Monday, August 1, 2022

Dems plow ahead on reconciliation

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POLITICO Playbook

By Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza

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With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer speaks with reporters at the Capitol.

Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said he expects to bring the PACT Act — which would expand health care access to veterans exposed to burn pits — back to the floor this week. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo

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DRIVING THE DAY

THE WEEK — Today: Pelosi lands in Singapore. VP KAMALA HARRIS visits Miami to speak about climate change as hurricane season intensifies. … Tuesday: Primaries in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington. … Wednesday: OPEC+ coalition meets to discuss whether to boost production goals for September, with important implications for gas prices heading into the home stretch of the midterms. … Thursday: New trade deficit numbers drop. Hungarian PM VIKTOR ORBAN speaks at CPAC Texas. … Friday: Labor Department releases July jobs numbers. Trump campaigns for Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate TIM MICHELS in Waukesha.

With President JOE BIDEN back in isolation after rebound Covid, the White House's hopes to get him back on the road are on hold, at least until he tests negative again.

But it's a big week for both his agenda in Congress and politics across the country. Here are some of the biggest stories to keep an out for.

In Congress … 

DEMS FULL SPEED AHEAD ON RECONCILIATION — This week, the bill that launched a whole lot of JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) Sunday show hits will be front and center as Democrats get ready to defend the "Inflation Reduction Act of 2022" (aka the reconciliation bill) as it is parsed by the Senate parliamentarian and gets teed up for a floor vote.

Hurdle 1: The Senate Parliamentarian will go through the bill text with a fine-tooth comb, flagging any provision that doesn't meet the stringent rules of what's allowed within the scope of the reconciliation process. Aides to top Senate Dems feel that momentum is on their side, but expect the legislation might see some minor changes.

Hurdle 2: It's still unclear whether Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA supports the bill. The Arizona Democrat was left out of the hush-hush negotiations between Manchin and Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER, and was "caught completely off guard by its announcement, particularly the inclusion of a provision narrowing the so-called carried interest loophole, which brings in $14 billion of the bill's $739 billion in new revenues," per Burgess Everett . "Sinema had no new public comments on Sunday."

The timing: On Sunday night, a senior Democrat on the Hill told Playbook that "Schumer told the caucus to plan to be available this coming weekend to finish the bill (if need be), and nothing has changed on that front."

REPUBLICANS GET BURNED — Last week, Senate Republicans blocked the passage of the PACT Act, which would expand health care access to veterans exposed to burn pits. Their opposition — ostensibly because they wanted to vote on an amendment offered by Sen. PAT TOOMEY (R-Pa.), but difficult to divorce from the broader context of Democrats' breakthrough on reconciliation talks — has spurred swift and widespread backlash, with veterans and advocates for the bill (the loudest and most famous among them being JON STEWART) torching the senators in viral condemnations and TV hits.

Now, Schumer expects to bring the bill back to the floor this week. "I will hold a new vote this week, and I am urging everyone to vote 'yes,'" Schumer said at a Sunday press conference. More from the N.Y. Post

Asked about the Toomey amendment, Schumer said he'd give the Pennsylvania Republican "a right to bring his amendment to the floor and try to get the votes for it." Toomey said Sunday that if his amendment passes, he would support the larger bill.

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On the campaign trail … 

There are a number of significant races being decided this week — including some marquee primaries for Senate and House. Here's what you should be paying attention to:

— Kansas: It's the nation's first big post-Dobbs electoral test on abortion rights: "On Tuesday, Kansans will vote on a constitutional amendment that, if it passes, could give the Republican-dominated [state] Legislature the ability to push new abortion restrictions or to outlaw the procedure entirely," writes NYT's Katie Glueck . "Interviews with more than 40 voters in populous Johnson County, Kan., this week show that after the fall of Roe, Republicans no longer have a monopoly on fury — especially in states where abortion rights are clearly on the ballot and particularly in the battleground suburbs."

What to expect: The vote is expected to be tight, and the issue has revved up voter engagement — the Kansas City Star reported last week that early voting turnout is up 246% over the 2018 midterms. Related read: "Vulnerable House Dems see abortion as winning campaign theme," by AP's Thomas Beaumont

Arizona: On Sunday, Emerson College released its latest polling on the state's two biggest primaries being decided on Tuesday:

  • In the GOP gubernatorial primary, KARRIN TAYLOR ROBSON is at 47%, and KARI LAKE has 46% — a "statistical dead-heat," per Emerson. Former VP MIKE PENCE and outgoing Gov. DOUG DUCEY support Taylor Robson; former President DONALD TRUMP has endorsed Lake.
  • In the GOP Senate primary, Trump-endorsed "BLAKE MASTERS leads with 40% support, an 18-point lead over his closest competitor JIM LAMON (22%), followed by [Attorney General] MARK BRNOVICH at 14%, and MICHAEL MCGUIRE at 12%." The victor will face Democratic Sen. MARK KELLY in November.

But there's another Arizona primary with potentially huge implications. Zach Montellaro has the rundown on state Rep. MARK FINCHEM, a Trump-endorsed candidate who is "inching closer to becoming the chief election official in one of the most tightly divided battleground states in the country." Related read: "'We're worried about our children': GOP fights to reclaim Arizona school chief seat," by Juan Perez Jr.

Missouri: "High-stakes Senate primary tests Missouri Republicans' tolerance for an Eric Greitens return," by CNN's Simone Pathe: "In conversations with about 45 Missourians across the state, mostly Republicans, some said they were sticking by [former Gov. ERIC] GREITENS , and even those who weren't expressed skepticism about the allegations. But the majority said they had issues with the candidate, ranging from 'his baggage' to the fact that he was a 'quitter' for resigning as governor." Related read: "Eric Greitens Tries to Win Over Missouri's GOP Voters After Scandals," by WSJ's Lindsay Wise

— Michigan: There's one big statewide primary on Tuesday, and a few more hard-fought congressional races:

Washington: "Trump revenge? Biden backlash? Six things to watch for in Washington's Tuesday primary," by the Seattle Times' Jim Brunner and David Gutman

Related Read: "In Races for Governor, Democrats See a Silver Lining," per the NYT

Good Monday morning. Welcome to August. Thanks for reading Playbook. What races are you watching this week? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade , Eugene Daniels , Ryan Lizza .

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WILL SHE OR WON'T SHE? — Though their trip to Singapore begins today, it's still unclear whether the congressional delegation led by Speaker NANCY PELOSI will make a stop in Taiwan. "A statement issued Sunday by Mrs. Pelosi's office said the group's travels would include visits to Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan but didn't address whether Taiwan was still on the itinerary," per WSJ's Michael Gordon .

At this point, the trip is in "damned if you do, damned if you don't" territory for the speaker. Writes Gordon: "Should Mrs. Pelosi's delegation forgo a stop in Taiwan, Republican lawmakers are poised to criticize the Democrats for backing down, but if she does go ahead with the visit, the already sharp tensions between China and the Biden administration are expected to escalate further."

JUST POSTED — "Pelosi lands in Singapore to kick off Asia tour," per AP

THE LATEST IN KENTUCKY — "Updates from Eastern Kentucky flooding: Death toll at 28 amid flood recovery efforts," by the Louisville Courier Journal's Lucas Aulbach

CATASTROPHE IN CALIFORNIA — "McKinney fire explodes to become California's largest of year as thousands flee flames," by L.A. Times' Melissa Healy, Adam Elmahrek and Alene Tchekmedyian

HAPPENING THIS WEEK — "Lies for Profit: Can Sandy Hook Parents Shut Alex Jones Down?" by NYT's Elizabeth Williamson: "A hefty financial verdict this week could dissuade other politically driven liars. But the path forward is uncertain, and the legal battles take a toll."

BIDEN'S MONDAY: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief at 10:15 a.m.

HARRIS' MONDAY:

10 a.m.: The VP will depart D.C. en route to Miami, Fla.

1:55 p.m.: Harris will receive a climate briefing at the National Hurricane Center.

4:05 p.m.: Harris will deliver remarks on the administration's climate efforts at Florida International University.

6 p.m.: Harris will depart Miami to return to D.C.

Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 1:45 p.m.

THE SENATE will meet at 3 p.m. to take up ELIZABETH HANES' judicial nomination, with a cloture vote at 5:30 p.m.

THE HOUSE is out.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today .

 
 

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Former President Donald Trump greets fans at the first tee during the final round of the Bedminster Invitational LIV Golf tournament.

Former President Donald Trump greets fans at the first tee during the final round of the Bedminster Invitational LIV Golf tournament in Bedminster, N.J., on Sunday, July 31. Later, the crowd was heard chanting "Let's Go Brandon" as Trump, Tucker Carlson and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) looked on. | Seth Wenig/AP Photo

PLAYBOOK READS

ABORTION FALLOUT

THE POST-ROE LANDSCAPE — WaPo's Ann Marimow, Laurie McGinley and Caroline Kitchener have a look at the new set of legal challenges that are expected to crop up soon in the wake of the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade. There is little precedent for any of the issues that experts are anticipating. For its part, the White House has pledged to protect certain abortion medication. "But a month after the Dobbs ruling, administration officials are still debating how they can deliver on that promise beyond the president's executive order to protect access."

ON THE INTERNET — "The web is home to an illegal bazaar for abortion pills. The FDA is ill-equipped to stop it," by Ruth Reader

ALL POLITICS

THE DESANTIS EFFECT — Florida Gov. RON DESANTIS has so far skipped out on endorsing any Florida Republicans running for Congress. But that hasn't stopped the candidates from tethering their hopes to the popular governor. "Republicans vying for Congress — and countless more in down-ballot races — are using DeSantis' photo in campaign mailers and television ads and are dropping his name in debates ahead of the Aug. 23 primary. The use of DeSantis in Republican contests is rivaling, and even sometimes surpassing, that of former President Donald Trump, who has handed out congressional endorsements in several Florida elections," Gary Fineout writes from Tallahassee .

DNC HOLDING OFF ON CALENDAR ANNOUNCEMENT — The DNC this weekend confirmed that it will not set the new Democratic presidential nominating calendar until after the midterm elections conclude, AP's Will Weissert writes . "Iowa and New Hampshire had argued that possibly losing their positions going first and second could hurt Democrats in the states' top races, especially since the Republican Party has already said Iowa will continue to lead off its 2024 primaries."

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

TRUMP'S LAWYERS PREPARE — Though there has been no outright indication that the Justice Department is preparing a criminal case against Trump, the former president's lawyers are thinking about a defense strategy just in case, Rolling Stone's Asawin Suebsaeng and Adam Rawnsley report . "Members of the ex-president's legal team have already begun brainstorming strategy and potential defenses, according to three people familiar with the matter and written communications reviewed by Rolling Stone. Trump himself has been briefed on potential legal defenses on at least two occasions this summer, two of the sources say."

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THE WHITE HOUSE

VEEP FILES — N.Y. Mag's Gabe Debenedetti examines "The Kamala Conundrum." VP KAMALA HARRIS , he writes, "is the most scrutinized vice president in memory, and those around her have no doubt her coverage has been heavily warped by sexism and racism. Viewed from the most sympathetic perspective, the Harris who emerged as the administration's foremost advocate of abortion rights this summer has hit her stride. She's sat for high-profile interviews and condemned Republicans in speeches. She's met with state legislators facing the most immediate threats, as in Indiana and Florida, and campaigned in states where the midterms will determine the fate of legal abortion, as in Pennsylvania. Her role now resembles one Biden envisioned for her in the summer of 2020 — aggressive partisan warrior selling the administration's popular line.

"But that was a different political universe , and it took one and a half uncomfortable years for her set of skills to align with the administration's strategic needs. Harris set up her office with the instruction that maintaining close ties to the president was a priority, believing that to be a guarantee of internal influence. That proved unexpectedly complex, partly owing to their different operating styles. … Most exasperating to her advocates, however, have been the questions about her preparedness for the top job, an especially sensitive line of inquiry ever since the 79-year-old Biden contracted covid earlier in July. The concern comes mostly from her occasionally stumbling responses to journalists."

CONGRESS

THE REAL-WORLD IMPACT — "Democrats in Washington had big ambitions this year to boost child care subsidies nationally as part of a broad domestic spending bill. But with those plans stalled because of a lack of bipartisan support, some states moved ahead with plans of their own," AP's Maysoon Khan writes .

POLICY CORNER

ALL THAT AND A BAG OF CHIPS — "Back to the Future: Industrial Policy Makes a Comeback," by Bob Davis for POLITICO Magazine: "Biden is touting a massive bill to subsidize computer chip manufacturing in the U.S. But the history of similar government interventions is spotty."

MEDIAWATCH

KNOWING SALLY BUZBEE — The WaPo leader gets the glossy mag treatment in a profile by Vanity Fair's Charlotte Klein: "'I'm Gonna Be Open Even If Sometimes That's Messy': How Sally Buzbee Is Putting Her Stamp On The Washington Post" : "While Buzbee gets high marks from her top editors … many staffers I've spoken to are still trying to get a handle on the paper's leader. She's warm and animated but almost politician-like in her ability to talk a lot without revealing what she actually thinks. 'It's a place that is perhaps unusually attached to taking direction from the very top," said one Post reporter. "So to not have that, I think, is very unsettling to a lot of people.'"

— On her Twitter policy: "Buzbee told me that her 'essential feeling' toward social media is, 'We want people to be able to join conversations, but we don't want them to veer over into outright opinion because that's gonna turn readers off from us.'"

ANTITRUST THE PROCESS — "Will the Biggest Publisher in the United States Get Even Bigger?" by NYT's Alexandra Alter, Elizabeth Harris and David McCabe: "The Biden administration is suing to block Penguin Random House from buying Simon & Schuster. A United States District Court will decide if the sale can proceed."

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Barack Obama shared his memories and appreciation for NBA legend Bill Russell, who died on Sunday at age 88.

Stacey Abrams remembered actress Nichelle Nichols, who played Lt. Uhura on "Star Trek," and died on Sunday at age 89.

Elon Musk is ribbing Joe Biden again — this time over the proposed Brittney Griner deal with Russia.

Pete Buttigieg got wonky with Pokémon and AI .

Donald Trump made a, uh, bizarre post on Truth Social in light of Biden's rebound Covid case.

TRANSITIONS — Nichole Wilson is now executive director of the Charlotte Lozier Institute at Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America. She most recently was counsel to the Senate Aging Committee, and is a Trump HUD alum. … Rebekah Rodriguez is now director of federal affairs at Boundary Stone Partners. She previously was senior legislative assistant for Rep. John Curtis (R-Utah) and deputy executive director of the Conservative Climate Caucus. … Paige Rusher is now a director at Seven Letter. She previously was press secretary for Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) and the Senate HELP Committee and is a Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) alum. …

Hannah Nine is joining Russell Fry's South Carolina congressional campaign as comms director. She previously was at Pinkston. … Newco Strategies is adding Emily Voorde as an associate director and Adaeze Nduaguba as a senior associate. Voorde most recently was at the White House Office of Public Engagement. … Kat DesCamp-Renner is now a government affairs associate at J Street. She previously was program assistant for Middle East policy at the Friends Committee on National Legislation.

ENGAGED — David Malton, a VP at Intermediate Capital Group (ICG), and Rachel Schindler, a co-founder of Punchbowl News and a POLITICO alum, got engaged on July 21 in the Catskills. The two were set up by friends when David moved to D.C. in 2015. Pic ... Another pic

WEEKEND WEDDING — Evelyn Farkas, executive director of the McCain Institute, and Mark Adams, director of business development at Population Services International, got married at the Coveleigh Club in Rye, N.Y., on Saturday. Pic SPOTTED: Jim Ludes, who officiated the ceremony, Rebecca and Pablo Chavez, Jim Townsend, Colleen Bell, Ken Mehlman, Carol Giacomo, Tony Burton, Lauren Vicary, Suzanne Nossel, Cathy Merrill, Jackie Bradford, Karl Schwenkmeyer, Camelia Mazard and Craig Kirby.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Josh Harder (D-Calif.), Van Taylor (R-Texas) (5-0) and Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.) … Howard Kurtz Ed Gillespie of AT&T … Mikayla DeMasi … CSIS' Andrew Schwartz … CEI's Travis BurkClare ForanJosie Duckett McSpadden of the Gates Foundation Karen MarangiDrew Littman of Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck … Roy Loewenstein … U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Philip GoldbergSheila KatzDana Zureikat Daoud of the Jordanian Embassy … Ellen Brown … Edelman's Jordan LubowitzBenji EnglanderMacaulay Porter of Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin's office … Christina Gungoll Lepore of Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt's D.C. office … Scott Evertz … Hayden Center's Larry Pfeiffer … POLITICO's Chris Buddie, Lara Korte, Tiffany McBurnie and Jackie Ramsay … E&E News' Hannah Northey … former Rep. Rick Boucher (D-Va.) … former Sen. Al D'Amato (R-N.Y.) … former Rep. Sue Myrick (R-N.C.) … Dan Shapiro of the Atlantic Council … Graeme Trayner of FGS Global … Martin Hamburger

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