Monday, March 7, 2022

🤫 Ukraine's unlikely wish

Plus: House rushes votes | Monday, March 07, 2022
 
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Axios Sneak Peek
By the Axios Politics team ·Mar 07, 2022

Welcome back to Sneak.

📅 Join Sneak's own Sarah Mucha and Axios' Erica Pandey tomorrow at 12:30pm ET for a virtual event examining the pandemic era's unique impact on working women and entrepreneurs. Guests include Small Business Administration Administrator Isabella Casillas Guzman and Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa). Register here.

🎧 "How it Happened," Season 3, focused on the slow-motion path to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, is now available for download. Click here.

Smart Brevity™ count: 842 words ... 3 minutes. Edited by Glen Johnson.

 
 
1 big thing: Ukraine's unlikely fighter-jet deal
A Polish MiG-29 fighter is seen in a hangar in Warsaw.

A Polish MiG-29 jet is seen in 2016 at a hangar in Warsaw. Photo: Darek Majewski/Gallo Images Poland/Getty Images

 

Efforts to push the Biden administration into supporting the transfer of Russian-made fighter jets to Ukraine appear doomed for both technical and geopolitical reasons, Axios' Zachary Basu reports.

Why it matters: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky pleaded for the jets Saturday during a Zoom call with more than 300 members of Congress, saying they were badly needed if NATO wouldn't establish a "no-fly" zone.

  • Those jets would likely be Soviet-era MiG-29s possessed by Poland, which Ukrainian pilots are capable of operating.
  • The U.S. would, in turn, backfill Poland's fleet with American-made F-16s.

Reality check: White House press secretary Jen Psaki reiterated today the U.S. would be in "no way opposed" to Poland's "sovereign decision" to transfer its planes but stressed there are a number of logistical hurdles.

  • Those include how the planes would actually enter Ukraine's heavily contested airspace, as well as how to accelerate the yearslong U.S. procurement process for "serious weapon systems" like the F-16.
  • The Russians have also been bombing Ukraine's airports, raising the specter of the planes having to be based in Poland or other NATO territory — increasing the risk of a Russian attack on soil that would have to be defended by the alliance.

Keep reading.

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2. Member events dictating big House votes
A hand dangling the capitol dome on string

Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

 

The House plans to adjourn Wednesday come hell or high water so Democrats can attend an issues retreat in Philadelphia — putting a personal clock on major public debates about aid to Ukraine and avoiding a government shutdown Friday, Axios' Andrew Solender writes.

Driving the news: "Short of SMOD [a sweet meteor of death] or the second coming of Christ, there's nothing that's going to stop House leaders from going on retreat," one senior Republican House aide told Axios in a pox on both parties' house.

  • Senate Democrats are also attending a retreat Wednesday, but it's being held in Washington and senators are expected to return for votes Thursday and, possibly, Friday.
  • A similar issues retreat for House Republicans is being held in Florida in two weeks.
  • A spokesperson for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi declined comment.

Between the lines: The schedule tomorrow is being driven by another point of personal privilege: the funeral for Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R-Minn.), a colleague who died last month from cancer.

  • Not all members are attending, but it's changing the schedule for everyone.
  • Votes to slap additional sanctions on Russia and Belarus aren't expected to be held until tomorrow night, at the earliest, a Democratic aide familiar with the plans told Axios.

What they're saying: Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Texas), the top Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee, told Axios tonight he has yet to receive legislative text for a sanctions bill.

  • Asked if it can pass by Wednesday, he said, "I certainly hope so."

Keep reading.

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3. Charted: Congressional achievement
Data: Quorum; Chart: Baidi Wang/Axios

Congress passed 85 bills and joint resolutions in 2021 out of nearly 10,000 introduced— down from 268 passed during the first year of the prior Congress, according to Quorum data reviewed by Axios' Stef Kight.

Why it matters: The current 117th Congress had a rough start, roiled by the Jan. 6 attack, a 50-50 Senate and the pandemic. Its second and final year will be affected by posturing for this fall's midterms.

  • Last year, Congress managed to knock out a few big-ticket items, such as passing COVID-19 economic relief and the bipartisan infrastructure bill.

By the numbers: Reps. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.) and Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) as well as Sens. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) and Gary Peters (D-Mich.) each sponsored three bills enacted by Congress — more than any of their congressional colleagues.

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4. Worthy of your time
Vice President Kamala Harris is seen looking on as Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg speaks at an event on Monday.

Vice President Kamala Harris watches as Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg speaks at a transportation event today. Photo: Shawn Thew/EPA/Bloomberg via Getty Images

 

🇺🇦 Ukraine's President Zelensky disclosed his location amid threats of decapitation in a new video. "I'm staying in Kyiv. In my office. I'm not hiding. And I'm not afraid of anyone," he said, Axios' Sarah Mucha writes in tonight's Sneak roundup.

⚖️ Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and ranking member Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) had a spat over the confirmation timeline for Supreme Court nominee Ketanji Brown Jackson.

🎖️The Biden administration is asking the Supreme Court to let the Department of Defense enforce its COVID-19 vaccination requirement for a group of unvaccinated Navy SEALs.

🐘 Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) argued in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that former Presidents Trump and Reagan have shared roots in the Republican Party.

📊 A new Quinnipiac poll finds Americans support a U.S. military response if Russian President Vladimir Putin attacks a NATO country; Americans also support taking in Ukrainian refugees.

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5. Pic du jour
A street sign proclaiming

Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

 

Pro-Ukraine demonstrators placed a mock street sign in front of the Russian Embassy in Washington.

  • The D.C. Council had previously — and officially — renamed the same section of Wisconsin Avenue as "Boris Nemtsov Place."
  • That commemorated the 2015 Moscow murder of the prominent Putin critic by that name.
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