| | | | |  | | By Garrett Ross | | | | 
Early voting is well underway in many states. But Democrats are fretting about their prospects with just weeks to go. | Andrew Harnik/AP Photo | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | THE ELECTION — 16 days left until Election Day. … 7,460,734 early votes already cast as of 10:37 a.m. Sunday, per the United States Elections Project . NYT: "Voters Stick to Pandemic-Era Habits, as Early Turnout Surges," by Nick Corasaniti: "In North Carolina, absentee ballot requests are up 114 percent compared with requests in 2018, according to the board of elections. And in Florida, the total early vote is up 50 percent compared with the early vote in 2018." IN GEORGIA — Per the Georgia secretary of State , turnout through day five of early voting in 2022: 728,278. … At the same point in 2020: 746,100. … And in 2018: 397,701. — "Biden told Georgia voters he was up to the task on voting rights. They aren't all feeling it," by Eugene Daniels in Atlanta — "Early voters in Georgia face obstacles under state's new election law," by The Guardian's Carlisa Johnson IN OHIO — Per the Ohio secretary of State, 943,105 Ohioans had applied to vote early by mail or in person as of Tuesday — about 25,000 more than the same point in 2018. But, but, but: The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that "in the six counties won by President JOE BIDEN, the requests are down 3.9% compared to where they were four years ago." 538 DOWNGRADES DEMS' SENATE ODDS — FiveThirtyEight's latest update ( 8:53 p.m. on Saturday ) now gives Democrats a 55% chance of winning control of the Senate. A week ago, Dems were at 66%. — "Democrats fear the midterm map is slipping away," by WaPo's Michael Scherer NEW NBC POLL — "Less than three weeks before Election Day, voter interest has now reached an all-time high for a midterm election," writes NBC's Mark Murray . Key findings:
- Existential stakes: "[S]ome 80% of Democrats and Republicans believe the political opposition poses a threat that, if not stopped, will destroy America as we know it. … 'threats to democracy' is voters' No. 1 issue for the third-straight NBC News poll."
- Biden approval steady: 45% approve; 52% disapprove.
- Generic ballot is tight: Among registered voters: Dems at 47%, GOP at 46%. Among likely voters: GOP at 48%, Dems at 47%.
- Election denialism is significant: "60% of all voters say that President Biden won legitimately in 2020, compared with 33% (and 65% of Republicans) who say he didn't win legitimately."
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Illustration by Pablo Delcan for POLITICO | DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — Our colleague Nahal Toosi is up with a major investigation into the global diplomacy war playing out between the U.S. and China. The topline takeaway: the U.S. is playing from behind: "'Frustrated and powerless': In fight with China for global influence, diplomacy is America's biggest weakness" We chatted with Nahal about the story to get a sense of what she found through her reporting. Here's what she told us: "Toxic U.S. partisanship is undermining America's ability to compete with China on the diplomatic front, a reality manifested in vacant ambassadorships, a stagnant budget for U.S. diplomacy and a failure to focus that diplomacy on commercial matters. China, meanwhile, is trending in the other direction. It is increasing its resources for diplomacy. It now has more embassies and consulates around the world than the United States. And its diplomats are laser-focused on commercial issues like striking trade deals and offering infrastructure projects, earning them friends in countries that often feel ignored by the United States." "I was struck by how often U.S. officials I interviewed would, instead of defending American diplomacy, trash Chinese diplomacy. It was all about the negatives of the Chinese approach — which are many, from the 'wolf warrior' aggressiveness to the junk they sometimes pass off as infrastructure," Nahal told Playbook. "But if your entire defense is, 'Well, they have problems,' it's not much of a defense. It doesn't take into account the strong possibility that Chinese diplomats will learn from their mistakes and adjust. And it doesn't change the fact that even if China is not the best partner, it at least makes an effort to be a friend to some countries which can barely get any notice from Washington." — "China's Communist Party hands Xi an endless rule for flexing power," by WaPo's Lily Kuo and Christian Shepherd — "How Xi Jinping Remade China in His Image," by NYT's Agnes Chang, Pablo Robles, Vivian Wang and Isabelle Qian: "Mr. Xi has inserted himself into every corner of Chinese life, leaving no room for anointed successors."
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See how Meta is helping build the metaverse. | | | Good Sunday morning, and thanks for reading Playbook. It's 16 days until Election Day — or, about 512 listen-throughs of Taylor Swift's new album, "Midnights." Drop me a line with your favorite track at gross@politico.com , or reach out to the rest of the team: Rachael Bade , Eugene Daniels , Ryan Lizza . SUNDAY BEST … — Rep. LIZ CHENEY (R-Wyo.) on Trump's conduct surrounding the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, on NBC's "Meet the Press": "I think that there are multiple criminal offenses, the committee — I don't want to get in front of the committee — but that we are looking at." On whether she thinks less of Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL for not voting to impeach Trump: "He and I do not agree on this issue, and I would not like to characterize beyond that." — Arizona GOP gubernatorial nominee KARI LAKE on rumors of joining Trump as a potential vice presidential nominee in 2024, on ABC's "This Week": "I'm going to serve eight years as governor of Arizona." More from Olivia Olander — Rep. NANCY MACE (R-S.C.) on whether she thinks Biden has committed any impeachable offenses, on CNN's "State of the Union": "That is something that would have to be investigated. I am not interested in playing tit for tat. I am not interested in retaliation." — Sen. MIKE LEE (R-Utah) on whether he supports Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM's (R-S.C.) proposed national 15-week abortion ban, on "Fox News Sunday": "I can't sign on to it. Let me explain why: We've been saying for nearly 50 years that this is not a federal issue. It shouldn't be primarily a state issue except insofar as we're dealing with federal funding and things that are distinctively part of Congress' role." — Rep. HENRY CUELLAR (D-Texas) on his place in Congress, on "Fox News Sunday": "I'm a conservative Democrat. I work in a very bipartisan way. … And I think every party has the extreme — we have the extreme left, we have the extreme right. But some of us are not sent up to Washington to go make political statements." TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week's must-read opinion pieces, curated by Zack Stanton. Politics …
Policy …
U.K. fallout …
The world …
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| BIG PICTURE HERE WE GO AGAIN — "Trump Plans to Challenge the 2022 Elections — Starting in Philly," by Rolling Stone's Asawin Suebsaeng and Adam Rawnsley: "In recent months, [DONALD] TRUMP has convened a series of in-person meetings and conference calls to discuss laying the groundwork to challenge the 2022 midterm election results, four people familiar with the conversations tell Rolling Stone. "In these conversations, pro-Trump groups, attorneys , Republican Party activists, and MAGA diehards often discuss the type of scorched-earth legal tactics they could deploy. And they've gamed out scenarios for how to aggressively challenge elections, particularly ones in which a winner is not declared on Election Night. If there's any hint of doubt about the winners, the teams plan to wage aggressive court campaigns and launch a media blitz." THE VIEW FROM 1600 PENN — "Biden juggling long list of issues to please Dem coalition," by AP's Josh Boak CLICKER — "6 Suspenseful Factors Clouding the Midterms," by N.Y. Mag's Ed Kilgore THE ALARM IS STILL RINGING — "America's election workers are leaving in droves," by the Boston Globe's Jess Bidgood in Central Lake, Mich.: "A Globe review of the ranks of top county election officials in five hard-fought battleground states — Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia — found a dramatic jump in election official turnover. A similar trend held for the municipal election officials of Massachusetts, which of course is no battleground. Between the 2016 election and the 2018 midterms, the six states saw about 18 percent of those top officials depart. In the nearly two years since the 2020 election, that figure has risen to roughly 30 percent." SPLIT DECISION — "Oz-Shapiro. Warnock-Kemp. Split-ticket voters loom large in midterms," by WaPo's Hannah Knowles: "Strategists point to uneven spending, the power of incumbency and the candidates themselves to explain the disparities. Several cases underscore how GOP nominees who are polarizing or untested have complicated the party's efforts to make the midterms a simple referendum on the state of the country, the economy and views of the party in power, some said." TRUST ISSUES — "GOP voters told to hold onto mail ballots until Election Day," by AP's Christina Cassidy and Ali Swenson MIDTERM MEDDLING — "Mystery robocall thanks Democrats in competitive Georgia races for supporting abortion rights of 'birthing persons,'" by CNN's Em Steck and Andrew Kaczynski: "The calls, which used polarizing language popular with Democratic activists, are made to sound like they are in support of Democratic Rep. SANFORD BISHOP and gubernatorial nominee STACEY ABRAMS — but Democrats involved in the races allege that the call, uncovered by CNN's KFile, is the work of Republicans." BATTLE FOR THE SENATE HOT IN CLEVELAND — "Vance faces backlash in Ukrainian community over war stance," by WaPo's Cara McGoogan in Parma, Ohio: "The Ukrainian population of Ohio has traditionally leaned Republican because of the party's forceful criticism of communism. But that could change this year." WHAT HAPPENS OUT WEST — "Utah Senate race: Referendum on direction Trump has led GOP," by AP's Sam Metz: "In reliably Republican Utah, the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, has emerged as a potent issue after the House committee investigating the riot published [Sen. MIKE] LEE's text messages with then-President Trump's chief of staff, MARK MEADOWS." THE UNEXPECTED MAP EXPANDER — "Home-grown campaign has Democrats feeling resurgent against Sen. Grassley," by WaPo's Dylan Wells from Council Bluffs, Iowa: "Some Iowa Democrats point to [MIKE] FRANKEN'S freedom to run the race he wants, untethered to expectations and directives from the national party and outside consultants, as being key to his success so far. In interviews with The Washington Post, Democrats described an environment in previous elections in which local knowledge was eschewed in favor of money and campaign staffers associated with the national party." BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE ALL EYES ON MID-MICHIGAN — "Poll: Slotkin leads Barrett in tossup race for U.S. House," by the Detroit News' Melissa Nann Burke: "A new poll shows Democratic U.S. Rep. ELISSA SLOTKIN leading Republican state Sen. TOM BARRETT by 5.7 percentage points in their tossup race for Congress in a battleground mid-Michigan district where abortion is a top issue motivating voters." BATTLE FOR THE STATES ON WISCONSIN — "Tim Michels pledges to divest from company if elected, but questions remain over potential conflicts," by the Wisconsin State Journal's Mitchell Schmidt: [Republican gubernatorial candidate TIM] MICHELS "has yet to provide details on how he would distance himself from the family company, such as putting his assets into a blind trust or selling company stock." HOT ADS Via Steve Shepard — Georgia: GOP Senate nominee HERSCHEL WALKER's latest ad is narrated by the man who coached him to a national championship as a UGA freshman, college football hall-of-famer VINCE DOOLEY. — Arizona: Republican gubernatorial candidate KARI LAKE pledges to tackle "chronic street homelessness" in her latest ad . "I have a plan to restore safety and quality of life for the hardworking people of this state," Lake says, after warning that Arizona's cities could resemble "San Francisco, Portland [Ore.] or Seattle." — Oregon: In her new ad on homelessness , Democratic gubernatorial candidate TINA KOTEK says, to camera, "We certainly don't need a red-state takeover to clean up the damn trash." — Alaska: A new outside group supporting Republican Senate candidate KELLY TSHIBAKA asks viewers to "imagine an Alaska without a Murkowski in office."
| | BIDEN'S SUNDAY — The Bidens will leave Rehoboth Beach, Del., at 7:50 p.m., returning to the White House at 8:50 p.m.
VP KAMALA HARRIS' SUNDAY — The VP has nothing on her public schedule. | | | | | | NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don't miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID . | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick speaks in support of former President Donald Trump at a rally in Robstown, Texas, on Saturday, Oct. 22. | Nick Wagner/AP Photo | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 4 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR 1. THE DEVIL'S NOT JUST IN THE DETAILS: "For Trump's Backers in Congress, 'Devil Terms' Help Rally Voters," by NYT's Jennifer Valentino-DeVries and Steve Eder: "The Times found that in the current Congress, representatives who fought certifying the election used polarizing language on Twitter about 55 percent more often than other Republicans, and nearly triple the rate of Democrats. Objectors referred to their opponents as 'socialist' in more than 1,800 tweets, more than twice as often as other Republicans. Democrats called the other side 'fascist' about 80 times. … "The Times examined Democrats as well as Republicans . In the first years of the Trump presidency, Democrats on average spoke in a more outraged way than Republicans on Twitter and in constituent emails. A few Democrats, including Representative BILL PASCRELL of New Jersey, were among those lawmakers who most frequently used demonizing speech on Twitter, even into the current congressional term. But Republicans have otherwise eclipsed Democrats, the analysis revealed. Republicans have more than quadrupled their use of divisive rhetoric since the early 2010s in the Congressional Record, which is dominated by stately and tedious speeches from the House floor." 2. LET THE JOCKEYING BEGIN: "Young Democrats ready their plans for a post-Pelosi shake-up," by NBC's Scott Wong: "All of the Democrats angling for leadership positions have said their top priority this fall is to preserve the party's narrow five-seat majority in the House. They've been crisscrossing the country, raising loads of cash and stumping for their vulnerable colleagues. But after the election, these leadership candidates also hope that their work pays off as they call in their political chits and lock down support."
| | | | A message from Meta:   | | | 3. IMMIGRATION FILES: "Illegal border crossings to U.S. from Mexico hit annual high," by AP's Elliot Spagat: "Migrants were stopped 227,547 times in September at the U.S. border with Mexico, the third-highest month of Joe Biden's presidency. It was up 11.5% from 204,087 times in August and 18.5% from 192,001 times in September 2021. In the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, migrants were stopped 2.38 million times, up 37% from 1.73 million times the year before, according to figures released late Friday night." 4. THE PANDEMIC: "A 'Tripledemic'? Flu and Other Infections Return as Covid Cases Rise," by NYT's Apoorva Mandavilli: "Most cases of Covid, flu and R.S.V. are likely to be mild, but together they may sicken millions of Americans and swamp hospitals, public health experts warned."
| | | | JOIN WOMEN RULE THURSDAY FOR A TALK WITH DEPARTING MEMBERS OF CONGRESS: A historic wave of retirements is hitting Congress, including several prominent Democratic women such as Illinois Rep. Cheri Bustos, House Democrats' former campaign chief. What is driving their departures? Join POLITICO on Oct. 27 for "The Exit Interview," a virtual event that will feature a conversation with departing members where they'll explain why they decided to leave office and what challenges face their parties ahead. REGISTER HERE . | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | WHAT PLAYBOOKERS ARE READING: A roundup of the most-clicked links from the past week in Playbook. 1. "Here Are All Of Marjorie Taylor Greene's January 6 Text Messages With Mark Meadows," by Hunter Walker on Substack 2. "Sorry, Ron DeSantis, You Are No Donald Trump," by John Harris 3. Commander, the Bidens' dog, barking at the White House press corps 4. "Have You Seen 'File 8'?: The Real-Life Spy Thriller Inside Patrick Leahy's Memoir," excerpt from Leahy's memoir for POLITICO Magazine 5. Mark Warner's emergence as a Swiftie . OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a friends-and-family gathering to celebrate the release of "Unchecked: The Untold Story Behind Congress's Botched Impeachments of Donald Trump" ( $28 ) by Rachael Bade and Karoun Demirjian at Comet Ping Pong on Saturday: Mike Shear, Jackie Kucinich, Scott Mulhauser, Paul Kane, Ryan Grim, Kelsey Snell, Scott Applewhite, Dave Salvo, Alex Bishop, Daniel Lippman, Mike Zapler, Mike DeBonis, Eugene Daniels, Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine, Zack Stanton, Bill Duryea, Kasie Hunt, Josh Dawsey, Brad Dayspring, Sam Runyon, Jeremy Adler, Jonathan Kott, Ryan Lucas, Roz Helderman, Amy Gardner and Matt Zapotosky. — SPOTTED at a party on Saturday night celebrating Robert Draper's new book, "Weapons of Mass Delusion: When the Republican Party Lost Its Mind" ( $29 ), hosted by Juleanna Glover : Kirsten Powers, former Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-Va.) (who went to high school with Draper), Matt Lewis and Erin DeLullo, Emily Horne, Peter Baker and Susan Glasser, Jane Mayer, Jackie Calmes, Jeremy Adler, Daniel Strauss, Akbar Shahid Ahmed, Tim Mak, Josh Dawsey, Tevi Troy, Michael Hirsh, Adam Green, Elizabeth Dias, Sahil Kapur, Alex Thompson, Olivia Troye, Brad Dayspring, John McCarthy, Shadi Hamid, Jonathan Kott, Hailey Fuchs and Jim Kessler. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Timothy D'Arduini, partner and head of Quarles and Brady's D.C. Immigration practice, and Dan Ngo, Part 11 petitions branch manager in the FAA's Office of Rulemaking, recently welcomed Liem Jay D'Arduini. BIRTHWEEK (was Saturday): Adam Parkhomenko HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Fred Keller (R-Pa.) former Sen. Mel Martinez (R-Fla.) … POLITICO's Lauren Morello and Jackie Heinz … Brian Ross … The Hill's Ellen Mitchell … Rachel Shabad of the Labor Department … Ani Chkhikvadze … DHS' Jared Skidmore … USAID's Sally Rey Parkinson … Anne Filipic of Share Our Strength … Caroline Kitchens of Shopify … Karen Hobert Flynn of Common Cause … Hayden Haynes of Rep. Mike Johnson's (R-La.) office … Malia Rulon Herman … Sandy Maisel of Colby College … Simon Rosenberg of New Democrat Network … Vikrum Aiyer … Sanjay Gupta ... Eliza Duckworth of Sen. Debbie Stabenow's (D-Mich.) office … Leif Noren of CRC Public Relations … Benjamin Haddad … Allison Preiss of the Center for American Progress ... Vanity Fair's Caleb Ecarma ... Kellyn Blossom … Finsbury Glover Hering's Peter Benton-Sullivan … Sheena Tahilramani … Matthew Barzun … Ken Feinberg ... Pat Cleary … Insider's Ryan Barber ... Annika Lichtenbaum ... UNHCR's Matthew Reynolds … Bobby Burchfield … Kinsey Casey … Moe Vela … Celina Gore … Eva Tell of Rokk Solutions … Will Payne of Coalfield Strategies … Martin Luther King III Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, reporter Eli Okun and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
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