Wednesday, May 18, 2022

Takeaways from the biggest primary night of the year

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POLITICO Playbook

By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza

Presented by

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With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

Signs point the way for voters to cast their ballots at the polling location for the Pennsylvania primary election, Tuesday, May 17, 2022, in Harmony, Pa., (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

Republicans Dave McCormick and Mehmet Oz remain locked in a race for the GOP Senate nomination. | Keith Srakocic/AP Photo

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DRIVING THE DAY

LATEST FROM THE OZ-MCCORMICK NAIL-BITER — "McCormick and Oz neck-and-neck in Pennsylvania as Fetterman gets Dem Senate nod ," by Natalie Allison, Zach Montellaro & Ally Mutnick

ABOUT LAST NIGHT — "'Beware what you wish for': Five takeaways from a key primary night," by David Siders 

A WINNING NIGHT FOR ELECTION DENIERS — Sixteen months after DONALD TRUMP supporters stormed Capitol Hill to try to stop the certification of JOE BIDEN as president, a prominent election denier in Pennsylvania inched closer to becoming the next governor of Pennsylvania. State Sen. DOUG MASTRIANO — who attended and helped organize for the "Stop the Steal" rally, has called for audits of Keystone State votes and has been subpoenaed by the House Jan. 6 panel — clinched the GOP gubernatorial nomination. If he wins this fall, he'll be in a position to nominate the next Pennsylvania secretary of state, a position that oversees elections in the key presidential battleground state.

A map of Pennsylvania shows how people voted for the GOP gubernatorial primary.

A few thoughts on this:

1) The conventional wisdom on both sides last night was that this is good news for JOSH SHAPIRO, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee. Talking heads were almost universally predicting that Mastriano was too rabbit-hole-conspiracy-minded to win a state that Trump couldn't even carry in 2020. Our own Steve Shepard as well asCook Political Report announced last night that they'd be shifting their election forecast for the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race from "toss up" to "lean Democrat." Even the Republican Governors Association put out a very lukewarm statement about Mastriano's victory,notably declining to say they will invest in him as a candidate.

But this election is far from a sure thing for Democrats. Given soaring inflation, ongoing supply-chain issues, painfully high gas prices and a spike in violent crime, the general environment is still rich for the GOP. Throw in Biden's poor poll numbers, and anything can happen.

2) Democrats helped engineer Mastriano's win. One of the most fascinating things we read last night was our colleagues' back and forth on the POLITICO live blog about how Mastriano's rise can be partly attributed to Democrats.

— Viewing him as the easiest Republican to defeat in the general, Shapiro and the state Democratic Party sent out mailers boosting him, our Holly Otterbein noted, helping him rise above other GOP candidates, including former Rep. LOU BARLETTA (R-Pa.).

— And while Mastriano spent less than $370,000 on TV ads, the Shapiro campaign pumped more than $840,000 to air a spot that attacked Mastriano as too conservative for voters, an ad which actually boosted him on the right, our Zach Montellaro reported. Case in point: The ad called him "one of Donald Trump's strongest supporters" — which, to many GOP primary voters, is a feature, not a bug.

For a party that claims to care about the fragile state of democracy, this is a risky strategy, our team noted. "I wonder about all these Dems rooting for far-right, MAGA hard-liners to win," wrote David Siders. "Was there no lesson learned in '16?" Related reading: "Victories by Mastriano, Budd show potency of Trump's false stolen election claims in GOP," by WaPo's Annie Linskey and David Weigel

TRUMP'S MIXED RECORD ON ENDORSEMENTS — One week after catapulting J.D. VANCE to victory in Ohio, Trump had a somewhat decent night, though the verdict on perhaps his biggest gamble — supporting MEHMET OZ in Pennsylvania's tight Senate primary — is still out.

— The wins: The former president will no doubt claim credit for Mastriano's win, even though he endorsed him only this past weekend in part to hedge his bets on a struggling Oz. He'll also tout Rep. TED BUDD's primary victory in North Carolina's U.S. Senate race. Budd — who, to be fair, also had the backing of the Club for Growth, and was the beneficiary of massive spending — led former Gov. PAT MCCRORY last night by a whopping 34 points.

— The losses: Trump backed Rep. MADISON CAWTHORN , the scandal-plagued 26-year-old North Carolina Republican who lost his primary last night. (More on that below.) Ditto with his pick for Idaho governor, Lt. Gov. JANICE MCGEACHIN, who challenged Gov. BRAD LITTLE but suffered an embarrassing defeat last night, winning less than 32 percent of the vote.

— The undecided: Perhaps the biggest surprise of the evening was how well DAVID MCCORMICK did in Pennsylvania, despite recent polling. The race remains uncalled, with Oz ahead by just over 2,500 votes— a tight enough margin that a recount can be expected.

While it's pretty clear that McCormick benefitted from KATHY BARNETTE's late-breaking surge in the polls — which siphoned off Trump-wing support from Oz — the ex-president's inability to clear the race is noteworthy. Trump has called McCormick a "liberal Wall Street Republican," and accused him of being too cozy with China. And yet, as of Wednesday morning, McCormick is still standing — for now. Related reading: "How Trump-backed candidates fared on the busiest primary day," by Marissa Martinez

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CENTRISTS OUT OF STYLE — One of the biggest potential upsets of the night unfolded in Oregon, where Rep. KURT SCHRADER, an outspoken Blue Dog Democrat, trailed progressive challenger JAMIE MCLEOD-SKINNER. Defeating a seven-term congressman would be a huge coup for the left if they can pull it off. Schrader had the backing of President Biden — even though he's often been a thorn in the president's side when it comes to passing his agenda, and banded with other moderates to decouple Build Back Better from the infrastructure package last year. For more on this: "The 'Joe Manchin of the House' nears defeat in his Oregon primary," by The Intercept's Austin Ahlman

The shellacking of Schrader, however, was just part of the story. In Pennsylvania, progressive lieutenant governor and ex-BERNIE SANDERS surrogate JOHN FETTERMAN easily defeated Rep. CONOR LAMB to clinch the state's Democratic nomination for Senate. Lamb, the moderate golden boy, was once praised by party leaders for perfecting the art of flipping GOP districts on a centrist campaign platform. But Fetterman, who spent Election Day getting a pacemaker implanted due to a recent stroke, was winning in every county in the Keystone State as of early this morning.

THE FALL OF MADISON CAWTHORN — Turns out there are consequences to accusing your colleagues of engaging in cocaine-fueled orgies, bringing a gun to the airport, ignoring House rules, driving with a revoked license and being photographed in a number of risque positions. Cawthorn, whose exploits have been the fodder for months of negative stories, lost his primary to state Sen. CHUCK EDWARDS — despite Trump's plea over the weekend for voters to give Cawthorn a second chance. More from the Raleigh News & Observer

A chart shows the percentages for North Carolina's 11th District.

Some subpoints in this plot:

1) This was a major win for THOM TILLIS. The GOP senator from the Tar Heel State came out hard against Cawthorn. A PAC tied to him even spent heavily to oust the representative, whom he called an "embarrassment." It is a rare example of an elected Republican leader stepping up to stop a conservative candidate he views as problematic for the party — at a time when many other Republicans have ducked for cover, lest they anger the MAGA base.

2) It's one less headache for KEVIN MCCARTHY — at least in theory. Cawthorn's drama has been a distraction for the minority leader in his quest to flip the House — to the point that he chided Cawthorn publicly, something he is loath to do to his own members. However, this could cut another way: With his re-election no longer a concern, could Cawthorn become even more of a loose cannon?

See all the results: Idaho statewide and Idaho congressional districtsKentucky statewide and Kentucky congressional districtsNorth Carolina statewide and North Carolina congressional districtsOregon statewide and Oregon congressional districtsPennsylvania statewide and Pennsylvania congressional districts

Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza .

 

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BIDEN'S WEDNESDAY:

— 10:15 a.m.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief.

— 1:15 p.m.: Biden and first lady JILL BIDEN will depart the White House en route to Joint Base Andrews, where they are scheduled to arrive at 1:25 p.m.

— 1:45 p.m.: Biden will receive a briefing on interagency efforts to prepare for hurricane season.

— 2:50 p.m.: The president will depart Joint Base Andrews to return to the White House, where he is scheduled to arrive at 3 p.m.

VP KAMALA HARRIS' WEDNESDAY:

— 8:55 a.m.: The vice president will depart D.C. en route to New London, Conn.

— 11 a.m.: Harris will deliver remarks at the United States Coast Guard Academy Commencement Ceremony.

— 2:40 p.m.: Harris will depart New London to return to D.C.

The White House Covid-19 response team and public health officials will brief at 10:45 a.m. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE and national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN will brief at 1:30 p.m.

THE SENATE is in. EPA Administrator MICHAEL REGAN will testify before an Appropriations subcommittee at 10 a.m.

THE HOUSE will meet at noon. Testifying before Appropriations subcommittees today: SEC Chair GARY GENSLER and FTC Chair LINA KHAN at 10 a.m. and IRS Commissioner CHARLES RETTIG at 1 p.m.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 

PHOTO OF THE DAY

WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 17: Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis greets Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) as U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris applauds, before addressing a joint meeting of Congress in the House Chamber of the U.S. Capitol on May 17, 2022 in Washington, DC. A day earlier, Mitsotakis held bilateral meetings with President Joe Biden where the two leaders discussed Greek-U.S. relations and their support of the people of Ukraine in the face of invasion by Russia.   (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis greets Speaker Nancy Pelosi and VP Kamala Harris before addressing a joint meeting of Congress in the House Chamber on Tuesday. | Getty Images

PLAYBOOK READS

ALL POLITICS

KNIVES OUT FOR SPM — As New York pols deal with the fallout from the newly drawn congressional map, an increasing number of Dems are fuming at Rep. SEAN PATRICK MALONEY, whose "decision to abandon a newly redrawn version of his current swing district — and instead run for a seat that includes most of Rep. MONDAIRE JONES' turf — is raising private concerns from across the party that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chief has put himself in an inappropriate scenario: leading the party's midterm strategy while potentially battling a fellow member," Sarah Ferris and Ally Mutnick report.

How bad could it get for Maloney? "At least a dozen members, mostly from swing districts, are even raising the prospect of trying to depose Maloney from his post as DCCC chair, according to multiple people familiar with the discussions. Several are so determined that they have sent messages to members of leadership, including Democratic Caucus Chair HAKEEM JEFFRIES (D-N.Y.), making a doomed push for Maloney to step down."

And the frustration is not reserved for private conversations:

— Retiring Rep. KATHLEEN RICE (D-N.Y.): "You cannot have the chair of the DCCC involved in a Democratic primary with an incumbent colleague and expect that person to remain objective about their No. 1 job, which is incumbent protection."

— Rep. RITCHIE TORRES (D-N.Y.): "It seems like there's a conflict. New York 17 is primarily in Congressman Jones' district. He should be regarded as the incumbent."

On the topic of the New York congressional map … A newly open seat covering lower Manhattan and the Park Slope neighborhood of Brooklyn is drawing a frenzy of interest, including from former NYC Mayor BILL DE BLASIO, Erin Durkin and Sally Goldenberg report.

TRUMP CARDS

WYNN-ING TIME — The Justice Department on Tuesday sued STEVE WYNN , the longtime casino magnate, "saying he had made repeated requests on behalf of the Chinese government to Donald J. Trump when he was president and seeking to force Mr. Wynn to register as a foreign agent," reports NYT's Niraj Chokshi. "In 2017, Mr. Wynn pushed Mr. Trump to deport a Chinese national who had sought asylum in the United States, according to the lawsuit. At the time, Mr. Wynn was the finance chairman of the Republican National Committee, a post he had been handpicked for by Mr. Trump."

— Wynn's response: In a statement to the AP, Wynn's attorneys said the 80-year-old billionaire "has never acted as an agent of the Chinese government and had no obligation to register under the Foreign Agents Registration Act," and that they "look forward to proving our case in court."

 

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THE WHITE HOUSE

WHAT BIDEN WON'T SAY — In Biden's remarks in Buffalo on Tuesday, the president declined to name any names when talking about those responsible for spreading the dangerous and racist "replacement theory" that influenced the deadly shooter. It wasn't a mistake. "Biden's aides say that his reticence is deliberate, and that it underscores just how delicate he and his administration view the current tinderbox that is American politics," Jonathan Lemire and Eugene write . "They have been reluctant to call out individuals by name precisely out of fear that it would distract from the 'substance' of the problem and give more attention to the conspiracy, which holds that white Americans are being replaced by nonwhite immigrants orchestrated by a cabal of elites eager to see Democrats win office."

Related: Nearly 40 of the leading gun control groups in the nation addressed a letter to Biden and Democratic leadership calling on them to appropriate more money for Community Violence Initiatives, hold a Senate debate and vote on legislation expanding background checks, and establish a White House Office of Gun Violence Prevention. (Full letter here

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

DOJ SEEKS JAN. 6 PANEL TRANSCRIPTS — The DOJ is asking the Jan. 6 select committee to provide "transcripts of interviews it is conducting behind closed doors, including some with associates of former President Donald J. Trump," NYT's Glenn Thrush and Luke Broadwater report. "The House committee, which has no power to pursue criminal charges, has interviewed more than 1,000 people so far, and the transcripts could be used by the Justice Department as evidence in potential criminal cases, to pursue new leads or as a baseline for new interviews conducted by federal law enforcement officials."

— FWIW: Rep. BENNIE THOMPSON (D-Miss.), who chairs the committee, "said he has replied that the committee won't hand over its 'work product,' but might invite department officials to review the documents in committee offices," Kyle Cheney and Nicholas Wu write.

WHO WON'T BE TALKING — Thompson also told reporters that the panel is not expecting to call Trump for testimony during its hearings, Kyle writes. "I think the concern is whether or not he would add any more value with his testimony," Thompson said.

COLLISION COURSE — A federal judge is considering whether the select committee's final report could force a delay in the seditious conspiracy trial of Oath Keepers founder STEWART RHODES and his co-defendants, Kyle reports . "A collision between those two efforts is possible. The seditious conspiracy trial is slated to begin Sept. 26. The select committee is eyeing a September release of its final report, as well as a potential hearing to review its findings, all of which could generate intense interest and media coverage in Washington."

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

BEST CAPTION WINS …

A tweet shows a picture of Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) locked out of the Capitol.

(Don't worry, she got back in.)

Kathy Barnette danced the "Macarena" at her election-night party.

Elon Musk said that he plans to vote Republican this fall, criticizing the Democratic Party as being "overly controlled by the unions and by the trial lawyers." He added: "To be fair, on the Republican side — if you [ask] why is something not ideal happening, it's because of corporate evil and religious zealotry."

Marty Walsh, ever the Bostonian, reports that Dunkin Donuts' coffee tastes different in South Korea.

Dan Crenshaw responded to Tucker Carlson's derisively calling him "eyepatch McCain." "When you don't have arguments, you resort to petty name-calling, which is all he's really capable of," the Texas congressman and former Navy SEAL told Manu Raju.

John Kennedy confusingly criticized Joe Biden's aides as "the crunchy granola types who like to attend gender-reveal parties."

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the White House's Rose Garden reception for Asian American, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander Heritage Month on Tuesday: USTR Katherine Tai, Sens. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) and Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), Reps. Judy Chu (D-Calif.), Andy Kim (D-N.J.), Grace Meng (D-N.Y.) and Ted Lieu (D-Calif.), Daniel Dae Kim, Richa Moorjani, Dion Lim, Kurt Bardella, See Mia Spring, Michelle Kwan, Ai-Jen Pu and Roger Lau.

— SPOTTED at a farewell toast on Tuesday night for outgoing senior adviser to the president and director of the White House Office of Public Engagement Cedric Richmond at the International Association of Firefighters: HUD Secretary Marcia Fudge, Anita Dunn, Mike Donilon, Steven Ricchetti, Susan Rice, Shalanda Young, Doug Jones, Julie Rodriguez, Virgil Miller, Kamau Marshall, Vinay Reddy, John McCarthy, Kwabena Nsiah, Jalina Porter, Zach Butterworth, Adam Schultz, Sherice Perry, Heather Foster, Ashley Etienne and Vincent Evans.

— SPOTTED at a launch party for news startup Grid on the rooftop of their offices overlooking Union Station and the Capitol dome on Tuesday night: Matthew Yglesias, Dave Weigel, Matt Kaminski, David Ensor, Patrick Steel, Andrew Reinsdorf, Alex Conant, Olivia Reingold, Molly Ball, Terri McCullough, John Falcicchio, Erin McPike, Jonathan Kott, Kasper Zeuthen, Lianne Bollinger, Erie Meyer, David Kurtz, Puru Trivedi, Jennifer Dunn, Amber Lyons, Molly Metheny, Sam Runyon, Regina Sica, Ben Jenkins and Andrew Kovalcin.

— SPOTTED at the Four Seasons on Tuesday having breakfast to toast Alexa Verveer's new role as head of global government affairs for Warner Bros. Discovery: Carol Melton, Evan Ryan, Heather Podesta, Peggy Collins, Katie Fallon, Juleanna Glover, Karen Kornbluh, DeDe Lea, Tammy Haddad, Deesha Dyer, Ruchi Bhowmik, Melissa Moss, Adrienne Elrod, Katherine Lugar, Jennifer Maguire Isham, Kelley McCormick, Rachel Pearson and Kristi Rogers.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Faith McKie has been detailed over to the White House to be special assistant to the comms director for VP Kamala Harris. She most recently was special assistant to the associate administrator for comms at NASA.

TRANSITIONS — Hannah Rehm is now comms director for Rep. Joe Neguse (D-Colo.). She most recently was press secretary for Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.) and is a Pete Buttigieg alum. … Joel Rubin is now the VP for global policy and public affairs at the National Peace Corps Association. He most recently was the executive director of the American Jewish Congress and is also an Obama State Department alum. … Paul Redifer is joining Zoom as head of U.S. government relations. He previously was senior director of government affairs at Cisco Systems.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.) … Ernesto Apreza of the White House … Seven Letter's Erik Smith Matthew Yglesias … NBC's Josh Lederman and Leah GrafTim Chapman … Vox's Libby Nelson … POLITICO's Bryan Bender, Felicia Figueiredo and Maddie Sugg … E&E News' Chelsea Harvey … WaPo's Cristiano Lima Alex Witt of the Center for American Progress … Abby Sugrue … Snap's Sofia Rose Gross Democrat Matt GormanGabrielle Shea of NEC Corp. … Laura Morgan-Kessler of Carpi & Clay … AP's Meg KinnardFarah Melendez … Hiltzik Strategies' Ryan HughesPete Boogaard of FWD.us … Eric TragerTaylor West Ezra Cohen-WatnickRobin (Roberts) WinchellClyde Haberman … former Sen. Tom Udall (D-N.M.) … Javier LLano … House GOP Conference's Ryan Hofmann … POLITICO Europe's Simona LightfootLance West of Sen. Joe Manchin's (D-W.Va.) office (3-0) … Querry Robinson

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