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July 24th, 2022 | Issue 140 |
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We're in the dog days of summer. With the Fourth of July holiday getting further and further away in the rearview and still a month before the kids go back to school, we are all trying to soak in the last days of July. I've got two kids away at camp right now and I know they are looking to make the most of their summer before it's time to get back to homework, projects, and presentations. And just like them, I also want to enjoy the summer and the lovely weather. But even in the warmest and seemingly slow news-cycle periods, great traders are assessing the market and finding opportunities - making the most of their summer. So I am doing just that. Just this week, I held the latest Trading Discipline webinar to a full and captive audience. Inflation and recession are on everyone's mind and I broke down my latest reading of the situation. The webinar went swimmingly as we debriefed the latest economic reports and levels and even identified two unique, top trades for the upcoming week. I encourage all YellowTunnel subscribed to check it out: |
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YellowTunnel Trading Discipline On the economic news front, four straight positive sessions came to an end on Friday behind a few disappointing economic reports and little else to offset the rally-stopper. Many investors this week began to wonder if the latest boost in the market was a timely rally in a bear market or the restart of the bull market. While I can see why some would be motivated to see this as a restart, I am not buying that narrative and likely, I believe, we are still in a bear market. But this should not discourage; there is plenty of space to still make advances during bear times. Early earnings results have returned positively and cooled recession fears momentarily. Despite the fact that last month's CPI data showed a 9.1% inflation rise which added to the sense of economic pessimism, market reaction to recent employment, retail, and now earnings news has been favorable.
Netflix and Tesla earnings this week were certainly high marks as shares boomed following strong results. Next week's corporate earnings will also be plentiful with Microsoft, Google, Visa, Coca-Cola, and McDonald's releasing next Tuesday, while Apple, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Boeing, Qualcomm, MasterCard, and Pfizer will round the week in headline reports.
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Next week will also feature the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where another rate hike is expected. As I previously mentioned, investors are focusing on the latest bull run and the upcoming week's release-heavy schedule and wondering whether a bull market might develop. In my eyes, I do not believe the stock market will continue to climb, just as we saw on Friday, and this rally is nothing more than a bear market rally. To this point, I can't emphasize how vital it is for blog readers and members of the Yellow Tunnel community to keep referring to our Live Trading Room so as to maintain a close tie of how our AI platform is navigating us in and out of select trades. It's FREE and I want highly encourage everyone to sign up to the Live Trading Room and keep checking in throughout the trading day. Every Monday and Wednesday, I highlight my best strategies via the DISCORD server and in our live trading meeting room. It's the future of bringing together a trading community's total services, educational products, live chat venues, support, news, how-to tutorials, webinars, live-trading demonstrations, and tons of market analysis. It is incredibly interactive and full of crucial and timely information. Just go to: https://discord.gg/YjBfkaqGGu I also want to emphasize to traders how vital a stop-loss discipline is to winning and being successful in an unforgiving market. We employ specified stop-loss strategies with every trade. The buy and sell programs controlled by high-frequency related algorithms can create great profits or cause sudden losses, so it is imperative to maintain an element of controlling risk with each trade. |
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| | Vlad Karpel
YellowTunnel and Tradespoon Founder |
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P.S. Please see below for access to the Power Trading Live Strategy Roundtable presentation I recorded on Thursday, July 14th. Click Here P.P.S. Join our Discord Community to participate in our Free Live Market Collapse Trading Room Sessions every Monday and Wednesday at 8:15 am CST. Click Here To Join |
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Metals and Mining's likely boom brings me to one of my favorite symbols in this sector: Freeport-McMoRan Inc., (FCX.) Based in Arizona, this mining company put together a string of quarterly earnings which topped estimations going back as far as Q3 last year. After releasing its latest report on Thursday, shares dropped off as the company missed estimates and revenue. But no fear here, FCX has produced impressive rebounds in the past - and this situation seems like another such opportunity. Over the last five days, FCX gained almost 3% but fell off to end the week behind the underwhelming Q2 earnings data. Plugging FCX into my A.I. arsenal I am seeing several signs I like... |
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Apple to announce its earnings Thursday. |
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Last earning season I traded APPL on April 28th and I had a 34.6% return on risk. Let me repeat that, we had a 34.6% return on risk! That's a pretty good return after holding the position for only 1 day! Be prepared: Apple (APPL) is scheduled to announce its earnings on July 28th. This is my favorite time of year! Join me on the trading floor as we trade live. |
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CURRENT TRADING LANDSCAPE |
As of Friday, the 5-day chart shows the $SPY was trading 1.48% higher, near $394, and above the key long-term support – $380. While dropping off to end the week, S&P 500 was able to mostly hold its weekly gains. Oil traded slightly lower to end the week while gold moved higher. The $DXY traded lower on Friday, near the $106 level and $TLT traded higher throughout the week and continued to do so on Friday, near the $118 level. Taking the latest levels, I expect the short-term rally to continue in August but the bear market to resume downward momentum into September, possibly as late as October. Specifically, I am seeing the pullback in the dollar as a key indicator and supporter of a short-term rally in the cyclical and commodities sectors. The 20-year high the dollar recently hit, compounded with its pullback, should provide fuel for a short-term rally in the next two to four weeks... |
Looking at the report-heavy week coming up, I am picking a sector I believe can benefit the most from the short-term rally that is likely here for a few more weeks. With cyclical and commodities finding nice upward momentum, this sector is keen on moving parallel to such trends. Even with likely volatility ahead of us, as the Fed readies another hike, I believe this sector has the right criteria to pop. Metals and mining are set for short-term success despite any volatility that may come. No better ETF tracks this sector than the SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (XME.) This premier ETF is composed of aluminum, coal, copper, mining, gold, precious metals, silver, steel, and minerals. The fund is rebalanced quarterly and is equal-weighted and adjusted. |
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Market Collapse LIVE Trading Room Sessions Join Our Discord Community Every Monday and Wednesday at 8:15 am CST. Click Here To Join |
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NOTE: We encourage all subscribers to view the instructional videos on how to best use your membership and invite our members to participate in live weekly strategy roundtable workshops that are also archived for your convenience so that they can to be viewed at a later time. |
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To effectively trade in today's rapidly moving equity markets, active day traders and swing traders must stay ahead of market changes due to inflation, global uncertainty, politics, as well as innovations and technological changes used by hedge fund traders and proprietary trading firms. With traders like you in mind, we designed this intensive roundtable where you will deepen your understanding of all aspects of stock and options trading in today's changing market. |
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DISCLAIMER: Vlad and his team may have a financial interest in the picks as they trade many of the same equities and options they pick. Vlad Karpel and YellowTunnel (Company) is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. All investing strategies are made available to the general public on a regular basis. We do not provide personalized financial advice or investment recommendations. As an investor, you know that any kind of investment opportunity has its risks. There is no such thing as low-risk stocks and we recommend you invest wisely and that only risk capital should be used to trade. Investing in Stocks and Options is highly speculative. No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed here and on our website. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE SUCCESS: It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators developed at YellowTunnel will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Nor should it be assumed that future picks will be profitable or will equal past performance. All of the content on our website and in our email alerts is for informational purposes only, and should not be construed as an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell securities. Remember, you should always consult with a licensed securities professional before purchasing or selling securities of companies profiled or discussed on YellowTunnel.com. Performance results that are discussed above are from the Live Trading Room, multiple YellowTunnel tools were used to achieve these results. Trade % Gain/Loss is calculated by dividing the $ Gain/Loss by the Max Risk which is the posted Stop Loss for the trade. Yellow Tunnel's performance data represents the average return on all trading recommendations from January 1, 2020, to today. *Win rate percentage reflects the average that Yellow Tunnel's software helped me identify a profitable investment strategy.** Triple-digit returns are not typical and are not intended to reflect the likelihood of similar returns in the future. |
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