Thursday, September 9, 2021

The Democrats’ trillion-dollar question

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By Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri and Eugene Daniels

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DRIVING THE DAY

Just when we thought it was no longer possible, DONALD TRUMP has topped himself again — this time with a statement Wednesday celebrating Robert E. Lee, the Southern insurrectionist who fought to preserve slavery. Trump lamented the "desecration" of Richmond, Va.'s "beautiful" bronze statue of "genius" Lee, whom Trump imagines would have led America to a "total and complete victory in Afghanistan" if only he'd been born 150 years later. Trump's megaphone has been muffled by the loss of his Twitter account, and the media has mostly tuned out the firehose of outrage he issues via email. Normally we'd ignore this one too. But lest anyone forget, he is the leader of the Republican Party and might well run for president again in 2024 .

For a more, um, substantive look at Republican politics, check out this piece by Eliana Johnson in POLITICO Magazine today. It turns out the powerful Koch network has become an unlikely ally of the Biden administration as it carries out the withdrawal from Afghanistan, botched as it was. The unlikely alignment, Eliana writes, "has implications for the future of American foreign policy, adding a surprising twist to an internal debate that has consumed the Republican Party since the Bush administration's bungled forays into Iraq and Afghanistan: Now, the credibility of the small but growing isolationist wing of the GOP, which gained ground when former president Donald Trump championed some of its views, is inextricably tied to Biden's ability to manage the fallout in Afghanistan." Related: "The Trump foreign policy doctrine grows more difficult to define," by Meridith McGraw

THE DEMOCRATS' TRILLION-DOLLAR QUESTION — They started off with a jaw-dropping $6 trillion price tag, then lowered it to $3.5 trillion. Now, there's reporting suggesting Sen. JOE MANCHIN wants the total for Democrats' reconciliation plan to drop as low as $1 trillion or $1.5 trillion (though some people close to him say his comfort zone is probably closer to $2 trillion).

So what exactly will Democrats' topline number be?

Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER and Speaker NANCY PELOSI are both proceeding as if $3.5 trillion is the magic number, at least for now. Then there's Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.), who says progressives have given enough ground already: "That $3.5 trillion is already the result of a major, major compromise,"

But talk to senior Democratic congressional aides and you get a more realpolitik answer — one that's closer to Manchin than Sanders. Some predict the bill will end up at about $2 trillion, which is significantly less than even President JOE BIDEN wants.

If those aides are right — and there's reason to think they might be, given how much leverage Manchin has — that means a whole host of items on the party's wish list will have to be scaled back dramatically or dropped.

The posturing over the price tag is a reminder of how much work the party has to do as it seeks to craft their behemoth bill by the end of September. The process will kick off in earnest today as the House Ways and Means and Education and Labor committees begin marking up their proposals.

Already, there are tensions over the issues being voted on in committee today. For example, we're told the $762 billion envisioned for education — which includes more than $450 billion for child care and universal pre-K, and hundreds of billions more for school infrastructure and free community college — won't likely make it to the White House intact. (Our higher ed reporter Michael Stratford has more on Education and Labor Chair BOBBY SCOTT's bill.) Likewise, a battle for limited resources is driving the fight over which health care proposals to include, pitting the House against the Senate and White House. (Read Heather Caygle and Alice Miranda Ollstein here for the latest.)

Of course, the dollar total will be dictated by how much Democrats can generate with tax hikes and other revenue raisers — a huge area of contention itself. Democrats could find themselves with between $1 trillion and $2 trillion in revenue depending on how much they scale back the Trump tax cuts. They'll also net a large chunk of change from the prescription drug overhaul, though they're sparring over details of that plan as well.

After that, the real fight will commence: How to spend the money . Pelosi acknowledged the coming battles over limited dollars: "Where would you cut? Child care? Family medical leave paid for? Universal pre-K? Home health care?"

As two senior Democratic sources put it to us recently, the more Manchin talks, the better. Right now, most negotiations are taking place between House and Senate leadership and the White House. But the real veto power lies with Manchin and Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (D-Ariz.). So the more they communicate about what they will or won't accept, the better, per these aides: It will force Democrats to come to grips with reality of having too few dollars to do what they want — and start having the tough conversations they've only begun to broach.

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Good Thursday morning, and thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri.

MANCHIN'S NEXT MISSION: Schumer has promised to bring up long-stalled voting rights legislation when the Senate returns. The latest iteration is a bill that a small working group of Senate Democrats meeting throughout the summer has put together in an effort to attract all 50 members of the party's caucus. (Here's the full backstory from our Congress team. ) According to a congressional source familiar with the effort, with that work now done, Manchin, a member of the group, has started shopping the draft bill to Senate Republicans in an attempt to find 10 more votes to overcome a filibuster.

Senate Dems are watching the quixotic effort closely to see if it has any effect on Manchin's opposition to nuking the legislative filibuster. Manchin's success in helping put together the bipartisan infrastructure deal has removed some of the urgency in the left's campaign against the filibuster. Some Democrats believe the only way to change Manchin's mind is for the West Virginia senator to experience a series of failures in gaining GOP cooperation on what he believes should be bipartisan issues. With the government funding showdown, the debt ceiling, and now voting rights all lined up for Senate action, it should be a target rich environment.

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BIDEN'S THURSDAY:

— 10:30 a.m.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief.

— 5 p.m.: Biden will deliver remarks on the Covid-19 pandemic and the Delta variant in the State Dining Room.

VP KAMALA HARRIS' THURSDAY:

— 11 a.m.: The vice president will deliver opening remarks at the U.S.-Mexico High Level Economic Dialogue in the Indian Treaty Room. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, Commerce Secretary GINA RAIMONDO, DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS, USTR KATHERINE TAI, USAID Administrator SAMANTHA POWER and U.S. Ambassador to Mexico KEN SALAZAR will also participate.

— 3:30 p.m.: Harris will meet with abortion and reproductive health providers and patients from Texas, Mississippi, Kentucky and New Mexico in the Vice President's Ceremonial Office.

Press secretary JEN PSAKI will brief at 1 p.m.

The HOUSE is out. The following House committees will have markups on reconciliation: Education and Labor; Natural Resources; Science, Space and Technology; Small Business and Ways and Means.

The SENATE is out.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 
PLAYBOOK READS

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (R) and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris (L) greet supporters during a No on the Recall campaign event at IBEW-NECA Joint Apprenticeship Training Center on September 08, 2021 in San Leandro, California.

PHOTO OF THE DAY: California Gov. Gavin Newsom and VP Kamala Harris greet supporters during a "No on the Recall" campaign event in San Leandro, Calif., on Wednesday, Sept. 8. | Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

CONGRESS

BATTLE LINES DRAWN ON TAXES — Ahead of the Ways and Means markup today, both parties are putting their spin on the proposed tax hikes — the issue many in leadership believe will be the most contentious of all the policy fights on reconciliation. On Wednesday night the White House circulated a story by the NYT's Alan Rappeport saying "the wealthiest 1 percent of Americans are the nation's most egregious tax evaders, failing to pay as much as $163 billion in owed taxes per year."

Later, KEVIN BRADY, the ranking member on Ways and Means, went on Fox Business and called the Democratic plan "the largest expansion of the welfare state in our lifetimes, paid for with crippling tax increases on Main Street businesses." It includes hikes on anyone making over $400,000 as well as increasing the corporate rate. We'll take you though more of this in a couple days with a tax-focused Playbook policy-palooza.

Meanwhile, the National Association of Manufacturers this morning will criticize the proposed tax increases as a threat to manufacturing jobs and investment, and announce a six-figure ad campaign against them.

A DISCOURAGING SIGN — The fence around the Capitol will likely be re-erected ahead of the Sept. 18 rally, according to CNN.

GOOD LUCK — Democrats are set to make the (long-shot) case to the Senate parliamentarian that immigration reform passes muster to be included in the reconciliation bill, Marianne Levine reports.

DEMS' REVENGE — NYT's Charlie Savage reports that House Dems are trying to rein in the power of the presidency, after four years of Trump.

POLITICS ROUNDUP

FEELIN' GOOD — GAVIN NEWSOM is optimistic ahead of the California recall next week. He told Carla Marinucci: "I've been out in every part of the state, and you sort of feel, you don't intellectualize, you feel where you are, you get a sense, and I feel like we're in a really good place right now." This comes as an overwhelming number of polls show him that he will win. He did add that the whole ordeal has been "sobering."

CHRISTIE SPEAKS — Alex Isenstadt interviews CHRIS CHRISTIE ahead of the former New Jersey governor's speech on the future of the Republican Party at the Reagan Library tonight. Christie said "his speech would not be focused on Trump," the story notes, and that "he plans to stress that Republicans 'first and foremost need to be 'the party that's perceived to be telling the American people the truth' — perhaps an implicit critique of the former president." Christie denounced Trump in the final days of his presidency.

SEE YOU IN COURT — The Biden administration is preparing to sue Texas over its abortion ban law as soon as today, the WSJ's Sadie Gurman scoops. But the AP says it won't be easy to take on the state over the law.

WATCH: The political fallout of Texas's abortion ban: In the days since the Supreme Court declined to block the Texas abortion ban, politicians and advocates for abortion rights have been sounding the alarm on what this means for the future of Roe v. Wade. This week, Ryan is joined by health care reporter Alice Miranda Ollstein to break down how the Texas abortion ban made it through the court system and how it could hurt Republicans in future elections.

The Breakdown with Ryan Lizza

 

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POLICY CORNER

The latest installment of POLITICO's Recovery Lab series — which is exploring ways to speed the nation's recovery from the pandemic — drops today. It's about a fascinating topic: "how the pandemic has challenged — and changed — America's food system," editor Maura Reynolds writes in an introduction. The story, by senior food and agriculture reporter Helena Bottemiller-Evich, "looks at what the pandemic has taught us about hunger in America. Although economic hardship spiked with the unemployment rate, in the months since, hunger has declined, in part because of changes in how the government provides aid to struggling Americans. The lessons point the way to ending food insecurity in the world's wealthiest country." More from Recovery Lab

TALIBAN TAKEOVER

WHAT LIES AHEAD — The NYT's Matthieu Aikins, Salman Masood and Marc Santora write that the "Taliban continued to brutally crack down on demonstrations against their rule. The new government faces an unfolding humanitarian crisis and flaring tensions on the Afghan-Pakistan border."

HONORING THE SERVICE MEMBERS — "US troops killed in Afghan bombing awarded Purple Hearts," by AP's Lolita C. Baldor

REGARDING RESETTLEMENT — "Biden Administration Seeks New Law to Ease Afghan Refugees' Path to Green Cards," by WSJ's Michelle Hackman and Siobhan Hughes

SHAKING ON K STREET

A HEADLINE YOU WON'T SEE EVERY DAY — "Libyan Warlord Hires Ex-Clinton Aide Lanny Davis, Ex-Republican House Leader Bob Livingston, to Lobby D.C.," by WSJ's Jared Malsin and Vivian Salama

TRUMP CARDS

WaPo's Matt Viser and Josh Dawsey report that Trump has reached out to some family members of the 13 troops who were killed in the suicide bombing in Afghanistan. "Several have invited him to attend the funerals, and he has suggested he may try to do so."

 

JOIN TODAY FOR A CONVERSATION ABOUT RETURNING TO THE WORKPLACE : Businesses across the U.S. are having to navigate all sorts of complexities around vaccines, masking requirements, testing and social distancing. Join POLITICO for a conversation to explore how government, public health officials and employers are navigating the return of in-person work. The focus of the conversation will be on the solutions for creating safe, in-person workplaces. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Ted Cruz celebrated Britney Spears' potential freedom.

Rashida Tlaib dreamed a dream.

Majorie Taylor Greene and Chip Roy were fined for not wearing masks. This is Greene's second fine.

Kellyanne Conway, Seb Gorka and other Trump loyalists were asked by Biden officials to resign from advisory boards. Several of them didn't take it well.

The Afghanistan embassy is consolidating.

A guy representing Larry Elder in an ad time traveled back to adolescence, comparing Gavin Newsom to "the guy in high school who took my girlfriend, then went on to the next girl."

Kamala Harris' staff buttered up the press corps by serving In-N-Out burgers on Air Force Two on a flight back to DC from California.

SPOTTED at Cafe Milano on Wednesday night: John Kerry.

MEDIA MOVES — Mohammed el-Kurd, Amy Littlefield, Gregg Gonsalves and Ross Barkan are joining The Nation. el-Kurd will be Palestine correspondent, Littlefield will be abotion access correspondent, Gonsalves will be public health correspondent and Barkan will be a contributing writer.

STAFFING UP — The DNC announced a slate of new hires: Cameron Allen is a development assistant, Brittany Arp is an email and SMS strategist, Patricia Colón and Christina Joy Millamena are social media platforms strategists, Nick Andricola is deputy director of email and SMS, Kyle Allen is digital rapid response director, Simón Prieto is digital advertising strategist and Areya Behrouzian is COS for mobilization.

TRANSITIONS — Victoria Dillon is now chief external affairs officer for CISA. She previously managed comms for global and domestic public affairs at Cisco Systems and is a Veterans Affairs Department, Louise Slaughter and Steve Israel alum. … Maddy Boggs is now project coordinator in Russell Reynolds Associates' D.C. office. She previously was a legislative assistant for Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Calif.). … Steve DeMaura is joining Targeted Victory's corporate practice. He previously was senior director of global governance strategy and operations at Walmart. …

Alex Miehls is now a public affairs director for FTI Consulting's strategic comms segment. He previously was a primetime news producer for Fox News' "The Story with Martha MacCallum." … Davis Ingle is now a comms specialist at America First Policy Institute. He previously was an account executive at ATHOS PR and is a Trump White House, Dennis Ross and Marco Rubio alum.

ENGAGED — Camille Stewart, global head of product security strategy at Google and a fellow at Harvard's Belfer Center Cyber Project, and Jassum Gloster, a senior consultant for HP, got engaged on Aug. 28. The couple met at a mutual friend's wedding in Kenya and he surprised her with a proposal on the Amalfi Coast while they were on vacation with friends. Pics

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) … WaPo's Matt Bai HuffPost's Jonathan CohnDavid Freedlander … CAP's Glen Fukushima … AP's Matt LeeCherie Harder of the Trinity Forum … Rachel RizzoHenrique Ferreira of Sen. Cory Booker's (D-N.J.) office ... Dan Brandt of Sen. Pat Toomey's (R-Pa.) office … Ron Dotzauer ... Ken LieberthalDaniel PipesBridget Hagan of Mindset … Laura CashAimee Steel Lubin of Holland & Knight … Brian Wommack of the Council for Responsible Nutrition …Breitbart's Matt Boyle... DOJ's Michael HarperEric DraperJ. Arthur BloomKara Voght ... Dwayne Carson ... former Reps. Glenn Nye (D-Va.) and Buck McKeon (R-Calif.) … Katelyn Israelski ... Tara Setmayer Love ... Nawaid Ladak ... Vanessa Oblinger-Santos ... Diego Sánchez Gallardo ... Jeff Weintraub

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