| | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | Presented by Lockheed Martin | With help from Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint U.S. officials, increasingly alarmed by Russia's monthslong troop buildup near Ukraine, are warning their European counterparts that the Kremlin may be on the verge of another invasion of that country, our own NAHAL TOOSI and PAUL MCLEARY report. One senior U.S. national security official even suggested Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN may also be trying to establish some military capabilities along his western borders in case he sees a need to intervene in Belarus, whose Kremlin-aligned ruler is feuding with European neighbors. The uptick in American concern, confirmed by two U.S. officials, indicates that President JOE BIDEN 's efforts to reach some sort of equilibrium with Putin are running out of steam. Still, Russia also has at times made moves that poked at the United States and Europe before ultimately backing off and lowering tensions. Bloomberg first reported the U.S. was consulting with European governments over worries that Russia would make an armed push into Ukraine. A senior Biden administration official said the United States is consulting allies about the situation, and Vice President KAMALA HARRIS discussed it "extensively" with French President EMMANUEL MACRON. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, too, is in touch with European allies about the matter, the official said. "There has been a concerted effort in capitals around Europe to convey how concerned we are with the situation," added a U.S. official in Germany. "Information/intelligence sharing, and conversations across a broad spectrum" from the military and diplomats. A European official separately confirmed to NatSec Daily that the U.S. has sent intelligence to allies about the situation in Ukraine. One EU diplomat said U.S. officials had discussions with their embassy in Washington and "we share the same concerns" over the Russian buildup along its Ukraine's border, which includes artillery, tanks, new infantry units and other armored units that are normally based elsewhere in the country. "The EU is watching the situation very closely," EU spokesperson PETER STANO said in a statement. "The information we gathered so far is rather worrying," and the alliance has been "looking into ways to enhance Ukraine's resilience in case of further escalation," he added. Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV has denied that Russia is planning any kind of invasion , telling state-controlled media that "the movements of our armed forces on our soil shouldn't be of anyone's concern. Russia poses no threat to anyone." But he also alleged that there were "active and assertive actions" by NATO forces near Russian borders. "If necessary, we will take measures to ensure our security if there are provocative actions by our opponents near our borders,'' he said, according to Russian reports. The senior U.S. national security official, meanwhile, broke the situation down this way: "Putin is putting the capabilities in place for a very quick military intervention into either Belarus or Ukraine. Meanwhile, in the Donbas [region of Ukraine], combined Russian-separatist forces fire every day on Ukrainian forces, with no signs of any abatement." The official added it's unlikely that Putin would stage a military intervention into Belarus, but that the Russian leader likely wants to have equipment in place in case he decides there's a need to do so. There are already reports in Russian media about paratroopers going to Belarus now. Read Toosi and McLeary's full story. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: PAC-3® MSE: Advanced air defense using hit-to-kill technology to defend against incoming threats.
The PAC-3® Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) uses a revolutionary two-pulse solid rocket motor and combat-proven Hit-to-Kill technology to defeat incoming threats, including tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and aircraft. Learn More | | | | | | IRAN: GOAL OF NUCLEAR TALKS TO LIFT SANCTIONS: Iran's top negotiator on the nuclear deal, ALI BAGHERI KANI, told state-run Press TV that the only reason the regime will reenter talks later this month is to pursue an end to sanctions on his country. "The main purpose of these talks from the Islamic Republic of Iran's standpoint is to remove the illegal sanctions imposed on the Iranian nation by the US government in blatant violation of the JCPOA ... and the U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231," he said during an interview in London. He then added that the talks will not be about the 2015 nuclear pact the U.S. withdrew from during the Trump administration. ROB MALLEY is on a trip to visit Arab nations and Israel ahead of the scheduled next round of talks in Vienna, mainly to garner support for America's reentry into the deal. But analysts say that Bagheri Kani may not just be making maximalist demands, and instead is honestly saying Tehran isn't showing up to deal. "We're most likely headed for failure here," HENRY ROME, an Iran expert at the Eurasia Group consulting firm, told NatSec Daily. That means these could be the Iran deal's final days. Rome wrote us that, if it dies, it'll be replaced by: "Escalation. More [U.S.]/Israeli pressure, more Iranian nuclear activity. 2010-12 redux but worse in a lot of ways. Of course, precisely the scenario the West has sought to avoid by trying to rekindle the deal." "We're careening toward a real crisis next year," Rome said. QATAR TO REP U.S. IN AFGHANISTAN: Qatar will serve as America's diplomatic representative in Afghanistan beginning Dec. 31, Reuters' HUMEYRA PAMUK first reported. "Qatar will sign an arrangement ... to assume the role of 'protecting power' for U.S. interests to help facilitate any formal communication between Washington and the Taliban government in Afghanistan, which the United States does not recognize," Pamuk wrote. "With winter approaching, many countries realize they need to engage more to prevent the deeply impoverished country from plunging into a humanitarian catastrophe." Blinken announced the deal during a news conference today alongside Qatari Foreign Minister MOHAMMED BIN ABDULRAHMAN AL-THANI. "In accordance with the MoU that was signed today, Qatar will continue to temporarily host Special Immigrant Visa ... applicants and eligible family members whose applications are being processed," a State Department spokesperson told NatSec Daily. HOUTHIS DETAINED YEMENI STAFF AT U.S. MISSION: Houthi rebels entered the former U.S. embassy in the Yemeni capital of Sana'a and detained local security staff working there. They "continue to be detained without explanation and we call for their immediate release. The United States has been unceasing in its diplomatic efforts to secure their release," a State Department spokesperson said, adding that "the majority of the detained have been released." It's still unclear why the Houthis did this now. One potential reason is it's retaliation for the U.N. Security Council sanctioning three rebel leaders this week for masterminding attacks on Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Marib province. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington's national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we're featuring JOHN KIRBY , the Pentagon's chief spokesperson and retired Navy rear admiral. When he's not fending off our questions, Kirby chills out with two fingers of Tullamore D.E.W. Irish Whiskey, straight up. "It's not fancy, and it's not expensive," he told us via email. Then came the surprise: His drink pairs "terrific with Fig Newtons. Gotta dunk 'em, though." "M*A*S*H" fans might remember that "Fig Newtons and Scotch" was once a thing. So where to have this after-work combo? "On the back porch when the weather's nice, couch when it's not," Kirby said, before reminding us that "I'm from Florida." Cheers, John! #WERUNNATSEC: You didn't think we got lazy, did you? We've been tracking your amazing runs online and have been getting out there ourselves. Because we want to keep this going, we're announcing a virtual 5K — that's 5 kilometers or 3.11 miles — on Saturday, Dec. 4. Whenever it's convenient for you that day, go out and get your run in. Send pictures of your run with the #WeRunNatSec hashtag, which you can do solo or with a group (be safe, please!) and if you feel so inclined, post your times. But this is more of a fun run than a race, so enjoy getting some exercise outside! There's no entry fee, no gimmicks, just a day for all of us to run "together." And if it also happens to be HILARY MATFESS's birthday, so be it. (#MatFest2021, perhaps?). IT'S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson and @AndrewDesiderio. | | | | DON'T MISS POLITICO'S SUSTAINABILITY SUMMIT: Join POLITICO's Sustainability Summit on Tuesday, Nov. 16 and hear leading voices from Washington, state houses, city halls, civil society and corporate America discuss the most viable policy and political solutions that balance economic, environmental and social interests. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | ROK'S LEADING OPP CANDIDATE WANTS MORE MILITARY TIES WITH U.S.: South Korea's top opposition presidential candidate, YOON SUK YEOL, told foreign press Friday that if elected he'll seek stronger military ties to the United States and Japan — a position certain to anger a certain northern neighbor. "At a time when North Korea refuses denuclearization, bolsters its nuclear armaments and continues provocative missile tests, it's accepted as an obvious fact that we have to upgrade our sharing of reconnaissance and intelligence assets and military cooperation," he said, adding that he'd urge Biden to make dealing with Pyongyang a much greater priority. Conservatives in South Korea like Yoon have long been more hawkish on North Korea's nuclear program, while the left-leaning party currently in power is more lenient toward Pyongyang. While current President MOON JAE-IN seeks a better relationship with North Korea, he's also strengthened South Korea's armed forces — contributing to an arms race on the peninsula. AMERICAN JOURNALIST SENTENCED TO 11 YEARS IN MYANMAR: A court in military-junta-run Myanmar sentenced American reporter DANNY FENSTER to 11 years in prison — with hard labor — on three charges including immigration violations and spreading false information . He received the harshest punishment possible for his supposed crimes. "The punitive treatment of Fenster, a 37-year-old Detroit native, has been widely condemned by advocates of press freedom, the U.S. government and the international community, as the Myanmar military continues a campaign of imprisoning journalists and activists after taking power in a February coup," The Washington Post's SHIBANI MAHTANI reported. "Fenster is still facing two more serious charges, that of terrorism and sedition, which were just added and have not yet been heard. They carry sentences of up to life in prison." Fenster's work with "Frontier Myanmar" was widely respected among experts of the country and other journalists. "Everyone at Frontier is disappointed and frustrated at this decision. We just want to see Danny released as soon as possible so he can go home to his family," Editor-in-Chief THOMAS KEAN said in a statement after the sentencing. "There is absolutely no basis to convict Danny of these charges.″ Fenster's sentencing is the latest indicator of a swift repression in freedoms after the military seized control of Myanmar in a coup earlier this year. Despite U.S. sanctions to force the junta out of power, the nation's armed forces continue their despotic leadership. "We strongly condemn the regime's sentencing of Danny Fenster," a State Department spokesperson told NatSec Daily. "The ruling today represents an unjust conviction of an innocent person. We are closely monitoring Danny's situation and will continue to work for his immediate release. We will do so until Danny returns home safely to his family. Danny's detention, and that of so many other people, is a sad reminder of the continuing human rights and humanitarian crisis facing [Myanmar]."
| | | U.S. FIRMS SUPPORTING CHINA'S CHIP SUPREMACY: America's private sector is actually helping Beijing to win the battle for semiconductor leadership by investing in Chinese chip companies, The Wall Street Journal's KATE O'KEEFFE, HEATHER SOMERVILLE and YANG JIE reported. "U.S. venture-capital firms, chip-industry giants and other private investors participated in 58 investment deals in China's semiconductor industry from 2017 through 2020, more than double the number from the prior four years, according to an analysis of deals data by New York-based research firm Rhodium Group done at the Journal's request," they wrote. "Major chip company Intel Corp. is among the active investors, backing a Chinese company now called Primarius Technologies Co., which specializes in chip-design tools that U.S. companies currently lead in making, a separate Journal review of data from analytics firm PitchBook Data Inc. shows," they continued. "Beyond that, the China-based affiliates of Silicon Valley venture firms Sequoia Capital, Lightspeed Venture Partners, Matrix Partners and Redpoint Ventures have made at least 67 investments in Chinese chip-sector companies since the start of 2020, the Journal found." The administration is clear it wants U.S. industry to compete — and win — against Chinese companies for the technologies of the future. Semiconductors are crucial in this race, so U.S. officials can't be happy that some American firms are giving Chinese companies a leg up. "We have to work closely and especially closely with our partners on our export control and investment screening regimes to make sure they are postured for intense technology competition," national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN said in July. "In this regard, we are also looking at the impact of outbound U.S. investment flows that could circumvent the spirit of export controls or otherwise enhance the technological capacity of our competitors in ways that harm our national security." | | | |   | | | | | | NAVY TO CHRISTEN USNS APALACHICOLA: The U.S. Navy will christen its thirteenth Spearhead-class expeditionary fast transport, USNS Apalachicola, during a ceremony on Saturday. "This ship honors the city of Apalachicola, Florida, a city that represents America's fighting spirit and dedication to duty," Secretary of the Navy CARLOS DEL TORO said in a statement. "Apalachicola, like the other ships in the EPF class, will provide our warfighters the necessary high-speed sealift mobility and agility to accomplish any mission. I am thankful for this ship and its crew who will serve our nation for decades to come." The ship, soon to be operated by the Navy's Military Sealift Command, is "designed to transport 600 short tons of military cargo 1,200 nautical miles at an average speed of 35 knots. The ship can operate in shallow-draft ports and waterways, interfacing with roll-on/roll-off discharge facilities and on/off-loading the Abrams main battle tank," per a Pentagon press release. | | | SENATE MAY DEBATE NDAA NEXT WEEK: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report the Senate could move to kick off debate on its defense policy bill as early as next week as leaders wait on the House to send over a multitrillion-dollar climate, health and social spending package. The NDAA has been shelved in favor of the social spending bill, and Democrats had hoped to have passed it by now, a source close to Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER told our Playbook colleagues. Schumer has earned the ire of Republicans and Democrats for not bringing the NDAA to the floor, significantly limiting the window House and Senate negotiators will have to iron out compromise legislation. Democrats close to the process speculated that Schumer could be holding on to the NDAA as a vehicle for last-minute priorities, such as stalled China competitiveness legislation, or for leverage over Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) in negotiations over the $1.75 trillion social spending bill. Smith still not happy: Rep. ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.), the HASC chair, who has been out front in criticizing fellow Democrat Schumer for the delay, says it's still been radio silence from the Senate leader's office. "He hasn't called," Smith told Playbook's RYAN LIZZA. "And that is a problem. We need to pass the NDAA, and Schumer appears somewhat unaware of that reality at the moment. I'm just looking to help move us forward." OMAR INTROS RES TO BLOCK SAUDI ARMS SALE: Rep. ILHAN OMAR (D-Minn.) has introduced a resolution to block the sale of $650 million in weapons sales to Saudi Arabia. "It is simply unconscionable to sell weapons to Saudi Arabia while they continue to slaughter innocent people and starve millions in Yemen, kill and torture dissidents, and support modern-day slavery," she said in a statement. "We should never be selling human rights abusers weapons, but we certainly should not be doing so in the midst of a humanitarian crisis they are responsible for. Congress has the authority to stop these sales, and we must exercise that power." Our own ANDREW DESIDERIO tweeted about the news: "This is something that could conceivably draw some bipartisan support. Lots of congressional Republicans are still skeptical of the U.S.-Saudi security partnership post-Khashoggi."
| | | POLAND PM: "NEW KIND OF WAR" IN EUROPE: Polish Prime Minister MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI took to Facebook to condemn Belarus for sending Middle Eastern migrants to its border and Russia for using the conflict as a pretext to escalate tensions. "What we are dealing with is a new type of war," he wrote in a Thursday post, reported on by the Wall Street Journal's JAMES MARSON and DREW HINSHAW. "This is a war in which civilians and media messages are the ammunition." Belarus has sent at least 2,000 people Poland's way, prompting Warsaw to send troops to the border with the Russian ally. Moscow, then, sent bombers — which can carry nuclear weapons — to patrol over Belarus. "The defense ministers of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania warned Thursday of the risk of military confrontation," WSJ noted. Our own McLeary recently spoke with Latvian Foreign Affairs Secretary ANDRIS PELŠS about all this. "It is state sponsored human trafficking," he said. "It's not a genuine refugee crisis as we would normally see.… It's very clear that it's a concerted effort by the Belarusian government [aimed at] destabilizing the asylum seeking systems in the neighboring countries." Ten (10!) British troops have gone to Poland to help with the border issue. Today, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) blasted Belarus' handling of the situation. "The real and desperate plight of millions of people across the world being forced to flee their homes due to conflict, persecution, and severe climate-related events must never be coopted by cynical dictators desperate to advance their own political interests at any cost," he said in a statement, calling on Biden to sanction the regime in Minsk.
| | | — FIRST IN NAT SEC DAILY: PHILLIP THOMPSON started work Monday as deputy White House liaison at the Department of Homeland Security. Thompson most recently was a senior associate director of the Presidential Personnel Office at the White House. He is a NASA and Biden campaign alum. — JASON HOLLEY is joining OPR Communications in Riverside, Calif., as a senior account executive. He most recently was communications director at J.A. Green & Company, a defense lobbying firm.
| | | — ANDREW H. WATKINS, The Combating Terrorism Center: "An Assessment of Taliban Rule at Three Months" — CHIARA ALBANESE, ANIA NUSSBAUM, and SAMY ADGHIRNI, Bloomberg News: "Macron and Draghi Have Plans to Fill the Void Left by Merkel" — JEFF M. SMITH, War on the Rocks: "The Haqqani Network: The New Kingmakers in Kabul" | | A message from Lockheed Martin: HIMARS: Proven reliability for the most advanced missions today and tomorrow.
Exceeding 2 million operating hours and counting, HIMARS represents the battle-tested dependability for warfighters around the world. Learn More | | | | | | — The Biden-Xi summit: The president will meet virtually Monday evening with Chinese President XI JINPING. Throughout their conversation, "President Biden will make clear U.S. intentions and priorities and be clear and candid about our concerns with the [People's Republic of China]," per the White House. — The Istituto Affari Internazionali, 6 a.m.: "The Foreign Policy of the Draghi Government. The Opinions of Italians — with VINCENZO AMENDOLA" — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: " ROK-U.S. Strategic Forum 2021: The Road Ahead After the Biden-Moon Summit — with VICTOR CHA, JOHN J. HAMRE, KIM, HYUN-WOOK, SOHN IN-JOO, KIM JI-YOUNG, KIM JOON-HYUNG, MARK LIPPERT, EVAN MEDEIROS, MA SANGYOON, RANDALL G. SCHRIVER, SHEEN SEONG-HO, SUE MI TERRY, ALEX N. WONG, ANDREW YEO and YOON YOUNG-KWAN" — The Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.: "Do Trans-Atlantic Relations Need a Reset? — with HENRY ALT-HAAKER, MICHAL BARANOWSKI, CLÉMENT BEAUNE, CÉLIA BELIN, JAMES GOLDGEIER, FIONA HILL, MARK LEONARD, SUZANNE MALONEY and CONSTANZE STELZENMÜLLER" — The Wilson Center, 10 a.m.: "Achievements and Failures of Zelensky's Presidency at Its Midpoint — with VASYL FILIPCHUK, ANASTACIA GALOUCHKA, VERONIKA MOVCHAN and MATTHEW ROJANSKY" — The Vandenberg Coalition, 10:45 a.m.: " Is Our Strategy Denial?: A Debate on U.S.-China Policy — with ELBRIDGE COLBY and MATT POTTINGER" — Chatham House, 11 a.m.: "The Evolving Threat of Radicalization — with NASRA AYUB, DEVORAH MARGOLIN, SARAH MARSDEN, TOM WILSON" — The Computer and Communications Industry Association, 11 a.m.: "A Ready Target?: Single Vendor Reliance as a U.S. Cybersecurity Risk — with DREW BAGLEY, TIM BANTING, KAREN EVANS, PAUL ROSENZWEIG and MATT SCHRUERS" — The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, 3 p.m.: "Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate — with GRAHAM T. ALLISON, MARY ELISE SAROTTE and ROBERT ZOELLICK" Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who never consults with allies on our copy. | | | | DON'T MISS THE HALIFAX INTERNATIONAL SECURITY FORUM: Back in person for the first time since 2019, tune in as international security leaders from democracies around the world discuss key challenges at the 13th annual Halifax International Security Forum live from Nova Scotia. As an official media partner, POLITICO will livestream the conversation beginning at 3 p.m. on November 19. Check out the full three-day agenda is here. | | | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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