told his N.Y. Post. Bruce Springsteen, Mindy Kaling, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Gladys Knight, Vera Wang, Ann Patchett, Bryan Stevenson, Amy Tan and Colson Whitehead are among the big names receiving the National Medal of Arts or National Humanities Medal today. Trent Crimm joined the White House press briefing with the “Ted Lasso” cast. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Kevin Holst has been hired as the new executive director of the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association, as the DLGA kicks off its big annual meeting today in D.C. He most recently was senior campaign adviser at New Politics, and is a Seth Moulton alum. — Tim Mulvey and Randolph Bell are joining Dentons Global Advisors as partners. Mulvey most recently was comms director for the House Jan. 6 committee. Bell most recently was VP for international government affairs for Commonwealth Fusion Systems. MEDIA MOVES — Former Ohio Gov. John Kasich is now an MSNBC/NBC contributor. … David Martosko, who founded the Daily Mail’s D.C. bureau, has joined WETA-FM as a classical music radio host. (He was an opera and symphony conductor in his 20s.) NEW NOMINEES — The White House announced several new nominations, including Nisha Biswal as deputy CEO of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, Fara Damelin as inspector general of the FCC, Joel Ehrendreich as ambassador to Palau and Kara McDonald as ambassador to Lithuania. TRANSITIONS — Hera Abbasi is now VP of public policy at Mastercard. She previously was a government and regulatory affairs executive at IBM, and is a State Department and Hill alum. … Reva Price is now a senior adviser at the Raben Group. She previously was director of outreach and senior adviser for then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi. … Jeff Kuckuck is now senior government relations director at the National Cotton Council. He previously was a legislative director for Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), and is an Andy Biggs and Reid Ribble alum. … … The American Clean Power Association is adding Karina Borger as VP of comms and Marty MacKay as VP of conferences and education. Borger previously was comms director for Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska). MacKay previously was president of alliance events and operations for Hosts Global. … Jesse von Stein is now legislative director for Rep. Jim Baird (R-Ind.). He previously was legislative director for the late Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska). HAPPY BIRTHDAY: The Dispatch’s Jonah Goldberg … CNN’s John Berman … WaPo’s Amy Joyce … Progressive Change Campaign Committee’s Adam Green … The Young Turks’ Cenk Uygur … POLITICO’s Beatrice Jin, Danny Clasen and Yesi Chappell ... Melissa Mattoon … Brian Ellner ... Narrative Strategies DC’s Ken Spain … Dan Wilson of Mercury … Andrew Bleeker of Bully Pulpit Interactive … FocusDC’s Matt Gerson … Ross Kyle of Van Scoyoc Associates … Nicole Smith of Miller/Wenhold Capitol Strategies … Dana Martin … Andres Ramirez of Forbes Tate Partners … Andrew Brown … Ellis George Cipollone O’Brien Annaguey’s Fred Fielding … Lynn Hidalgo ... Sharon Castillo … Taylor St. Germain of Reproductive Equity Now … John Mark Kolb of Rep. María Salazar’s (R-Fla.) office … Aaron Hicks (5) Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine. Corrections: Sunday’s Playbook included an incorrect workplace for Carla Frank. Yesterday’s Playbook incorrectly stated that Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.) attended a Kennedy Center event Sunday.
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