| | | | | | | Presented By Google | | | | Axios AM | | By Mike Allen · Jul 24, 2022 | | 🥞 Happy Sunday. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,196 words ... 4½ mins. Edited by Jennifer Koons. Situational awareness: The World Health Organization declared monkeypox, which has spread to 70+ countries, a global emergency. The U.S. currently has nearly 3,000 cases. The WHO said about 98% of cases beyond Africa involve men who have sex with men. Go deeper. | | | | | | 1 big thing: How to dodge a recession |  | | | Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios | | | | The U.S. economy is throttled by inflation, volatile markets and weaker activity — all suggesting growth is softening but hasn't fallen off of a cliff, writes Javier E. David, Axios managing editor for business. - Consumer spending and job creation remain robust, contributing to what Axios' Neil Irwin recently called the "great weirdness" of our current economy.
Why it matters: That same weirdness has opened a gulf between what official data reflects and the perceptions of consumers — who are relatively flush with cash, but ravaged by white-hot prices. What's happening: The irony is that consumers, though in a glum mood, are keeping growth and inflation afloat by continuing to spend. That, in turn, has emboldened companies to pass that along in higher prices. - The labor market is as tight as it's ever been, awash in unfilled positions. The economy is generating above-average jobs growth despite spiking prices.
- "Net, net, consumers are still spending their hearts out, which keeps the recession from becoming a reality," FWDBonds chief economist Chris Rupkey said.
👀 What we're watching: U.S. gross domestic product figures due on Thursday may show that the economy posted its second consecutive quarter of contraction — satisfying the textbook definition of recession, even if officials are loath to deem it such. - Even if this week's GDP number is negative, it's unlikely to settle the raging recession debate. It could take months or longer for the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) — the official arbiter — to make a formal declaration.
The NBER's criteria are a bit different from conventional metrics of what constitutes a recession. - With unemployment still historically low and consumers still opening their wallets with reckless abandon, the NBER's more stringent benchmarks haven't been met — as far as we know.
Share this story. |     | | | | | | 2. 📷 California's biggest fire of year | | Matt Garr via Reuters View from an aircraft: This is the Oak Fire near Yosemite National Park, as seen from above Yosemite Valley, Calif., on Friday. - The explosive fire is California's largest this year — "a fast-moving inferno tearing through the Sierra Nevada foothills ... [It] has burned at least 10 structures, forced several thousand people to flee their homes and is threatening multiple mountain communities." —L.A. Times
Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images: View from the ground: Cal Fire trucks navigate the Oak Fire yesterday near Mariposa, Calif. — near Yosemite, and the southernmost of the Gold Rush chain of towns. | | | | | | | | 3. 🏛️ Summer democracy drama | | Exhibit: House Select Committee via AP The image above, shown during Thursday's prime-time hearing of the House Jan. 6 committee, depicts the dining room off the Oval Office where President Trump watched TV during much of the Capitol attack. - The chef's kiss is the committee's depiction of Fox News coverage on the flat-screen TV.
Why it matters: The dining-room animation — an aerial view showed the dining room's location in the West Wing — reflects the elaborate production values the committee has brought to the hearings. 📊 By the numbers: Nielsen says 17.7 million viewers watched Thursday's hearing — down from the 20 million who watched the other prime-time hearing, on June 9, AP's David Bauder reports. - An estimated 13.6 million of Thursday's hearing viewers — 77% — were age 55+. Only 705,000 viewers were 18 to 34.
The six daytime hearings averaged 11.2 million viewers, with a peak audience of 13.2 million on June 28, when Cassidy Hutchinson testified. | | | | | | | | A message from Google | | Google helps candidates and campaigns stay safe online | | |  | | | | Targeted online attacks on political campaigns have increased in recent years. In the run-up to the 2022 elections, the Google Campaign Security Project aims to train candidates and campaigns across the political spectrum on security best practices to help keep them safe. Learn more. | | | | | | 4. 🔮 What's next: Electric aviation |  | | | Regent's Viceroy concept would glide above the water, linking coastal communities. Image: Regent Craft | | | | All-electric "seagliders" could someday offer fast, low-altitude flights in coastal communities and the Hawaiian Islands, Joann Muller writes for Axios What's Next. - Why it matters: Electric aviation is the next frontier in the movement of people and goods.
What's happening: Better batteries, lighter-weight materials and other innovations — plus huge capital investments — are opening the door to novel and lower-emissions transportation solutions like flying taxis, drones and seagliders. - "It's a space race all over again," Billy Thalheimer, CEO of seaglider startup Regent Craft, tells Axios.
Boston-based Regent is partnering with Hawaiian carrier Mokulele Airlines and investment firm Pacific Current to create a seaglider network in Hawaii. - Service is expected to begin by 2025 with a fleet of 12-passenger Viceroy seagliders that will fly like pelicans, about 10 to 30 feet over the water, at speeds of up to 180 miles per hour.
- Hawaiian Airlines recently invested in Regent, with an eye toward building a 100-person version of the craft by 2028.
- The idea is to offer a cheaper, faster, cleaner alternative to existing ferries and regional air service.
Seagliders are neither fish nor fowl — while they fly at low altitudes, they're expected to be regulated by maritime authorities, which could mean an easier path to commercialization, says Thalheimer. - Operating a seaglider will be more like driving a boat than piloting an aircraft, he says.
Share this story. | | | | | | | | 5. 🗳️ Why "Stop the Steal" could outlive Trump |  | | | Outside the Pennsylvania Convention Center in Philadelphia on Nov. 6, 2020, as presidential votes were counted. Photo: Mark Peterson/Redux for The New York Times | | | | The militaristic rallies are gone for now. The audits and inquiries are over. - But the "movement to reinstate President Trump has gone far beyond him" with "a new wave of post-Trump activism on the right," Charles Homans writes in the N.Y. Times Magazine (subscription).
Using the good-government language of "election integrity," the movement's "attentions have shifted from the last election to the next one, and the one beyond that," Homans writes: [T]he politicians who have thrived in the new movement have not necessarily been the ones who are most unstinting in their personal devotion to Trump, but rather the ones ... who have placed Trump's election claims in a context much larger than Trump himself. 🚨 Breaking: An Atlanta-area criminal investigation into efforts by Trump and his allies to overturn his election loss in Georgia appears headed toward "a broad case that could target multiple defendants with charges of conspiracy to commit election fraud, or racketeering-related charges for engaging in a coordinated scheme to undermine the election," the N.Y. Times reports. - Norm Eisen, special counsel to the House Judiciary Committee during the first Trump impeachment, says Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis could be headed toward "one of the most important criminal RICO cases ever brought in United States history."
| | | | | | | | 6. 📺 Tuning out All-Stars |  Data: Sports Media Watch. Chart: Baidi Wang and Simran Parwani/Axios Fewer and fewer people are tuning in to watch All-Star Games across the Big Four sports leagues, Jeff Tracy writes in Axios Sports. - Tuesday night's Major League Baseball All-Star Game from L.A. averaged 7.51 million viewers on Fox, peaking at 8.24 million — a record low for the Midsummer Classic.
But that's still the largest audience among Big Four All-Star Games, all of which have seen their audiences dwindle over the past two decades: - 🏒 NHL All-Star Game: Down 57.1% since 2002.
- 🏀 NBA All-Star Game: Down 48.9% since 2002.
- ⚾️ MLB All-Star Game: Down 48.7% since 2002.
- 🏈 NFL Pro Bowl: Down 4.2% since 2002 (but down ~50% from the early 2010s peak).
Between the lines: With more viewing options, sports fans are tuning out relatively meaningless — albeit fun and star-studded — exhibition games. | | | | | | | | A message from Google | | Protecting websites and organizations from digital attacks | | |  | | | | Project Shield protects news and human rights organizations, government entities, and more from Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks. These digital attacks are used by bad actors and cyber criminals to censor information by taking websites offline. Learn more. | | | | 📬 Invite your friends to sign up here for their daily essentials — Axios AM, PM and Finish Line. |  | | Are you a fan of this email format? It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 300 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications. | | | |
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