Thursday, October 6, 2022

↘️Two Million Reasons Inflation Isn’t Going Away Anytime Soon

Good morning. While financial markets move on every whisper that comes out of a Federal Reserve...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. While financial markets move on every whisper that comes out of a Federal Reserve President, the real world runs on energy. So it's no surprise that the OPEC+ announcement to cut 2 million barrels of oil per day caused oil prices to rise.

However, that also has real-world impacts. For most, that starts at the gas pump. But any thing that's delivered by a motor vehicle like a truck, from the groceries on your self to your latest online order will cost more with higher fuel prices for shipping.

That's just one reason why inflation will likely continue running at a faster pace than most are expecting right now. And why investors should continue to be cautious here, especially after the market's quick jump higher in the past few days.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 30,273.87 -0.14%
S&P 3,783.28 -0.20%
NASDAQ 11,148.64 -0.25%
*As of market close
Markets closed lower on Wednesday, but shook off a steep morning loss.
Oil rose 1.5 percent, closing at $87.81 per barrel.
Gold dipped 0.3 percent, last going for about $1,726 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies traded mixed, with Bitcoin at $20,156 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Stick With Businesses with Steady Demand
Some companies are cyclical. Others are not, having steady demand for their products. While the former can have bigger moves during the right part of the cycle, slow-and-steady players tend to reward investors well over time.

Examples include defensive companies like consumer goods. In that orbit are a number of similar industries that tend to have steady demand, even in a slowing economy.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: New York Community Bancorp (NYCB)
Marshall Lux, a director at New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) recently added 6,000 shares. The buy increased his holdings by over 72 percent, and came to a total cost just under $52,000.

This marks the first insider activity at the company since June, when another director picked up 25,000 shares, for just under $232,000. Over the past three years, company insiders have exclusively been buyers of the stock, and all buys have come from company directors.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Tesla Motors (TSLA)
Shares of electric car manufacturer Tesla Motors (TSLA) are down about 40 percent from their highs of last year. One trader sees shares rebounding in the next 11 months.

That's based on the September 2023 $360 calls. With 344 days until expiration, 8,553 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 506, for a 17-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $26.42 to make the bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
OPEC+ to Cut 2 Million Barrels of Oil Production Per Day

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other affiliates have agreed to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day. That's the largest reduction since early 2020 amid the uncertainty of the pandemic. The total cuts may be less than expected as a number of OPEC+ members are currently producing under their current quotas.
WTO Warns on Slowdown in Global Trade

The World Trade Organization expects just a 1 percent increase in global imports and exports in 2023, a significant decline from a previous estimate of 3.4 percent. The move could come as economies around the world continue to slow due to rising energy prices and rising interest rates.
National Debt Tops $31 Trillion

The national debt hit $31.1 trillion this week, based on the latest Treasury Department data. Outstanding debt has risen by $8 trillion since the start of the pandemic in 2020. It's also a $1 trillion increase in the past 8 months. The increase comes as rising interest rates will result in a higher cost to finance that debt.
208,000 Jobs Created in September

Based on early data from ADP, businesses added 208,000 jobs for the month of September. That's slightly higher than the estimate for 200,000 jobs, and is also an increase from the 185,000 jobs added in August. The biggest increases came from trade, transportation, and utilities.
Walmart Adds Fall Sale Event

Walmart (WMT) is adding a "Rollbacks and More" sale from October 10 to 13. That will overlap with the Prime Early Access Sale on the 11th and 12th planned by Amazon (AMZN). Retailers are looking to grab holiday sales significantly earlier than in prior years, and this marks the first time that Amazon will have two sales for Prime members in the same year.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
SLB  6.723%
ILMN  6.544%
TCOM 6.152%
LW 4.591%
NOV 4.584%
BOTTOM
ENPH 9.735%
LUMN 9.266%
VNO 6.104%
SEDG 4.493%
CCL 3.93%

Quote of the Day
After falling more than 9% in September and extending its year-to-date decline to nearly 25% as of Friday's close, we think the S&P 500 was looking oversold. In addition, some of last week's selling pressure may have been driven by quarter-end rebalancing, which has now ended. With sentiment toward equities already very weak, periodic rebounds are to be expected. But markets are likely to stay volatile in the near term, driven primarily by expectations around inflation and policy rates.
- Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, on the market's drop last month, its strong rally to start October, and why we may still be in an overall market downtrend occasionally interrupted by strong rallies.

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