Monday, November 28, 2022

A five-week framework for shaking McCarthy

Presented by the Association of American Railroads: A play-by-play preview of the day's congressional news
Nov 28, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Huddle

By Katherine Tully-McManus and Jordain Carney

Presented by

The Association of American Railroads

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, of Calif., speaks at an annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition Saturday, Nov. 19, 2022, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/John Locher)

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) speaks at an annual leadership meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition Saturday, Nov. 19, 2022, in Las Vegas. (Photo by John Locher) | AP

SCOOP: 'CORRUPT BARGAIN' SEASON FOR McCARTHY — As House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy works to lock down the GOP votes he needs to win the speaker's gavel in January, he's getting squeezed from the right on a number of fronts. And he can expect to hear a lot of this phrase: "corrupt bargain."

Jordain got an exclusive early look at a memo that Facts First USA , a nonprofit group co-chaired by former GOP Rep. David Jolly (Fla.) and Democratic strategist Maria Cardona, will start circulating with allies on Monday. The document previews the group's plan for the next five weeks and what it wants to see from congressional Democrats.

"Democrats should undertake a concerted messaging campaign over the next 5 weeks through January 3rd to brand McCarthy's struggling campaign to win the speakership as a 'corrupt bargain' he is striking with ultra MAGA extremists in the Republican caucus to attain the 218 votes he needs to secure the job," writes Facts First President and longtime Democratic activist David Brock.

Where Republicans are going: Brock's group is one of a handful that have sprung up in recent weeks as White House, congressional Democrats and their network of allies gear up for a GOP-controlled House come January. House Republicans are vowing a series of high-profile investigations that will touch on Hunter Biden, Capitol security on Jan. 6, the "origins" of the coronavirus and the inner workings of the FBI and Justice Department, among other topics.

Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), incoming chair of the House Oversight Committee, estimated Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press" that his panel would "investigate between 40 and 50 different things. We have the capacity. We'll have 25 members on the committee, and we're going to have a staff close to 70."

Facts First is homing in on the gavels going to Comer and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who is expected to chair the Judiciary Committee, as a sign of McCarthy's (R-Calif.) plans to turn House oversight into a political weapon. Comer and Jordan joined more than a dozen GOP colleagues for a pre-Thanksgiving update on their investigation into the Biden family — which Brock slams in the memo as an "unhinged rant" — that ended up being the first press conference House Republicans held after winning the majority.

What to watch: The Brock-led group is pushing congressional Democrats and the media to shine a spotlight between now and Jan. 3 on any deals McCarthy may make as he tries to secure 218 votes, describing the California Republican's "corrupt bargain with MAGA" conservatives as empowering them to "run wild with any conspiracy theory investigation or impeachment in exchange for their vote."

That includes McCarthy's pledge to restore Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene's (R-Ga.) committees next year after Democrats yanked her assignments following a series of incendiary comments and actions . (Greene wants a seat on the Oversight Committee, which would put her in the middle of the conference's high-profile investigations, though she's said she hasn't been promised one.) Republicans have told POLITICO that they also expect Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) to be added back to the Oversight Committee.

McCARTHY'S MATH — If the Facts First push wasn't enough of a headache, McCarthy is coming out of the Thanksgiving recess with five on-the-record promises from within his conference to resist his speakership bid. But Rep. Bob Good (Va.) has said he expects at least a dozen colleagues to be hard no's for McCarthy, which has your Huddle host thinking: Who will be next to go public and who will wait in the wings?

McCarthy's conference will be between 220 and 222 strong, which means even losing a handful of votes on the floor for speaker would put him in jeopardy. (But absences and "present" votes could lower the winning threshold from 218 votes.)

McCarthy's open opponents right now are Reps. Good, Ralph Norman (S.C.), Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Matt Gaetz (Fla.) and Matt Rosendale (Mont.).

McCathy's decision to float a possible impeachment of DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas during a pre-holiday trip to the border — a door he first cracked open in April – marked a clear effort to shore up his conservative flank. And as the House Republican conference meets again this week to finish sorting out their own internal rules, more criticism could emerge based on whether McCarthy backs changes proposed by different GOP factions.

Republicans still need to resolve a proposal on banning earmarks after punting it until after Thanksgiving. McCarthy also needs to navigate proposals from Freedom Caucus members and other conservatives that would dilute his ability to shape the Rules Committee, remake the Steering Committee and formally require legislation to have support from a majority of the conference to come to the floor, among other debates.

 

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GOOD MORNING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Monday, Nov. 28, where we wish you a smoother re-entry than this .

WELCOME TO HELL — House Democrats, who have suffered through two years of a tiny majority, navigating caucus infighting and torturous whip counts aren't expecting House Republicans to have much fun (or productivity) in the majority .

Goodbye proxy voting: McCarthy is expected to stick to his pledge to end proxy voting, but that will make managing the House floor a major challenge with every absence throwing legislative action into question. (For reference, see the 50-50 Senate.)

And even the few-vote majority is not guaranteed to last. Just this Congress, six Democrats resigned to take other jobs and Republicans lost four members (including one to felony charges). Six members died: five Republicans and one Democrat.

Is past prologue? Democrats pointed to the fraught recent history of House Republican majorities, where Speakers John Boehner and Paul Ryan faced off against the House Freedom Caucus and took heat from centrists, ending up battered along the way. And those speakers, who watched a farm bill implode on the floor and oversaw three government shutdowns, had much larger majorities than Kevin McCarthy.

"They're going to be fraught with fractures and friction and challenges and apostates. I wish them well in trying to manage that crowd," Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) told Sarah.

 

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MARRIAGE BILL HEADING TO ALTER The Senate is expected to vote this evening to end debate on a substitute amendment to the bipartisan marriage equality bill that narrowly advanced before the Thanksgiving recess with 12 Republican votes to clear a procedural hurdle. Final passage is still ahead.

The bill would ensure that the federal government recognize a same-sex marriage if it was valid in the state where it took place and the couple moved to a state that does not recognize it. That would also apply to interracial marriage.

Some of the GOP backers of the bill, which includes a bipartisan deal to include protections for religious liberty, are getting pushback at home. Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) is under pressure from more than 40 Christian leaders who are asking her to "reverse course" and vote against the bill unless an amendment from Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) is adopted. The Wyoming Pastors Network backs Lee's proposal, which would offer protections for individuals and organizations who hold a belief that marriage is only valid between a man and a woman. More from The Casper Star Tribune.

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) wrote to his colleagues on Sunday to tell them to be prepared for House action on the same-sex marriage legislation once the Senate clears the bill. "We must be prepared to take another vote on that historic bill to send it to the White House," Hoyer wrote. Also on the House agenda, pending Senate action, is legislation to overhaul the electoral count system. Hoyer promised "swift action" on Senate-passed legislation.

A handy guide to state-by-state laws related to same-sex marriage , courtesy of the Congressional Research Service.

Representative-elect Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), left-right, Rep. Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.), and Representative-elect John James (R-Mich.) pose for a selfie outside the U.S. Capitol Nov. 14, 2022.

Reps.-elect Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), Rep. Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.), and John James (R-Mich.) pose for a selfie outside the Capitol at new-member orientation earlier this month. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

SMALL WORLD — Back in 2019, '04 West Point graduates Pat Ryan, a New York Democrat, and John James, a Michigan Republican, re-connected on the sidelines of an Army football game over a similar setback: They had both recently lost congressional bids.

Now, they and fellow '04 graduate Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) are posed to be back in the same class again — this time in the House. Jordain and Olivia dig into their history , as well as other military connections in Congress, where the number of veterans is poised to grow next year with roughly 20 incoming freshmen between the House and Senate.

Couldn't script it: Huddle got some extra insight into the Ryan-James-Hunt history. Ryan and James were closer at West Point, including living in the same barracks. Ryan also tutored James, who described the New York Democrat as a "smart cookie" back in their college days. Meanwhile, James told Jordain that he grew closer to Hunt (despite some rumors out there, they were not West Point roommates) after graduation with the two randomly crossing paths at a restaurant in Australia and then when James' unit helped relieve Hunt's in Iraq.

 

A message from the Association of American Railroads:

Association of American Railroads

 

ICYMI: SENATE DEM LEADERSHIP SHUFFLE Promotions are in store for Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) under proposed changes to Senate Majorite Leader Chuck Schumer's (D-N.Y.) leadership team. The new leadership structure would eliminate the position of assistant leader from the caucus' hierarchy and create a new role titled deputy conference secretary. Catch up on other proposed changes, which Marianne and Burgess reported while most people were preparing their turkey.

QUICK LINKS 

Manchin's side deal on brink as GOP seeks his 2024 ouster , from Alex Bolton at The Hill

Kevin McCarthy could face a floor fight for speaker. That hasn't happened in a century , from Kyle Stewart and Scott Wong at NBC News

Populist House Republicans Picking a Fight With US Business Over 'Woke Capitalism' , from Laura Davidson at Bloomberg

TRANSITIONS 

Justin Goodman, former communications director for Schumer, is joining SKDK as executive vice president.

Tracy Moore will be digital director for Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.). She previously was digital director and press secretary for Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.).

 

GO INSIDE THE MILKEN INSTITUTE FUTURE OF HEALTH SUMMIT: POLITICO is featuring a special edition of our "Future Pulse" newsletter at the 2022 Milken Institute Future of Health Summit from Dec. 6 to 8. The newsletter takes readers inside one of the most influential gatherings of health industry leaders and innovators solving the biggest global health issues to ensure a healthier, more resilient future for all. SUBSCRIBE TODAY TO RECEIVE EXCLUSIVE COVERAGE .

 
 

TODAY IN CONGRESS

The House is out.

The Senate convenes at 3 p.m. to resume consideration of the bipartisan same sex-marriage legislation.

AROUND THE HILL

Quiet until the Senate arrives.

TRIVIA

LAST WEEK'S WINNER: Clem Balanoff correctly answered that President Harry Truman traveled on a rail car called The Ferdinand Magellan during his 1948 whistle stop tour.

TODAY'S QUESTION: Who is the sole veterinarian currently serving in Congress?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to ktm@politico.com.

GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each morning.

Follow Katherine on Twitter @ktullymcmanus

 

A message from the Association of American Railroads:

Today, the average unionized freight rail employee earns $126,000 per year in total compensation that includes best-in-class healthcare coverage and substantial sickness benefits. On top of providing pay and benefits that rank in the top 10% of all U.S. industries, railroads remain committed to being a leader in union jobs. The tentative labor agreements will boost our already excellent wages by a total of 24%, bringing average annual compensation up to a projected $160,000, and will provide employees an average payout of $16,000 once ratified. The negotiated contracts have now been ratified by a majority of railroad unions. See how the agreements reward workers for the vital role they play in America's supply chain and build on railroads' proud tradition of providing stronger compensation packages than comparable industries.

 
 

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