✌️Two Signs We’re on Track for Another Quarter of Negative GDP

Good morning. Some economic indicators are leading – they can tell you what's happening to the...

It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. Some economic indicators are leading – they can tell you what's happening to the economy before it becomes headline news. Others are lagging. Right now, two key indicators are showing that we're on track for a third quarter of negative growth. Those indicators are the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) read on production levels, as well as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on personal consumption data. With both showing a continued decline so far this quarter, it appears we're on track for another decline. Whether or not this quarter is officially recognized as a recession or not may not matter. As long as the trend of economic growth is down, the pressure will be on for the stock market. Traders should continue to plan for daily volatility and a downside move accordingly. 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Get all the details in this FREE Kit here MARKETS DOW 31,581.28 +1.40% S&P 3,979.87 +1.83% NASDAQ 11,791.90 +2.14% *As of market close • Markets surged on Wednesday, closing near highs of the day. • Oil slid 5.6 percent, to $82.05 per barrel. • Gold rallied 0.9 percent, last going for about $1,729 per ounce. • Cryptocurrencies traded mixed, with Bitcoin at $19,031 at the stock market close. Today's TOP TIPS As Recession Fears Grow, Look for Recession-Resistant Companies on Market Drops Typically, it's taken two quarters of negative GDP growth to officially mark a recession. By the time that's announced, some short or shallow recessions are already over. We've seen two negative quarters so far this year, but many are looking to change the definition given the strong job market and other factors. As the definition of a recession seems to be changing, it might be a good idea to rethink the idea of a recession-resistant company. » FULL STORY Insider Trading Report: Trustco Bank Corp (TRST) Michael Ozimek, an executive vice president at Trustco Bank Corp (TRST), recently picked up 2,500 shares. The buy increased his stake by nearly 63 percent, and came to a total price of just over $82,000. The buy comes after a number of other company insiders have been buyers in recent months, including an 1,800-share pickup from the company's Chairman and CEO back in July for nearly $60,000. Over the past three years, company insiders have been almost entirely buyers of shares. » FULL STORY Unusual Options Activity: Texas Instruments (TXN) Shares of semiconductor company Texas Instruments (TXN) are down about 14 percent in the past year, about in-line with the overall stock market. One trader sees a further decline in the weeks ahead. That's based on the November $160 puts. With 71 days until expiration, 5,075 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 113, for a 45-fold surge in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $8.60 to get into the trade. » FULL STORY IN OTHER NEWS • Fed On Track For 0.75 Percent Rate Hike This Month Following comments at the Federal Reserve's annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, traders are expecting the central bank to raise interest rates by 0.75 percent when the Fed's next policy meeting occurs on September 20-21. That will be the third meeting in a row with such a rate hike. • Rubenstein Warns Fed Wants Higher Unemployment Billionaire investor David Rubenstein has warned that the Federal Reserve will likely keep raising interest rates as long as the job market remains strong. A higher rate of unemployment would bring about enough decreased spending to reign in inflation, even if saying so outright may not sound like an attractive policy for the central bank. • Homeowner Wealth Evaporates as Prices Drop Rising mortgage rates are leading to lower home sales and below-asking prices as well. That points to a decline in housing prices overall, which will weigh on homeowner wealth. Currently, homeowners have an estimated $11.5 trillion in tappable-equity, but data shows that may have peaked back in May. • China Considers Big Stimulus Package China is looking to pass a big stimulus package to speed up its slowing economy. The plan is coming out years after the country has stated that it wouldn't resort to such stimulus efforts. With the nation still using harsh lockdowns to cut down on Covid cases, however, the country faces ongoing economic challenges. • ING Hotels Reports Cyberattack InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) has reported a cyberattack. The attack downed the hotel chain's booking system and its mobile app. The company runs over 6,000 hotels around the world, serving more than 150 million guests. The hotel chain last faced a three-month cyberattack back in 2016. S&P 500 MOVERS TOP SEDG 11.732% ENPH 8.244% BAX  7.391% DXCM 7.266% ROST 6.619% BOTTOM HAL 2.693% EOG 2.519% APA 2.367% BKR 2.23% ODFL 2.169% Quote of the Day Russia's move to again cut gas supply to the EU just as the region scrambles to fill its inventories ahead of winter is a further escalation of its policy of the past months to inflict economic pain through repeated supply cuts to Germany, the EU's biggest economy and gas consumer. - Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, on why the shutdown of Russian oil and gas exports to Europe are likely to continue, driving global energy needs higher. 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