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| Presented By Meta |
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| Axios AM |
| By Mike Allen · Oct 19, 2022 |
| 🐪 Happy Wednesday. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,198 words ... 4½ minutes. Edited by Noah Bressner. |
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| 1 big thing: COVID baby boom |
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| Illustration: Natalie Peeples/Axios |
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| Remote work likely contributed to a mini-baby boom in the U.S. last year — a reversal of a years-long decline in the birth rate, Axios' Emily Peck writes from a working paper published by three economists this week. - Why it matters: It's surprising. Economists predicted a crash in birth rates at the outset of the pandemic. The quick economic recovery and the rise of remote work may have changed the trajectory.
The findings suggest that workplace flexibility might be one solution to the long-term issue of falling birth rates — a possible driver of declining economic growth — seen across richer countries. - "It's the first recession where we actually see birth rates go up," said Hannes Schwandt, a professor at Northwestern University, who co-authored the paper with Martha Bailey of UCLA and Janet Currie of Princeton.
🧠 What's happening: The CDC released preliminary data on 2021 birth rates earlier this year, and found a small increase. The researchers of the new paper dug deeper. - They were able to further parse new restricted-use microdata from the CDC and look at births to U.S.-born mothers — compared with births to foreign-born mothers.
They found that the birth rate for U.S. mothers increased by 6.2% relative to the 2015-2019 trend line — and that the pandemic led to a net increase in births for U.S.-born mothers of around 46,000 children. - They also discovered that a widely publicized drop in fertility rates in 2020 — agonized over in the press — was largely due to a sharp decline in births to foreign-born women, who were blocked from entering the country.
Between the lines: The increase in birth rates was more pronounced for first-time mothers and college-educated women. Women with less education saw continuing declines. - Those with more education saw their financial prospects soar in 2021 and the back half of 2020, due to rising stock and housing markets — making it a good time to have a baby, economically at least.
- Much of that cohort was able to work from home.
👀 What we're watching: The researchers looked at birth data from California in 2022 and found that the uptick there has continued — suggesting the pandemic changed the trajectory of fertility in the U.S. longer-term. - "The pandemic baby dividend might keep paying," said Schwandt.
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| 2. ⛽ Pumping the midterms |
| President Biden arrives to speak last week about infrastructure investments at the L.A. Metro's Purple (D Line) Extension Transit Project. Photo: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters 20 days before midterms, President Biden this afternoon is scheduled to announce the release of more oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in an effort to bring down gas prices. - Why it matters: The move comes at the close of a campaign season in which high gas prices (national average: $3.85) — while far lower than their June peak — put Dems in political jeopardy.
🔎 The intrigue: An analysis this week by ClearView Energy Partners, an independent energy research firm in Washington, found that two states that could decide control of the Senate — Pennsylvania and Nevada — are especially sensitive to energy prices, AP reports. - Over the past month, gas prices rose above the national average in 18 states that are home to 29 potentially "at risk" House seats.
- Biden heads to Pittsburgh and Philly tomorrow.
🎢 The White House spin, from a fact sheet on the SPR release: "Gas prices fell at the fastest rate in over a decade this summer, with average prices down by about $1.15 per gallon since their peak in June — and just about 30 cents above levels on February 24, when the war in Ukraine began." - "In fact, gas prices have fallen 15 out of the last 18 weeks."
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| 3. 🎧 What Trump told Woodward |
| Screenshot: CNN Former President Trump shared letters from North Korean leader Kim Jong-un with Bob Woodward in a 2019 Oval Office sitdown and warned him not to "say I gave them to you." - When Woodward asked to see the letters sent to Kim, Trump acknowledged that "those are so top secret" — and implied they shouldn't be shared.
- The comments are part of an audiobook, "The Trump Tapes: Bob Woodward's Twenty Interviews with President Donald Trump," out next Tuesday.
Why it matters: Trump's remarks show he was "well aware that the 27 letters exchanged between himself and Kim were classified, despite his repeated claims that none of the documents ... were in that category," The Washington Post writes. - The letters between Trump and Kim are now part of a DOJ investigation into Trump's handling of classified information after he left office.
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| A message from Meta |
| Future surgeons will get hands-on practice in the metaverse |
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| Surgeons will engage in countless hours of additional low-risk practice in the metaverse. The impact: Patients undergoing complex care will know their doctors are as prepared as possible. The metaverse may be virtual, but the impact will be real. See how Meta is helping build the metaverse. |
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| 4. ⚽ 1,000 words |
| Photo: Joan Mateu Parra/AP Neymar Jr. of Brazil, one of the globe's biggest soccer stars, winks as he leaves court yesterday in Barcelona, Spain, where he testified in a corruption trial in which he faces the threat of a five-year jail term. - Neymar, 30, said he didn't participate in negotiations over his transfer to the Spanish club Barcelona in 2013: "My father always took care of it and always will. I sign everything he tells me to sign." (Reuters)
Neymar testified just two days after scoring the winning goal in Paris Saint-Germain's victory over Marseille in the French league — and a month before he plays in the World Cup, which begins Nov. 20 in Qatar. |
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| 5. 📊 Poll of the day |
| People line up Monday at the Citizens Service Center in Columbus, Ga., on the state's first day of early voting for midterms. Photo: Cheney Orr/Reuters Share of U.S. adults who think democracy is working "extremely" or "very" well, in an AP-NORC poll out today: |
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| 6. First look: Trust in tech erodes |
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| Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios |
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| Trust in the tech sector has declined as Americans increasingly lump social media in with the companies that create hardware and software, Axios' Ina Fried writes from Edelman Trust Barometer data shared first with Axios. - Why it matters: The shifting attitudes mean that confidence in technology is increasingly subject to partisan and economic divides.
Republicans are 16% less trusting of tech than Democrats. |
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| 7. 🎥 Netflix bounceback |
 Data: Yahoo Finance. Chart: Axios Visuals Netflix's stock was up more than 10% in after-hours trading yesterday after the company said it added 2.41 million subscribers vs. the 1 million subscribers it originally forecasted last quarter, Axios' Sara Fischer reports. - Why it matters: "After a challenging first half, we believe we're on a path to reaccelerate growth," the company wrote in a note to investors.
Netflix's stock was down nearly 60% year-to-date heading into its earnings report, following back-to-back quarters of subscriber losses. - But the company has seen gains in the past few weeks after finally unveiling its highly anticipated ad-supported tier, which launches in the U.S. on Nov. 3.
Netflix told investors it expects to add 4.5 million subscribers next quarter — a bullish estimate considering it lost over 1 million subscribers in the first half of the year. - The company credited some of its newer hits — "Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story," and season 4 of "Stranger Things" — for its success last quarter.
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| 8. 🔋 1 car thing: First electric Rolls |
| Photo: Adrian Dennis/AFP via Getty Images 300+ U.S. buyers have made deposits on the $413,000 Rolls-Royce Spectre, the first fully electric motor car from the British ultra-luxury icon, CNBC reports: - "The two-door coupe, which is sleeker than a typical Rolls, has a range of about 320 miles and can go from 0-60 mph in 4.4 seconds."
Photo: Rolls-Royce via Reuters Rolls-Royce says its entire "product portfolio" will be fully electric by the end of 2030. |
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| A message from Meta |
| Building more efficient cities will be possible with the metaverse |
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| In the metaverse, urban planners will bring their designs to life and collaborate with engineers, architects and public officials in real time — paving the way for less congested cities. The metaverse may be virtual, but the impact will be real. Learn how Meta is helping build the metaverse. |
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