😵It’s Officially a Recession, Here’s Why It Could Get Worse

Good morning. Three months ago, when the first-quarter 2022 GDP numbers showed an unexpected...

It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. Three months ago, when the first-quarter 2022 GDP numbers showed an unexpected drop, we went ahead and called it a recession. That's now official (at least by the government's definition), now that there's been a second quarterly decline in a row. While some are saying it's not really a recession… or only a technical recession… things certainly don't look bad with a -0.9 percent drop. It's not as steep as in the first quarter, after all. But nothing moves in a straight line. Interest rates are now at their highest levels since 2019, when the Fed stopped raising rates during the last cycle. And we're only just beginning to see a slowdown in home prices and home sales, which will weigh heavily on the US economy in the third quarter and beyond. While markets have calmed down in recent weeks, we're not out of the woods yet. And until the data indicates that things might get better – such as a steep drop in inflation, it may get worse. Now here's the rest of the news: Sponsored Content Want Bear Market Riches? Do This… The bear market hasn't stopped Andrew Keene from making money all year long. And he doesn't even need to short stocks… Since February 15, Andrew has posted a win rate of 72% on closed positions... Trading ONLY CALL OPTIONS in a bear market. In the Trade Room, his followers have seen gains of 48%, 56%, and even 100% in as little as 15 minutes. And they get as many as 10 day-trading ideas EACH DAY, hand-selected by Andrew himself. Access to this coveted club just opened up for the first time ever. Now, you can follow along with Andrew every morning and watch your portfolio grow before lunchtime. To hear more about this opportunity, click here. MARKETS DOW 32,529.63 +1.03% S&P 4,072.43 +1.21% NASDAQ 12,162.59 +1.08% *As of market close • Stocks rallied again on Thursday, even as GDP declined for a second quarter in a row. • Oil dipped 0.2 percent, closing at $97.03 per barrel. • Gold rose 2.0 percent, last going for $1,772 per ounce. • Cryptocurrencies jumped higher, with Bitcoin at $23,819 at the stock market close. Today's TOP TIPS Stick With Earnings Winners in Today's Economy Earnings season is coming in mixed. It often does. In a bull market, a few misses can be written off. In a bear market… companies that miss tend to get punished. While that creates a potential buying opportunity, companies that miss in multiple quarters could be in for some rough performance. Traders looking for companies moving higher ahead of the rest of the market should focus on companies beating on earnings now. » FULL STORY Insider Trading Report: Conagra Brands Inc (CAG) Emanuel Chirico, a director at Conagra Brands Inc (CAG), recently picked up 30,000 shares. The buy increased his stake by just over 29 percent, and came to a total purchase price just over $1.02 million. This purchase marks the last insider buy since last July. There have only been a few modest buys from insiders over the past three years. For the most part, company insiders, including both directors and executives, have largely been sellers of shares. » FULL STORY Unusual Options Activity: Shopify (SHOP) Shares of online retailer Shopify (SHOP) have shed nearly 80 percent of their value in the past year as tech stock valuations have dropped. One trader sees shares potentially stabilizing and moving higher from here. That's based on the November $25 calls. With 112 days until expiration, 25,039 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 115, for a staggering 218-fold jump in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $12.35 to get in. » FULL STORY IN OTHER NEWS • Economy Sinks for Second Quarter in a Row The US economy shrank at a 0.9 percent annualized rate in the second quarter of 2022. Rising prices, rising interest rates, and slowing consumer spending contributed to the cause. This is the second quarter in a row of a declining economy, which fits the definition of a recession, although some economists are pointing out this may be more technical than factual. • JetBlue Agrees to Buy Spirit Airlines In a deal that will create the 5th largest airline carrier in the US, JetBlue (JBLU) has made an agreement to buy Spirit Airlines (SAVE). The deal is valued at $3.8 billion, and was announced following a prolonged bidding war between JetBlue and Frontier Group (ULCC). • Meta Reports First-Ever Revenue Decline Meta Platforms (META), the parent company of Facebook and Snapchat, has reported its first ever revenue decline. The company brought in $28.8 billion for the second quarter of 2022, a 1 percent decline compared to the first quarter. That's the company's first revenue drop since it went public 10 years ago. • Climate Spending Deal Sends Solar Stocks Rising A potential deal has been reached on climate spending in the US Senate. Under the proposed deal, a package of about $369 billion on climate and energy provisions will be passed, looking to increase the implementation of green energy technologies. A number of stocks, particularly solar stocks, rose on the news. • Smartphone Sales Slide in China In a further sign that the global economy is slowing down, data indicates that smartphone sales in China have dropped 14.2 percent year-over-year. That's the lowest total sales since the iPhone 5 launched in China in 2012, and a 13 percent drop compared to the sharp decline in sales at the start of the pandemic. S&P 500 MOVERS TOP CEG 16.316% ETSY 9.864% AES  9.484% ROL 9.078% EQIX 9.062% BOTTOM SWK 16.066% CINF 13.908% BAX 10.928% CMCSA  9.131% CHTR 8.48% Quote of the Day For the most part, what's really driving this move is that the economy is still performing okay and it looks like the Fed is probably going to slow the pace of tightening down by the next policy meeting. I do not think the U.S. is currently in a recession and the reason is there are too many areas of the economy that are performing too well. - Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, on why the Fed will likely pivot at its next meeting, and why the stock market may break its downtrend as a result. Sponsored Content Want Bear Market Riches? Do This… The bear market hasn't stopped Andrew Keene from making money all year long. And he doesn't even need to short stocks… Since February 15, Andrew has posted a win rate of 72% on closed positions... Trading ONLY CALL OPTIONS in a bear market. In the Trade Room, his followers have seen gains of 48%, 56%, and even 100% in as little as 15 minutes. And they get as many as 10 day-trading ideas EACH DAY, hand-selected by Andrew himself. Access to this coveted club just opened up for the first time ever. Now, you can follow along with Andrew every morning and watch your portfolio grow before lunchtime. 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