Tuesday, March 21, 2023

Introducing our VC exit predictor

Credit Suisse's turbulent end; lessons from the global financial crisis; UBS to swell private market footprint; VC's clean energy bonanza
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The Daily Pitch: VC, PE and M&A
March 21, 2023
The Daily Pitch is powered by PitchBook's industry-defining research and best-in-class data
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Today's Top Stories  
Gain an edge with our new VC exit predictor
Of all the startups, which ones are worth putting time into as an investor? With our new VC exit predictor, answering that question just got easier. The tool uses machine learning and PitchBook data to provide insights into startups' prospects for a successful exit.

Our analyst note lays out how the tool works. Our analysts found that in a backtest of active VC-backed startups as of February 2018, those companies that ranked in the top decile were 3.1x more likely to exit successfully.
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What investors and acquirers can learn from the global financial crisis
Both public and private markets experienced a period of decline during the 2007-2008 global financial crisis. However, corporate M&A and investment activity remained relatively resilient due to factors like record levels of capital on corporate balance sheets and a venture ecosystem that attracted nontraditional participants.

Our analysts compare the global financial crisis to current market conditions and describe the opportunities and benefits of corporate dealmaking in a difficult economic climate. For example, valuation declines have lowered the "entry cost" for corporate acquirers and investors, allowing many to make strategic plays that may have previously been out of reach. Additionally, corporations with more favorable capital structures relative to their competitors may be able to pursue innovation at a quicker pace.
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UBS deal signals the end of Credit Suisse
(Fabrice Coffrini/Getty Images)
Swiss bank Credit Suisse will be taken over by UBS as regulators aim to stem panic in the financial markets.

The 167-year-old institution's collapse was exacerbated by the failure of SVB, but its problems had already been mounting for several years after a string of scandals.
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Credit Suisse deal to expand UBS' private markets footprint
(Daniel Leal/Getty Images)
UBS's announced acquisition of Credit Suisse for 3 billion Swiss francs (about $3.2 billion) puts the financial services powerhouse in position to bolster its private markets business overnight.

The deal is set to create a global wealth manager with $5 trillion in combined AUM, comprising UBS's $3.4 trillion and Credit Suisse’s more than $1.5 trillion.
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VCs spend record-breaking $16.2B on clean energy in 2022
Investors were bullish on clean energy in 2022, raising $16.2 billion to beat 2021's deal value record of $16 billion even as other sectors got swept away by the bear market tide. However, VC deal value and count both dipped year-over-year in Q4. Our Q4 2022 Clean Energy Report dives into the major trends and emerging opportunities in the sector.
  • Total VC dollars raised in clean energy fell 46.5% YoY in Q4 as the market calmed and fuel prices dropped.

  • Renewable-powered batteries are poised for a takeoff. Grid-scale battery development picked up steam in Q4 with two huge deals, a $450 million Series E for TPG-backed Form Energy and $280.5 million Series B for Hithium, backed by ABCI Securities and CCBT Private Equity.

  • Investors are increasingly confident that green hydrogen could be a viable and scalable alternative to fossil fuels, as 2022's energy crisis caused a reckoning for natural gas.
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Recommended Reads
Silicon Valley Bank's collapse means startup founders of color have lost one of their biggest financial havens. [Fortune]

In an uncertain economy, companies post job listings they might not really be trying to fill. [The Wall Street Journal]

Barriers to global commerce that had been torn down are now being re-erected—and not only around Russia. [The Economist]
 
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The Daily Benchmark:
2018 Vintage Global VC Funds
Median IRR
31.84%
Top Quartile IRR
44.10%
1.71x
Median TVPI
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Forbion Capital Fund IV
Blume Ventures Fund III
Vivo Capital Fund IX
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76 Funds in Benchmark »
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VC Deals  
HR startup Rippling has raised a $500 million Series E led by Greenoaks in its push to help startups make payroll after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

Reebelo, which offers a marketplace for refurbished consumer electronics, has raised a $29 million Series A extension led by Cathay Innovation, bringing the round's total to $50 million.

Hospitality specialist Operto Guest Technologies has raised a $25 million Series B led by Centana Growth Partners.

Candela, which makes long-range electric boats, has raised $20 million in a round led by EQT Ventures, Joel Eklund and Svante Nilo Bengtsson.

Cybersecurity startup Aembit has launched with a $16.6 million seed round from Ballistic Ventures and Ten Eleven Ventures.

Tavus has closed a $6.1 million seed round led by Sequoia, TechCrunch reported. The startup uses AI to generate personalized videos for sales and marketing teams.

Berlin's Monite, which offers a processing platform for B2B payments, has raised a $5 million seed round led by Third Prime, according to reports.

Preventative health startup Aera Health has secured €4 million from investors including Korify Capital.

Patch, a startup building co-working spaces in the UK, has raised £3 million. Investors in the round included JamJar Investments, Blue Wire Capital and Triple Point Ventures.
 
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PE Deals  
KKR has agreed to buy a minority stake of 25% to 49% in Sempra Infrastructure's Port Arthur LNG project, an export terminal under development in Texas, for $64 million to $125 million. ConocoPhillips also owns a 30% stake in the project.

Tyree & D'Angelo Partners-backed Western Veterinary Partners, a veterinary support organization, has raised a minority investment from LGT Capital Partners, Hamilton Lane and Apogem Capital.

HASI has committed $30 million to Bioenergy Devco, which is also backed by Newlight Partners, Sagewind Capital and Irradiant Partners. Bioenergy develops facilities that convert food waste to renewable natural gas.

Peak Rock Capital-backed Middle Eastern and Mediterranean food brand owner Ziyad Brothers has acquired New Jersey-based Vintage Food Corp., a distributor of Turkish, Middle Eastern and Eastern European food and beverages.

ATL Partners has formed a new aerospace supplier called LightRidge Solutions, which incorporates the firm's acquisitions of Geost in 2021 and Ophir in 2022.

ICG has acquired a further stake in Ocea Smart Building, which specializes in smart water and heat metering infrastructure, from Crédit Agricole Assurances. The investment, made via ICG's €1.5 billion debut infrastructure fund, gives ICG a 100% stake alongside the management team.
 
Exit & IPOs  
Actis and wind and solar company Mainstream Renewable Power have completed their sale of Lekela Power to Infinity Power, a joint venture between Egypt's Infinity and the United Arab Emirates' Masdar.
 
Fundraising  
Eurazeo has held a further closing of its Transition Infrastructure Fund on around €420 million, reaching 80% of its initial target.

Atlanta-based TTV Capital has closed its Fund VI—its largest raise to date—at $250 million. The fund will invest in early-stage fintech startups.
 
Investors  
Boston-based firm Great Hill Partners has opened a London office to support its investment activity in the UK and Europe. Managing director Drew Loucks will lead the new office.
 
Corporate M&A  
Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking will acquire UK credit specialist AlbaCore Capital via its subsidiary First Sentier as part of the Japanese bank's attempts to diversify its business.
 
Chart of the Day  
"Private debt has surpassed the $200 billion mark for the third consecutive year but fell short of 2021's record pace by 19.7%. That shortfall was fully offset by the enormous growth in fundraising from nontraded business development companies (BDCs) and credit-oriented interval funds marketed to individual investors, which are not found in the call-down universe we draw upon for this report."

Source: PitchBook's 2022 Annual Global Private Debt Report
 
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