🤫 Midterms go extreme

Plus: Voting fight's new venue | Sunday, January 23, 2022

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Facebook   Axios Sneak Peek By the Axios Politics team ·Jan 23, 2022 Welcome back to Sneak. ⚡Situational awareness: Come join the Axios Politics team! We're looking for a dayside Politics Editor. Apply here. Smart Brevity™ count: 897 words ... 3.5 minutes. Edited by Glen Johnson.     1 big thing: Midterms go extreme Data: Axios research; Table: Jacque Schrag/Axios Redistricting and a flood of departing incumbents are paving the way for more extreme candidates in this year's midterm elections, Axios' Stef Kight and Neal Rothschild write. Driving the news: At least 19 House districts in 12 states are primed to attract such candidates — hard partisans running in strongly partisan districts — according to Stef and Neal's analysis of districts as measured by the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI). They stretch across every region of the U.S., from Alabama to Michigan to California. While a new generation of hard-right figures like Reps. Matt Gaetz of Florida and Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia has hardened the identity of the Republican Party in recent years, 12 of the 19 districts we're watching favor Democrats. What we're watching: These 19 districts are open seats — with no incumbent running because of retirement, or the incumbent running for another office or district — and with PVI scores of at least +15R or +15D. Scores reflect redistricting changes where applicable, and the list could change as new maps are finalized. That score measures by how many points on average a given congressional district outperformed the national vote — either in favor of Republicans or Democrats — during the two most recent presidential elections. The big picture: Incumbents start with a huge advantage; 91% of them won re-election in 2018, according to OpenSecrets. When they leave, it levels the playing field for new candidates. And as districts grow more partisan, so, generally, do the candidates who step up. "Open seats are the biggest accelerant of extremism" and "breeding grounds for ideological warfare," Cook's Dave Wasserman tells Axios. Keep reading.     2. Voting fight moves to state ballots Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios   Voting-right activists are turning to state ballot initiatives after losing in Washington, Axios' Sophia Cai reports. Why it matters: While using the referendum process could be viewed as expanding direct democracy, these efforts are being met by opposition in overwhelmingly red and purple states. Lawmakers and leaders there are working to make it harder to legislate through initiative petitions. By the numbers: In 2021, the progressive Ballot Initiative Strategy Center tracked 93 bills introduced by Republican state legislatures that would make passing ballot measures more difficult. Thirteen of those bills passed in Arizona, Florida, Idaho, Arkansas and South Dakota. So far this year, another 28 such bills already have been introduced by Republicans. Democrats, meanwhile, have introduced their own set of bills to create ballot processes in Kentucky and Wisconsin and expand access to voting in Florida, among other measures. The Fairness Project, a progressive group that funds ballot measure efforts across the country, is spending $5 million on voter-education campaigns and litigation to ward off efforts by Republican-controlled legislatures to put new restrictions on the ballot process. Keep reading.     3. Charted: Why prices soar Reproduced from S&P Global; Chart: Axios Visuals Labor shortages and other factors are contributing to higher prices for goods and services, but they're also putting more money in people's pockets via higher wages, Axios' Richard Collings reported last week in the first edition of Axios Retail Deals, his Axios Pro newsletter. Why it matters: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and other lawmakers have complained about price-gouging, something President Biden also broached last week as an area of potential government intervention. What they're saying: Fran Horowitz, CEO of Abercrombie & Fitch Co., had this to say to Collings at the ICR conference this month: "Regarding stimulus … do we love when the consumer has more money in their pocket to spend? No doubt," she said. "We have wage inflation, we have strong employment, so our expectation is that we will see momentum from the consumer continue." Meanwhile: Bloomberg reports shippers are making a killing from price spikes. "Denmark's A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, the world's second-largest container carrier, was on track for an annual profit last year that would match or surpass its combined results from the past nine years." ✍️ Go deeper: Learn more and register for a free trial of Axios' new line of paid Pro subscriptions — which launched last week — through this link.     A message from Facebook Why Facebook supports updated internet regulations, including Section 230     Aaron is one of 40,000 people working on safety and security issues at Facebook. Hear more from Aaron on why Facebook supports updating regulations on the internet's most pressing challenges, including reforming Section 230 to set clear guidelines for all large tech companies.     4. Blinken's offramps Secretary of State Tony Blinken in Geneva last week. Photo: Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images   Secretary of State Tony Blinken said today there are still areas in which the U.S. and Russia may be able to find consensus, such as on arms control and the placement of missile systems in Europe, despite their standoff over Ukraine. Why it matters: Even with those diplomatic possibilities, the secretary said the U.S. will not compromise "by one iota" on Russia's highest priority demand — freezing NATO expansion, especially for Ukraine and Georgia — which would breach the alliance's "open-door" policy, Axios' Zachary Basu writes. Driving the news: During a round of Sunday show appearances, Blinken warned Russia is seeking to reestablish a "sphere of influence" to "subjugate" its neighbors to its will. That violates international norms that have helped keep peace in Europe since the collapse of the Soviet Union, he said. It also heightens the stakes far beyond the borders of Ukraine, the secretary argued on CNN's "State of the Union." "If we allow those things to go forward and stand with impunity, then that opens a Pandora's box that countries well beyond Europe will see and maybe decide to act on." Between the lines: Blinken spoke ahead of a critical week for the fate of Ukraine, as Russia awaits written answers to a set of security demands that would uproot the post-Cold War international order. Keep reading.     5. Tweet du jour Via Twitter   Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) weighs in anew on one of his Senate colleagues.   🚀 Thanks for beginning your week with us! A reminder your family, friends and colleagues can subscribe to Sneak or any of Axios' other free local and national newsletters through this link. Like this email style and format? Bring the strength of Smart Brevity® to your team — more effective communications, powered by Axios HQ.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. 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