Saturday, December 10, 2022

☕ Going it alone

Individual traders are having a tough year...
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Morning Brew

The Ascent

Good morning. Yesterday, a glorious day of World Cup soccer was marred by tragedy.

Journalist Grant Wahl, 48, died after collapsing while he was covering the Argentina–Netherlands match. One of the most prominent American soccer reporters, Wahl was instrumental in bringing the sport to US audiences and was a vocal promoter of the women's game. Earlier in the tournament, he said he was temporarily detained after attempting to enter the US–Wales match while wearing a shirt with a rainbow design to support LGBTQ rights.

Wahl had said he wasn't feeling well during the World Cup, and a cold had "turned into something more severe" last Saturday.

This story is developing...

Neal Freyman, Sam Klebanov, Matty Merritt, Abby Rubenstein, Max Knoblauch

MARKETS

Nasdaq

11,004.62

S&P

3,934.38

Dow

33,476.46

10-Year

3.584%

Bitcoin

$17,138.86

Lululemon

$326.39

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 1:00am ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: Stocks finished lower Friday after new economic data dropped showing that wholesale prices rose more than expected last month, a bad sign for the Fed's upcoming rate hike decisions. All three major indexes were down for the week, while the Dow had its worst week since September. Lululemon shares did a downward-facing dog, notching their biggest drop since the start of the pandemic made everyone want to wear stretchy pants all the time. Recent financials have investors worried about its profitability.
 

INVESTING

Individual traders hit a wall this year

Daffy Duck repeatedly crashing into a tree Looney Tunes/Warner Bros.

This year, legions of individual traders have come to the realization that, no, they aren't better investors than Warren Buffett. Or even your dad's friend Bill who only buys mutual funds.

Investment portfolios owned by individual investors have lost a combined $350 billion this year, Bloomberg reports. The average retail trader's portfolio is down 30% in 2022, compared to the S&P's 17% loss, per Vanda Research. Some estimates put the damage as even worse than that: JPMorgan calculates that retail traders are down 38% this year.

As they've watched their portfolios crumble further than SBF's credibility, these traders aren't trading nearly as much as they did during peak Covid.

  • At the apex of the meme stock craze in Q1 2021, Charles Schwab was handling 8.4 million daily average trades. In Q3 of this year, it recorded 5.5 million.
  • Robinhood, both an enabler and the villain of the individual trader movement, shed 1.8 million users between Q2 and Q3 this year.

So what happened?

Individual investors piled into a specific set of stocks during the height of the pandemic, and those stocks in particular are getting rocked by shifting trends and the Fed's rate hikes. Just consider that Tesla, by itself, accounts for ~10% of the average active retail trader's portfolio. So as the stock plunged ~55% this year, it wiped out $78 billion in value for retail investors, per Vanda.

As for meme stocks? . Good luck trying to send a struggling company to the moon these days. GameStop is down nearly 41% this year, and after its dud of an earnings report this week one analyst wrote that "GameStop's turnaround plan has proven fruitless so far," specifically citing the poor performance of its NFT marketplace.

Big picture: With retail traders riding the bench during the market downturn, the companies that rely on them for revenue are having to switch up their tactics. This week, Robinhood introduced retirement accounts (traditional or Roth IRAs) with a 1% match to lure back users. It may not be a flashy product, but as investors who got burned this year have realized, there are worse things than being boring.—NF

        

TOGETHER WITH THE ASCENT

These credit card perks

The Ascent

If we ranked different types of perks, company-provided pizza and office ping-pong tables probably wouldn't make it very far up the list. But some that would make it up the ranks? These credit card rewards:

  • 0% interest until 2024 on both purchases and balance transfers
  • up to 5% cash back on rotating categories you'll actually use
  • no annual fee

Ya don't see 0% interest until 2024 and up to 5% cash back in the same offer often. Maybe ever. It's like seeing a company that offers a complimentary coffee delivery service and a $5,000 WFH stipend. Un-be-lievable.

Ready to make the most out of these rewards? Apply today.

WORLD

Tour de headlines

Kyrsten Sinema Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Sinema ditches the Dems. Kyrsten Sinema, who had been a Democratic senator from Arizona, left the party to become an independent yesterday, just days after the Democrats secured a narrow 51–49 majority. The move is unlikely to shift the Senate's power balance, though, as Sinema said she won't caucus with the Republicans (and the Democrats' majority already includes two other independent senators). Sinema has always been something of a wild card for the party, and she's up for reelection in 2024—one Arizona Democrat already looks poised to run against her.

China faces chaos after loosening Covid rules. The nation scrapped mass testing and quarantine centers this week, after the strict Covid-prevention measures it had in place for three years took a significant toll on the economy and sparked mass protests. But due to the abrupt rule change, citizens aren't sure what to expect and Covid cases could soon spike. The government reported a drop in new cases yesterday, but it wasn't clear how much of that was due to the end of mass testing.

SBF to talk to Congress, too. Sticking to his MO of not keeping quiet like most people being actively investigated for fraud do, ex-FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried tweeted yesterday that he'll testify at a House Financial Services Committee hearing scheduled for Tuesday on the crypto exchange's implosion. SBF said he would "try to be helpful" and "shed what light I can" on issues like how value might be returned to users, and his "own failings."

INTERNATIONAL

UK strikes again, bigger than it has in a while

Strikers in front Big Ben Francis Scialabba

UK workers are gearing up for the nation's biggest strikes in at least a decade. Nurses, ambulance workers, teachers, public transport workers, postal staff, and border officials are just some of the employees walking off the job, with major protests scheduled for every day but one this month.

The strikers are demanding wage increases amid eye-popping inflation and a cheerless economic outlook. The strikes are bound to further weigh down the British economy, which has already had a rough few months (remember Liz Truss?).

Border personnel will strike in the days around Christmas, prompting officials to warn of disruptions to Brits' holiday travel plans. Strikes in the healthcare sector are fueling anxieties about patient safety, though a recent poll shows the public supports striking nurses.

How the government will respond: Britain's conservative government probably won't go as far as cosplaying the Iron Lady, but Prime Minister Rishi Sunak suggested "tough new laws" against strikers are in the works. It's expected that he'll try to impose minimum service levels requirements, limiting the services that striking workers can withhold. He will have to toe a fine line between making concessions to workers and not fully giving into wage demands in order to avoid burdening taxpayers and exacerbating inflation.—SK

        

HOUSING

A politician was finally relatable without having to make a TikTok

Max Frost Thomas Simonetti/The Washington Post/Getty Images

Florida congressman-elect Maxwell Frost, who will be the first member of Gen Z to serve in Congress, tweeted this week about being denied an apartment in Washington, DC, because of his bad credit.

What happened: Despite telling the apartment rep about his credit problem and being assured everything would be fine, 26-year-old Frost still lost the apartment and his $50 application fee. Frost's credit issue came about because he had to quit his full-time job during the year and a half campaign season leading up to his election, and the debt he incurred damaged his credit.

Luckily for Frost, he will soon have a $174,000 salary to start paying off debt, which will build his credit back up. But the incident highlights two big issues:

  1. The housing market hinges on credit scores. Landlords rely heavily on credit scores—which are often loaded with racial bias and can also be inaccurate, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau—to screen rental candidates.
  2. It's actually difficult for new politicians to secure housing in DC if they aren't swimming in family money. That's something Rep. AOC mentioned back in 2018 when she moved to DC.

Big picture: Median rent has skyrocketed across the US, but especially in DC, where it's currently up $326 from last year to $2,600.—MM

        

TOGETHER WITH PRIMAL KITCHEN

Primal Kitchen

This cooking oil will guac your world. Whether you're whipping up that tried-and-true family recipe or trying your hand at one you recently bookmarked, Primal Kitchen® Avocado Oil is the perfect holiday cooking companion for drizzling, grilling, baking, or air frying. Find Primal Kitchen's premium, high-heat cooking oil in stores nationwide—or take 25% off your first order here.

GRAB BAG

Key performance indicators

DJ Steve Aoki in a space suit Photo Illustration: Dianna "Mick" McDougall, Source: Getty Images

Stat: Japanese billionaire Yusaku Maezawa has handpicked an eight-person crew out of 1 million applicants to bring on the trip that he's paying for around the moon in a not-yet-completed SpaceX Starship rocket. DJ Steve Aoki, K-pop rapper T.O.P., and YouTuber Tim Dodd were among those who made the cut to be part of the first group of private citizens to go beyond low-Earth orbit. But even if you were one of the many who didn't get selected this time, you may not need to become internationally famous or a NASA-level scientist to make it out of atmo someday: Space tourism is expected to grow into a $8.67 billion industry by 2030, per Research and Markets.

Quote: "We aren't refusing to continue this work in the future."

Russian President Vladimir Putin said yesterday that more prisoner swaps might be possible following the exchange of basketball star Brittney Griner for "merchant of death" Viktor Bout, a deal that  disappointed many Americans because it did not also include the release of ex-Marine Paul Whelan. Putin also mentioned that he was "thinking about" formally updating Russia's military doctrine to include the possibility of a preventive nuclear first strike, so it wasn't all sunny news from the Russian leader.

Read: The secret lives of MI6's top female spies. (Financial Times)

CARTOON

Saturday sketch

At a Christmas tree store, a man is trying to sell same day tree loans Max Knoblauch

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • CEO of Penguin Random House Markus Dohle will step down in January, choosing to quit after US regulators blocked the company's $2.2 billion merger with rival Simon & Schuster.
  • Workers at a GM battery plant in Ohio voted to unionize. It's a big win for the United Auto Workers as the industry moves toward electric vehicles.
  • Oil companies might not be so committed to addressing climate change. Documents released by a congressional committee show them doing little to curb emissions despite public promises.
  • Taylor Swift has signed a deal with Searchlight Pictures to direct her first feature-length film based on an original script she's written.

BREW'S BETS

Weekend conversation starters:

Never the same: Super up-close glamour shots of snowflakes.

What to get that friend who never seems to be home? Whether it's for a European vacation or a cross-country road trip, they're always traveling. Here is a list of gifts for the world traveler in your life.

Let's get vulnerable: Learn how highly successful people overcome mental and personal challenges by listening to our Imposters podcast, sponsored by AC+ION™ Ion Charged Alkaline Water. You'll hear raw, honest convos + useful takeaways. Listen here.*

*This is sponsored advertising content.

GAMES

The puzzle section

Brew crossword: The World Cup isn't the only sports event that happens every four years. You'll find out which one we're referring to in today's 15x15 crossword. Play it here.

Open House

Welcome to Open House, the only newsletter section that is brave enough to denounce minimalism. We'll give you a few facts about a listing and you try to guess the price.

Victorian mansion in Cleveland, Ohio.MLS Now

Today's home was built in 1890 and hasn't been on the public market since 1986. It's a 4,257 square-foot Victorian in Cleveland, Ohio, that is worth a fortune in picture frames alone. Amenities include:

  • 4 beds, 3 baths
  • Recently added two-story sitting room
  • Fear of a picture frame falling on you in the tub

How much to be near Skyline Chili?

AROUND THE BREW

Risky business

Risky business Risky Business/Warner Bros.

Taking risks in business can lead to life-changing gain or total disaster. We're offering an inside look into what can turn a bold strategy into success. Download now.

In this episode of Imposters, Jamie Fiore Higgins, a former managing director at Goldman Sachs, tells Alex how she survived the toxic culture at the bank and how she felt imprisoned by her paycheck.

Ready to achieve your financial goals in 2023? Money with Katie is here to help. Her free newsletter covers everything you need to know about money, from budgeting to retirement planning and more.

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ANSWER

$950,000

         

Written by Neal Freyman, Abigail Rubenstein, Sam Klebanov, Matty Merritt, and Max Knoblauch

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