Wednesday, February 8, 2023

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Morning Brew

Facet

Good morning. Being the "designated survivor" isn't just the excuse that Neal has used to skip every writers' meeting since August.

It's a US government tradition that's been performed during each State of the Union address since the 1950s. How it works: A lone government official, typically a low-level Cabinet member, rides out the speech in an undisclosed location so that they could continue running the country if something really bad happens at the Capitol.

Last night, the designated survivor was Labor Secretary Marty Walsh (but we all know it should've been Pedro Pascal).

Max Knoblauch, Sam Klebanov, Matty Merritt, Neal Freyman

MARKETS

Nasdaq

12,113.79

S&P

4,164.00

Dow

34,156.69

10-Year

3.677%

Bitcoin

$23,205.60

BBBY

$3.01

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 5:00am ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: Fed Chair Jerome Powell has the power to tank stocks, but also to send them higher—like he did yesterday, when he confirmed that disinflation "has begun." Meanwhile, the Bed Bath & Beyond roller-coaster ride shows no signs of slowing down. The retailer's stock flopped after it secured last-ditch financing to avoid bankruptcy, but shareholders hated the deal because it will dilute their equity.
 

TECH

Bing wants to send Google to Page 2

Microsoft Bing search Francis Scialabba

After spending years as a punchline, Microsoft's Bing search engine has completed its Rocky training montage and is ready to get back in the ring. Yesterday, Microsoft announced an AI-powered revamp of Bing that's expected to reignite a dormant battle with Google over its search dominance.

During a surprise event, Microsoft said that the tech behind OpenAI's ChatGPT would be integrated into Bing, resulting in a new breed of search engine where answers will be more direct and conversational, as opposed to the typical ad-packed list of links.

  • Bing will run on newer and more powerful software than ChatGPT, and will provide faster, more humanlike replies, Microsoft said.
  • Will those replies be accurate? Time will tell.

Google has been preparing for this. In a Minority Report-esque pre-response to the Bing news, Google on Monday announced plans to integrate its vaunted search engine with its own ChatGPT rival called Bard, which will be made available to the public in the coming weeks. Google's been nervously watching ChatGPT since the chatbot's release, when it declared the tech a "code red" for Google's search business.

The race is on

The two tech behemoths are scrambling to capitalize on so-called "generative AI," with Microsoft motivated by an opportunity to claw back some of Google Search's market share (~93%), and Google motivated to hold on tight. And, given changing search behavior—younger internet users are increasingly using TikTok and Instagram for recommendations—both companies know that evolution is necessary.

For some sectors, the economic impact of an AI-first era of search could be as rough as ChatGPT's attempts to write a funny cartoon. Publishers would likely lose out on referral clicks, given AI's direct answers, and the tech giants themselves would need to rethink how their own ad services work.

But Microsoft and Google think the ultimate promise of AI vastly outweighs short-term hiccups, and both are pouring gobs of money into boosting their AI capabilities. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella told CNBC, "I have not seen something like this since I would say 2007–2008, when the cloud was just first coming out."—MK

        

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WORLD

Tour de headlines

Preside Biden at the State of the Union Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images

He's in love with the State of U: In his fiesty State of the Union address, President Biden touted the booming jobs market, disinflation over the last six months, and new laws such as the Inflation Reduction Act as symbols of the "progress and resilience" of the United States. Though he stressed bipartisanship throughout the speech, he was frequently heckled by some Republicans…and seemed to relish the back-and-forth.

Other SOTU notes: While Biden spent most of his speech recapping his accomplishments, he proposed several agenda items for the remainder of his term, including expanding the $35 price cap on insulin to everyone (not only those on Medicare) and cracking down on excessive fees for things like concert tickets and hotels. As for the spy balloon drama that hovered over the speech, Biden addressed it indirectly, saying if China threatens US sovereignty, "we will act to protect our country. And we did."

Zoom hits its limit. The videoconferencing company that became a household name during Covid is cutting 15% of its workforce, or about 1,300 people. CEO Eric Yuan said the "uncertainty of the global economy" was partly to blame, but he also admitted the company "made mistakes." To own up to those mistakes, Yuan said he's reducing his upcoming fiscal year salary by 98% and ditching his 2023 corporate bonus. Zoom shares are down about 85% from their 2020 highs.

SCIENCE

There's no way to predict an earthquake

Birds perched on seismic waves Illustration: Dianna "Mick" McDougall, Source: Getty Images

Two major earthquakes that struck parts of Turkey and Syria on Monday have left more than 7,800 people dead and many more injured. Search efforts for survivors that may still be trapped under collapsed structures are ongoing—but time is running out.

The suddenness of the earthquakes has raised questions over whether anyone could have seen it coming. After all, we've long relied on meteorologists for a heads-up on other natural disasters, like hurricanes.

Seismologists say it can't be done

According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), scientists have failed to predict a single major earthquake. Statistical models can determine the probability of one occurring in a specific region within a few years, but they're useless for informing folks about when they should evacuate their homes.

The USGS warns that anyone who claims to know when an earthquake is coming based on signs like animal behavior, cloud patterns, or bodily aches is...wrong.

Are there any solutions? Not many. Systems like ShakeAlert (used on the US West Coast) can detect seismic activity at the start of an earthquake and sometimes send out a message to people's devices up to a minute before they're hit with heavy shaking.

Looking ahead…scientists are attempting to harness technology to get closer to knowing the likely time and location of potential quakes. However, progress will be incremental, and some experts worry that false alarms may erode public trust in their predictions.—SK

        

FROM THE CREW

The Crew

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WORK

The Commutist Manifesto

Scene from La La Land of people dancing on their cars La La Land/Lionsgate

Like going to bed without watching three episodes of Gilmore Girls, your work commute is good for your brain, a new study claims.

In a paper published in the Organizational Psychology Review, researchers propose that a daily commute to and from work offers people a "liminal space" in which they can recharge after work and "mentally switch gears" to their home lives—something the commute to your couch can't provide.

But before you dust off your travel mug…the researchers slapped a big asterisk on their study: Not all commutes are created equal.

While some study participants reported that lengthier travel made them more relaxed and helped them detach from work, some stressful commutes only compounded problems that began at the office. It turns out that staring at the same bumper sticker to a symphony of blaring horns can really take you out of your post-work zen zone.

Big picture: Despite the potential benefits of commuting, Americans might not race back to the office parking garage if they don't have to. When US workers shifted to WFH during the pandemic, they got a cumulative ~60 million hours of their lives back, according to the New York Fed.—MM

        

GRAB BAG

Key performance indicators

Lebron James Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Stat: Way past your bedtime, LeBron James became the NBA's all-time leading scorer, topping Kareem Abdul-Jabbar with his 38,388th career point. LeBron has accumulated his points not by pure domination, but by consistency. He has led the league in scoring for only one season, but has scored at least 10 points in 1,140 consecutive games (the longest such streak in NBA history).

Quote: "It will have a Hyman Roth death, not a Sonny Corleone death."

That's how Bill Simmons responded to the question of whether legacy TV still be around in three years. If you don't speak The Godfather, here's more context: Simmons, the founder of The Ringer, predicts that traditional TV won't completely die out, but will instead limp along much like terrestrial radio has. Not all media experts agree with him—read their thoughts on TV's future here.

Read: The astonishing transformation of Austin, TX. (New Yorker)

NEWS

What else is brewing

  • The US Navy released the first photos of its sailors recovering debris from the suspected Chinese spy balloon that was shot down over the Atlantic Ocean.
  • Disney has cut an episode of The Simpsons from its streaming service in Hong Kong that mentioned "forced labor camps" in China.
  • Labor Secretary Marty Walsh, last night's designated survivor, is reportedly leaving the Biden administration to become the head of the NHL Players' Association.
  • LIV Golf, the Saudi-backed competitor to the PGA Tour, is generating virtually zero revenue, court documents showed.

RECS

Wednesday to-do list

Life tip: Here are eight techniques for evaluating character.

Dream interpreter: This AI will explain what's going on in your unconscious mind.

Art advice: How to paint like Hayao Miyazaki.

Word of the day: "skeuomorph." Learn what it is and how it shows up in your daily life.

An MVP pick: With stats like a $0 annual fee, 0% balance transfers for 21 months, and a lengthy 0% intro APR on purchases, this card deserves all the accolades. Apply here.*

'Tis the (tax) season: It's the time of year for filing + maxing those refunds. The Money with Katie Show, presented by TaxAct, can guide you through this year's festivities. Listen here.*

*This is sponsored advertising content.

GAMES

The puzzle section

Word Search: In today's puzzle, you have to identify the NFL teams by their gleaming Super Bowl rings. Play it here.

[Bleeped out] trivia

South Park returns for its 26th season tonight. And while the 1999 South Park movie was found to have the most swear words of any animated film, it's not even close to cracking the Top 10 for all movies with the most swear words.

Can you name three of the five movies with the most swear words?

Bonus question: Which actor has uttered the most swears in movies they've starred in?

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AROUND THE BREW

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Interested in learning how CFOs shift their strategies in response to surprises? Today is your last chance to sign up for our CFO Brew virtual event.

ANSWER

Top five movies with the most swear words: 1) The Wolf of Wall Street 2) Uncut Gems 3) Casino 4) Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back 5) Fury.

And the actor who's said the most swears in films is Jonah Hill (376 total, and 22.9 per 1,000 words).

Source

✢ A Note From Facet

Facet Wealth, Inc. ("Facet") is an SEC Registered Investment Advisor headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland. This is not an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to purchase securities. This is not investment, financial, legal, or tax advice.

         

Written by Neal Freyman, Max Knoblauch, Matty Merritt, and Sam Klebanov

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