Saturday, December 3, 2022

Axios Pro Rata: A Middle East boom 📈

Plus: Mapping it out | Saturday, December 03, 2022
 
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Axios Pro Rata
By Kia Kokalitcheva · Dec 03, 2022

It's already December! Which means only a couple more Saturdays together before we take a small break for the holidays, then return in January.

  • 👋 Reminder: Feel free to send me tips or comments by replying to this email or on Twitter @imkialikethecar.

Today's Smart Brevity™ count is 494 words, a 2-minute read.

 
 
1 big thing: Middle East IPO train keeps rolling
Illustration of a bell with UAE currency in the background.

Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios

 

The Middle East's boom in initial public offerings is not slowing down, with a new crop of companies — some announced as recently as this week — planning to go public soon.

Why it matters: This is in sharp contrast with the IPO window in the U.S. and Europe, both of which have been snapped shut for most of the year. That even forced the once-determined Instacart and others to push back listings.

The big picture: According to Rudy Saadi, Citigroup's head of MENA Equity Capital Markets, the current blooming of new listings is a result of several factors:

  • a historical under-investment in the region;
  • governments' desire to diversify their economies;
  • regulatory changes welcoming foreign investors;
  • U.S.-pegged (and thus more stable) currencies;
  • strong GDP growth;
  • and inflation lower than the US and Europe.

Saadi also points to payments company Network International's decision to list in London in 2019 as the last sizable company in Dubai to list abroad. Since then, the emirate's regulators have made its exchange more attractive to local companies, as have Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia.

By the numbers: Since the beginning of 2022, 45 companies have gone public on the region's exchanges, raising $17.6 billion in proceeds, per Refinitiv data as of Nov. 24.

  • This is up 62% from 2021's levels of IPO proceeds.

Between the lines: Much of the Middle East's current IPO wave has been to privatize state-owned companies and government related entities. The next phase is expected to come from large family-owned corporations looking to liquidate some of their ownership, Saadi tells Axios.

  • He also expects some local tech companies to start going public.
  • However, their current lack of profits as growth-stage companies means that even with support from regulators (some of which don't allow unprofitable listings) they'll need to work to be at least profitable on an EBITDA basis and get investors in the region to get more comfortable with their growth path and ability to deliver dividends in the long term.

Yes, but: All's not been rosy.

  • For example, most of the newly listed companies on Dubai's stock exchange are now trading below the IPO price, as Bloomberg noted earlier this week.

The bottom line: "We are already in December… and we are still launching IPOs," Saadi says. "It will not pause – you might see issuance at a slower pace [next year] – but it won't stop."

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2. Zooming in: Mapping the region's IPOs
Data: Dealogic; Map: Alice Feng/Axios

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have become major hubs in the Middle East for IPOs, drawing in significantly more business than any other country in the region, according to data compiled by Dealogic.

By the numbers: Total IPO proceeds over the last 12 months as of Nov. 30:

  • Saudi Arabia: $8.453 billion
  • Dubai: $7.548 billion
  • Abu Dhabi: $2.576 billion
  • Kuwait: $323 million
  • Israel: $100 million
  • Egypt: $82 million
  • Morocco: $82 million
  • Tunisia: $23 million
  • Oman: $11 million
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📚 Due Diligence
  • Citi joins Goldman in predicting Gulf IPO boom to run into 2023 (Bloomberg)
  • Saudi stock exchange CEO sees strong IPO pipeline in a busy year (Bloomberg)
  • Saudi Arabia's IPO outlook (PwC)
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A message from RBC Capital Markets

Will volatility in equity markets drive M&A?
 
 

Can market volatility be capitalized? What major factors are impacting deal flow?

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Start listening.

 
 
🧩 Trivia

Question: What company had the largest IPO in the region in history? (Answer at the bottom.)

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🧮 Final Numbers

Chart: Refinitiv; Data as of Nov. 24, 2022.

 
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A message from RBC Capital Markets

How will increasing antitrust scrutiny impact M&A?
 
 

Increasing antitrust scrutiny is extending M&A deal timelines and heightening the need to focus on certainty of closure.

How is Big Tech responding to evolving antitrust regulations? Get the latest insights from RBC's expert bankers on M&A Inflection Points, a limited series podcast.

 

🙏 Thanks for reading! And to Javier E. David and Carolyn DiPaolo for editing. See you on Monday for Pro Rata's weekday programming, and please ask your friends, colleagues and Middle East IPO bankers to sign up.

Trivia answer: Saudi Aramco's late 2019 offering. It initially raised a then-record-breaking $25.6 billion via its IPO, which was later pushed to $29.4 billion after it exercised its "greenshoe option."

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