| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza | | | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | Lawmakers return from recess this week to a massive February to-do list before President JOE BIDEN's March 1 State of the Union address. And the pressure is on: The White House and vulnerable House Democrats are desperate to quickly pass a $250 billion package aimed at boosting manufacturing and relieving supply-side clogs — a win they'd love the president to be able to trumpet at his big speech. But Congress also has to avert a government shutdown and possibly begin vetting a Supreme Court nominee. And that's to say nothing about trying to resuscitate Build Back Better. Can they do all this in a few weeks? Color us extremely skeptical: 1. A COMPLICATED COMPETITION BILL — As our Sarah Ferris reports this morning, Speaker NANCY PELOSI's House Democrats will be in "tunnel vision" this week as they clear their own version of a Senate-passed China competition bill, which garnered 19 GOP votes last June. Given those bipartisan numbers, you'd think it should sail through. Guess again. The House bill, dubbed the COMPETES Act, is full of controversial Democrat-sponsored trade provisions that trouble Republicans. That means it's destined for a conference committee, where Senate Republicans will have all the leverage since 10 of them will be needed to get it through the Senate. That's especially true considering the White House's desperation to have Biden sign the bill by March 1. Senior administration officials, including Commerce Secretary GINA RAIMONDO, have made clear they see this as the Hill's top priority before SOTU, particularly because it includes money to address the nation's semiconductor shortage. Complicating everything: House Republicans, we're told, are planning to come out in unified opposition to the bill. A Republican Study Committee memo obtained by Playbook , which will circulate this morning, claims the measure will actually "help China," not the U.S., while saying it should be called the "CONCEDES Act." Dems won't need House GOP support to pass it, but the House Republican campaign will almost certainly complicate the ability of Congress to move quickly to get anything done by March 1. One more thing: Our trade reporter Gavin Bade is hearing that Democratic members are privately peeved that leadership is circumventing the committee process on such major trade issues. So we could see internal House Dem drama too. 2. NEVER-ENDING APPROPS NEGOTIATIONS — The government runs out of money Feb. 18. Appropriators are still haggling over a long-term spending deal, with Republicans feeling zero pressure to make a deal they don't like. (No deal means Trump era-spending policies stay in place, which is fine by them.) Few expect a government shutdown — leaders are already talking about passing another stopgap spending bill to prevent it — but the issue will eat into floor time in both chambers. 3. BBB COMPLICATIONS — Democrats hoping to revive BBB talks are coming to terms with the fact that this may take a while. Last week, the Congressional Progressive Caucus called on the party to pass the bill by the SOTU — a deadline White House press secretary JEN PSAKI and Pelosi both dismissed. Progressives aren't alone in trying to up the urgency. This morning, a group of 250 left-leaning business leaders and nonprofit groups will call on the Senate to get moving on BBB, according to a copy of the letter shared with Playbook that will run as an ad in the NYT. But as we reported last week, senior Democrats have no idea what they can get Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) to agree to and how long it will take. Because of that, Democratic leaders are loath to set another deadline. Even if BBB talks commence soon, there are complications afoot: Sarah caught up with PRAMILA JAYAPAL (D-Wash.) about BBB on Friday, and while the Progressive Caucus leader did indicate that her members would swallow a smaller version of the bill than they want, she also insisted that Manchin is on board with the framework the party agreed to in October. "I believe that, even from his conversation with me after he went on Fox News [to announce he was a 'no'], that those are still the things that he supports," she said. That's news to us and pretty far from what Manchin and his allies have indicated to reporters. Not only did Manchin turn his back on that framework a long time ago, he also walked away from an even narrower deal he offered to the White House in December (pre-K, health care and climate). Yet still many on the left are struggling to accept the new reality. The businesses on the BBB letter, for example, are also still pushing for the expanded child tax credit and paid family leave, which are pipe dreams at this point. The disconnect underscores just how much work the party still has to do on BBB — and the fact it will have to compete for attention with a SCOTUS confirmation process that will take center stage in a matter of weeks. Happy legislating. MORE ON BBB: WSJ's Andrew Duehren nicely captures the near-total leverage that Manchin now has over his progressive colleagues, who are desperate to get him back to the bargaining table. "Manchin should have the pen, we should respect that whatever he wants to do will be reasonable and ultimately be historic," Rep. RO KHANNA (D-Calif.) told Duehren.
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Learn more about Amazon's commitment to their employees. | | | A NEW GIG — Some news on the home front this morning from our editor Mike Zapler: "After a terrific run on Playbook the past year, Tara is taking on a new gig as POLITICO's Chief National Correspondent. She'll be launching and headlining a new Sunday night product that aims to set the agenda for the week in Washington and beyond — plus bringing her distinctive reporting and voice to our coverage of the midterms. Finally, as a newsroom announcement that just went out put it, 'She'll continue to report on Washington and its people, and on the intersection of politics, media and culture nationally.' "Those of you who've enjoyed Tara's Friday Playbook editions of buzzy scoops on all these fronts can expect to see even more of them in the coming weeks. We're excited to see what she has in store." Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. We'll be spending a lot of time on the road in 2022 reporting on national politics and elections to supplement our core Washington coverage. Drop us a line and let us know what races you want to know more about and the places you'd like us to visit: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. JOIN US — Today at noon, Raimondo will join White House correspondent Laura Barrón-López for a virtual Women Rule interview on POLITICO Live. The interview will cover Raimondo's first year in the Biden administration, her role in pushing some key legislation, including Build Back Better and the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act, and her path to Washington from working in venture capital and serving as Rhode Island governor. RSVP here to watch live
| | A message from Amazon: At Amazon, $15 an hour is just the start. We're committed to our employees' success—whether they're here for a season or a career. Learn more. | | | BIDEN'S MONDAY: — 9:30 a.m.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief. — 11 a.m.: Biden and VP KAMALA HARRIS will host the National Governors Association for a meeting at the White House. — 2 p.m.: Biden will hold a bilateral meeting with Qatari Emir Sheikh TAMIM BIN HAMAD AL-THANI. Psaki will brief at 1 p.m. THE SENATE will meet at 3 p.m. to take up BRIDGET BRENNAN's judicial nomination, with a cloture vote at 5:30 p.m. THE HOUSE is out. BIDEN'S WEEK AHEAD: — Thursday: The president and VP will attend the National Prayer Breakfast, and Biden will head to New York for an event with Mayor ERIC ADAMS focused on guns, crime, violence and police funding. — Friday: Biden will deliver remarks on the monthly jobs report.
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President Joe Biden looks out the window of Marine One as it lands on the South Lawn of the White House on Sunday, Jan. 30. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | CONGRESS SCOOP: ECA GROUP TAKES ON ROGUE ELECTORS — The bipartisan Senate group trying to strike a deal to overhaul the Electoral Count Act is adding to its mission as it tries to ensure another Jan. 6 never happens again: a new legal process to ensure no rogue slates of electors come to D.C., according to two sources familiar with the conversations. In addition to clarifying that the VP has no authority to ignore electoral slates, raising the bar for the number of lawmakers needed to protest slates, and protecting election workers, the group is considering a legal process that would rely on a federal judge to quickly litigate any discrepancies about who won the state. The move comes after DONALD TRUMP tried to get GOP statehouses to send rogue slates of electors on his behalf to Congress on Jan. 6. The Senate gang wants to ensure that if that were to ever happen, the legal system could quickly dispense with the matter — rather than relying on Congress to figure out how to handle the situation. We're also hearing that group leader SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine) has been encouraging the members to work quickly so they can release an outline as soon as possible, perhaps in the coming days. Lawmakers in the group are meeting over Zoom again today, and staff worked all week trying to iron out the pillars of an agreement, we're told. Talks heated up after top Democrats from Biden to Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER have sent positive signals on ECA reform, after weeks downplaying the talks. Group members have taken note and were particularly encouraged to see JENNIFER RUBIN — the WaPo opinion columnist known to be close with the Biden White House — appear to suggest ECA reform is worth pursuing after dismissing it just a few weeks ago. JAN. 6 TRUMP PUTS IT IN WRITING — Trump said in a statement Sunday that MIKE PENCE "could have overturned the Election!" The context was an attack on bipartisan efforts to reform the Electoral Count Act. In an interview with CNN's Pamela Brown, Rep. ZOE LOFGREN, a member of the Jan. 6 committee, noted, "I guess he's saying [Kamala Harris] gets to choose who the next president is." Meanwhile, Trump's recent vow to pardon Jan. 6 criminals if he's ever president again had reporters asking several Republicans to respond … — Lindsey Graham: "I think it is inappropriate. I don't want to reinforce that defiling the Capitol is OK." — Chris Sununu : "Look, the folks that were part of the riots and, frankly, the assault on the U.S. Capitol, have to be held accountable." Also, a pair of GOP governors, ASA HUTCHINSON and LARRY HOGAN , said Trump should not be the future of the GOP. "With America on the wrong path, the stakes are too high to double down on failure," Hogan said. Back to the future: Look for congressional Republicans to be blanketed with questions about both of Trump's weekend statements. WHAT MAKES A WIN STREAK — The Jan. 6 select committee has been notching a string of victories in public and in private lately. But what does it really mean? In reality, the recent success "has heightened the importance of turning lofty expectations for the select panel's probe into results that are tangible to the public," Kyle Cheney and Nicholas Wu write. In other words, "the biggest challenge for the Capitol riot committee has morphed into crafting a final product that will actually resonate with a polarized and occasionally desensitized electorate, considering the relentless campaign by Trump and his allies to diminish the significance of the insurrection." UKRAINE-RUSSIA LATEST THE VIEW FROM UKRAINE — Ukrainian Ambassador OKSANA MARKAROVA downplayed any perceived tension between the country and the U.S., but continued to preach caution and patience from the West. Markarova said "there is no friction," but added: "At the same time, in order to defend our country, we cannot afford to panic. We have to get ready. All of us — not only our military, our very capable military and veterans — but also all civilians. So we know and we see what's going on." ( More from Quint Forgey) ON THE GROUND — Even in holdout Ukrainian cities like Kharkiv, pro-Russian sentiments are all but gone as they stand on the brink of a war between the neighboring nations, WSJ's Yaroslav Trofimov reports. AT THE U.N. — The U.S. is preparing to put Russia "on the defensive" at today's U.N. Security Council meeting, AP's Jim Heintz and Ellen Knickmeyer write. U.N. Ambassador LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD "said the Security Council will press Russia hard in a Monday session to discuss its massing of troops near Ukraine and fears it is planning an invasion." INSIDE THE KREMLIN — Top advisers to Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN are pushing some outlandish claims. "The West is legalizing marriage between people and animals. Ukraine's leaders are as bad as Hitler, and the country's nationalists are 'nonhumans.' These are the views found in President Vladimir V. Putin's inner circle, among the top Russian security officials who are likely to be at the table as their leader decides whether to launch an open war against Ukraine," NYT's Anton Troianovski reports from Moscow.
| | | | A message from Amazon:   | | | JUDICIARY SQUARE KNOWING THE NOMINEES — WaPo's Ann Marimow and Aaron Davis have a fascinating story on KETANJI BROWN JACKSON, a leading contender to become Biden's Supreme Court nominee. Not only would she make history as a Black woman on the bench, but she would also become the "first justice in decades with deep experience as a criminal defense attorney." Marimow and Davis go on to shed new light on another unique facet of Jackson's life experience: Years ago, her uncle was "sentenced to life under a 'three strikes' law" for a non-violent drug offense. "After a referral from Jackson, a powerhouse law firm took his case pro bono, and President BARACK OBAMA years later commuted his sentence." The full story is worth your time. CLYBURN'S CHOICE — House Majority Whip JIM CLYBURN endorsed Biden in the South Carolina primary in 2020 after extracting a promise from Biden that as president he would nominate the first Black woman to the Supreme Court. Clyburn is now trying to steer Biden toward his own pick for the job, AP's Meg Kinnard writes . "As the lobbying begins over filling the open court seat, Clyburn is harnessing his history with Biden and his stature as the No. 3 House Democrat to make a forceful case for his preferred choice, U.S. District Judge J. MICHELLE CHILDS, a jurist from his native South Carolina. It's a campaign he's making in public and in private, helping elevate Childs to an emerging short list of Black women who could soon make history." CRUNCHING THE NUMBERS — Biden won't need any GOP votes to confirm his Supreme Court selection, but Marianne LeVine reports that it isn't out of the question that the vote could garner some Republican support. "The three GOP senators who most frequently backed Biden's picks for the federal bench over the past year did so at a rate similar to the three Democrats who most often crossed the aisle to support Donald Trump's judicial nominees during his first year in office, according to a POLITICO analysis." Who are they? SUSAN COLLINS of Maine, LISA MURKOWSKI of Alaska and LINDSEY GRAHAM of South Carolina have all voted to confirm at least 60 percent of Biden's judges since his term began. ALL POLITICS CHARLIE COOK : "My friends who are Democrats, particularly those of the more progressive variety, don't seem to understand how deep they are in the political hole this year — and just how hard it might be to get out of it in 2024, particularly in the Senate." THREE'S A TREND — After a pair of pieces in WaPo and AP over the weekend that entertained the question of whether Trump's hold over the GOP is waning, NYT's Shane Goldmacher adds to the conversation this morning : "[A] fresh round of skirmishes over his endorsements, fissures with the Republican base over vaccines — a word Mr. Trump conspicuously left unsaid at Saturday's rally — and new polling all show how his longstanding vise grip on the Republican Party is facing growing strains." A GERRYMANDER WORTHY OF N.Y.'S NICKNAME — New York legislators have brought forward a "redistricting plan that could allow the size of the state's Democratic delegation in Congress to grow from 19 to as many as 22 members," Bill Mahoney reports . "The maps are expected to be approved in the coming week. Democrats, who have supermajorities in both houses of the Legislature, are poised to control the outcome of the mapmaking process in New York for the first time in generations." AN UPHILL BATTLE IN OHIO — WaPo's Michael Scherer hits the road to profile Rep. TIM RYAN (D-Ohio), whose direct appeal to blue-collar voters in the Ohio Senate race has made "him one of the most consequential Democratic candidates of the 2022 cycle, a test case on whether his party has any hope of reclaiming its erstwhile White working-class voting base." GOVS DISH TO ZACH — The nation's governors descended on Washington's Marriott Marquis over the weekend for the National Governors Association's winter meeting, the organization's first in-person meeting since the start of the pandemic. Zach Montellaro interviewed Republican Governors Association Chair DOUG DUCEY and Democratic Governors Association Chair ROY COOPER. ( The Ducey interview … The Cooper interview) BEYOND THE BELTWAY HOT ON THE RIGHT — Seattle Times' Daniel Beekman and Lewis Kamb report that Seattle's mayor considered handing over a police building to protesters: "At the height of Seattle's racial justice protests in 2020, then-Mayor Jenny Durkan's administration drafted legislation to transfer the Police Department's East Precinct building to a Black Lives Matter activist organization and researched relocating the station's operations, newly released documents show. "That June, as cops lobbed tear gas from behind barricades, and protesters on the streets surrounding the precinct called for the Police Department to be defunded, Durkan's office behind the scenes briefly contemplated handing over the multimillion dollar property that had become the focus of the demonstrations." HOT ON THE LEFT — Across the country, states are seeing attempts to ban certain books at a pace that hasn't ever been experienced before. "Such challenges have long been a staple of school board meetings, but it isn't just their frequency that has changed, according to educators, librarians and free-speech advocates," NYT's Elizabeth Harris and Alexandra Alter write , "it is also the tactics behind them and the venues where they play out. Conservative groups in particular, fueled by social media, are now pushing the challenges into statehouses, law enforcement and political races."
| | | | DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Tweet of the day — Seung Min Kim: "Peak Bloomberg story: The 'Jeopardy' winner could owe an eye-popping $630,000 in taxes" Colin Allred has Covid. Themis Klarides, a Connecticut Republican, is running for Senate instead of for governor. Ira Glasser, the former longtime head of the ACLU, criticized the organization's recently updated guidelines on what free speech cases to take. Marc Elias, the prominent Dem election lawyer, was savaged on Twitter after writing, "it probably is time for the courts to revisit New York Times v Sullivan," the landmark free speech case. — Nick Confessore responded: "In a story as old as America, a powerful man doesn't get the press coverage he wants, and then wonders whether the press has too much freedom." FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Tyler Q. Houlton is joining Convergence as VP of public affairs. He most recently was at Wolf Global Advisors, and is a Trump DHS and State Department alum. Convergence is also adding Will Flores as a client strategy director, Austin Fiala as a client strategy manager, Matt Heitmann as a junior graphic designer and Wesley Meadowcroft as a client strategy analyst. — Dentons Global Advisors-ASG is adding Xiaoqing Boynton as SVP for China, Paul Triolo as SVP for China and technology policy lead, and Kevin Allison as VP for Europe and Eurasia and technology policy. Boynton most recently was at the Biotechnology Innovation Organization, and Triolo and Allison were at the Eurasia Group. NEW — The Hudson Institute today is launching a Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East, led by senior fellow Mike Doran. The policy initiative will focus on promoting American interests in the region, particularly in the context of great power competition with Russia and China; bolstering Israel and other allies; and countering Iran and its proxies. It will also include Jonathan Schachter, Ezra Cohen, Mohammed Khalid Alyahya, Robert Greenway, Ahmad Hashemi, Rania Kisar and William Lombardo. TRANSITIONS — Sierra Kelley-Chung will be a senior policy adviser to Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.). She most recently was senior adviser to Rep. Anthony Brown (D-Md.), and is a DCCC alum. … Daniel Harder is now director for government affairs and public policy at Biogen. He most recently was director for U.S. government and public affairs at EMD Serono, and is a Mike Bishop and House Ways and Means alum. … Mike Danylak is now an SVP at the CGCN Group. He previously was comms director for Senate Energy and Natural Resources ranking member John Barrasso (R-Wyo.). … … Aaron Zelinger is now chief of staff and public policy lead at Arena-AI. He most recently co-led government deployments at Palantir Technologies and was a visiting research associate with the office of Condoleezza Rice. … Hallie Pence is now senior policy adviser for Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin. She most recently was senior adviser for Rep. Ben Cline (R-Va.). … Michael Tadeo is now director of corporate development at McGuire Research Services. He previously was a senior adviser for Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Ohio). ENGAGED — Allie Kopel, deputy chief of staff for Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), and Will Baskin-Gerwitz, comms director for Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), got engaged last week. They met in 2019 in New York while working for Mayor Bill de Blasio. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.), Garret Graves (R-La.) (5-0), Dutch Ruppersberger (D-Md.), Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) and Melanie Stansbury (D-N.M.) … David Plotz … Dylan Byers … former House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt … Nic Pottebaum … BuzzFeed's Katherine Miller … former Interior Secretary James Watt … Heather Riley … Chris Marklund … Barbara Slavin of the Atlantic Council … Ali Zaidi … Nathan Lewin … former Reps. Larry Kissell (D-N.C.) and Gwen Graham (D-Fla.) … David Thomas … CNN's Christine Romans and Clarissa Ward … Fox News' Martha MacCallum … NBC's Sarah Blackwill … E&E News' Michael Doyle … Sam Dorn … Ray Kerins … NPR's Peter Sagal … Tim Naftali … Karen Petel … USTR's Conor Harrington … Christopher Alan Chambers … Bobbie Brinegar … Rahul Prabhakar … Michael Kempner of MWW … Fred Karger … Christopher Semenas … Matthew Gottlieb … Amos Friedland … Tom O'Donnell … Tricia McLaughlin Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike Zapler, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Allie Bice, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross.
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