News : The new ballot campaign normal

Thursday, October 6, 2022

The new ballot campaign normal

Oct 06, 2022

THE TIMES THEY ARE A-CHANGIN' — The permanent expansion of mail-in and early in-person voting is upending the campaign calendar, and not just for the candidates.

Ballot question campaigns are shifting their strategies to account for the fact that people are starting to vote, well, now. Just under 20 percent of registered voters, 963,147, had requested mail-in ballots as of 4 p.m. Wednesday, according to the secretary of state's office. More than 53,000 ballots have been mailed out by local clerks, and the secretary of state's office said the first bulk mailing should be sent out by early next week.

Let's look at Question 1: The ballot committee backing the Fair Share Amendment started knocking doors in May and airing ads in mid-August. Fair Share for Massachusetts launched its $10 million general-election ad campaign before the primary "because we know many voters will vote in October," spokesperson Andrew Farnitano told Playbook.

Opponents of the so-called millionaires tax waited to start airing spots until after the state primaries to avoid getting buried in the glut of ads from Massachusetts and New Hampshire office-seekers, spokesperson Dan Cence said on this week's episode of The Horse Race podcast. But they were on TV by Sept. 12.

"It used to be that we would backload" ads in the last few weeks before Election Day, Cence, a veteran of ballot campaigns, said. Now "we spend far more money ... on the front side."

The "no" side has been running behind the "yes" side in public polling. A Suffolk University/Boston Globe/NBC10/Telemundo poll from September showed 56 percent support for and 35 percent opposition to adding a 4 percent surtax on annual income above $1 million and funneling the money toward education and transportation projects. Those numbers are nearly identical to Suffolk's late July survey and a MassINC Polling Group poll from August.

Cence says he's not "overly concerned" — in part because "people default to 'no' on the ballot question when they have any doubts."

But Suffolk polling director David Paleologos sounded a different note: "If those questions aren't polling dead even right now, one side is going to start the November midterm behind just by virtue of where it's polling right now," he told Playbook.

GOOD THURSDAY MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS. Yesterday marked the latest filing deadline for the ballot committees. Here are some of the numbers behind what have become multi-million-dollar campaigns:

— The three committees supporting the Fair Share Amendment have raked in a combined $19 million, including more than $2 million between Sept. 16 and Oct. 1. They've spent $16 million. The Coalition to Stop the Tax Hike Amendment has raised $9.9 million overall and spent $6.7 million.

— The second-most expensive ballot question this year is dental insurance: Supporters of ballot Question 2, which would require dental insurers to spend at least 83 percent of the premiums they collect on dental expenses and quality improvements, not administrative costs, have now hauled in more than $7.9 million. Opponents aren't too far behind at $5.3 million.

— The coalition working to keep the new law granting undocumented immigrants access to driver's licenses is far out-raising the group looking to repeal it. The Vote YES for Work and Family Mobility committee has raised $1.1 million, including more than $900,000 in this latest reporting period. Opponents have raised just $123,554. The Eagle-Tribune's Christian M. Wade has the full campaign finance report rundown.

TODAY — Gov. Charlie Baker is in Utah for former Massachusetts governor and Utah Sen. Mitt Romney's E2 summit. Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito is at LabCentral at 10 a.m. in Cambridge. Rep. Lori Trahan highlights federal funding at 10 a.m. at Westford Town Hall and 11 a.m. at Heywood Hospital. Boston Mayor Michelle Wu is at Boston Arts Academy at 11 a.m. and signs an executive order streamlining affordable housing approvals at 12:45 p.m. at City Hall.

AG Maura Healey and Salem Mayor Kim Driscoll make a campaign visit to UMass Boston at 3 p.m. Healey, Auditor Suzanne Bump and House and Senate Ways and Means Chairs Aaron Michlewitz and Michael Rodrigues host a fundraiser for state Sen. Diana DiZoglio for auditor at 11 a.m. at Carrie Nation in Boston.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Massachusetts Playbook will not publish on Monday, Oct. 10, for Indigenous Peoples Day. I'll be back in your inbox on Tuesday.

Tips? Scoops? Are you getting any mailers? Email photos of them to me: lkashinsky@politico.com.

JOIN NEXT WEDNESDAY FOR A TALK ON U.S.-CHINA AND XI JINPING'S NEW ERA: President Xi Jinping will consolidate control of the ruling Chinese Communist Party later this month by engineering a third term as China's paramount leader, solidifying his rule until at least 2027. Join POLITICO Live for a virtual conversation hosted by Phelim Kine, author of POLITICO's China Watcher newsletter, to unpack what it means for U.S.-China relations. REGISTER HERE.

DATELINE BEACON HILL

— "First Quarter Tax Take Surpasses Record Fiscal 2022 Pace," by Colin A. Young, State House News Service (paywall): "The collectors at the Department of Revenue took in $4.187 billion in tax revenue last month, putting the state's coffers more than 5 percent ahead of the pace that led to a massive surplus in the last budget year, with one quarter of fiscal 2023 now in the books. September receipts came in $194 million or 4.9 percent higher than actual collections from September 2021, and $224 million or 5.7 percent above DOR's September benchmark of $3.963 billion. Through the first quarter, fiscal 2023 collections have totaled about $9.194 billion — $443 million or 5.1 percent ahead of fiscal 2022 collections over the same period of time and $224 million or 2.5 percent higher than DOR's year-to-date benchmark."

— "Report calls big chunk of tax cap funds 'illusory'," by Bruce Mohl, CommonWealth Magazine: "The state is preparing to pay out $1.4 billion in 'illusory' funds under the tax cap law, giving wealthy taxpayers a huge windfall, according to a report from the left-leaning Massachusetts Budget and Policy Center. Officials at the center say they are not accusing state officials of doing anything wrong or making a math error. Instead, they are saying a set of unusual circumstances are combining to inflate the amount of taxes collected in excess of the tax cap, and doing so in a way that shortchanges the state and allows wealthy taxpayers to gain an even bigger benefit than they normally would."

— "Former MassGOP Chair Among Baker's Latest Judicial Nominees," by Chris Lisinski, State House News Service (paywall): "A longtime prosecutor with experience in narcotics and asset forfeiture would join the bench and a former MassGOP chair now serving a clerk magistrate role would move to a new court if Gov. Charlie Baker's latest batch of judicial nominations are accepted. Baker on Wednesday nominated Jeremy Bucci to serve as a Superior Court justice, Kirsten Hughes as clerk magistrate of Boston Municipal Court's South Boston Division, and Christopher Phillips as clerk magistrate of Boston Municipal Court's Brighton Division."

VAX-ACHUSETTS

— "Sleepwalking into a third COVID winter? Neither Healey nor Diehl have shared a plan for the pandemic," by Kay Lazar, Boston Globe: "Levels of coronavirus detected in Eastern Massachusetts waste water, a critical indicator of COVID-19 infections, rose sharply last week. Hospital beds in the state now have more patients with COVID than anytime since early June. And some infectious disease experts are worried we could be in for a third challenging winter with the virus. But neither major party candidate for governor of Massachusetts has articulated what they would do in the event of another COVID surge. Republican candidate Geoff Diehl, however, has focused on what he will not do: mandate vaccines for state employees. … Democrat Maura Healey, the state's attorney general, said she would 'continue to do what the Baker-Polito administration has done in following science, data, and public health and be guided by that.'"

— "After a brief climb, levels of coronavirus waver in Eastern Mass. waste water," by Martin Finucane and Ryan Huddle, Boston Globe: "The levels of virus detected in both sections of the MWRA system peaked last week and have been fluctuating up and down since then, with the northern section ticking up as of Monday and the southern section ticking down."

— "Most private colleges extending mask mandates in face of persistent COVID infections," by Scott Merzbach, Daily Hampshire Gazette: "Anonymous surveys of students and instructors at Amherst College will determine if masks are required to be worn in specific instructional spaces on campus beginning Oct. 17, as other private colleges in Hampshire County extend their indoor mask mandates indefinitely. … While the University of Massachusetts dropped masking requirements in early March, and didn't bring them back for the fall semester, Hampshire College previously announced in August that masks would be required indoors for the entirety of the autumn. For Smith and Mount Holyoke colleges, masks are still being required in most indoor settings, including classrooms and laboratories."

FROM THE HUB

— "Boston city councilors vote to give themselves 20% pay hike — $10,000 more than originally proposed," by Sean Philip Cotter, Boston Herald: "Boston city councilors voted to bump their pay by $10,000 more than the proposed hike, jumping their yearly hauls by $21,500, or more than 20% — raising eyebrows alongside the dough as one union head called it a 'slap in the face.' This will go into effect to start 2024, after next year's council elections — that's when they'll begin to make $125,000 a year as opposed to the $103,500 they make now. This is $10,000 more than the raise to $115,000 that had been on the table in a proposal from the mayor. The approved change also hikes the mayoral pay by double that, as per statute, so whoever's elected mayor of Boston in 2025 will start their term with an annual salary of $250,000, rather than the $207,000 that Mayor Michelle Wu's making now."

— Related-ish: "Should Brockton city councilors nearly double their own salaries to $30K?" by Chris Helms, Brockton Enterprise: "The Brockton City Council would nearly double future councilors' salaries under a proposal working its way through City Hall. Councilors currently make $15,000 a year plus an adjustment based on the Consumer Price Index. They're pulling down $16,504 this fiscal year. On the table is a boost to a flat $30,000 a year."

PLANES, TRAINS AND AUTOMOBILES

— "Senator Warren to hold congressional hearing in Boston about economic cost of T safety failures," by Taylor Dolven, Boston Globe: "Senator Elizabeth Warren will join Senator Ed Markey, Boston Mayor Michelle Wu, Federal Transit Administrator Nuria Fernandez, and Transit Matters Executive Director Jarred Johnson at a congressional subcommittee hearing in Boston on Friday to discuss the economic impact of inadequate maintenance of the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority, according to Warren's office."

— "MBTA admits to ongoing slow zones on Orange Line beyond 7-day 'settling' period," by Bob Seay, GBH News: "When the 30-day Orange Line shutdown ended on Sept. 19, MBTA officials said riders could expect slow zones on parts of the [line] for five to seven days while newly installed track settled. But more than two weeks later, riders complain the train is still slow — especially between North Station and Assembly Square. Adding to riders' frustrations has been a lack of communication from the MBTA about why the slowdowns have continued. On Wednesday, the MBTA finally revealed it had decided to do additional track work on the Orange Line, above and beyond what was originally planned during the shutdown, largely because work crews and construction materials were already in place."

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

YAHD SIGNS AND BUMPAH STICKAHS

— ENDORSEMENT ALERT: Gov. Charlie Baker and Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito have endorsed C.J. Fitzwater for First Essex state representative. Fitzwater is the Republican running to fill the seat vacated by former GOP state Rep. Jim Kelcourse, who Baker nominated to the Parole Board earlier this year.

— "Norfolk Facebook posting prompts election-season public records request," by Tom Reilly, The Sun Chronicle: "Republican state Rep. Shawn Dooley, who has represented the Ninth House District for four terms now, would like to be the state senator for the Norfolk, Worcester and Middlesex district. … Dooley's campaign last month sent out an invitation that wound up — evidently unedited — on the Facebook page of the Norfolk Senior Center. It read in part, 'Please join Rep. Shawn Dooley and the Norfolk Council on Aging for a Luncheon Meet and Greet on October 4, 2022 at 12:30 p.m. Stop by to enjoy a meal, meet your next State Senator…' It's that last sentence that got the attention of Glenn Hill, a Norfolk resident and retired director of information security at Northeastern University. Hill, who also served on the town's board of library trustees, says that language made it sound like the center, a taxpayer-supported entity, was endorsing Dooley's run for office. … After Hill complained to town officials last Tuesday, Sept. 27, the notice was taken down. But Hill says he still wants some answers."

— "Fattman campaign finance case still unresolved," by Bruce Mohl, CommonWealth Magazine: "In April 2021, the state's campaign finance regulator referred evidence to Attorney General Maura Healey that he believed indicated Sen. Ryan Fattman; his wife, Worcester County Register of Probate Stephanie Fattman; and Jim Lyons, the head of the Massachusetts Republican Party, may have violated campaign finance laws. There was a report last fall that a grand jury had been empaneled in the case, but since then nothing has happened. Many political insiders think the case is dead, but there's been no public announcement either way — after nearly 1½ years."

BALLOT BATTLES

— "Should undocumented immigrants in Mass. be able to get driver's licenses? Question 4 puts issue to the voters," by Samantha J. Gross, Boston Globe: "In [a Center for State Policy Analysis at Tufts University] report, [Evan] Horowitz predicted a mix of outcomes from allowing undocumented immigrants to obtain a driver's license. Many people who currently drive illegally would become law-abiding drivers and obtain car insurance; information provided by the immigrants could be used to identify and track people in the future; and the state would receive more revenue from license and registration fees."

FROM THE DELEGATION

— "Lynch, Pressley push for a digital U.S. dollar," by Yasmin Amer, WBUR: "Two members of the Massachusetts congressional delegation, Rep. Stephen Lynch and Rep. Ayanna Pressley, are among the co-sponsors of a bill aimed at bridging the financial digital divide through the creation of a digital U.S. dollar."

THE LOCAL ANGLE

— "Basketball fan, keyboard player, and now Nobel Prize winner in chemistry: Mass. native caps pioneering career with highest honor," by Ryan Cross and Emily Sweeney, Boston Globe: "Carolyn R. Bertozzi was shocked — and groggy — when she received the call from the Nobel Prize committee shortly before 2 a.m. The Lexington native, Harvard University graduate, and daughter of an MIT professor was among three winners of the prize in chemistry awarded Wednesday for methods that enable scientists to unravel the inner workings of cells and led to a breakthrough discovery about the ability of cancers to evade the body's immune defenses."

— "Worcester police LGBTQ liaison officer raises concerns with body camera program," by Kiernan Dunlop, MassLive: "The Worcester Police Department's LGBTQ liaison officer raised concerns about how people in the LGBTQ community may react to its body worn camera program at a Human Rights Commission meeting Monday. Officer Sharon McQueen cited a statistic that 46% of people in the LGBTQ community do not serve openly in their jobs."

HEARD 'ROUND THE BUBBLAH

NEW HORSE RACE ALERT: BALLOT QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS, PART I — Andrew Farnitano of the Yes on 1 campaign and Dan Cence of the No on 1 campaign walk hosts Jennifer Smith and Lisa Kashinsky through the support for and opposition to the Fair Share Amendment. The Boston Globe's Jon Chesto tells host Steve Koczela why there's no opposition to Question 3 to expand alcohol licenses. Subscribe and listen on iTunes and SoundCloud.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY — to Tara DiJulio, Jonny Levenfeld and Gian DeFilippis.

Want to make an impact? POLITICO Massachusetts has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Bay State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you're promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness among this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

Follow us on Twitter