Saturday, April 16, 2022

PE & VC markets take a sharp turn

Also: SPACs massively underperform S&P 500; New fund performance data released; AI is changing the world of database management; Live Acquired show!
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The Research Pitch
April 16, 2022
SPACs fall back. Companies that have completed the deSPAC process have significantly underperformed the S&P 500.

Also, SPAC IPO activity in Q1 reached the lowest point since early 2020.

We recently published new data on SPAC performance, introducing the PitchBook deSPAC Index after a wild two years of listings:

Download the research
US PE opens 2022 at a tepid pace
After a record-setting 2021, US PE dealmaking activity got off to a lukewarm start this year.

The threat of higher interest rates pressured deal activity during the first quarter, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine further complicated matters as sanctions and escalated supply chain disruptions pushed dealmakers to hit pause for several weeks.

Market volatility dragged down valuations, hurting both deal and exit activity in Q1.
 
US PE dealmaking slowed in Q1, but multiples stayed steady.

However, US public equity markets largely rallied in March, suggesting that investors are expecting a calmer dealmaking environment ahead.

Capital continued to flow into IT and healthcare, and some traditional energy assets became more attractive despite a growing focus on ESG.

Exit activity was down. Public listings dropped in Q1 as sponsors held on to their portfolio companies amid stock market declines and valuation adjustments.

Sponsor-to-sponsor exits and corporate acquisitions endured thanks to high levels of PE dry powder and cash on corporate balance sheets.

The overall PE fundraising environment remains favorable, but individual GPs are battling for limited resources as myriad managers are currently raising capital, often seeking sizable step-ups and overwhelming LP funding abilities.

The slowdown in PE exits may further complicate fundraising because much of the capital LPs receive from distributions is recycled back into future funds.

For additional analysis, click to download the full Q1 2022 US PE Breakdown.

Feel free to reach out with any questions or feedback, or if you would like to discuss the research.
 
Best,

Jinny Choi
Analyst, Private Equity
VC exits, late-stage activity most impacted by a changing environment
Undoubtedly, the US venture market has shifted over the past quarter, at least in terms of the industry trends we became accustomed to in 2021.

Interest rates have risen, inflation is at a 40-year high, and the war in Ukraine has made the geopolitical climate tenser than we have seen in a long time.

Venture isn't immune to these headwinds, but when looking at Q1 data, not everything has been impacted.

Median valuations are up. Fundraising hit a record amount of capital commitments. Even nontraditional investors reached a new high in total deals.
 
Late-stage companies may be feeling a squeeze.

But there is evidence of cracks forming.

For one, public listings fell off a cliff.

The volatility seen within the public markets through Q1 made public listings treacherous for companies after years of expanding revenue multiples on private valuations.

SPACs have fallen on difficult times as the SEC continues to look into the current regulatory setup.

Our PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor presents the data with an eye toward the future of VC.

While headwinds may even be strengthening, the US venture market couldn't ask for a better backstop than it has with $230 billion in dry powder.

Though, as we have seen, dry powder can't save every company, and shifting markets can make downfalls happen Fast.

For more data and analysis, click to download our free Q1 2022 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor.

As always, please reach out with any questions or feedback.
 
Best,

Kyle Stanford, CAIA
Senior Analyst, Venture Capital
Benchmarks
The newest editions of our PitchBook Benchmarks have just gone live, with full data as of Q3 2021 and preliminary Q4 data in our global edition.

The report offers dozens of pages of fund performance metrics like IRR quantiles, pooled horizon returns, cash multiples, and PMEs.

All of the following breakouts are available—including brand-new offerings on real estate, real assets, and private debt—as we continually work to improve the timeliness and expansiveness of our benchmarks:
  • Global (includes prelim Q4 data!)
  • North America
  • Europe
  • Private equity
  • Venture capital
  • Private debt
  • Real estate
  • Real assets
  • Secondaries
  • Funds-of-funds
get our free benchmarks
 
Thematic Research
Plumbing AI Data Pipelines

The future of AI inference lies in nonrelational databases.

Indeed, these databases and data lakes are grabbing more market share in database management, as they can support a variety of data types and formats as they integrate unstructured data without the connecting schema found in relational databases.

With most organizations planning to add new streaming datasets—along with video, images, and IoT data—opportunities are emerging for VC-backed companies like Confluent, Databricks, and Pandio.

Learn more about how AI is changing the dynamic within the database market:
download the free research
 
Webinars & Events
PitchBook is hosting a live recording of the Acquired podcast on May 4 at Seattle's Climate Pledge Arena.

Hosts Ben Gilbert and David Rosenthal will interview a slate of business leaders about their journeys in the boardroom and life.

Tickets for the live show cost $20 with all proceeds benefiting the Seattle Kraken and Climate Pledge Arena's One Roof Foundation: register here
  • April 26: Analyst Jinny Choi will discuss PE, supply chain tech, and pandemic disruption at ACG Global + Intergrowth 2022 in Las Vegas. More details here.
In the News
Our insights and data featured in the press:
  • "The gargantuan Benetton and Blackstone-led Atlantia deal redefines how investors will think about infrastructure investments due to its sheer size alone." [Reuters]

  • As sentiment around speculative pockets of the market turns south, the volume of public offerings through SPACs has abated to the lowest level in two years. [Yahoo Finance]

  • "A ton of capital has been invested in the late-stage market ... so those companies are feeling pressure to find some sort of outlet for investors." [Institutional Investor]
If you're a journalist interested in interviewing our analysts or requesting data, contact our PR team.
ICYMI
Highlights from our other recent research:

Market updates Thematic research Emerging Technology Research Coming next week (subject to change)
  • European PE Breakdown
  • European Venture Report
Thanks for reading! Feel free to email us any time with feedback, questions, or tips!

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