| | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | Presented by Lockheed Martin | | 
White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki talks to reporters at the White House on January 18, 2022 in Washington, D.C. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images | With help from Phelim Kine and Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint You don't have to be a D.C. insider to realize just how worried the Biden administration is about Russia invading Ukraine again. On Tuesday, three top U.S. officials just came out and said it. "We're now at a stage where Russia could at any point launch an attack in Ukraine," White House press secretary JEN PSAKI said during her daily news briefing. Moscow's recent military moves "signal to us that Russia is looking at Ukraine in an aggressive way," LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, told The Washington Post's JONATHAN CAPEHART in an interview this morning. And chief Pentagon spokesperson JOHN KIRBY added in his own presser that there's "no sign, no indication the Russians are willing to deescalate." Those comments worried a senior House Republican staffer: "We're staring down an Afghanistan-in-Europe type of event with thousands dead, refugee floodgates opened, and U.S.-credibility gutted. It's going to be horrible to watch," the aide texted NatSec Daily. The openly alarmist rhetoric from the administration comes after talks between Russia, the United States and its allies last week failed to stop the momentum toward war. "We can now say that we are staying on different tracks, on totally different tracks, and this is not good, and this is disturbing," Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV told CNN's FAREED ZAKARIA on Sunday. It also follows intelligence released by the Biden administration Friday that a renewed incursion could start between mid-January and mid-February. We at NatSec Daily are no calendar experts, but we're pretty confident in stating Jan. 18 falls within that timeframe. It's still unclear if Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN has made the decision to send his 100,000 troops stationed outside Ukraine over the border, but there are signs that he might be preparing to do that. The Kremlin has already thinned out its embassy in Ukraine, per The New York Times, and The Wall Street Journal noted Friday how Russia is moving its weapons stationed in the Far East westward. Now, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN is on his way to Ukraine and Germany to once again reiterate that America's preference is for the standoff to end diplomatically. After those visits, Blinken will meet with Russian Foreign Minister SERGEY LAVROV in Geneva. We're hearing there's a good chance the secretary will deliver a speech during his European trip, though details are sparse. In the meantime, the U.S. is considering sending even more weaponry to Ukraine to bolster Kyiv's defenses. Whether Blinken can pull off a diplomatic masterstroke or not is the big question, analysts say. "Russia's given every indication that there's no plan to deescalate in any meaningful way, especially given their public statements regarding the talks last week being a failure. It seems like experts and policymakers are now preparing for a range of escalatory measures," said RACHEL RIZZO, a fellow at the Center for a New American Security. | | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | DO COUNTRIES CHOOSE NATO? British Defense Secretary BEN WALLACE told Parliament on Monday that "Countries choose NATO; NATO does not choose them." Many nations "have joined the Alliance not because NATO is making them do so — but because of the freely expressed will of the governments and peoples of those countries." Okay, fine, but all 30 NATO members must agree to let another country — say, Ukraine — into the fold. So while Wallace's is a rhetorical flourish, his statement also masks something important: The U.S. and fellow NATO nations could openly refuse to let Ukraine into the alliance any time soon, potentially calming down tensions with Russia. Doing so, of course, goes against the alliance's bylaws and, in many experts' minds, invites Moscow to be even more aggressive toward Kyiv since it won't have the West's backing. We asked a NATO official to be clear about the accession process. "Membership is about a decision of all 30 Allies and nobody else. Ultimately, it is of course a political decision," the official said, adding "we haven't heard the line that NATO doesn't choose. We don't know where it comes from." The official concluded that "it is for the aspirant countries and NATO Allies to decide on NATO's membership." It's a point NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG and leaders of allied nations, including the U.S., have repeated in recent weeks. In a tweeted readout of his call with Lavrov, Blinken said "We stand by our firm commitment to include @NATO Allies and European partners, including Ukraine, in talks about our collective security." JUSTIN LOGAN , a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, says NATO would do well to close the alliance's "open door" policy to top hopefuls like Ukraine and Georgia. Consideration of their membership "was a compromise between Europeans, who knew Georgia and Ukraine were indefensible net liabilities and America, which was still drunk on unipolarity and believed that deterrence was cheap." U.S. TO SANCTION PRO-RUSSIAN SEPARATISTS: The administration is readying sanctions against pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine, which could be announced while Blinken is in Europe this week. "The pending sanctions, which will freeze the assets of at least four individuals, could be announced as early as Thursday. They would be the latest in a string of actions under an executive order signed by President Biden last April that aim to punish individuals associated with Russia's foreign aggression," The Wall Street Journal's VIVIAN SALAMA and WILLIAM MAULDIN reported. ISRAELI POLICE USED PEGASUS TO SPY ON CITIZENS: A stunning report from Israeli outlet Calcalist details how Israeli police used spyware developed by the NSO Group to spy on locals. "Israel police uses NSO's Pegasus spyware to remotely hack phones of Israeli citizens, control them and extract information from them, Calcalist has revealed. Among those who had their phones broken into by police are mayors, leaders of political protests against former Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU , former governmental employees, and a person close to a senior politician. Calcalist learned that the hacking wasn't done under court supervision, and police didn't request a search or bugging warrant to conduct the surveillance. There is also no supervision on the data being collected, the way police use it, and how it distributes it to other investigative agencies, like the Israel Securities Authority and the Tax Authority," TOMER GANON reported. "As a general policy, we do not comment on current or potential clients," the NSO Group said in a statement. "We would like to clarify that the company does not operate the systems in its customers' possession and is not involved in their operation. The company sells its products under license and supervision for the use of security bodies and state law enforcement agencies, to prevent crime and terrorism legally, and according to court orders and local law in each country." This is yet another embarrassment for the Israeli firm, which has had its spyware found on the phones of activists and journalists, among many others. IT'S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson and @AndrewDesiderio. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: X2 Technology™ delivers affordability to RAIDER X® and DEFIANT X™ FVL aircraft.
Proven X2 Technology™ powers both RAIDER X® and DEFIANT X™ aircraft. Pilots and maintainers can easily transition between aircraft, improving affordability over the life of the Army's Future Vertical Lift program. Learn More | | | | | | HOUTHIS ATTACK UAE: The Houthis in Yemen claimed responsibility for a Monday drone attack in the United Arab Emirates that killed three people, injured six and destroyed multiple fuel tankers. Roughly a dozen people died after the Saudi-led coalition bombed the Houthi-controlled Yemeni capital of Sanaa in retaliation. The Biden administration condemned the Houthi strike, saying it stood by its partners in the UAE, a country that has formed part of the Saudi-led coalition since the start of the war. In an analysis by Janes, exclusively obtained by NatSec Daily, analyst HEATHER NICELL wrote "[f]urther similar attacks targeting economic interests and strategic infrastructure in the UAE are highly likely in the coming three-to-six months, particularly as [the Houthis] attempts to demonstrate strength amid territorial losses." 'I'M AT A 10': Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. ambassador to the U.N., was also asked during the Washington Post event about her level of concern over the conflict in Ethiopia. "At a scale of one to 10, I'm at a 10," she said. "Ethiopians are in a major crisis, fighting against each other and we're seeing massive human rights violations, humanitarian concerns, as well." "My hope is we will get to a cease-fire," she continued. The conflict between the government in Addis Ababa and a slew of anti-regime fighters has shown no signs of ending. The International Committee of the Red Cross today said there are "dwindling medical supplies" that make it harder for the group and other aid workers to care for thousands in northern Ethiopia.
| | | CYBER CHIEF STAFFS UP: Our own ERIC GELLER has new details on National Cyber Director CHRIS INGLIS ' plans "to establish himself within a crowded constellation of cybersecurity leaders in the Biden administration" — including by beefing up his office and planning a pair of new projects. Inglis' staff will grow to 25 people this week and is expected to reach 75 people by the end of the year, Geller writes (for Pros!). The director also is launching initiatives focused on the security of open-source software and the American public's cyber literacy. In an interview, Inglis said the United States has "too little resilience built into this digital infrastructure, and we need to improve that. … We need to make sure that we buy that tech debt down." And as for his efforts to spread basic cybersecurity knowledge, Inglis said his office could help "increase resilience and robustness not just in technology, but in people." ALIBABA'S CLOUD A NATSEC RISK? The Biden administration is assessing whether or not the Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba's cloud business is a U.S. national security risk, per Reuters' ALEXANDRA ALPER. "The focus of the probe is on how the company stores U.S. clients' data, including personal information and intellectual property, and whether the Chinese government could gain access to it, the people said. The potential for Beijing to disrupt access by U.S. users to their information stored on Alibaba cloud is also a concern," Alper wrote. "U.S. regulators could ultimately choose to force the company to take measures to reduce the risks posed by the cloud business or prohibit Americans at home and abroad from using the service altogether." Really since the Trump administration, the U.S. has cracked down on Chinese technology firms for the threat they pose to America and its allies. The Office of Intelligence and Security inside the Commerce Department is leading this specific investigation. | | | |   | | | | | | COVID REACHES JOINT CHIEFS: Gen. MARK MILLEY, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, tested positive for Covid-19 on Sunday, per our own MYAH WARD, just days after coming into contact with President JOE BIDEN at Gen. RAYMOND ODIERNO's funeral on Wednesday. "He is experiencing very minor symptoms and can perform all of his duties from the remote location," Col. DAVE BUTLER, the Joint Chiefs spokesperson, said in a statement Monday. Butler said Milley had received his coronavirus vaccine and booster shot. Apart from Milley, Marine Commandant Gen. DAVID BERGER also tested positive for Covid-19, although all the other joint chiefs tested negative. Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN contracted the virus earlier this month, reported mild symptoms and has since recovered.
| | | "THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE TIRED OF BEING THE COPS OF THE WORLD": Rep. PETER DeFAZIO (D-Ore.) co-authored a letter to Biden in November arguing his administration's rationale for bombing targets in Syria and Iraq was unlawful. They "raise serious constitutional questions about unchecked military activities conducted by the Executive Branch in Syria and Iraq without approval from Congress, and they could lead to actions that prolong the U.S.'s involvement in 'endless wars' overseas," he wrote with Reps. NANCY MACE (R-S.C.) and JAMAAL BOWMAN (D-N.Y.). We decided to follow up with DeFazio as we hadn't heard anything from him or the administration on this since the letter. He told us not much has changed, and noted he has little power from his perch in the House to force the White House to change their ways. Further, he said that, as chair of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, he's been tied up with massive domestic bills and the 5G-aviation crisis. Still, he feels strongly the U.S. should get out of Syria and that the executive should remember it's the legislative that has the lead on authorizing war. "People in the United States are tired of this, and the military is pretty exhausted. To what end? What are we really accomplishing or doing there?" he asked rhetorically. "The American people are tired of being the cops of the world. I'm certainly tired of it and question the legal authority to do that." UKRAINE CODEL SPEAKS: Lawmakers on the bipartisan congressional delegation to Ukraine this weekend have started to offer some readouts of their meetings. Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.), a longtime supporter of Ukraine, told reporters on a phone call from Kyiv that the Senate's vote not to reimpose sanctions on Nord Stream 2 didn't sully the visit. There are "small differences over tactics," he said, adding "we didn't hide from the visual that we portrayed through last week's vote." "In fact, we told [President VOLODYMYR] ZELENSKYY and others that we were in Kyiv today in part to make sure there wasn't a false impression given by a vote on a very narrow sanction," he continued. Sen. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.), who leads the Europe panel on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and was on the trip, said in a statement that "the United States is united across party lines in support of Ukraine against Putin's belligerence." "I look forward to sharing feedback with our Senate colleagues so we can swiftly get to work on a path forward in Congress to respond to the political situation in Ukraine and Eastern Europe that safeguards Ukraine's territorial integrity, Europe's energy security and broader regional stability," the lawmaker concluded. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: X2 Technology™ delivers affordability to RAIDER X® and DEFIANT X™ FVL aircraft.
Because of their shared X2 Technology™, RAIDER X® and DEFIANT X™ will require fewer support personnel. Learn More | | | | | | XI SLAMS U.S. POLICIES: Chinese leader XI JINPING used a Davos address to criticize the Biden administration's policies, blaming Washington for instigating a new Cold War. It's worth reading that section of his speech in full: "[W]e need to discard Cold War mentality and seek peaceful coexistence and win-win outcomes. Our world today is far from being tranquil; rhetorics that stoke hatred and prejudice abound. Acts of containment, suppression or confrontation arising thereof do all harm, not the least good, to world peace and security. History has proved time and again that confrontation does not solve problems; it only invites catastrophic consequences. Protectionism and unilateralism can protect no one; they ultimately hurt the interests of others as well as one's own. Even worse are the practices of hegemony and bullying, which run counter to the tide of history. Naturally, countries have divergences and disagreements between them. Yet a zero-sum approach that enlarges one's own gain at the expense of others will not help. Acts of single-mindedly building 'exclusive yards with high walls' or 'parallel systems,' of enthusiastically putting together exclusive small circles or blocs that polarize the world, of overstretching the concept of national security to hold back economic and technological advances of other countries, and of fanning ideological antagonism and politicizing or weaponizing economic, scientific and technological issues, will gravely undercut international efforts to tackle common challenges." BONNIE GLASER, who leads the Asia team at the German Marshall Fund, says the speech won't change anything. "I don't think these messages are resonating much with Western countries anymore. There is growing realization that Xi's language and vision for world order as expressed in his speeches doesn't match up with China's policies and actions," she told NatSec Daily.
| | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: RAJAN MENON is joining Defense Priorities as director of the think tank's new grand strategy program. — STEVE MARCHESE has joined the federal government relations team at Cornerstone Government Affairs. He previously held top roles on the House Appropriations Committee and worked at the State Department's Bureau of Legislative Affairs. — TIMOTHY BROAS has joined Wilson Sonsini's government investigations practice. Broas served from 2014 to 2016 as the U.S. ambassador to the Netherlands.
| | | — SUE HALPERN, The New Yorker: "The Rise of A.I. Fighter Pilots" — ANTHONY KUHN, NPR: " North Korea Tests More Missiles, but Experts Warn Against Taking Threats at Face Value" — MARGHERITA STANCATI, The Wall Street Journal: "Taliban Intensify Efforts to Take Control of Afghanistan's Overseas Embassies"
| | | — The Jewish Institute for National Security of America, 9 a.m.: "A Stronger and Wider Peace: A U.S. Strategy for Advancing the Abraham Accords — with JENNIFER GRIFFIN, MICHAEL HERZOG, ABDULLAH AL KHALIFA and YOUSEF AL OTAIBA" — The United States Institute of Peace, 9 a.m.: "Peace and Security Issues at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation — with ABDUL HAKEEM AJIJOLA, KAMISSA CAMARA, GARTH LE PERE, JOSEPH SANY and HENRY TUGENDHAT" — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: "Subcommittee Hearing: The Strategic Importance of Digital Economic Engagement in the Indo-Pacific — with CHRISTINE BLISS and WENDY CUTLER" — The Center for a New American Security, 11 a.m.: "Virtual Fireside Chat — with FRANK KENDALL and STACIE PETTYJOHN" — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.: " The Transatlantic Relationship: A View from Spain — with JOSÉ MANUEL ALBARES BUENO and JOHN J. HAMRE" — The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 12 p.m.: "U.S.-Russia Relations: Can 'Strategic Empathy' Be A Way Forward? — with JERRY BROWN, KATRINA VANDEN HEUVEL, NICOLAI PETRO and ROBERT WRIGHT" — The American Institute for Contemporary German Studies, 1 p.m.: "Lessons from Afghanistan: The Future of German International Engagement — with RODERICH KIESEWETTER, MAGDALENA KIRCHNER, SIEMTJE MOLLER and JEFF RATHKE" — The Atlantic Council, 1 p.m.: "Women's Role in the Future of Afghanistan — with BELQUIS AHMADI, SHUKRIA BERAKZAI, HOSNA JALIL, ANITA MCBRIDE and MUQADDESA YOURISH" — House Armed Services Committee, 2 p.m.: "Subcommitee Hearing: Jurisdiction, Investigation, and Prosecution of Sexual Assault and Harassment in the National Guard — with DANIEL HOKANSON and CHARLES WALKER" — House Veterans' Affairs Committee, 2 p.m.: "Roundtable: The True Cost of Our Promise to Toxic-Exposed Veterans — with RONALD BROWN, JEN BURCH, ROSCOE BUTLER, LINDSAY CHURCH, JOHN FEAL, SHANE LIERMANN, ALEKS MOROSKY, PATRICK MURRAY, JON STEWART, ADVAITH THAMPI, CORY TITUS, ROSIE LOPEZ TORRES and JIM VALE" | | | | DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE. | | | | | Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, John Yearwood, who we fear plans an incursion for more control of this newsletter. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
No comments:
Post a Comment