News : POLITICO New Jersey Playbook: Monmouth poll offers relief to Dems

Thursday, October 28, 2021

POLITICO New Jersey Playbook: Monmouth poll offers relief to Dems

Oct 28, 2021

Presented by the New Jersey Cannabis Trade Association

Good Thursday morning!

If you told Democrats a year ago that Gov. Phil Murphy would only be leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli by 11 points, they might have a hard time believing you. But now, it's come as a relief to them.

That, anyway, is the latest poll by Monmouth University — New Jersey's most respected pollster with a history of accuracy when it comes to the state's gubernatorial races.

But there's also a big warning for Democrats about next year's midterm: Joe Biden is six points underwater, 43 percent approve to 49 percent of those who disapprove, in a state he carried by 16 points last year.

Republicans are pointing to this as a sign of something fundamentally wrong with the poll. How could you have Biden upside down and Murphy leading by 11 points? Could it be that the 1947 state Constitution's framers envisioned just such a scenario when they decided to put gubernatorial elections in odd years?

But it is a curious result, especially as our state elections have clearly gotten more nationalized, particularly in the Trump era.

My feeling is that the race is closer than 11 points, and a lot of Democrats — and virtually every Republican — I've talked to feels the same way. Around 7 points seems to be the average I hear from Democrats. But that's a gut feeling. Polls — even by the best pollsters — sometimes miss the mark. But they're also the only objective data we have on how the race looks. And that's worth a lot more than my hunch or anyone else's.

WHERE'S MURPHY? In Trenton for a 10 a.m. vaccine clinic visit with AFSCME President Lee Saunders. Then at Rutgers New Brunswick for a 6:45 p.m. rally with Bernie Sanders.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: "The administration has never had plans, nor is it making plans, for a blanket Covid-19 vaccine mandate." — A Murphy administration exclusive statement to The Lakewood Scoop , pushing back against the Project Veritas video. You don't really need me to explain why the governor's office went to that publication, do you?

HAPPY BIRTHDAY — State Sen. Jim Beach. Missed yesterday: Murphy campaign staffer George Helmy

TIPS? FEEDBACK? HATE MAIL? Email me at mfriedman@politico.com

A message from the New Jersey Cannabis Trade Association:

The New Jersey Alternative Treatment Centers (ATC) – the majority of which comprise the New Jersey Cannabis Trade Association -- have been working non-stop to prepare for adult-use cannabis sales in NJ. The ATCs have invested substantial time, money and resources into expanding their operations: hiring more staff, securing supply chains, and expanding cultivation sites. Our ATCs have ample supply to service adult-use consumers now without harming access for medical cannabis patients, who always come first.

WHAT TRENTON MADE

MURPHY'S CUP SPILLER OVER — "NJEA's political power goes beyond money," by NJ Spotlight News' Jeff Pillets: "In the past three years, New Jersey's largest teachers union has poured more than $15 million into its effort to reelect Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy. That number dwarfs contributions made by any other group in a state long dominated by special-interest politics. But with the gubernatorial election between Murphy and Republican businessman Jack Ciattarelli appearing to tighten in its final days, the New Jersey Education Association has pulled out a weapon maybe more potent than cash: feet on the ground. Thousands of rank-and-file 'Members for Murphy' have mounted one of the largest voter outreach campaigns by the teachers union in recent memory. Since mid-September, local and regional NJEA units in every county have staged phones banks, mass Zoom meetings, town halls, door-to-door canvassing sessions and assorted 'labor walks,' 'women's walks,' get-out-the-vote rallies and special 'members of color' events. Of some 203,000 dues-paying members of the NJEA — teachers, custodians, cafeteria workers, retirees and their families — it seems most have been on the street at some point this fall, especially in the heavily Democratic north Jersey towns where turnout is the key to Murphy's hopes."

STOP THE STOP THE STEAL — " Republican Jack Ciattarelli is looking to become N.J. governor by reaching moderates without losing the Trump base," by The Philadelphia Inquirer's Allison Steele: "Speaking to a crowd packed into a South Jersey strip mall, Republican Jack Ciattarelli … urged supporters to have faith in the state's election laws. 'Don't let anybody stay home because they think we can't win or because it's rigged,' Ciattarelli told the audience standing wall-to-wall in the Medford headquarters of the Burlington County GOP last week. 'It's not rigged here in New Jersey. We can win this race.' It was a rare moment for Ciattarelli, an almost-reference to Donald Trump from someone who's often tried not to discuss the former president. But spend time with his supporters, some of whom say voter fraud is a big concern, and Ciattarelli's reason for mentioning it becomes clear."

— "Phil Murphy's greatest weakness: He just can't say he's sorry | Opinion"

— "Gov. Phil Murphy is 'running like I'm 10 points behind' in tight NJ governor's race"

— "Ciattarelli Backers Revel in 'The Truckers' Vote'"

THE OBVIOUS HEIR TO LORETTA WEINBERG'S LEGACY — "An oath keeper was at the Capitol Riot. On Tuesday, he's on the ballot," by The New York Times' Tracey Tully: "[Edward] Durfee, a 67-year-old tech consultant, said he did not enter the Capitol during the assault, and he condemned the violence that led to several deaths. But he wholeheartedly embraces the ideology of the Oath Keepers, an antigovernment group that pledges to support and defend its interpretation of the Constitution against all enemies. … Mr. Durfee said he went to Washington in January to 'stop the steal' and to protest against disproved claims of election fraud … But he is more than just a fringe candidate mounting a long-shot race for the Legislature. He also leads the Republican committee in the town where he lives, Northvale, underscoring the extent to which right-wing activism has become increasingly mainstream within the G.O.P., even in a Democratic stronghold like Bergen County, less than 30 miles from Manhattan."

INTRODUCING CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. GET A FIRST LOOK AT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.

IT'S NOT LOOKING ROSY FOR O'DONNELL — "Matt O'Donnell pleads guilty, faces three years in state prison," by New Jersey Globe's David Wildstein: "Matt O'Donnell, the state's cooperating witness in a political corruption sting operation, today pleaded guilty on two counts connected to his use of straw donors to obtain public contracts for his law firm, O'Donnell McCord, that could require him to serve three years in a state prison. O'Donnell admitted to illegal activities regarding his work as the Mount Arlington borough attorney and as a tax appeal attorney for Morristown, Bloomfield and Morris County. In a revised plea agreement last month, O'Donnell admitted guilt to one count of second-degree conspiracy to commit misconduct by a corporate official and one count of third-degree conspiracy to commit tampering with public records and information. While the statutory maximum sentence is 15 years, the attorney general's office has agreed to a deal that requires O'Donnell to serve two three-year prison sentences concurrently."

THE SOUTH JERSEY FLEET WILL CONSIST OF NORCROSS' YACHT AND HELICOPTER — "South Jersey is left out so we should split up NJ Transit, report suggests," by NJ Advance Media's Larry Higgs: "A report by the Garden State Initiative suggested that South Jersey gets no respect when it comes to mass transit, and proposed breaking up NJ Transit into separate North and South Jersey transit agencies. The recommendation is among six made in "The Road to Equitable Transportation Policy in New Jersey" report by the non-profit research group that says it provides an 'alternative voice and common sense policy solutions." It was written by Professor Jon Peters. … The report identified four large rail 'transit deserts' that are five or more miles from the nearest train station, including one in, 'the vast bulk of the four most southern counties — Salem, Gloucester, Cumberland, Cape May and a small portion of Atlantic County.' Towns such as Glassboro, Woodstown and Vineland are all 'relatively close to Philadelphia, but none are served by rail transit,' the report said."

SCHOOL DEVOLVEMENT AUTHORITY — Ruiz: 'We have no choice but to prioritize,' SDA talks in lame duck, by POLITICO's Carly Sitrin: Legislative Education Chairs Sen. Teresa Ruiz and Assemblymember Pamela Lampitt told school board members on Wednesday that lawmakers plan to reignite the discussion about the beleaguered Schools Development Authority during the lame duck session. "We have no choice but to prioritize" SDA talks, Ruiz (D-Essex) said during the New Jersey School Boards Association's virtual conference, though she declined to reveal any specifics about how talks are progressing. "Without a doubt, I think this conversation is going to be had — it will probably start next week if it hasn't started already."

EARLY VOTING — Murphy defends early, in-person voting amid low turnout, by POLITICO's Matt Friedman : New Jerseyans have been slow to embrace early in-person voting, which is happening this year for the first time. But Gov. Phil Murphy, who signed the law enacting early voting, said during his coronavirus briefing on Wednesday that he's confident it will catch on. "We've got no muscle memory. We've never done this before," said Murphy, who voted early on Saturday — the first day it was available — and called it "the best voting experience in my entire voting life." "This is something that will pay dividends," he said. "If you look out three to five years from now, I think we're going to have a significant amount of early voting," Murphy said.

— "Reformers call for end to discriminatory pricing in N.J. car insurance"

— "16th District Republicans fight to stanch the bleeding"

A message from the New Jersey Cannabis Trade Association:

BIDEN TIME

TOUGH SELLINGER — Biden nominates prominent New Jersey lawyer as U.S. Attorney, by POLITICO's Katherine Landergan: President Joe Biden on Wednesday nominated Philip Sellinger, a prominent New Jersey attorney and major Democratic donor as the next U.S. Attorney for New Jersey. Sellinger is co-managing shareholder of Greenberg Traurig's New Jersey office, which he founded in 2002, and served as co-chair of the law firm's global litigation practice group from 2013 to 2017.

— "Pascrell writes IRS commissioner seeking USPS delay's impact on operations, tax filings, & refunds"

— "Aberdeen temple gets surprise visit from Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff"

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LOCAL

REMEMBER THE 'RAIN TAX'? — A hot new issue bubbles up in one New Jersey race: Stormwater management, by POLITICO's Ry Rivard: A bioswale is a sort of ditch. It's also one of the buzzwords cropping up in this year's City Council races. After the remnants of Hurricane Ida flooded Hoboken with 150 million gallons of water last month, incumbent Mayor Ravi Bhalla and the three other candidates on his slate decided to campaign largely on their plans to prevent, future flooding in the city. Now, ditches and other things from the wonky world of stormwater management have become surprising talking points. "I can't think of anybody who has had the courage to pick such a boring topic," said City Councilmember Jim Doyle, a member of Team Bhalla, the name for the nonpartisan slate running with the mayor in Tuesday's election.

RONALD AND DONALD — "Political extremism is lurking just below the ballot lines — on both sides of the aisle," by The Record's Charles Stile : "Local Republicans are also being thumped by the extremist hammer. Ronald Lin, a candidate for the Bergen County Board of County Commissioners, named his son Donald, following a tradition set by his parent, who commemorated their arrival in the United States from Taiwan in the 1981 by naming him after the president at the time, Ronald Reagan. His son was born last year. But Lin, a Trump supporter, was incensed to read a Democratic State Committee mailer taking aim at GOP candidates, including himself, even though he wasn't named. It noted that a commissioner candidate is a 'diehard Trump loyalist who named his son Donald.' Lin, a lawyer from Franklin Lakes, said the reference to his son violated an unspoken rule of campaigning to keep family members out of the line of political combat."

MIDDLETOWN HIRES MEL GIBSON FOR REVENGE — "Middletown email crash result of 'criminal cyberattack': Township," by The Asbury Park Press' Alex N. Gecan: "A 'criminal cyberattack' has wrought havoc with the township's computer systems, township officials said Tuesday. Details on the intrusion were sparse. 'The township was recently the victim of a criminal cyberattack that interrupted access to servers, including email, for approximately three weeks,' township Administrator Tony Mercantante said in an email … There was no word on who was behind the attack or if the township paid any ransom."

I SUPPORT COLUMBO DAY — " Randolph school board candidates debate 'day off' calendar controversy," by The Daily Record's WIlliam Westhoven: "Referendums, curriculum and finances were debated during a Randolph Board of Education candidates forum Monday. But with the board embroiled in controversial issues related to diversity and a school calendar stripped of Columbus Day this year, the debate, hosted by the League of Women Voters of the Morristown area echoed the 'cancel culture' debate still raging across the United States. The board's decision in the spring to rename Columbus Day as Indigenous People's Day touched off a firestorm that took a national stage … Board vice president Alison Manfred, who voted for the measures, said there was never any intention to anger or offend residents and if she could do it over, she would have tabled the measure for further discussion … But while the vocal public opposition to the board was seen as coming from conservatives, Duffy sees progressive politics influencing the current board."

— "Newark mayor, in annual address, says city's next master plan is in the works"

— " State of the City-delivering Baraka can't shake 2025 buzz"

— "Passaic County votes to send 200 inmates to Bergen County to help ease overcrowding"

— " Water contamination in four Middlesex County towns exceeds standards"

— "'He is the reason I am alive': Hunterdon men reunited after harrowing rescue during Ida"

— " Cost for Mahwah DPW complex balloons to $32 million due to COVID-related shortages"

— "Heavy rain from nor'easter causes dam collapse in [Demarest]"

— " Toms River Regional school board: 9 candidates fight for 3 seats as superintendent search, taxes dominate"

— "Virtual Jersey City BOE candidate forum addresses school district's ongoing teacher shortage"

— " Red Bulls plan to construct new training complex on massive plot of land in [Morris Township]"

— "Passaic County leaders again postpone taking a stand against West Milford gas compressor"

— " Former [Gloucester Township] Superfund site will become solar energy field, officials say"

A message from the New Jersey Cannabis Trade Association:

Last November, 67% of New Jerseyans voted in favor of a constitutional amendment to legalize cannabis, paving the way for adult-use sales. Current medical cannabis dispensaries would be the first to offer cannabis for adult use, with new licensees to follow.

The August passing of CRC regulations for adult-use cannabis sales signaled progress; however, as of today, New Jersey citizens still do not have a safe and lawful place to purchase cannabis.

The Alternative Treatment Centers (ATC) – the majority of which comprise the New Jersey Cannabis Trade Association -- have been working non-stop to prepare for adult-use cannabis sales. The ATCs have invested substantial time, money and resources into expanding their operations: hiring more staff, securing supply chains, and expanding cultivation sites.

It cannot be emphasized enough that New Jersey's ATCs have ample supply now to service adult-use consumers without harming access for medical cannabis patients, who always come first.

EVERYTHING ELSE

CAN GOD AMEND THE NJ CONSTITUTION? — "Water contamination in Hard Rock considering two NYC-area casinos 8 miles apartour Middlesex County towns exceeds standards," by The Associated Press' Wayne Parry: "Hard Rock wants to build a casino in or near New York City, even as it moves forward with a plan to build another one in northern New Jersey, about 8 miles away. Jim Allen, chairperson of the global gambling, entertainment and hospitality company owned by Florida's Seminole Indian tribe, said Tuesday that Hard Rock will submit an expression of interest to New York officials by the Dec. 10 deadline … Allen said in an interview that the company is not abandoning a plan it unveiled in 2015 to build a casino resort at the Meadowlands Racetrack just outside New York City."

TUNE IN, TURN OUT, DROP DEAD — "Turning out. Conference season arrives in Atlantic City despite the continuing pandemic," by NJBIZ's Daniel J. Munoz: "Over the course of a typical weekend, tens of thousands of guests descend upon Atlantic City, with its nine casino hotels and varied restaurant, retail and hospitality offerings. That's a problem this year: although the delta variant outbreaks of the late summer and early fall have begun to trail off, public health officials are nonetheless warning of COVID-19 spikes from holiday gatherings, and a 'twindemic' of the flu season … Michael Cerra, head of the New Jersey League of Municipalities, which has its annual conference at the Atlantic City Convention Center in November with an expected turnout of 22,000 attendees, said many people are willing to take that risk."

VACCINES — "N.J. hospital mandates booster shots for employees who received J&J vaccineield, officials say," by NJ Advance Media's Elizabeth Llorente: "University Hospital, the state's only public acute care facility, is requiring employees who received the single-dose Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine to get a booster shot by Dec. 24. The Newark hospital is believed to be the first in the state to mandate a booster for some of its workers, according to spokesman Adam Dvorin. It became the first hospital in New Jersey to mandate COVID-19 vaccination among all its employees in June. The requirement allowed for exemptions based on medical or religious reasons."

— " 32 sex abuse lawsuits now pending against Delbarton monks as 10 more complaints are filed"

CORRECTION: A POLITICO article excerpted in Wednesday's New Jersey Playbook misstated how gambling on collegiate sports operates in New Jersey. Sports betting is allowed in New Jersey, but betting on in-state college sports teams or collegiate-level athletic events taking place in New Jersey is not.

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