| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza and Rachael Bade | | | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | THE BIDEN-PUTIN CHESS MATCH — With Congress out of town and President JOE BIDEN's legislative agenda paused, Washington will be dominated by Ukraine-Russia news this week. Some major developments on Ukraine in the past 24 hours: — Early this morning, NATO announced a buildup in Eastern Europe: "NATO Allies are putting forces on standby and sending additional ships and fighter jets to NATO deployments in eastern Europe, reinforcing Allied deterrence and defence as Russia continues its military build-up in and around Ukraine." More from Reuters — The State Department on Sunday ordered all family members of U.S. government employees at the embassy in Kyiv to leave the country immediately, and it authorized the departure of some other embassy personnel. State also issued a new travel advisory for Ukraine : "Do Not Travel due to the increased threat of Russian military action." Americans in Ukraine "should consider departing now." — Top Pentagon officials, per the NYT's Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt , presented Biden with options to send "several thousand U.S. troops, as well as warships and aircraft, to NATO allies in the Baltics and Eastern Europe." The Times calls this a change in thinking by the president, arguing "the administration is now moving away from its do-not-provoke [Russia] strategy." The White House views the Times piece as a little overwrought, noting that last week at his press conference Biden said, "We're going to actually increase troop presence in Poland, in Romania, etc., if in fact he moves." A senior White House official told Playbook: "The president has publicly said that he'd deploy troops to Eastern Europe if the Russians invade so I don't really get how the NYT story advances that?" Still, the details of Biden's Ukraine briefing, delivered Saturday via video while he was at Camp David, are striking. Officials, including Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN and Gen. MARK MILLEY, the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, "presented Mr. Biden with several options that would shift American military assets much closer to Mr. Putin's doorstep … The options include sending 1,000 to 5,000 troops to Eastern European countries, with the potential to increase that number tenfold if things deteriorate … Mr. Biden is expected to make a decision as early as this week." While the White House is officially downplaying the news, it also strikes us as the kind of leak that may be intended as a public warning to Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN. NBC's Courtney Kube adds : "Among the options presented for the U.S. military in advance of an invasion were bomber flights over the region, ship visits into the Black Sea, and moving troops and some equipment from other parts of Europe into Poland, Romania, and other countries neighboring Ukraine."
| | | | A message from The American Beverage Association: At America's beverage companies our plastic bottles are made to be remade. We're carefully designing them to be 100% recyclable, including the caps—so every bottle can become a new one. That means less plastic waste in our environment. Please help us get Every Bottle Back. EveryBottleBack.org | | | We reached out to EVELYN FARKAS, the Obama administration's top Pentagon official for Russia and Ukraine. Farkas is part of an increasingly outspoken group of foreign policy experts who want Biden to do much more to deter the threat from Putin. "We need to seize the initiative from Putin — we need to make those troop deployments discussed in the New York Times article, but we also need to do much more to help Ukraine," she said. She outlined a series of other actions "that should be done immediately": — "Send some real air defense capability." She said Biden could equip the Ukrainians with an Iron Dome defense system or Patriot missiles and/or "declare an international no-fly zone." — "Help them beef up maritime security." Farkas recommended declaring "our own snap exercise" in the Black Sea/Mediterranean, because "we should not cede the seas to Russia and allow them to squeeze Ukraine's access to their waters and international maritime areas." — "Throw Putin off his game." She said Biden needs to increase the personal pain on Putin and should "release some information about his financial holdings, his corruption, and that of his cronies." — "Rally the international community." She compared the situation to SADDAM HUSSEIN's 1990 invasion of Kuwait, which united most of the world in outrage, and said Biden should be building a coalition to confront Russia diplomatically the way GEORGE H.W. BUSH did, starting with "making a ruckus at the U.N." — "Start sharing intelligence." The Biden administration is probably not telling the Ukrainians everything it knows in real time about Russian movements, and Farkas says that should change. She added, however, that "this one will have to be conducted with care because the Russians have their own intelligence operatives in Ukraine and can likely get access to whatever we give them." Alex Ward, who writes POLITICO's National Security Daily newsletter, peeled himself away from the Bills-Chiefs game to chat with a senior Baltic official. He sent in a quick recap of their conversation: The Baltic official asserted that nothing has been decided and that the U.S. still seems to be in the discussion phase. That said, Baltic nations have long pushed the U.S. to send more troops there, and throughout the crisis their governments have lobbied the U.S. to send a permanent armed presence. Echoing Farkas, the senior Baltic official told Alex that the number of troops Biden might send matters less than the capabilities they bring. For now, Ukrainian officials are celebrating the equipment that the U.S. previously agreed to send. "The second bird in Kyiv! More than 80 tons of weapons to strengthen Ukraine's defense capabilities from our friends in the USA!" tweeted Ukrainian Defense Minister OLEKSII REZNIKOV , who included pictures. "And this is not the end." Good Monday morning, and thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri. JOIN US — Biden's legislative agenda is stalled on Capitol Hill, and the Democratic Party faces a key moment of reckoning before election season. Can Democrats reset and resurrect Build Back Better, the party's $1.75 trillion social spending package? And what's next on voting issues? Join Rachael for a POLITICO Live interview with House Majority Leader STENY HOYER on Tuesday at 12:30 p.m. They'll talk Hill latest and also dig into Democrats' prospects for the midterms. Register here to watch live
| | | | A message from The American Beverage Association:   America's beverage companies are working together to reduce our industry's plastic footprint by investing in efforts to get our plastic bottles back. Our goal is for every bottle to become a new one, so they don't end up in our oceans, rivers and landfills. EveryBottleback.org | | | BIDEN'S MONDAY: — 10:30 a.m.: The president will arrive back at the White House. — 11:30 a.m.: Biden will receive the President's Daily Brief. — 5 p.m.: Biden will meet with members of the administration to work on lowering prices for working families. VP KAMALA HARRIS' MONDAY (all times Eastern): — 10:05 a.m.: The VP and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will depart Los Angeles en route to Milwaukee, Wis. — 2:20 p.m.: Harris will receive a tour of the Wisconsin Regional Training Partnership/Building Industry Group Skilled Trades Employment Program building. — 3 p.m.: Harris will deliver remarks on infrastructure with EPA Administrator MICHAEL REGAN. — 5:15 p.m.: Harris and Emhoff will depart Milwaukee to return to D.C. Press secretary JEN PSAKI will brief at 1:30 p.m. THE HOUSE and THE SENATE are out.
| | | | JOIN FRIDAY TO HEAR FROM GOVERNORS ACROSS AMERICA : As we head into the third year of the pandemic, state governors are taking varying approaches to public health measures including vaccine and mask mandates. "The Fifty: America's Governors" is a series of live conversations featuring various governors on the unique challenges they face as they take the lead and command the national spotlight in historic ways. Learn what is working and what is not from the governors on the front lines, REGISTER HERE. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks at the big anti-vaccine march Sunday in front of the Lincoln Memorial. | Patrick Semansky/AP Photo | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | CONGRESS EMMER, RISING — Our Olivia Beavers delivers some good leadership intrigue: a profile on two-time NRCC Chair TOM EMMER, who is "the hottest political hand in the House," she writes. She's right. After falling just short of flipping the House last year when Democrats were projecting double-digit gains, the Minnesota Republican is going to be the man to watch if he delivers the House for the GOP this fall, as is expected. Campaign committees are often launching pads for leadership bids, especially if the chair does well. And as Olivia notes, Emmer is not only projected to do well, he's also one of the few Republicans who gets along with leadership, as well as conservatives and centrists. Emmer told Olivia he's focused on the election and not any leadership post. But others were happy to speculate for him. "[F]ellow Republicans believe he's eyeing the whip position — which could be the House GOP's first open leadership role in years if the midterms go as expected — or another role in leadership," she writes. More from the story: "The shuffle would go like this (despite Emmer's disinterest in public drapes-measuring): House Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY would become speaker in 2023, and [STEVE SCALISE] would ascend to majority leader, leaving a likely crowded race for majority whip." Folks should also keep their eyes on GOP Conference Chair ELISE STEFANIK (N.Y.), McCarthy ally and Financial Services ranker PATRICK MCHENRY (N.C.) and chief deputy whip DREW FERGUSON (Ga.). All three are also whip contenders. ALL POLITICS HEY, BIG (PRIMARY) SPENDER! — Senate primary candidates are doling out record-shattering amounts to clinch their party's nominations. Our Natalie Allison pored through data from AdImpact, an ad tracking service, and has a story this morning highlighting some eye-popping trends: — Candidates have spent $131 million on television ads so far, which is "more than double what was spent on Senate races at this point in 2020 or 2018." It's indicative of GOP primaries in swing states where multiple DONALD TRUMP -inspired primary candidates are running. And for the Dems, it's a reminder of how close their margin is: Lose one seat, lose the majority. — In Ohio, a pair of millionaire self-funders hoping to replace Sen. ROB PORTMAN have spent $10 million each: MATT DOLAN, a state senator and part owner of the Cleveland Guardians baseball team, and investment banker MIKE GIBBONS. Only seven candidates in the past decade have shelled out that amount of money this far out from a primary (Ohio's is on May 3). — In Pennsylvania, one strategist predicted the open GOP Senate primary will yield $110 million to $130 million in ad spending, "nearly as much as both parties combined spent on ads during the state's entire 2016 Senate election," Natalie writes. Celebrity doctor MEHMET OZ has spent $5.4 million in ads in less than two months, while former hedge executive DAVID MCCORMICK has dropped $3.7 million on TV. THE NEW GOP — Governor's mansions have been one of the last places in American politics where moderate Republicans in a non-Trumpy mold remained in recent years. But that could change soon, NBC's Alex Seitz-Wald reports , as some prominent leaders leave office and Trump looks to get more deeply involved in gubernatorial primaries. "Both sides claim Virginia's recently elected Republican governor, GLENN YOUNGKIN, as one of their own and point to him as a model." THE WHITE HOUSE BLACK DEMOCRATS DISILLUSIONED WITH BIDEN — The AP's Meg Kinnard and Tom Foreman Jr., reporting from South Carolina, take the temperature of African American voters who rescued Biden from defeat in 2020. "Just 6 in 10 Black Americans said they approved of Biden in a recent poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, down from about 9 in 10 who approved in polls conducted through the first six months of Biden's presidency. "'I'm perplexed. At some points, I'm angry. I'm trying to see if there is anything redeeming,' said GEORGE HART, 73, a professor and faculty adviser to the student chapter of the NAACP at Benedict College, a historically Black institution in Columbia. 'I'm just so disillusioned, I don't know what to say.' Hart's was not a universal view in interviews with Black voters in South Carolina last week, but it is a worrisome sign for a president whose approval ratings are near record lows."
| | | | A message from The American Beverage Association:   Our plastic bottles are made to be remade. Help us get Every Bottle Back. EveryBottleBack.org | | | JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH SAY WHAT? — In a bizarro threat, former Speaker NEWT GINGRICH on Sunday said he thinks the Jan. 6 committee members are "going to face a real risk of going to jail" when Republicans retake Congress. Their crime? Apparently, doing oversight …? "This is what it looks like when the rule of law unravels," Rep. LIZ CHENEY (R-Wyo.) tweeted in response. Rolling Stone has more, noting that Gingrich is advising House GOP leadership. We're not sure exactly what Gingrich is referring to. Congress doesn't have the power to jail people — unless Republicans plan to use the "inherent contempt" power , which hasn't been used in about 100 years and is reserved for enforcing subpoenas. More likely Gingrich's remark is aimed at intimidation. Either way, it shows how the committee is getting under the GOP's skin. COMMITTEE LATEST — Chair BENNIE THOMPSON (D-Miss.) said Sunday that former A.G. BILL BARR has spoken to the committee. More from CBS HOW IT HAPPENED — WaPo's Devlin Barrett and Spencer Hsu look at how the once-obscure Insurrection Act became a fulcrum of post-2020 election far-right fantasies of Trump declaring martial law to remain in office. Promoted by people like Oath Keepers founder STEWART RHODES, in whose legal case it features, the law helped inspire some Trump supporters to travel to Washington on Jan. 6, 2021. And the Insurrection Act chatter was aided by Trump's own public flirtations with the law earlier in 2020 in the wake of racial justice protests, WaPo reports. NEW SHERIFF IN TOWN — Just a few days into the job, new GOP Virginia A.G. JASON MIYARES has fired TIM HEAPHY as counsel to the University of Virginia, per WaPo's Justin Jouvenal and Lauren Lumpkin . Heaphy has been on leave to be the Jan. 6 committee's lead investigator. Miyares' office denied that connection was at all related to the firing, which was one of dozens. Democrats called foul. THE PANDEMIC FROM 30,000 FEET — NYT's Michael Shear, Sheryl Gay Stolberg, Sharon LaFraniere and Noah Weiland have an exhaustive examination of Biden's handling of the pandemic one year in. They write that the administration has gotten a lot of its coronavirus response right, but it's faced three big challenges: 1) overreliance on vaccines and failure to prepare for variants; 2) not enough focus on testing; and 3) underestimation of the Republican rebellion against public health measures. In the end, 438,110 more people have died of Covid-19 since he took office. WTOP: "Thousands march in D.C. against COVID-19 vaccine mandates" AP: "New conservative target: Race as factor in COVID treatment" MEDIAWATCH THE LIBEL BELT — The federal trial in the libel suit SARAH PALIN brought against the NYT will finally kick off today with jury selection in New York City. "Some media advocates say the fact that the case is going to trial at all is a sign that almost a half-century of deference to the press in the courts is giving way to a more challenging legal landscape for journalists, media companies and their attorneys," Josh Gerstein writes in a big preview of the trial . He adds that the Times perhaps has less to fear in terms of monetary damages than it does from the potential airing of dirty laundry around JAMES BENNET's departure from the paper. TRUMP CARDS Rolling Stone: "Start the Steal: New MAGA Emails Reveal Plot to Hand Arizona to Trump"
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Howie Kurtz reported that Joe Biden offered to do interviews to defend Ron Klain, who's taking heat over the president's cascading problems. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Biden alum Kurt Bagley (national organizing director in 2020) is launching BFD Strategies (yes, that's the name) with other Biden-Harris alums ahead of the midterms. The group will help "campaigns and other organizations in building both on-the-ground field programs and innovative digital organizing strategies." — Miranda Margowsky is joining the Financial Technology Association as VP of comms. She most recently was a VP at Precision Strategies, and is a Hill veteran. TRANSITIONS — John Weber is now deputy director of speechwriting for Speaker Nancy Pelosi. He most recently was national press secretary and political media strategist at the AFL-CIO, and is a DNC and EMILY's List alum. … Matt VanHyfte is now comms director for the House Small Business Republicans. He most recently was press secretary for Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), and is a Trump 2020 alum. … Lauren Baldwin is now a policy analyst for America First Policy Institute's Center for American Values. She previously was a legislative correspondent for Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.). WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Christian Tom, deputy director of the White House Office of Digital Strategy, and Erika Tom, product manager for the U.S. Digital Service, welcomed Nathaniel Crawford Tom on Jan. 16. He came in at 5 lbs, 12 oz and 20 inches. Pics HAPPY BIRTHDAY: POLITICO's audio whiz Jenny Ament … Reps. Mike Thompson (D-Calif.), John Garamendi (D-Calif.), Tom O'Halleran (D-Ariz.), Lou Correa (D-Calif.) and Jake Ellzey (R-Texas) … Eric Schultz … State Department's Alex Wong … Elliott Abrams … former OMB Director and HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan … Paige Terryberry … Dax Tejera … Courtney Rowe … CNBC's Jacqui Corba … Annie Groer … The Fulcrum's David Hawkings … Protocol's Maria Harrigan … WSJ's Byron Tau … Saharra Griffin of the Council of Economic Advisers … Natalie Krings … Protect Democracy's Ian Bassin … Monica Popp of Marshall & Popp … Nathanson + Hauck's Meg Hauck … former Rep. Bart Gordon (D-Tenn.) … Roger Rafson of Gen Media Partners … TPG Capital's Mark Fields … Bernie Merritt … Christina Kanmaz … Edelman's Melanie Trottman … Shane Hand … WSJ's Gerry Baker … Abigail Disney Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike Zapler, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Allie Bice, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross.
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