| | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | 
Ukraine's Ambassador to the United States Oksana Markarova speaks during a news conference at the Embassy of Ukraine in Washington, Saturday, Feb. 26, 2022. | Jose Luis Magana/AP Photo | With help from Andrew Desiderio and Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — Ukraine wants air-defense systems and an increase in American military support, OKSANA MARKAROVA, Ukraine's ambassador to the U.S., said in a letter to lawmakers sent on Monday afternoon. Markarova's letter comes as Congress is cobbling together a robust funding package to send urgent military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine as it fends off Russian invaders. "[T]o successfully bring this war to an end, we ask the United States Congress to take urgent action," she wrote to members in both chambers. She asked on behalf of Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY that Congress "immediately provide Ukraine with aircraft and air defense systems"; "increase the amount of Presidential drawdown authority in FY 2022"; and "increase the amount to be included in the package for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative." Markarova also asked that Congress make the funds "maximally flexible" so that the Ukrainian government can use the money as it sees fit. Congress has historically provided foreign countries with limited flexibility as part of military aid packages, so this specific request from Markarova might fall on deaf ears. Still, the ambassador — who was first lady JILL BIDEN's guest at last week's State of the Union address — will find a receptive audience on Capitol Hill, as lawmakers from both parties say they want the U.S. to provide more military and economic assistance to help Ukraine fend off Russia's invasion. Congress is likely to pass a $10 billion funding package to aid Ukraine later this week as part of the yearlong government funding bill. The Biden administration has asked that the measure include not only military assistance, but also robust humanitarian aid to help Ukraine and neighboring Eastern European countries deal with the influx of refugees. Ukrainian forces have performed far better than Western analysts predicted, using U.S. and NATO-provided weapons to kill hundreds of Russian troops and destroy tanks and aircraft. But those successes haven't yet stopped Russia from advancing deeper into Ukraine , especially in the south. Kyiv, the capital city, is still under Ukraine's control even as Moscow's military inches closer to the seat of government. A senior U.S. defense official told reporters today that Russia has now sent in nearly all of the troops it pre-staged on Ukraine's border. Speaking of Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN , the official added that "we have not seen any indication that he is going to go beyond the amassed combat power that he has already developed" — meaning what Russia has deployed is what they're going with, for now — even as the skies above Ukraine remain contested. Ukraine's hope is that Congress will keep providing Kyiv with the military and humanitarian assistance it needs to withstand the onslaught, especially since the U.S. doesn't want to send troops into the country and NATO won't establish a no-fly zone. "The Ukrainians are telling Congress exactly what they need to defend themselves. They're doing everything except drafting the bill and filing it with the cloak room," said a senior Republican Senate staffer. Even so, there may still be some pressure — including from Democrats — to seriously consider more active measures in Ukraine. Sending troops to western Ukraine "is something we have to be thinking about," Rep. TOM MALINOWSKI (D-N.J.), a House Foreign Affairs Committee member and former Obama administration official, said today on the Skullduggery podcast . NATO should "at least think through the potential risks and benefits" of such an action "in that portion of Ukraine."
| | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures, assessments and statements with a healthy dose of skepticism. War in Ukraine:
- As of 3 a.m. ET, Russia has seen more than 11,000 personnel killed or injured. Russia has also lost 290 tanks, 46 warplanes, 68 helicopters and 454 vehicles. (Ukrainian Ministry of Defense)
- Russian forces are "concentrating [their] main efforts on the encirclement of Kyiv, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Mariupol, and Mykolayiv." Meanwhile, Russia is preparing to attack the Kyiv suburb of Vyshhorod while resuming offensives in Hostomel, Irpin and Stoyanka. (Ukraine Ministry of Defense)
- Russia has sent nearly 100 percent of the forces it pre-staged outside Ukraine into the country and has launched more than 625 missiles since the start of the invasion (senior U.S. defense official)
- "The enemy is demoralized and exhausted. His plans for a blitzkrieg, a change of government and Ukraine's foreign policy have been thwarted." (Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces)
- Russia is probably attacking Ukraine's communications infrastructure to reduce citizens' access to reliable news and information (U.K. Ministry of Defense)
- Ukraine and Russia met for a third time to see if they could end the conflict diplomatically (Office of the Ukrainian President)
- Russia would cease hostilities if Ukraine recognized Crimea as Russian territory and the independence of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, as well as enshrine in an amended Constitution that Ukraine can't join "any bloc," presumably NATO and the European Union (Office of the Russian President)
Global Response:
- U.S.: The Biden administration has given the "green light" to sending warplanes to Poland should Warsaw send MiG-29s to Ukraine. Poland so far has rejected it's considering such a plan. (U.S. secretary of State)
- U.S.: Secretary of Defense LLOYD AUSTIN authorized the deployment over the weekend of roughly 500 additional troops to Eastern Europe (senior U.S. defense official)
- Canada: Canada has sanctioned 10 Russians close to Putin that were on jailed dissident's ALEXEI NAVALNY's list of people to target.
AIR-DEFENSE SYSTEMS TO NATO? The U.S. is considering sending air-defense systems to NATO allies, CNN's BARBARA STARR reported, citing one unnamed U.S. official. "The US is considering a range of capabilities," the official said. "There is no specific plan yet, but the idea centers around the concern that Russian missiles or aircraft might deliberately attack targets inside NATO territory at some point if Russian President Vladimir Putin decides those nations are a risk to his invasion because of their support for Ukraine," Starr wrote. "And because of close proximity of the airspace, there is also concern that air defense be available if there is inadvertent straying into NATO airspace." "The most likely systems" under consideration, per Starr, are the Patriot and THAAD systems that have worked well in the Middle East. U.S. TURNS TO ADVERSARIES AND FRENEMIES FOR OIL: Shutting off the oil tap from Russia means finding another country to power much of the world, namely America's allies in Europe. It appears the Biden administration has identified two countries so far: Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. Senior U.S. officials traveled to Caracas on Saturday to pry Venezuela from Russia's grip and coerce the country to supplant the oil Moscow will no longer supply the West. Meanwhile, Biden aides mull a trip to Saudi Arabia for a similar reason: to get Riyadh to open the tap further so that the U.S. and its allies can keep Russia's closed. It's a major sign of how Putin's decision to invade Ukraine has reshaped global alliances and interests. The Trump administration tried to overthrow Venezuelan President NICOLÁS MADURO while Biden openly downgraded America's relationship with Riyadh over the state-directed murder of JAMAL KHASHOGGI. Now the U.S. is asking these authoritarian regimes to stand up to another dictator, and asking them to provide the West with oil. K STREET CUTS TIES WITH KREMLIN: Even after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and reports that Russia interfered in the 2016 election, the spigot of Russian money to K Street kept flowing. But it's the invasion of Ukraine that has finally convinced American lobbyists to start turning down money from Kremlin allies, reports our own HAILEY FUCHS. "Over the past eight years, firms doing legal, lobbying, and PR work reported payments of roughly $18 million to do work for six Russian entities: Sberbank, Gazprombank, Nord Stream 2 AG, Vnesheconombank, VTB Bank, and the Russian Direct Investment Fund," Fuchs writes. "Those six entities have now been targeted by sanctions from the Biden administration. And, virtually overnight, any remaining ties they had with D.C. lobbying shops have been severed." Still, "lobbying experts suspect that the same Russian institutions will find representation once again from lobbying shops eager to accept their hefty payments when the sanctions are lifted." After all, several groups cut ties with Saudi Arabia after Khashoggi's brutal murder, but the country has found itself a slate of new firms since then.
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Lockheed Martin's LMXT is built in America by Americans for Americans. The LMXT leverages 60 years of experience producing tanker aircraft for the U.S. Air Force, U.S. Marine Corps, U.S. Navy, and multiple operators around the world. Learn more. | | | IT'S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and our new fellow @JGedeon1.
| | | NEW ACTIVITY AT NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR SITE: The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies has conducted an analysis of satellite photos of North Korea's nuclear testing facility — concluding that they show new buildings and other signs of work at the site, reports NBC News' KEN DILANIAN. The Martin Center's JEFFREY LEWIS said the images, captured last week by the commercial satellite firm Maxar, indicate "very preliminary" signs of activity at the nuclear test site at Punggye-ri. The changes "are the first signs of work at the site since North Korea theatrically showed its tunnels being blown up on video in May 2018," Dilanian writes. That exhibition nearly four years ago "came a month after North Korean leader KIM JONG UN announced an end to nuclear explosives testing and tests of intermediate-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles," per Dilanian. "It was part of a diplomatic initiative between Kim and the Trump administration that later fell apart."
| | | WHY RUSSIA ISN'T SHUTTING DOWN UKRAINE'S CELL NETWORKS: Despite previous warnings by cybersecurity experts, Russian forces still haven't taken out Ukrainian phone lines and internet services as part of their ground invasion. Our own SAM SABIN and LAURENS CERULUS detail the three likely reasons why Moscow has refrained from disabling phone and data networks. First, Russian intelligence services "can eavesdrop on phone calls and emails and also gather geolocation and other metadata." Second, the Russian army "is using Ukrainian commercial networks to communicate." And third, Russian forces "don't want to destroy infrastructure that they will need if they succeed in conquering Ukraine." But if Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN decides to start bombing telecommunications infrastructure or deploying state-sponsored hackers to shut it down altogether, those could be important signals of how Russia views its odds of victory. "Putin of all people knows the intelligence benefits of keeping the networks up and running, and he expects to inherit them soon," said JAMES LEWIS, senior vice president and director of the strategic technologies program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. NATSEC OFFICIALS SPLIT ON CYBER BILL: The public fissure among top Biden administration officials over a Senate-approved hack reporting bill has inspired some perplexed reactions from national security experts, per our own ERIC GELLER. The Department of Homeland Security and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency have expressed support for the legislation, while the Justice Department and the FBI argue it would make America less safe. MATTHEW TRAVIS, a former deputy director of CISA, commented: "The optics are certainly awkward at best." TREY HERR , director of the Atlantic Council's Cyber Statecraft Initiative, bashed the bureau's role in the rift: "It's disappointing to see the FBI take a bureaucratic dispute public under the guise of a serious threat to public safety." But CHRISTOPHER OTT , a former senior cyber lawyer in DOJ's National Security Division, said the FBI's concerns deserved serious attention. "The FBI has spent years building a network of connections with private industry so that it can promulgate warnings and act on tips. Those resources are now, at best, redundant or, at worst, useless." A former senior White House cyber official added that DOJ's public statements about the bill must be "spectacularly frustrating for the majority of agencies that feel differently than DOJ does and the White House staff that is trying to run a coherent decision-making process."
| | | THE PROBLEMS WITH GETTING POLISH PLANES TO UKRAINE: On Saturday, Alex and PAUL McLEARY reported that Poland may send their MiG-29s to Ukraine if the U.S. can send F-16s Warsaw's way. There are a few challenges to making that three-way deal a reality, such as getting all the requisite approvals for the transfer of F-16s already earmarked for Taiwan. But Breaking Defense's BARTOSZ GŁOWACKI noted some other issues that could scuttle the plan. "First, it seems likely Poland would want to strip classified modern equipment off the jets before handing them over, especially given the risk of the fighters being captured by Russia," he wrote. "Then there is the question of transport. Direct flights from Bulgaria, Poland or Slovakia to Ukraine would be the easiest and fastest way, but come with a high risk of being shot by Russians, especially if they know such a deal is in the works. Transport by land would require disassembling aircraft and then re-assembling and performing flight checks after delivery to the destination, both time-consuming and risky. And any convoy of trucks carrying aircraft is a sitting duck for enemy aviation." Głowacki noted then there's also the issue of how many pilots Ukraine has available to fly the MiGs. Are there even enough maintenance staffers around to keep them in the air, or Ukrainian airports to fly them from? And then there's just the matter of time — finalizing the transfer and figuring out the logistics could take months, by which point it might be too late for anything to make a difference in stopping Russia's invasion. White House press secretary JEN PSAKI spoke today of those complications during her daily news briefing, specifically citing how questions about where the Ukrainian would pick up the planes and fly them to need to be answered, among many other questions.
| | | |   | | | | | | MENENDEZ WANTS EUROPEAN WEAPONS IN UKRAINE: Senate Foreign Relations Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) wrote to two Cabinet members pushing them to work with Poland and other nations to send materials to help Ukraine. "I welcome the administration's willingness to engage with Poland to provide Soviet-era jets to Ukraine. I urge you to work as quickly as possibly to finalize this dialogue with Poland and persuade additional NATO and Eastern European countries to transfer such aircraft to the government of Ukraine without delay," he wrote to Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN and SecDef Austin. Among the actions he'd like the U.S. to take in return: replace donated aircraft, even if on a temporary basis; have NATO deploy warplanes to the bases where the donated aircraft came from; and provide "concessionary financing and loans" to those countries along with discounted prices for U.S.-made planes. Congress is generally on board with this kind of plan. Sen. BEN SASSE (R-Neb.), a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, applauded Washington's negotiations with Warsaw. And over the weekend Sens. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) and ROB PORTMAN (R-Ohio) sent a letter to Biden in support of a deal. WHAT CONGRESS CAN DO TO HELP UKRAINE: Our own ANTONY ADRAGNA breaks down the main two ways Congress is looking to back Ukraine in the near future.
- Speaker NANCY PELOSI confirmed her chamber intends to provide "$10 billion in humanitarian, military and economic support for Ukraine" as part of the government spending bill it intends to pass this week. Assuming the Senate can pass the bill later in the week (no sure thing!), this bill would be headed for the White House.
- There's been bipartisan interest in both chambers in banning imports of Russian oil. Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) is leading a bill in the Senate, while Pelosi confirmed the House is exploring "strong legislation" to bar energy imports. The House bill would also repeal normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus and begin to cut Moscow off from the World Trade Organization. Reconciling all these ideas quickly may be a challenge. It's possible the administration moves on its own here first. Blinken said Sunday the U.S. is in "very active" discussions with countries in Europe about banning oil imports, despite the Biden administration's open resistance to the idea previously.
| | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — WHY JOSH SHIFRINSON LEFT TWITTER: Boston University's JOSH SHIFRINSON left Twitter Sunday after receiving immense criticism for questioning the reasoning behind America's deeper and deeper involvement in the Ukraine crisis. Shifrinson isn't against the Biden administration's policy per se, he was just trying to get a clear answer to what 1) America's interests in Ukraine are, and 2) what the military objectives should be. It didn't go well, as a large number of former officials, experts and run-of-the-mill trolls attacked Shrifinson's motivations, with some going as far as to suggest he was sympathetic to the Russian cause. (To be clear, he is not.) "Twitter is wonderful as a way to get information really fast and reach a broad audience," Shifrinson told NatSec Daily, who's joining the University of Maryland as a professor next school year. "It's a really bad platform to ask questions that people don't want to confront. People assume you have bad motives." That rabid reaction led Shifrinson to quit Twitter "for the foreseeable future," he said, though he was considering getting off the site long before. Still, he fears that the online mob that came after him is silencing appropriate national security discourse at a critical time. "If I wanted to have a career, I felt continuing to ask these questions could bite me in the ass. I felt a threat to my professional growth," he said, noting he's sure other scholars are keeping their questions and criticisms to themselves. "There is a mind-meld right now on Twitter between those who want to alleviate the Ukraine crisis and those who want to shut down questions." The University of Toronto's SEVA GUNITSKY lamented Shifrinson was driven off the platform, harming the core tenet of good-faith debate among experts in the public square. "[C]an I just say that driving @shifrinson off twitter was not good academic engagement and is in fact kind of fucked up," he tweeted. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — CODEPINK HAS NO PLANS TO PROTEST OUTSIDE RUSSIA'S EMBASSY: The left-leaning antiwar group spent Sunday outside the White House protesting Russia's invasion of Ukraine and NATO expansion. But the group has "no plans at the moment" to protest outside Russia's embassy in Washington, D.C., national co-director ARIEL GOLD told NatSec Daily. Gold did note, however, that "We might at some point" hold a demonstration outside the compound. "Right now we are working on a letter of solidarity with Russian anti-war protestors and building connections to them. We haven't scheduled another global day of action yet, but we will keep protesting as long as this horrific war keeps going on," she added. Many in D.C. mentioned to NatSec Daily that they found CODEPINK's desire to protest outside the White House, which is trying to end the war, odd seeing as Russia launched it. Gold made clear that her group deems the U.S. responsible for NATO expansion, and is thus at least partly responsible for the crisis. "While we denounce Putin's invasion of Ukraine and reckless veiled threat to launch nuclear weapons, [CODEPINK] also recognizes the role that the U.S. and NATO have played in stoking the geopolitical crisis that led to this war," she told us.
| | | — EMILY HORNE will step down as spokesperson of the National Security Council on March 25, The Washington Post's JOHN HUDSON first reported. She will be replaced by ADRIENNE WATSON , the NSC's deputy spokesperson and the former communications director of the Democratic National Committee. — DEBRA (STAHL) STREUSAND is now the manager of enterprise risk management engagements for development, security and operations at the Department of Veterans Affairs. She most recently was an enterprise change manager at the VA and is a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, New York Democratic Party and Rep. TED DEUTCH (D-Fla.) alum.
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Improved range and fuel offload, INDOPACOM base flexibility, automatic air-to-air refueling, and enhanced defensive systems come together in our next strategic tanker. Learn more. | | | | | | — ADRIAN WOOLDRIDGE, Bloomberg: "Opinion: As Russia Goes, So Goes State Capitalism?" — SIMON JOHNSON and OLEG USTENKO, The Los Angeles Times: "Op-Ed: Stop Financing Putin's War Machine. Cut off Russia's Oil and Gas Sales" — VALERIE HOPKINS, The New York Times: "Ukrainians Find That Relatives in Russia Don't Believe It's a War"
| | | — Biden travels to Texas: He will "speak with veterans, caregivers, and survivors about addressing the health effects of environmental exposures such as burn pits," per the White House. He also will visit the Fort Worth VA Clinic and deliver remarks at Tarrant County Resource Connection. — The Atlantic Council, 8 a.m.: "Promoting Tolerance: A Conversation with the House Abraham Accords Caucus and Regional Experts — with EL MEHDI BOUDRA, OREN EISNER, ALI RASHID AL NUAIMI, CATHY MCMORRIS RODGERS, BRADLEY SCHNEIDER, MARCUS SHEFF, WILLIAM WECHSLER and MELISSA WEISS" — The Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.: "International Women's Day 2022: Mainstreaming Gender in Security — with ANN LINDE" — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 9 a.m.: " Subcommittee Briefing: Celebrating International Women's Day: Updates from the Women-Led Democratic Movement in Belarus" — Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: "U.S. Strategic Command and U.S. Space Command in Review of the Defense Authorization Request for Fiscal Year 2023 and the Future Years Defense Program — with JAMES DICKINSON and CHARLES RICHARD" — House Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.: " Full Committee Hearing: National Security Challenges and U.S. Military Activity in North and South America — with MELISSA G. DALTON, LAURA RICHARDSON and GLEN D. VANHERCK" — House Intelligence Committee, 10 a.m.: " Full Committee Hearing: Worldwide Threats — with SCOTT BERRIER, WILLIAM BURNS, AVRIL HAINES, PAUL NAKASONE and CHRISTOPHER WRAY" — House Judiciary Committee, 10 a.m.: " Subcommittee Hearing: Reimaging Public Safety in the Covid-19 Era — with THOMAS ABT, NICHOLAS W. BROWN, EDGARDO 'EDDIE' GARCIA, SYLVESTER TURNER and more" — House Science, Space and Technology Committee, 10 a.m.: " Full Committee Hearing: Federal Climate Adaptation and Resilience for the 21st Century — with JOEL CARNEY, ALFREDO GOMEZ, INGRID KOLB and RICHARD SPINRAD" — House Veterans' Affairs Committee and Senate Veterans' Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: "Joint House and Senate VSO Legislative Presentation — with CHARLIE BROWN, RENE CAMPOS, JENNIFER DANE, PAUL DILLARD, JAMES LACOURSIERE and more" — Climate Nexus and E3G, 11 a.m.: "Energy and National Security Experts on Europe's Energy Crisis and the Geopolitics of Energy Transition — with CLAIRE HEALY, DENNIS MCGINN, TED NACE and MARIA PASTUKHOVA" — The National 911 Program, 12 p.m.: "State Directors Discuss Cybersecurity Assessment Lessons Learned and FCC 911 Activity Updates — with DAVID L. FURTH, L.V. POKEY HARRIS, FRANK POZNIAK, DAVE SANKEY and RACHEL WEHR" — The Atlantic Council, 12:30 p.m.: "Conversation With Admiral CRAIG FALLER: Global and Latin American Implications of Russia's Invasion — with ADRIENNE ARSHT, PAULA DOBRIANSKY, JASON MARCZAK and BARRY PAVEL" — The Government Executive Media Group, 1 p.m.: "Accelerating Naval Modernization: A Dispatch From WEST 2022 — with JOE BEEL, CHRIS CLEARY, BILL COLEMAN, KEN EBERT, JOHN SPRAGUE, JEFFREY TRUSSLER and AARON WEIS" — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 2 p.m.: " Subcommittee Hearing: Shifting the Power: USAID's Efforts to Support Locally-Led Development — with MICHELE SUMILAS" — The Middle East Institute, 2 p.m.: "Women in the U.S. Military — with KATIE CROMBE, ERIN MOFFITT and BILAL SAAB" — The Center for a New American Security, 2:30 p.m.: "Fireside Chat: General THIERRY BURKHARD, French Chief of Defence — with STACIE PETTYJOHN" — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 p.m.: "U.S. Army's Priorities with Gen. JAMES MCCONVILLE, Army Chief of Staff — with MARK F. CANCIAN" — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 3 p.m.: " Full Committee Hearing: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Assessing the U.S. And International Response — with VICTORIA NULAND" — The East-West Center in Washington, 4 p.m.: "The Pacific Islands Matter for America Launch — with AMI BERA , ED CASE, SATU P. LIMAYE, KEONE NAKOA, SUZANNE PUANANI VARES-LUM and more" — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 7 p.m.: " Engaging China in Arms Control — with NOBUMASA AKIYAMA, GEORGE PERKOVICH, BRAD ROBERTS, NOBUSHIGE TAKAMIZAWA, CAITLIN TALMADGE and YAO YUNZHU"
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