👀 Dem blame game

Plus: New Hampshire race tightens | Tuesday, November 01, 2022

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Meta   Axios Sneak Peek By Alayna Treene, Hans Nichols and Zachary Basu · Nov 01, 2022 Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 991 words ... 3.5 minutes. ⚡ Situational awareness: The suspect charged with attacking Paul Pelosi was deeply immersed in right-wing online conspiracy theories, his longtime employer told the New York Times.     1 big thing: Dems' tattered coattails From left: Oregon Gov. Kate Brown, California Gov. Gavin Newsom and New York Gov. Kathy Hochul. Photos: Meg Roussos/Bloomberg; Jerod Harris/Vox Media; Stephanie Keith/Bloomberg via Getty Images With one week until the midterms, some Democratic operatives working on House races are already beginning to assign blame in the event their party loses winnable seats, Axios' Andrew Solender reports: The culprit, they say, is blue-state governors dragging down the rest of the ballot. Driving the news: Cook Political Report shifted its ratings in favor of Republicans today in 10 House districts — all in states President Biden won by 15 points or more in 2020. The districts are in New York (three), California (three), Illinois (two), New Jersey (one) and Oregon (one). What we're hearing: "There is a direct correlation between the performance of [New York Gov.] Kathy Hochul and [California Gov.] Gavin Newsom and the effect it's having on House candidates," a Democratic strategist working on House campaigns told Axios. "I think Republicans are noticing this too, especially in New York. They're not even running ads anymore with Pelosi and Biden. They're running ads with Kathy Hochul," the strategist added. "Unless Hochul and Newsom pick it up, we're going to lose House seats." Newsom has been criticized for focusing more on his national aspirations than his safe California re-election, including by picking fights with the Republican governors of Florida and Texas. The strategist also cited Oregon Gov. Kate Brown — who Morning Consult polling suggests is the nation's most unpopular governor — as another drag on the ticket in a state where Democrats have had acute difficulties. Zoom in: Hochul's campaign has come under particular scrutiny as polls show her leading GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin by single digits in a state Democrats routinely win by wide margins. Strategists say her apparent unpreparedness for a highly competitive campaign has had a clear down-ballot effect. "I think that they were caught flat-footed. Everyone I talk to, they're like what the f*ck is going on?" a New York-based Democratic strategist working on House campaigns told Axios, calling her an "absentee candidate" until recent signs of her vulnerability emerged. Another New York-based Democratic strategist said Hochul's "lackluster" campaign is "dragging everyone down." "Instead of nuking Zeldin earlier in the summer ... they let him hang around and define himself and the race and now candidates up and down are dealing with the consequences," the strategist said. The other side: Hochul's campaign pointed to a memo from last week that showed the governor has done more than 65 campaign events during the general election, 47 of which were in September and October. A New York-based strategist not affiliated with Hochul's campaign said it's "100% wrong" to blame her for New York House Democrats' vulnerability, telling Axios: "She is spending a king's ransom to help people, and I don't quite know what else she would've done." The strategist laid the blame solely on a disastrous redistricting process, in which Democrats' attempt to pack Republicans into a handful of seats backfired dramatically. Share this story.     2. 🚨 New Hampshire race tightens Photo: Josh Reynolds for the Washington Post via Getty Images   A new poll from Saint Anselm College finds that New Hampshire's GOP Senate nominee Don Bolduc is statistically tied (48%-47%) with Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan. Why it matters: It's just one poll — and a sizable 3% of likely voters survey remain undecided — but the Republican Party's momentum in the Granite State is unmistakable. The big picture: The Mitch McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund spent millions trying to defeat Bolduc in the GOP primary, believing the MAGA-aligned veteran was too extreme to be competitive in a general election. That view was shared by the Chuck Schumer-aligned Senate Majority PAC, which spent $3.6 million to damage Bolduc's more moderate opponent — a dangerous bet now at risk of backfiring. Former President Trump endorsed Bolduc yesterday, praising him for being a "strong and proud 'Election Denier'" during the primary — but lamenting that the GOP nominee had disavowed some of the conspiracy theories. Reality check: The New Hampshire Senate race remains in Cook Political Report's "likely Democratic" camp for now. 👀 What we're watching: Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, a likely 2024 GOP presidential candidate, will campaign for Bolduc on Monday, after falsely claiming last month that all of the Republicans she's endorsing acknowledge the election was legitimate and fair, Axios' Alayna Treene scoops.     3. 🗣️ Quoted: Wisconsin Republican's permanent pledge Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images   Tim Michels, the Trump-endorsed Republican running to unseat Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers, hinted at his plans for changing the state's election rules at a campaign stop today: "Republicans will never lose another election in Wisconsin after I'm elected governor," Michels vowed, according to the Washington Post. Why it matters: Michels has questioned the results of the 2020 election, pledged to restructure Wisconsin's election commission, and even entertained the impossible prospect of overturning President Biden's victory if he's elected to office. The liberal group American Bridge posted a five-second clip of Michels' comments to Twitter and accused the Republican of saying "the quiet part out loud." A spokesman for Michels told the Post that he was referring to policies like "lower taxes, better schools, uniform election laws and safer communities" that will prompt voters to reward Republicans at the ballot box.     A message from Meta Building more efficient cities will be possible with the metaverse     In the metaverse, urban planners will bring their designs to life and collaborate with engineers, architects and public officials in real time — paving the way for less congested cities. The metaverse may be virtual, but the impact will be real. Learn how Meta is helping build the metaverse.     4. 🔎 Charted: Regulation nation Data: Public Affairs Council; Chart: Axios Visuals Both Democrats and Republicans are more likely to favor stricter regulation of big technology firms than they were just four years ago, Axios' Lachlan Markay writes from Public Affairs Council survey data. Big Tech has made enemies on both sides of the aisle — albeit for largely different reasons — but it's House Republicans in particular who are chomping at the bit to haul CEOs before Congress if they take the majority. Elon Musk's takeover of Twitter, meanwhile, has re-animated many of the partisan divides over Big Tech and free speech that have been brewing over the past four years. Keep reading.     5. 🔮 Tweet du jour: Crystal Ball caution Via Twitter     A message from Meta Students will be able to explore outer space in the metaverse     With the metaverse, students in a classroom will be able to travel to the depths of our galaxy, helping them get up close to the planets and gain a deeper understanding of how our solar system works. The metaverse may be virtual, but the impact will be real. See how Meta is helping build the metaverse.   📬 Thanks for reading tonight. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich. Are you a fan of this email format? 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