| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
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NRCC Chair Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) speaks in Rochester, Minn., on Oct. 30, 2020. | Bruce Kluckhohn/AP Photo | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | Happy Labor Day! It's quiet on the news front, so rest up and get ready for the fall: Election Day is nine weeks from tomorrow. First, a couple of breaking news updates that popped as we were getting ready to hit send this morning: — OPEC+ announced it will roll back its September boost in production. AP: "OPEC and allied oil-producing countries, including Russia, cut their supplies to the global economy by 100,000 barrels per day, underlining their unhappiness with crude prices that have sagged because of recession fears." — LIZ TRUSS is the new Tory leader and Britain's next PM. She meets with the queen Tuesday before assuming her duties. The Guardian adds that "the euphoria of victory will quickly give way to the hard reality of the economic challenges ahead, with the country gripped by a cost of living crisis leaving families struggling to pay their energy bills this winter." How she won, by our London crew CURTAIN-RAISING SEASON HAS OFFICIALLY BEGUN — As you may have heard, we have some elections of our own coming up soon. We prefer midterm curtain-raising pieces on the traditional Tuesday after Labor Day. But, like pumpkin spice lattes in August, they are arriving early. The AP frames the next 63 days with the question that has dominated the late summer: "Red wave crashing?" Steve Peoples sifts through the various reasons for GOP angst — President JOE BIDEN's recent legislative successes; the unpopular DONALD TRUMP's return to center stage; the "candidate quality" issue, as Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL calls it — and lands on abortion as the biggest driver of change. "[N]othing has undermined the GOP's momentum more than the Supreme Court's stunning decision in June to end abortion protections, which triggered a swift backlash even in the reddest of red states," he writes. In Pennsylvania, where Biden will spend the day, the Democrats' gubernatorial candidate, AG JOSH SHAPIRO, has been presented with a target-rich environment when choosing what parts of his GOP opponent DOUG MASTRIANO's record to attack. He's zeroing in on Mastriano's support for a total ban on abortion with no exceptions for the life of a mother, rape or incest: "Shapiro will launch his first TV ad of the fall campaign on Tuesday, casting Mastriano's fierce opposition to abortion rights and gay marriage as a threat to Pennsylvania's economy. The ad is the first spot in a $16.9 million television advertising investment the campaign reserved for the nine weeks leading up to Election Day." In Alaska, we would add, Rep.-elect MARY PELTOLA's first TV spot of the general election is all about the Dobbs decision, framed in libertarian language about "personal privacy rights" and government intrusion. "Six Supreme Court justices took away one of Alaska's most fundamental freedoms," she says. "Our right to choose." The abortion question even has the always-on-offense RNC Chair RONNA McDANIEL running away from the politically toxic position taken by Mastriano — and plenty of other Republicans: "[T]he past four Republican presidents since Roe believe in the exception, and that is where I think a lot of the American people are, according to polling." The kicker to the AP piece is from Rep. TOM EMMER (R-Minn.), head of the NRCC, who had this message to his Republican House colleagues: "Don't be measuring the drapes. This isn't the typical midterm that we're talking about."
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Voters fill out ballots in Sullivan, Wis., on Aug. 9. | Alex Wroblewski/Getty Images | Over at the NYT, Lisa Lerer and Jennifer Medina have a novel framing of the midterms that sounds almost like a psychological diagnosis of the country. The electorate is undergoing "a national anxiety disorder" and "has lost its bearings." The midterms are "shaping up to be a referendum on which party is more to blame for a country that has decidedly not returned to normal." It's a difficult election to handicap, given the surfeit of unusual issues hammering Americans: "Some voters say the instability has prompted them to grapple with decisions they never thought to make. How secure is your child's school from shootings? Do you send your college student to school with abortion medication? Does the cost of beef make you skip over the butcher's section in the grocery store?" But they, too, come back to abortion as the biggie: "Democrats hope they can offset economic concerns by energizing voters on abortion rights. In the weeks after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, new voter registrations among women surged, according to a New York Times analysis, as abortion rocketed up the list of voter concerns in polling. "Already, the party has spent $92 million on advertising mentioning the issue, according to data from AdImpact, a media-tracking firm. They spent $5.6 million on ads about abortion rights over the same time period in the 2018 midterms." Emmer gets the kicker quote in the Times piece, too, but here he has a slightly more optimistic take: "Republicans have yet to unleash much of their spending raised from outside groups, which is expected to begin after Labor Day. Their goal is to shift attention away from abortion and Mr. Trump by focusing on crime and attacking the Inflation Reduction Act and student loan forgiveness plan as excessive government spending that will not help voters. "'It's cost of living, and it's the economy,' said [Emmer]. 'This is a groceries-and-gas election.'"
| | | | A message from Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids: FDA misses deadlines as flavored e-cigs hook more kids.
The FDA has missed deadline after deadline to protect our kids from nicotine-loaded flavored e-cigarettes. This week marks one year since a court-ordered deadline for the FDA to take action, but addictive flavored vapes are still on the market.
Learn more about how FDA delays put kids' health at risk. | | | STAT OF THE DAY — Another reminder of how much Dobbs has altered the political terrain comes from the WSJ's polling editor, Aaron Zitner, who highlights this stunning change in the Journal's latest survey: "Women who are independents … shifted 20 percentage points in the Democrats' direction, and Hispanic women moved by 15 points" since the paper's March poll. (More from that poll below.) Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. LABOR DAY READ — "Labor Secretary Walsh on remote work: Flexibility is key," by Daniel Lippman and John Harris: "If you are someone who thinks the answer to the future of work is still more improvisation, then [MARTY] WALSH is your labor secretary. Somewhere along the way, like many people, it dawned on him that the answer to his early frustration — when do we get back to the way things were? — is most likely never. … 'There's something to be said for flexibility,' Walsh said." HISTORY LESSON — "Why do we celebrate Labor Day? So Grover Cleveland could own the left," by WaPo's Gillian Brockell
| | | | A message from Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids:   | | | POLL OF THE DAY — WSJ's Catherine Lucey in Wilkes-Barre, Pa., and Ken Thomas in Appleton, Wis., write that the paper's new poll "suggests that Democrats have a fresh opportunity to entice swing voters by pitching the components of the Inflation Reduction Act." The breakdown:
- The issues: "The Journal poll shows that Mr. Biden remains at a deficit in his handling of inflation and rising costs, with 39% of respondents approving and 58% disapproving. That is a slight improvement from a WSJ poll in March, when 34% approved of his response to inflation and high costs and 63% didn't approve.
- Motivating factors: "Asked broadly about their top issue for the midterms, voters cited economic issues and inflation first, followed by abortion. But when offered a choice of five issues and asked which made them most likely to vote, they put the Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade ahead of inflation."
- On the IRA: "When told about components of the law, including its ability to allow Medicare to negotiate lower drug prices and expand domestic energy sources, 51% of the poll's respondents said they favored the plan, 33% said they opposed it and 15% said they were unsure. The biggest shift in support was with swing voters — people who didn't identify as Democrat or Republican — suggesting Mr. Biden has an opportunity with that group."
| | BIDEN'S MONDAY: The president traveled to Milwaukee, Wis., this morning.
— 12:15 p.m.: Biden will deliver remarks for Labor Day with Walsh in attendance.
— 1:40 p.m.: Biden will depart Milwaukee en route to Pittsburgh, where he is scheduled to arrive at 4 p.m.
— 5:30 p.m.: Biden will deliver remarks for Labor Day with Walsh also in attendance.
— 7:20 p.m.: Biden will depart Pittsburgh to return to the White House, where he is scheduled to arrive at 8:40 p.m.
VP KAMALA HARRIS' MONDAY — The VP is speaking this morning at the annual Greater Boston Labor Council breakfast at the Boston Park Plaza Hotel. Still to come:
— 11:25 a.m.: Harris will lead a roundtable with union organizers and members.
— 12:50 p.m.: Harris will leave Boston to return to D.C. | | | | | | LONDON PLAYBOOK IS A MUST-READ. As the U.K. Conservative Party elects its new leader, subscribe to POLITICO's London Playbook for free and receive the latest news, learn who is backing whom, and what these results mean for the future of Britain. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is pictured as it launches from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Fla., on Sunday, Sept. 4. | Malcolm Denemark/Florida Today via AP | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 10 THINGS TO START YOUR WEEK 1. WHAT MERRICK GARLAND IS READING: With the midterm elections rapidly approaching, top officials at the Justice Department are "weighing whether to temporarily scale back work in criminal investigations involving former President Donald J. Trump because of an unwritten rule forbidding overt actions that could improperly influence the vote," NYT's Charlie Savage reports. But, but, but: "Despite its name, the 60-day rule is a general principle rather than a written law or regulation. Its breadth and limits are undefined. The Justice Department has some formal policies and guidelines that relate to the norm, but they offer little clarity to how it should apply to the present situation." 2. LETTER FROM MINNESOTA: Our colleague David Siders visits the Minnesota state fair with state AG KEITH ELLISON to get the download on what Dems in the Land of 10,000 Lakes are facing this fall. "For all of the places Democrats have exceeded electoral expectations in recent weeks — in the rejection of an anti-abortion ballot measure in Kansas, and in special elections in Nebraska, Minnesota and New York — they are still contending with some vulnerabilities that go beyond President Joe Biden's unpopularity or the electorate's anxiety about the economy, even in states as Democratic-leaning as Minnesota. And one big problem for them is crime." 3. CONVENTIONAL WISDOM: "A Second Constitutional Convention? Some Republicans Want to Force One," by NYT's Carl Hulse: "A new book by a former Democratic senator warns of the risks of allowing states to call for a convention. Some in the G.O.P. see it as the only way to rein in the federal government." 4. AT WHAT COST: Though the White House hasn't released a comprehensive breakdown of the cost of its student loan forgiveness plan, budget analysts project that it could carry a price tag of $1 trillion, WSJ's Gabriel Rubin and Amara Omeokwe write . "Analysts expect strong interest in both debt cancellation and in programs that allow borrowers to pay a lower percentage of their income to keep up with their loans. The expected popularity of the policy could drive up costs and raise questions about whether the expense can be offset by other Biden administration policies, as the White House says." 5. SULLIVAN OUT: U.S. Ambassador to Russia JOHN SULLIVAN departed his post Sunday, an expected transition that was hastened due to family medical reasons, per AP's Matthew Lee. After almost three years in one of the diplomatic corps' most difficult postings, Sullivan will be replaced for now by ELIZABETH ROOD, deputy chief of mission, until Biden taps a full-time successor.
| | | | A message from Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids:   | | | 6. THE AARP ELECTION: Democrats are trying to sway older voters with a message focused on prescription drug price reform and protecting Social Security, HuffPost's Kevin Robillard reports from Phoenix. Seniors make up a huge part of any midterm electorate, and several of the key states this fall are among the country's oldest (New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Florida) or host large retiree populations (Arizona, Nevada). Republicans are hoping to counter Democrats by focusing on the burdens of inflation for seniors with fixed incomes. 7. BIDEN VS. NEWSOM: Biden issued a statement of public support Sunday for a California bill to help farmworkers organize — legislation that's on Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM's desk but that he may not sign into law, the L.A. Times' Jessica Garrison reports. Biden's unusual entrance into the debate could up the pressure on Newsom to acquiesce. He vetoed a similar bill last year, and his office said last month that he opposed the new one in its current form. 8. BET ON IT: "To bet or not to bet: Washington to decide whether voters can wager on elections," by Declan Harty: "Officials at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the regulator in charge of overseeing U.S. derivatives markets, have long been reluctant to open up trading in elections. … Now, it has to decide whether Kalshi's proposal will meet the same fate." 9. FROM JAN. 6 TO THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL: Wisconsin GOP congressional nominee DERRICK VAN ORDEN used campaign funds to travel to the Capitol on the day of the Jan. 6 insurrection — which the FEC declined to find unlawful in a decision newly made public Friday, The Daily Beast's Roger Sollenberger reports . Commissioners dismissed a complaint because the amount of money was too small. "As often happens in politically charged decisions, the Democratic and Republican commissioners released competing explanations. In this case, those statements had one key difference: The Democrats condemned the expenses; the Republicans were silent." 10. BIDEN'S BORDER BACKLOG: "Tens of thousands of migrants who crossed the border illegally in the past year are in limbo after the U.S. government failed to file the necessary paperwork in court, leaving them with no immigration case to fight and ambiguous legal status in the U.S," WSJ's Alicia A. Caldwell writes. "Immigration judges and lawyers say such delays, deemed 'failure to prosecute' by Justice Department judges hearing the cases, are also undermining efforts by the Biden administration to reduce a backlog of cases that is approaching 2 million."
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Donald Trump tried to pay a lawyer with a horse. Henry Cuellar is up with a new ad curiously paid for by his congressional office. Chris Murphy got a pack of 10 trading cards for members of Congress, and narrated his reactions : Diana Harshbarger? "No idea who that is." David Trone? "Good guy, very rich." ENGAGED — Dave Weigel, a national reporter for WaPo and author of the Trailer campaign newsletter, and Margarita Noriega, managing editor of B2B at Morning Brew, got engaged Saturday during dinner at a rooftop restaurant in Istanbul on the end of a 10-day European vacation in France, Spain and Turkey. The couple met in 2015, when Margarita was working at Vox in D.C. and Dave DMed her because he thought she was very good at Twitter. The couple broke up in 2016 but got back together last year. Pic WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Alex Zuckerman, senior coordinating editor at Newsy and a CBS alum, and Matt Duncan, a systems administrator at Toole Design, welcomed Luke Patrick Duncan on Aug. 23. Pic … Another pic — Zack Beauchamp, a senior correspondent at Vox, and Katelyn Esmonde, Hecht-Levi postdoctoral fellow at Johns Hopkins' Berman Institute of Bioethics, on Aug. 26 welcomed Daveed Noah Esmonde-Beauchamp, who joins big sister Eleanor "Ellie." Pics ... Family pic, during Daveed's bris HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Ann McLane Kuster (D-N.H.) … theGrio's April Ryan … Pangiam's Kevin McAleenan … DGA's Noam Lee … Atlantic Council's Fred Kempe … Jessica Mejía … WSJ's Ted Mann … Rob Lehman … NYT's Clay Risen … Matthew Allen … Anne Marie Hoffman of the Harbour Group … Jeremy Furchtgott … CBS' Kris Van Cleave … Dale Neugebauer of DNstrategic … Abby McIntyre … Fox News' Amy Fenton … POLITICO's Janaki Chadha … Brian Wolff of the Edison Electric Institute … Natalie Cofield … David Yarkin of Procurated … Justin Schwab of CGCN Law … CNN's Ann Marlow … Rachel Janfaza … former Sen. John Danforth (R-Mo.) … Girls Who Code's Tarika Barrett (5-0) … Stephanie Green … Shanie Reichman … Aaron Lorenzo Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
| | | | A message from Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids: Kids can't ignore deadlines. Neither should the FDA.
When kids miss deadlines for assignments, they face consequences. But the FDA has repeatedly missed deadlines to protect kids from flavored e-cigarettes, defying Congress and courts.
First, the FDA missed a court-ordered deadline to decide what e-cigarettes can stay on the market. Then the FDA missed a deadline set by Congress to clear the market of unauthorized – and illegal – synthetic nicotine products, including vape brands popular with kids.
The agency's dangerous inaction lets tobacco companies hook more kids with flavored e-cigarettes.
To protect our kids, the FDA must end the delays and eliminate all flavored e-cigarettes now. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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