🗳️ Building a Roe firewall

Plus: 7 Trump allies subpoenaed | Tuesday, July 05, 2022

Open in app View in browser     Axios Sneak Peek By Alayna Treene, Hans Nichols and Zachary Basu · Jul 05, 2022 Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,036 words ... 4 minutes. Breaking: Vice President Kamala Harris is making a surprise stop on her Chicago trip to deliver remarks in Highland Park, Illinois, where a gunman killed seven people and wounded 30 at a July 4 parade yesterday. Situational awareness: The Jan. 6 committee's next hearing — expected to focus on the role of extremist groups in the Capitol attack — will take place on July 12 beginning at 10am ET.     1 big thing: 2022's Roe firewall Illustration: Allie Carl/Axios   The ACLU is launching an unprecedented, multimillion-dollar midterms initiative aimed at influencing the makeup of state Supreme Courts and district attorneys in battleground states where abortion access is on the line, Axios' Alexi McCammond has learned. Why it matters: The Roe v. Wade reversal by the U.S. Supreme Court empowered states to decide abortion rights. Down-ballot races that rarely get national attention — as well as a record number of abortion-related ballot measures — are now viewed as the last line of defense in the fight to protect reproductive rights. "We're looking at those states where we can create a firewall," Kary Moss, the ACLU's political director, told Axios. Zoom in: The ACLU is a nonprofit organization committed to defending civil rights and doesn't endorse candidates. Instead, the group plans to host town halls and deploy staff across the country to educate voters about the upcoming ballot initiatives. The ACLU is also launching digital, TV and radio ad campaigns highlighting judges' records on abortion and past statements they've made about women's rights. "It's not our job to tell people who to vote for, or to retain any one judge," Micah Kubic, executive director of the ACLU Kansas chapter, told Axios. "It's to make sure folks have information about civil liberties, constitutional concepts and can make an informed decision." What we're watching: There are nine state Supreme Court seats up for grabs across Ohio, Michigan, Montana, Kansas and Kentucky — top targets for the ACLU due to the likelihood those courts will deal with abortion litigation. "To the extent the state Supreme Court races become a live wire — and we think they will — then it's our duty to make sure folks have accurate information," Kubic said. District attorneys — many of whom will soon be in the position of determining whether to charge someone accused of violating an abortion ban — are another focus this cycle. The ACLU is involved in DA races in North Carolina, Nevada, Tennessee and Arizona. As for ballot measures, the first real test will be on Aug. 2, when Kansas will hold a vote on a constitutional amendment that would impose a total abortion ban. (The Kansas Bill of Rights currently protects abortion access.) In Kentucky and Vermont, November ballot measures will ask voters to amend the state constitution to clarify whether a right to abortion exists. The ACLU is also mobilizing in Michigan — where 25,000 new volunteers signed up after the Supreme Court's leaked draft opinion overturning Roe — to collect signatures for a ballot initiative that would enshrine "reproductive freedom" in the state's constitution. Share this story.     2. 🇺🇸 Mapped: High court diversity Data: Bren­nan Center for Justice. Map: Baidi Wang/Axios In 20 states, there are no high court justices who identify as a person of color, according to data from the Brennan Center for Justice reviewed by Axios' Stef Kight. As of May 18, just 18% of state high court justices were Black, Latino, Asian Amer­ican, Native Amer­ican or multiracial — compared to more than 40% of the U.S. population. Data: Brennan Center for Justice. Map: Nicki Camberg/Axios In 10 of the 13 states with "trigger laws" banning abortion after the U.S. Supreme Court ruling, women make up less than 50% of justices on the state Supreme Courts. That includes Mississippi (11%) and Louisiana (14%), which have the lowest percentage of female justices in the country. Share this data.     3. 💰 Dems' post-Roe cash surge Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios   Democratic House campaigns in closely watched swing districts have seen a surge of donations — and new donors — in the wake of the decision to overturn Roe, Axios' Andrew Solender reports: New York House candidate Pat Ryan raised over $1 million in the six weeks since announcing his campaign, nearly 40% of which came in the week following the ruling. Ryan, who is running in the August special election in New York's 19th District, told Axios his race is "the first competitive congressional election in a post-Roe world" — and that he plans to put abortion at "the center" of his campaign. Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.) raised over $1 million between April and June, her best quarter of the cycle, her spokesperson Sarah Carlson told Axios. Rep. Angie Craig's (D-Minn.) campaign saw a three-fold increase in text donations and a 60% increase in donations generated by Facebook ads. Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Kan.) raised $100,000 in June, her best fundraising month of the cycle — driven by $20,000 raised after the ruling from texts alone. It's not just House campaigns — the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, for instance, "broke cycle-long records" with its online content immediately following the ruling, according to a DSCC aide. The Democratic Governors Association said it raised $1 million in the week following the Dobbs decision — 10% of its overall fundraising in the first six months of 2022. A total of $89 million was raised on ActBlue, the go-to online fundraising platform for Democrats, between 10:30am on June 24 — the day of the decision — and the end of June, spokesperson Mike Naple told Axios. Share this story.     A message from Axios The podcast to power your day.     Catch up on the biggest stories of the day and why they matter with the Axios Today podcast. Host Niala Boodhoo is joined by journalists from Axios' newsroom to unpack the stories shaping your world and the trends shaping our time. Listen for free.     4. 🌊 Wave watch: Biden's polls in context Data: RealClearPolitics via Steve Kornacki; Chart: Kavya Beheraj/Axios MSNBC's election guru Steve Kornacki points out that former President Trump's approval rating was five points better than President Biden's on this day in 2018 — four months before Democrats netted 38 House seats in a "blue wave" election. Former President Obama's approval was eight points better than Biden's at this point in his first term, but that didn't stop Republicans from gaining 64 seats in the historic 2010 midterms.     5. 👀 One to watch: 7 Trump allies subpoenaed Screenshot via MSNBC Seven Trump allies and advisers were subpoenaed as part of the Fulton County district attorney's criminal investigation into the former president's efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election in Georgia. Among them were Rudy Giuliani and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). Go deeper.     A message from Axios The podcast to power your day.     Catch up on the biggest stories of the day and why they matter with the Axios Today podcast. Host Niala Boodhoo is joined by journalists from Axios' newsroom to unpack the stories shaping your world and the trends shaping our time. Listen for free.   📬 Thanks for reading! Send us tips or feedback by hitting reply to this newsletter or emailing us at sneak@axios.com. 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