Good morning. Technically, it takes two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth to...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.
 | | |  Good morning. Technically, it takes two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth to constitute an official recession. But yesterday's -1.4 percent GDP number showed that the economy is in serious trouble. And that only counts what's happened in the first three months of the year.
Adding in ongoing high energy prices, as well as the recent increase in delayed shipping out of China, it's clear that we're on track for a recession when the Q2 data comes out. Even if the number is positive, it's not taking into account inflation rates. After all, US GDP grew at an above-average 5.7 percent in 2021. But the latest inflation data, closing in on 9 percent, has more than eaten up those gains.
While the market has already sold off heavily, investors will really need to be picky about what stocks to buy and go long in this environment. For long-term investors, it's also a chance to focus on dividend and dividend-growth companies, and using tools like covered call writing to enhance returns here.
Now here's the rest of the news: | | | | | |
| | |  | DOW 33,916.39 | +1.85% | | | | | S&P 4,287.50 | +2.47% | | | | | NASDAQ 12,871.53 | +3.06% | | | | | *As of market close | | | • | Stocks rallied on Thursday, reversing most of this week's losses. | | | • | Oil rose 3.3 percent, closing at $105.43 per barrel. | | | • | Gold rallied 0.4 percent, ending at $1,896 per ounce. | | | • | Cryptocurrencies generally rose, with Bitcoin at $39,832 at the stock market close. | | | | | | | |
| | | For Consistent Profits, Follow the Big Money Trends | | | | Even with the short-term fears hitting the economy right now, technology continues to develop at a rapid rate. And the implementation of new technologies takes years to play out, across multiple economic cycles.
That means that those who invest in these big trends during a market downturn can earn excess returns as those trends continue to grow and play out over a period of months and years.
» FULL STORY | | | | |
| | Insider Trading Report: Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) | | | | Richard King, a director at Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), recently picked up 2,178 more shares of the company. The buy increased his holdings by nearly 3 percent, and came to a total price of just over $30,000.
This is the second buy at the regional bank year-to-date. The prior buy was also from a director. Company executives have been regular sellers of shares over the past three years, with the net result of large sales by insiders overall.
» FULL STORY | | | | |
| | Unusual Options Activity: Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) | | | | Shares of mining giant Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) have been in a strong uptrend until the past few trading days, when shares quickly dropped. One trader sees the stock returning to rally mode.
That's based on the August $49 calls. With 112 days until expiration, 3,283 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 121, for a 27-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $2.21 to get into the position.
» FULL STORY | | | | |
| | • | US GDP Shrinks 1.4 Percent
The US economy shrank by 1.4 percent, the first drop since early 2020. The drop has been blamed on the usual suspects of supply chain issues, and fallout from the Omicron variant. The drop comes as inflation continues to surge and as the Federal Reserve continues with its plan to hike interest rates. | | | | • | Food Prices Log Fifth Monthly Gain
Food prices have risen for five months in a row, the longest stretch since 2020, as commodities continue to rise. Overall, commodities rose 2.5 percent for the month so far. As with rising energy prices, the rising costs of raw foodstuffs are leaving less income available for purchases elsewhere. | | | | • | Workers Support Remote/Hybrid Work Structure
A new survey from ADP (ADP) suggests that two-thirds of the global workforce would leave, or seriously consider leaving, their jobs if asked to come back into the office full-time. The survey comes as a number of companies have embraced a fully-remote workforce or have hybrid plans in place for a few days in the office per week. | | | | • | Millennials Outpace Boomers in Retirement Savings
A new study from investment firm Charles Schwab (SCHW) finds that millennials have a higher 401(k) balance on average than Boomers and Gen Xers did at the same age. The study also finds that the millennial generation expects to have little extra retirement benefits in the way of a pension or social security benefits as prior generations have. | | | | • | Twitter Reports User Overcount
Social media giant Twitter (TWTR) reports that it may have overstated its number of users by 1.3 million. The discrepancy dates back to an account linking feature launched in March 2019, which may have overstated the total number of accounts used by a customer. This revelation comes as Elon Musk moves forward with a plan to take the company private. | | |
| | | | TOP | | | FB | 17.648% | | | | PTC | 17.363% | | | | PYPL | 11.282% | | | | QCOM | 9.956% | | | | TYL | 8.818% | | | | BOTTOM | | | ALGN | 15.425% | | | | ORLY | 12.158% | | | | SWK | 8.926% | | | | AZO | 7.515% | | | | AAP | 6.648% | | | | |
| | |  | | I think a lot of people want to believe that earnings are going to pull us out of this, but earnings are not what got us into this… But the reality is there are so many macro headwinds still in front of us in the next 60 days that the market is just hard to impress. | | - Liz Young, analyst at SoFi, on why earnings season, while strong, may not provide enough fodder for the stock market to move higher given outside factors like inflation and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. | |
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