🔮 Upset watch

Plus: Pence blasts Putin apologists | Wednesday, October 19, 2022

Open in app View in browser   Presented By UPS   Axios Sneak Peek By Alayna Treene, Hans Nichols and Zachary Basu · Oct 19, 2022 Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,082 words ... 4 minutes.     1 big thing: Dems fret over Black and Latino vote Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios   Democrats are publicly and privately growing more concerned about their soft support from Black and Latino men, fearing that any marginal move by voters of color toward the GOP — or low turnout — will be decisive in the midterms, Axios' Hans Nichols reports. Why it matters: With Republican candidates banking on big margins among white voters, Democrats need to run up the score with Black and Latino voters to win tight Senate and governor's races in Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania. The big picture: Strategists from both parties are closely watching whether Republicans can replicate — or even improve on — President Trump's 2020 numbers with Latino and Black voters, when he increased his voting share in both groups (though he lost them decisively overall). By the numbers ... Exit polls show that in 2020, Biden won: 87% of Black voters, compared to 12% for Trump (margin of 75%) 65% of Latino voters, compared to 32% for Trump (margin of 33%) But behind those resounding topline figures were warning signs for Democrats: Trump increased his share of Latino and Black voters from 2016 by four points each. Polling from this year's cycle suggests that trend could be accelerating. 78% of Black voters support the generic Democratic ballot, with 10% for Republicans — a 68-point lead, according to September's "Blacktrack" survey from HIT Strategies, a minority-owned public opinion research firm. 54% percent of Latino voters want Democrats to take control of Congress, compared to 33% who prefer Republicans — a 21-point lead, according to an October NBC poll. What they're saying: "Latinos are in Jell-O," said Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Labs, which analyzes Latino voting trends. "Political operatives have done the math and they know they need to compete for voters." "You have Black men and Brown men who are open to shopping at this point," said Cyrus Garrett, who served as the African American political director for the DNC. "We are open to being transactional." "Don't just presume that voters of color are a turnout universe," said Bill Burton, a former Obama official. "We have to treat them as a persuasion universe." Between the lines: There's been a lot of focus on the gender divide among Black voters — especially in the Georgia governor's race, where Democrat Stacey Abrams has proclaimed, "If Black men vote for me, we win." But the more pronounced trend falls along generational lines. Black women favor Democrats by a margin of seven points more than Black men, according to the latest BlackTrack poll. But Black voters over 50 favor Democrats by a 26-point margin compared to their younger counterparts. Share this story.     2. 🇺🇦 Pence blasts GOP's Ukraine divide Data: Quorum; Chart: Jacque Schrag/Axios Vice President Mike Pence broke aggressively with MAGA-aligned Republicans who oppose sending more military aid to Ukraine, declaring there "can be no room in the conservative movement for apologists to" Russian President Vladimir Putin. Why it matters: The Republican Party's internal foreign policy divisions have been laid bare in stark terms this week. One wing is represented by Pence and establishment Republicans mostly serving in the Senate, who have led the way in urging the Biden administration to speed up and diversify its weapon supplies to Ukraine. The other is represented by Trump-allied House Republicans, who GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) acknowledged this week would "refuse to write a blank check to Ukraine" if they retake the majority. What they're saying: "Now, I know there is a rising chorus in our party, including some new voices to our movement, who would have us disengaged with the wider world," Pence said in a speech at the Heritage Foundation. "But appeasement has never worked, ever, in history," he argued, taking a dig at "unprincipled populism." Between the lines: Seven of the 10 members of Congress who have publicly discussed Ukraine the most since the invasion began are Republicans supportive of the war effort, Axios' Andrew Solender reports from data compiled by Quorum. It's an indication that there are still plenty of Republicans — like Pence — who aren't willing to roll over and allow their "America First" colleagues to dominate the party's foreign policy philosophy. Share this graphic.     3. 🔮 Midterms upset watch Photo: Shannon Finney/Getty Images   Sabato's Crystal Ball today highlighted a number of "deep sleeper" races in which the current weird and dynamic midterm environment could produce a major upset — or at least a too-close-for-comfort result for either party. Governor: New York has more congressional battlegrounds than nearly any other state, and a recent Quinnipiac poll showed Gov. Kathy Hochul up just 50%-46% on GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin. Hochul is unlikely to lose barring a collapse of support in deep-blue NYC, but her growing unpopularity could cost Democrats down-ballot in key districts. Senate: Iowa's most respected pollster, Ann Setzer, raised eyebrows over the weekend with figures showing Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley running just three points ahead of Democrat Mike Franken. The 89-year-old Grassley typically outperforms other Iowa Republicans but could be paying an "age penalty" in his bid for an eighth term. House: President Biden carried Pennsylvania's 12th District by 20 points, but the race to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Mike Doyle has a bizarre twist: the Republican nominee is also, coincidentally, named Mike Doyle. Democrats nominated left-wing community organizer Summer Lee in an extremely close primary, but ballot confusion would have to play a significant role for the GOP to pull through.     A message from UPS The best part-time work is a job that works for you     Part-time workers shouldn't have to worry about getting the hours they need. UPS part-time union employees make an average of $18 per hour with 3.5 hours guaranteed every workday, plus low-cost healthcare with no premiums, tuition reimbursement and a pension. Learn how UPS delivers success.     4. 🔎 What Trump knew Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images   A federal judge ordered Trump lawyer John Eastman — the architect of the scheme to overturn the 2020 election — to disclose emails to the House Jan. 6 committee that suggest the former president made claims of voter fraud in sworn legal documents that he knew were false. Why it matters: The judge determined the emails — which are sure to end up in the Jan. 6 committee's final report — are not protected by attorney-client privilege due to a "crime-fraud exception." The emails show that President Trump knew that the specific numbers of voter fraud were wrong but continued to tout those numbers, both in court and to the public. The Court finds that these emails are sufficiently related to and in furtherance of a conspiracy to defraud the United States.     5. 🛢️ Parting shot Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images President Biden waved off criticism about the timing of his release of 15 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help bring down energy prices, telling reporters: "It's not politically motivated at all."     A message from UPS UPS delivers careers     UPS has one of the strongest and longest-standing promote-from-within cultures of any company in America. An example: Last year, more than 14,000 part-time employees advanced to full-time careers in the company. Learn how UPS delivers careers.   📬 Thanks for reading tonight. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich. Are you a fan of this email format? It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 300 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. Change your preferences or unsubscribe here.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Axios in your inbox.   Follow Axios on social media: