| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg | | 
Smoke rises from an oil depot struck by Turkish air forces near the town of Qamishli, Syria, Wednesday, Nov. 23, 2022. | Baderkhan Ahmad/AP Photo | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt PROGRAMMING NOTE: We'll be off next week for the holidays but back to our normal schedule on Tuesday, Jan. 3. As the world watches to see if Turkey really invades Syria, the Islamic State is awaiting its chance at a resurgence there. And experts warn the United States' efforts to keep the terrorist group at bay could unravel. Working with the Syrian Democratic Forces and an alliance of Kurdish and Arab militias, U.S. troops have captured thousands of ISIS fighters and locked them up in makeshift prisons. It's an ongoing battle to subdue the group, as showcased by U.S. helicopter raids in recent weeks that led to the death of two ISIS leaders and the arrest of six militants. While it's unlikely that a Turkish invasion would prompt U.S. troops to immediately withdraw from the region, experts say it could pressure them to leave down the line, leading to a potential counterterrorism catastrophe and "extremely, extremely bad news" for the United States. "If we leave, that is going to be a free-for-all that will represent everybody's worst nightmare in terms of counterterrorism ramifications," CHARLES LISTER, director of the Syria and Countering Terrorism and Extremism programs at the Middle East Institute, told NatSec Daily. "ISIS will be watching all of this with glee." In November, Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN vowed to launch a ground operation on U.S.-backed Kurdish forces in northern Syria, claiming they were responsible for a deadly terrorist attack the week prior. Kurdish groups have denied responsibility for the attack. There hasn't been much movement on Erdoğan's threat, leaving observers wondering if he'll actually follow through on the incursion. Though it's impossible to pin down an exact date, "my gut tells me one is going to happen… in perhaps weeks, maybe a couple months," Lister said. Some analysts have already advocated for a complete withdrawal of troops, even before the threat of a ground invasion, claiming boots on the ground are no longer necessary to stave off ISIS, and fly-over operations could suffice. Negotiating with Syria might not be necessary to conduct fly-over operations because the U.S. has "a NATO ally to the north of these areas, and we have forces in Iraq to the east of these areas," RICH OUTZEN, a fellow at the Atlantic Council, told NatSec Daily. Counterterrorism operations could likely continue, he said, but the U.S. is already struggling to keep ISIS under control. Not to mention, the SDF has already suggested that it'd pivot away from counterterrorism operations in the event of a ground operation. Others think that's impossible, claiming the United States would have no choice but to negotiate with Damascus to conduct fly-overs. "Quite honestly, that's a figment of people's imaginations," Lister said of negotiating with the Syrian regime. "It is never ever, ever going to happen. So we're either on the ground doing this, or we're out and not doing anything." Given past attempts to free fighters from prisons, it's likely that ISIS would attempt to take advantage of an incursion to try again. That's a concern U.S. officials have voiced for months as they worry an invasion could "tilt the balance and potentially enable an ISIS resurgence," said TIMOTHY ALAN BETTS, acting coordinator for Counterterrorism and Acting Special Envoy for the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS. A ground operation would give the terrorist organization the opportunity to regain power, though a return to its strongest years in 2014 and 2016 are unlikely, CHARLIE WINTER, director of research at ExTrac, an AI-powered threat intelligence system, wrote in War On The Rocks. Winter warned that the U.S. should do everything in its power to lessen the odds of a Turkish ground operation: "Given the organization's weakened (yet resilient) state, their optimism may well be misplaced," he wrote, referring to ISIS members' hope for an invasion in online forums in recent weeks. "Still, it would be better for the world not to find out."
| | | UKRAINIANS MAY TRAIN IN U.S.: Military leaders are considering training Ukrainian troops to use the Patriot missile defense system at a base in the United States, two Defense Department officials told our own LARA SELIGMAN. Since Russia's February invasion, the Ukrainian armed forces have completed training on a host of different NATO-provided weapons systems, including the U.S.-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, in eastern Europe, Germany and the United Kingdom. But no training has been done in the United States. The news that the Defense Department is considering conducting the training stateside comes a day after the Biden administration announced that it would provide a Patriot battery to Ukraine to help defend against Russian attacks. No final decision has been made on where the training will take place, the officials said. The department is discussing whether to conduct all or part of that training in the United States versus a third-party country, such as a U.S. base in Europe, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive conversations. RUSSIA'S UNRELENTING ATTACKS: More than 60 rocket, artillery and mortar fire attacks were launched by Russian troops over the last day as Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY returned to the country, the Associated Press' EDUARDO CASTILLO reports. At least five civilians were killed and 18 others injured in the attacks, Ukrainians officials said. Missiles destroyed a boarding school in an eastern city that served as the local Ukrainian army's headquarters, while shelling damaged a hospital in a northeastern city. In the eastern city of Kharkiv, Ukrainian authorities have amassed a weapons graveyard with more than 1,000 missiles fired by Russia. One day, they hope, information gathered from the weapons could be used to help provide information for any prosecution case against Russians authorities and soldiers. LOOKING AHEAD: Of course, everyone will be watching Ukraine going into the new year. But today, our friend RYAN HEATH over Global Insider put together a roundup of five countries with upcoming elections that could shape the year: Argentina, Nigeria, Pakistan, Thailand and Turkey each teeter on the edge of democracy: sometimes wildly swinging between strongmen or military leaders and elected governments; the burden of corruption often also casts a shadow. In Turkey, having engineered a shift to a presidential system, Erdoğan will face his toughest test yet in 2023 and is already working to jail opponents. In Pakistan, former Prime Minister IMRAN KHAN is trying to claw his way back to power. In Argentina, Vice President CRISTINA FERNÁNDEZ DE KIRCHNER, has been barred from running via a corruption conviction. Both survived assassination attempts this year. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the global national security and foreign policy scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we're featuring HEATHER CONLEY, the president of the German Marshall Fund. She told us her preferred libation these days, coincidentally, is an old fashioned — the favorite of former Secretary of State GEORGE MARSHALL. "As president of an organization that is a living memorial to the Marshall Plan, I will be raising my old fashioned to General Marshall on New Year's Eve this year in honor of his 142nd birthday," she said. Of course, the drink is best made by her husband at home. But when she's in Pennsylvania, Conley makes sure to stop by 1794 The Whiskey Rebellion in Carlisle. Back in Washington, you can occasionally find her with colleagues at the Lyle Hotel, steps from the office, with an old fashioned in hand. Happy holidays, Heather! IT'S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO VACATION: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @ericgeller, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today's military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | KIM'S MISSILES KEEP COMIN': North Korea launched two short-range ballistic missiles toward its eastern waters today in possible retaliation for aircraft drills conducted by the U.,S. and South Korea earlier in the week, the Associated Press' HYUNG-JIN KIM reports. It wasn't immediately clear what kind of missiles Pyongyang launched. But one of the missiles detected by Japan may have flown at an "irregular" trajectory, Japanese Vice Defense Minister TOSHIRO INO said. That could indicate one of the regime's highly maneuverable, nuclear-capable KN-23 missiles. North Korea viewed joint military exercises conducted by the U.S. and South Korea on Tuesday as an invasion rehearsal, while the two allies characterize them as a defensive action. After all, North Korea has launched dozens of rocket launches this year, and, recently, claimed to have performed tests needed to acquire a spy satellite and a more mobile intercontinental ballistic missile.
| | | TIKTOK PULLED JOURNALISTS' DATA: TikTok's parent company ByteDance accessed the data of two journalists and other users in an attempt to track down company leaks, our own CLOTHILDE GOUJARD reports. ByteDance employees in China and the U.S. inappropriately pulled data, including the IP addresses, of journalists from BuzzFeed News and the Financial Times, along with people they had connected with via TikTok, according to an internal investigation. ByteDance had tried unsuccessfully to identify staff who had shared internal company documents with the reporters. The news is likely to add to security concerns among U.S. lawmakers about the popular social media company's Chinese ownership. In the omnibus spending bill, Congress banned TikTok from U.S. federal government phones over fears about privacy and national security in the spending bill for the upcoming fiscal year. Now, it awaits President JOE BIDEN's signature.
| | | JAPAN SETS ASIDE $2 BILLION FOR TOMAHAWKS: Japan designated more than $2 billion to buy and deploy U.S. Tomahawk missiles on its naval destroyers, The Wall Street Journal's ALASTAIR GALE and CHIEKO TSUNEOKA report. The imminent purchase, part of the country's record $51.4 billion defense budget, could secure hundreds of the missiles in an effort to deter Chinese and North Korean aggression. The Japan Times reported on the potential deal in late November, noting Prime Minister FUMIO KISHIDA and Biden had discussed the purchase of the Tomahawks during a bilateral meeting in Cambodia on Nov. 13. More than $1.6 billion was earmarked to buy the missiles, with another $832 million for technical work and training. They're expected to be deployed in about three years, Japan's defense ministry said. Tomahawk missiles usually cost around $1.7 million each, though the defense ministry said it would negotiate with the U.S. on the price. The Pentagon and manufacturer Raytheon declined to comment on any potential Tomahawk sales. PROBLEM SOLVING: The Army is preparing to test a new AI-enabled technology developed by Vanderbilt University to keep soldiers connected when their radios are jammed, our own LEE HUDSON reports (for Pro!). The Advanced Dynamic Spectrum Radio will be used by the 101st Airborne Division in Romania, Jay Harrison, who oversees Vanderbilt's national security research. The radio has been paired with the Army's Pathfinder program, which is intended to take researchers out of the lab to solve problems that soldiers are encountering in the field.
| | | NDAA YES, VACCINES NO: Biden killed his own vaccine mandate for troops while signing the sprawling National Defense Authorization Act on Friday, our own CONNOR O'BRIEN reports. Though the commander-in-chief approved the legislation, the administration has aired grievances with Congress over a variety of provisions. It marked the 62nd year a defense bill has been enacted — a streak the administration did not want to break. The final deal authorizes $847 billion in national defense funding, a $45 billion hike from Biden's request. The Pentagon receives $817 billion of that, and $30 billion goes to nuclear weapons programs under the Energy Department. The grand total comes to $858 billion when factoring in accounts that don't normally fall under the armed services committees' jurisdiction. Congress must still enact funding legislation for the budget boost to become a reality, which is expected soon. The Senate on Thursday approved an omnibus government funding package that matches the government funding levels laid out in the defense bill. The House passed the measure on Friday, and Biden is expected to sign the spending deal in the coming days.
| | | |   | | | | | | CHINA SAYS STOP BULLYING US: Chinese Foreign Minister WANG YI told Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN on Thursday that the U.S. needs to stop its "old routine of unilateral bullying," Reuters' BERNARD ORR reports. The comment was in reference to the U.S. attempting to suppress China's efforts to conquer the self-governing Taiwan, which China considers as its own territory. His remarks echoed a talk between Chinese President XI JINPING and Biden at the G-20 conference in November, during which Xi said the Taiwan issue is the "first red line" that must not be crossed. In the call with Blinken, the foreign minister said the U.S. must not constantly challenge China's red line in a "salami-slicing" way, referring to the method of using small actions to achieve a much larger result that would be difficult to achieve with one large action.
| | | — F. GREGORY GAUSE III, Foreign Affairs: The Kingdom and the Power — STEPHEN WALT, Foreign Policy: A Realist Guide to World Peace — ANNE APPLEBAUM, The Atlantic: The Brutal Alternate World in Which the U.S. Abandoned Ukraine
| | | — Your host is hunkered down in snowy Massachusetts, Alex is living large on the West Coast and Lawrence is holding down the fort in Maryland for the holidays. Where are you tuning in from? If it's somewhere warm, I don't want to hear about it. Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is building a makeshift prison for Matt and Alex. We also thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who will free us in no time. And a special thanks to all those in the Natsec Daily family, whose appreciation and readership of this newsletter inspires us to put it out every day (and keeps us employed). Seriously, we couldn't do it without you all. Happy holidays from Alex, Matt and Lawrence!
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today's military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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