Wednesday, May 4, 2022

Vance wins big and SCOTUS breach rocks Washington

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May 04, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook

By Eugene Daniels

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WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 03: Pro-choice and anti-abortion activists confront one another in front of the U.S. Supreme Court Building on May 03, 2022 in Washington, DC. In a leaked initial draft majority opinion obtained by Politico, and authenticated by Chief Justice John Roberts, Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito wrote that the cases Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood of Southeastern Pennsylvania v. Casey should be overturned, which would end federal protection of abortion rights across the   country. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Washington erupted on Tuesday over news that the Supreme Court is poised to strike down Roe v. Wade. | Win McNamee/Getty Images

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DRIVING THE DAY

BREAKING OVERNIGHT — J.D. VANCE easily prevailed in the Ohio GOP Senate primary — a big early win for DONALD TRUMP in the endorsement sweepstakes. Alex Isenstadt has the definitive backstory on how Vance pulled it off: "A mole hunt, a secret website and Peter Thiel's big risk: How J.D. Vance won his primary"

More on this and the other action from Ohio and Indiana primaries below …

THE FALLOUT — On Monday night, we learned that the Supreme Court has prepared a draft opinion that would overturn Roe v. Wade.

On Tuesday, that development shook every corner of official Washington.

AT THE SUPREME COURT: Chief Justice JOHN ROBERTS ordered an investigation into how the document got out. Kyle Cheney this morning offers a look at how it might play out — and some of the big unanswered questions given that this has never happened before.

ON CAPITOL HILL — On the right: "McConnell closes in on Roe after years of pushing the courts rightward," by Burgess Everett … In the center: "Collins and Murkowski on the defensive after leaked Roe draft opinion," by WaPo's Mike DeBonis and Seung Min Kim On the left: "What can Dems do if Roe v. Wade is overturned? Not much," by Alice Miranda Ollstein and Megan Messerly

IN THE WHITE HOUSE: HARRIS SEES HER MOMENT — On her first day back in public since testing positive for the coronavirus last week, VP KAMALA HARRIS spoke to a crowd of abortion rights supporters at the EMILY's List conference Tuesday evening. Her speech, scheduled long in advance, had to be completely rewritten for obvious reasons.

Harris gave a preview of how the administration hopes to frame the debate — channeling its supporters' outrage while pitching the midterm election as a choice between two very different views of abortion rights. Key quotes:

This moment marks a rare chance for Harris to step into the spotlight and use the bully pulpit to voice the anger so many Democrats feel. For months, some on the left have gnashed their teeth at President JOE BIDEN's apparent reticence to even say the word "abortion" in public.

  • "Our party hasn't figured out the best way to invite people into the conversation," ALENCIA JOHNSON, a Democratic strategist who worked as a senior adviser to the Biden campaign, told Playbook on Tuesday night. She saw the Harris speech as a potential turning point. "I'm hopeful this is the energy she and the president will bring to this fight."
  • Let Harris be Harris: If Democratic voters are going to be galvanized by the Supreme Court in the same way that Republican voters have traditionally been, it may be up to the White House to make it happen. And, says Johnson, there's one obvious thing the administration can do toward that end: "Let [Harris] loose."

One thing of note from Tuesday's fallout: White House officials have dodged whether the administration would call for a filibuster carve-out to codify abortion rights. Either way, it's highly unlikely it could get through the Senate.

— Speaking of which … Laura and Alice look at what activists are looking for from the White House absent legislation: (1) getting the FDA to lift restrictions on abortion pills, (2) directing DOJ to "crack down on states attempting to ban pregnant people from leaving the state for the procedure" and (3) improving contraception access.

TOP-ED — "Overturning Roe Is a Radical, Not Conservative, Choice," by NYT's Bret Stephens

NEW POLLING ON SCOTUS AND ROE — In the wake of the news about the draft opinion overturning Roe, a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll reveals that a clear majority of voters want the court to support abortion rights. Highlights from the poll, conducted Tuesday entirely after the news broke: 

  • Fifty-seven percent of voters want SCOTUS to support abortion rights, 28% hope it opposes them, and 15% don't know or have no opinion. Net support: +29
  • Fifty-six percent of voters believe abortion should be legal in "most" or "all cases." Twenty-five percent of voters said they think abortion should be legal in all cases, 31% said legal in most cases, 24% said illegal in most cases, 11% said illegal in all cases, and 9% either don't know or had no opinion. Net support: +21

A chart shows the number of reported abortions per 1,000 women ages 15-44 in hospitals and ambulatory care facilities, including clinics. The true number of abortions is likely larger, as not all abortions are reported.

Voters also say they're ready to back major reforms of the judiciary:

  • Term limits for justices: Sixty-six percent strongly or somewhat approve; 21% strongly or somewhat disapprove. Net approval: +45
  • Placing an age cap on justices: Sixty-four percent approve; 22% disapprove. Net approval: +42
  • Binding justices to a code of ethics: Seventy-three percent approve; 11% disapprove. Net approval: +62
  • Balancing the court with equal numbers of Democrats, Republicans and independents: Fifty-seven percent approve; 28% disapprove. Net approval: +29
  • Expanding the number of justices on the court: Fifty-five percent approve; 36% disapprove. Net approval: +19

Toplines Crosstabs More takeaways from Steven Shepard

Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade , Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

A message from Amazon:

In America, only 23% of workers have access to paid parental leave, which means new parents miss out on bonding with their babies. That number is even worse for low-income workers. Amazon offers up to 20 weeks of fully paid leave for hourly employees like Julie. "It was a relief to know we didn't have to worry about work during a very stressful time," she said.

 

TRUMP DELIVERS A WIN FOR VANCE IN OHIO — Tuesday's primaries in Ohio and Indiana offer "the first meaningful glimpse of GOP's emerging shape in the post-Donald Trump presidential era," write David Siders and Adam Wren. Among their top takeaways from the night:

"J.D. Vance's victory in the Ohio Senate primary on Tuesday was an unmistakable victory for Trump. … It's fair to say Trump's endorsement put Vance over the top. That matters for two reasons. First, we're still early in the primary season, and Republicans in other states are closely watching Ohio. The Vance victory will keep the premium on Trump's brand, while Trump-critical Republicans will have every incentive not to draw many distinctions with the former president. Second, Trump is obsessed with his win-loss record in the midterms. His victory in Ohio, the first major test of his influence, is setting a tone."

Vance becomes the immediate favorite against Democratic Rep. TIM RYAN in the general.

More results from Tuesday night:

  • Ohio Gov. MIKE DEWINE, persona non grata in Trump world, won the GOP nomination for a second term. Trump shied away from endorsing a primary challenger, and DeWine was aided by "a divided and comparatively underfunded opposition," writes Cleveland.com's Jeremy Pelzer. He'll face Democratic nominee NAN WHALEY, the former mayor of Dayton.
  • Democratic Rep. SHONTEL BROWN defeated former state Sen. NINA TURNER in a primary that drew national attention for its establishment-vs.-progressives fault lines. Brown had the support of, among others, Biden and House Majority Whip JIM CLYBURN (D-S.C.); Turner, who was national co-chair of Sen. BERNIE SANDERS' (I-Vt.) 2020 presidential campaign, was endorsed by a number of lefty leaders, including Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D-N.Y.). More from AP ICYMI, from earlier Tuesday: "House rematch in Ohio sparks frustration on the left," by Brakkton Booker
 

A message from Amazon:

Amazon's parental leave policy helps employees navigate the challenges of parenthood and offers options to ease back to work on their own terms.

 

BIDEN'S WEDNESDAY:

— 10:15 a.m.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief.

— 11:30 a.m.: Biden and first lady JILL BIDEN will welcome members of Team USA from the most recent two Olympics and Paralympics to the White House.

— 2 p.m.: Biden will deliver remarks on the economy and deficit reduction. More from the AP here.

— 3:30 p.m.: Biden and Harris will receive the weekly economic briefing.

Press secretary JEN PSAKI will brief at 2:30 p.m.

The SENATE is in. HHS Secretary XAVIER BECERRA, DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS, Energy Secretary JENNIFER GRANHOLM and VA Secretary DENIS MCDONOUGH will testify before Appropriations subcommittees at 9:30 a.m., 10 a.m., 10 a.m. and 3:30 p.m., respectively. Mayorkas will also testify before the Homeland Security Committee at 2:30 p.m.

The HOUSE is out.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Relatives hug each other after arriving from the Ukrainian city of Mariupol at a center for displaced people in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, Tuesday, May 3, 2022. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)

Relatives hug each other after arriving from the Ukrainian city of Mariupol at a center for displaced people in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, Tuesday. | Evgeniy Maloletka/AP Photo

PLAYBOOK READS

ALL POLITICS

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK I — DAVE LOPEZ, an attorney for a Nebraska state senator who is suing gubernatorial candidate CHARLES HERBSTER for sexual battery, intends to subject Herbster senior adviser KELLYANNE CONWAY to discovery in the case, he told Daniel Lippman.

Lopez, who represents state Sen. JULIE SLAMA, said he hopes to find out what Conway, who has worked for Herbster for a year, knew about the underlying allegations and when she knew it. Contacted by POLITICO, Conway declined to comment. A spokesperson for Herbster's campaign also declined to comment.

Slama has accused Herbster of groping her at a 2019 political dinner, an allegation he denies. An additional seven women have also accused Herbster of groping them at either political events or beauty pageants, which he also denies. After Herbster sued Slama for defamation, she counter-sued him for sexual battery.

Herbster, a Trump-endorsed candidate whose primary is Tuesday, will be deposed Friday in the Slama case. Conway's potential deposition has not yet been scheduled. Trump's endorsement has not given Herbster a huge lift in the race, and Herbster is in a statistical tie with JIM PILLEN (who is backed by Nebraska Gov. PETE RICKETTS) and state Sen. BRETT LINDSTROM.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK II — Natalie Allison writes in: Though many national observers left his Senate campaign for dead after Trump pulled his support in March, Alabama Rep. MO BROOKS is showing strong signs of life. Today, he's out with a new statewide ad touting a major endorsement in his Senate campaign: the National Rifle Association.

The 30-second spot features audio and video from the aftermath of the shooting at a 2017 practice ahead of the congressional baseball game. In it, minutes after a gunman opened fire on the Republicans, Brooks reiterated his support for gun rights, saying he "wasn't changing" his position. The ad is similar to one Brooks ran in his unsuccessful 2017 Senate bid, though this time, it's accompanied by the NRA's endorsement.

In Alabama's competitive primary, the backing of the powerful gun-rights group may give Brooks a much-needed boost. KATIE BRITT, one of Brooks' opponents and the former chief of staff to retiring Sen. RICHARD SHELBY, received a top rating from the NRA on Tuesday, but has no voting record on which to hang an endorsement. MIKE DURANT, who has recently led in polling ahead of Alabama's May 24 primary, has been forced to defend past comments on gun control. Trump has said he plans to endorse one of Brooks' opponents — though as tight as the race still appears to be, it's possible he'll wait until just before a likely runoff election to do so.

 

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Amazon's paid leave policy gives parents peace of mind. "My parental leave was paid, so we didn't have to worry about anything," said Kiddrick.

 

TRUMP CARDS

FOR YOUR RADAR — Trump's DHS "delayed and altered an intelligence report related to Russian interference in the 2020 election, making changes that 'appear to be based in part on political considerations,'" CNN's Priscilla Alvarez and Zachary Cohen report, citing a new watchdog report.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

BIDEN'S CHINA EQUATION — Officials in the administration are "split on whether to pare back tariffs on imports from China in an effort to cut consumer costs and reduce inflation," WSJ's Andrew Duehren, Yuka Hayashi and Alex Leary report.

— The divide: "On one side of the debate within the administration are Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN and Commerce Secretary GINA RAIMONDO, who favor easing the tariffs on some of the roughly $360 billion annually of Chinese imports put in place under the Trump administration, according to people familiar with the matter. On the other are Trade Representative KATHERINE TAI and others who are reluctant to relinquish U.S. leverage over China in a continuing effort to reshape Chinese economic behavior, according to the people."

— Where the president lands: "Biden has been undecided on the question, but has recently revisited the issue as the White House looks to reduce the highest inflation in four decades."

 

INTRODUCING DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED:  Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Lisa Murkowski was seen dashing into the closing door of a Senate subway car. (The pictures are iconic, tbh.)

Jon Karl (and many others) tested positive for the coronavirus after attending the White House Correspondents' Association dinner. Karl sat next to Kim Kardashian, and shook Joe Biden's hand.

IN MEMORIAM — "Norman Y. Mineta, Who Served Two Presidents in Cabinet, Dies at 90," by NYT's Robert McFadden: "Norman Y. Mineta, who as a boy was interned with his family and thousands of other Japanese Americans during World War II, then rose in government to become a 10-term Democratic congressman from California and a cabinet official under Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, died on Tuesday at his home in Edgewater, Md. He was 90. John Flaherty, his former chief of staff, said the cause was a heart ailment."

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — First lady Jill Biden will be the first guest on Symone Sanders' new MSNBC show, airing at 4 p.m. Saturday.

Rebekah Goshorn Jurata and Brandy Jackson are joining the American Investment Council. Jurata will be general counsel and previously was a board member of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board. Jackson will be director of digital strategy and content and previously was corporate partnerships and creative director of Busboys and Poets.

SPOTTED at the EMILY's List conference: Second gentleman Doug Emhoff, Sens. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii), Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), María Teresa Kumar, Maya Harris, Emmy Ruiz, Jessica Post, Jen O'Malley Dillon, Patrick Gaspard, Maya Wiley and Christie Roberts.

NEW NOMINEES — The White House announced several new nominations: Carlos Felipe Uriarte as assistant A.G. for legislative affairs, Gerald Acker as commissioner and chair of the International Joint Commission, and Annie Caputo and Bradley Crowell for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

TRANSITIONS — Adam Fischer is now a senior director for Waxman Strategies' environmental policy practice. He previously was a professional staff member for the House Energy and Commerce Committee. … Jill Lesser is joining Finsbury Glover Hering as a partner in the Washington office. She previously was VP of corporate comms and brand strategy at National Geographic Partners. …

… Lindsey Johnson will be the new president and CEO of the Consumer Bankers Association. She currently is president of the U.S. Mortgage Insurers. … Alex Mukai is now deputy digital director for Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). He previously was digital and press assistant for Chrissy Houlahan (D-Pa.).

WEEKEND WEDDING — Melissa Beaty, SVP at FleishmanHillard, and Trey Tate, a manager at Kearney & Co., got married Saturday at Our Lady of Mercy in Potomac, with a reception at the Hay-Adams. The two met in 2013 at Clemson University on the dance floor of a sweetheart party for Tate's fraternity. Beaty's roommate, bridesmaid Becca Reedy, had been trying to set the two up for months, a suggestion Beaty laughed off. The bridal party was disappointed they didn't run into Kim Kardashian and Pete Davidson, who were rumored to be staying at the Hay-Adams for the WHCD. Someone did, however, catch Fat Joe outside the hotel. He wished the couple well. Pic, by Kurstin Roe Photography SPOTTED: Maeve Bracken, Keegan Bales, Rachel "Buck" Buckly, Kelly Beaty, Brian Beaty and Lennox Smith.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-Texas) … former Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.) … National Association of Manufacturers' Jay Timmons (6-0) … George WillMitchell Rivard of Rep. Dan Kildee's (D-Mich.) office … Eliot Nelson … Reuters' Ted HessonKelly LoveShana Mansbach of Speaker Nancy Pelosi's office … Allison BormelTodd Stern of Brookings … CNN's Polson KannethEllen Qualls … Stat's Erin MershonJason Kander Cyrus Pearson of the Senate Republican Conference … Andy KarellasKatie BartizalKaty QuinnSara-Paige Silvestro of Sen. Bob Casey's (D-Pa.) office … former Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Hawaii) … Nancy Ayers … Black Rock Group's Charlotte McCoyAkmal AliTerrell Halaska of HCM Strategists … WaPo's Kathy O'HearnKristin Engdahl Zipay of the Association of American Medical Colleges … Megan Stackhouse of "Today" show comms … No Labels' Ansley BradenMichael DiRoma of DiRoma and Eck (4-0) … NRCC's Allie Berding (24)

 

A message from Amazon:

When Kiddrick and Julie's daughter was born, Amazon's paid leave policy allowed them to spend precious time with her, without having to deal with the loss of a paycheck.

"I made sure I spent every minute with her," said Kiddrick.

 
 

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