KNOW WHEN TO HOLD 'EM — There has remained, nearly two years in, a temptation on both the right and the left to declare political pandemic winners based on Covid case counts and deaths. It's a debate that has been reignited as Michigan's cases surged 67 percent in the last two weeks. Republicans blasted Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's early pandemic restrictions, even as her actions won White House praise. Hospitals there are now again full, and deaths are expected to follow. Resist the temptation, said Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University's School of Public Health. "I think that narratives that Democrats have gotten this all right or that Republicans have gotten this all wrong or vice versa is neither helpful nor true," he said. "It's been very frustrating to see how much Covid gets politicized." Much like poker strategy as explained by Annie Duke, Covid outcomes are the result of both luck and decision making. Understanding how much random chance is involved is important. We still don't know what sparks a particular Covid surge or what precipitates a case drop, said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. For example, Whitmer is no more responsible for the virus slamming Michigan at this particular moment than Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis was for the Delta surge hitting Florida this summer. "We may ascribe success to a certain state, but it's luck of the virus draw," Osterholm said. That doesn't mean policy is irrelevant. We may not totally understand virus patterns, but we know that Covid spreads more easily and quickly in indoor places, especially among unmasked and unvaccinated people. What's crucial, said Jha, is to "hold politicians accountable for policies but not outcomes." Over the long term, policies can change behavior and affect pandemic outcomes, but policies are also subject to short-term fluctuations and random chance, he said. On that score, policies that encourage masking, vaccinations and distancing are ones that governors should be pursuing, Jha said. About 95 percent of federal workers, for example, have been vaccinated after the Biden administration's mandate. At the very least, states shouldn't stop local governments and businesses from imposing measures to mitigate the virus spread. A governor might still get very unlucky with virus trends and they also can't totally control their residents' behavior, even if they played the right hand. Whitmer, for example, has been more encouraging of vaccines than DeSantis, but Florida still has a higher vaccination rate than Michigan. That still doesn't mean that Democrats are always playing their cards well. Cheap or free, and ubiquitous, rapid testing, for example, could help curb transmission. But neither Democratic nor Republican states are considering the idea. Jha has been tracking both Vermont and South Dakota, which have similar demographics and seasonal patterns, over the course of the pandemic. Both states have Republican governors, but they have taken drastically different approaches to managing the pandemic. Vermont, which has closed businesses and pushed masks and vaccinations, has had 65 deaths per 100,000 people, while South Dakota, which imposed no Covid related measures, has four times as many deaths: 261 per 100,000 people. Right now, neither party is showing much political appetite to reimpose harsh restrictions that might make a dent in the virus trajectory, but come with other deeper societal costs. Austria has imposed a lockdown and vaccine mandate. That is not happening here, even as the U.S. continues to see a thousand Covid deaths a day. "We have another major wave to work through, but we're doing very little to thwart it," said Eric Topol, a professor of molecular medicine and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, a medical research institute. Whitmer recommended Michganders wear masks indoors, but she didn't require them. One of the biggest recent federal policy blunders, Topol said, was the refusal to authorize vaccine boosters well before the holidays, and then not really urging those under 50 to get boosted. The best thing governors could do now is get more and more people vaccinated and boosted, Jha and Topol said. That may not help them prevent a future Covid case surge, but it would prevent their hospitals from filling and their residents from dying. Immunity for both vaccine- and infection-acquired immunity wanes at about the six-month mark, according to a CDC report . But immunity from a vaccine is more consistent — and unlike getting Covid, it comes with basically no risk of death or long-term symptoms. Even with waning immunity, vaccines do a better job of protecting people against serious illness and death. Topol said the Republican states banning vaccine mandates amounted to "idiocy." "It will come back to haunt them," he warned."There are still a lot of people at risk all over the country." Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. A programming note: We'll be off for Thanksgiving this Thursday and Friday, but we'll be back and better than ever on Monday, Nov. 29. Reach out with news, tips and Black Friday strategies at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight's author at rrayasam@politico.com, or on Twitter at @RenuRayasam.
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