🤫 Next border surge

Plus: Scoop - Senators collide | Wednesday, September 29, 2021

Open in app View in browser     Axios Sneak Peek By the Axios Politics team ·Sep 29, 2021 Welcome back to Sneak. The clock ticked down. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,654 words ... 6 minutes. Edited by Glen Johnson.     1 big thing: Next border surge Erika Mouynes. Photo: Alejandro Martinez Velez/Europa Press via Getty Images   Panama foreign minister Erika Mouynes expressed frustration to Axios' Stef Kight that the Biden administration seemed caught off guard by the Haitian migrant crisis because "we sounded the alarm when we should have." Why it matters: The worst may still be coming. Mouynes said there are as many as 60,000 Haitian migrants poised to make their way north to the U.S.-Mexico border. Panama is expecting more migrants to cross through the dangerous jungles of the Darién Gap this month than in all of 2019 — nearly 27,000, according to Panamanian government estimates provided to Axios. Mouynes is calling on the U.S. to help enforce a plan coordinated with countries in the region, saying, ultimately, "Let's recognize that they all are heading toward the U.S." The foreign minister wrapped up meetings Monday and Tuesday in Washington with Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and members of Congress, among others. Mouynes expressed her exasperation to Axios after spending months warning leaders across the hemisphere of the impeding Haitian wave. "We've engaged with every single authority that we can think of, that we can come across, to say, 'Please, let's pay attention to this,'" Mouynes said. A Homeland Security spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment. By the numbers: More than 85,000 migrants have passed through Panama since January — most of them Haitians. Roughly 20,000 to 25,000 Haitians have already made the trek to the U.S.-Mexico border, with most being allowed to enter the United States. Beyond those already admitted or deported back to Haiti, another 60,000 are most likely still on their way north, the minister said. The big picture: Panama is often the first country to provide medical help, food and shelter to northbound migrants — despite their travels through multiple South American countries like Colombia and Peru. "When we receive them on the Panamanian side, they're malnourished. The children are in terrible condition, so even getting them up to a healthy state takes time," the minister said. Panama and its neighbors are already working on solutions. In August, top immigration officials and attorneys general from South American governments, Mexico, Canada and the U.S. met to discuss the issue of irregular migration. It was the first time such a high-level discussion had occurred, which was "shocking" to Mouynes. Keep reading.     2. Scoop: The Manchin-Sinema climate collision Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photos: Stefani Reynolds-Pool, Alex Edelman/AFP via Getty Images   Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is rebuffing pleas from Western Democratic senators who cited extreme weather in their home states to try to gain his support for core climate provisions in President Biden's $3.5 trillion reconciliation package, Axios' Hans Nichols reports. Why it matters: Manchin's entrenched opposition puts him on a collision course with another key holdout on the spending bill, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.). She's indicated that addressing climate change is one of her top priorities in any compromise. Addressing Manchin's concerns may create an equal number of problems for Sinema — or vice versa. Manchin's reluctance to move on climate also has the potential to embolden progressive House Democrats to scuttle the companion $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill. Before voting for the traditional infrastructure bill, progressives are demanding assurances from Manchin and Sinema that they will agree to the $3.5 trillion for new social spending included in the budget reconciliation package. Driving the news: In a closed-door meeting last Thursday, Manchin rejected entreaties from several senators. The meeting was attended by a dozen members from Western states — but not Sinema. Along with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), they asked Manchin to reconsider his opposition to the Clean Electricity Payment Program. It offers incentives to utilities to provide cleaner energy, according to senators and aides. Some senators sought to project optimism afterward about moving Manchin. "We've had record hurricanes in the Southeast, flooding in the Northeast, wildfires throughout the West. It's undeniable," Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) told Axios. "I feel confident we're going to make significant strides when this is all said and done. And that includes Sen. Manchin." Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, who also attended the meeting, said: "He had constructive ideas in a number of areas and we're continuing the discussion." The big picture: The White House continues to press Manchin and Sinema to signal their support for some kind of compromise on the "soft" infrastructure package, or at least provide a top-line number to demonstrate they are serious about a package. The fate of both bills is hanging in the balance. "We're obviously at a precarious and important time in these discussions," White House press secretary Jen Psaki said today. Keep reading.     3. Celebrity pols propel ad spending A screenshot from a political ad by New Faces GOP. Via YouTube   The rise of celebrity politicians is fueling record ad spending that will likely continue to flood American airwaves through next year's midterms, industry watchers tell Axios' Lachlan Markay. Why it matters: Firebrand congressional freshmen and sophomores are raking in grassroots donations — and starring in ads from both allies and opponents alike. It's part of an explosion in small-dollar fundraising that's translating into a huge spike in paid political advertising. What they're saying: One such lawmaker, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), has become such a fixture of both Democratic and Republican ads that advertising intelligence company AdImpact built a facial recognition tool to pick up on her likeness in TV spots. Politicians like AOC or Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) are huge fundraising draws not just for themselves, but for other candidates — on both sides — who invoke them in their own appeals, according to John Link, AdImpact's vice president of sales and marketing. One particularly vivid example was a 2019 ad from the Republican group New Faces GOP, in which a photo of AOC was literally set on fire. "It's a politically charged environment," Link told Axios. "And because of that you create more emotional responses, and the way folks feel that they can respond to that emotionally is of a financial character." The big picture: That financial windfall — for celebrity officeholders and their supporters and detractors — is driving record-breaking spending on political ads this cycle, according to a new AdImpact report. The company is predicting nearly $9 billion in spending on political media through Election Day next year, the most-ever for a midterm cycle. Already, political ad spending is 61% higher than it was at this point in 2019, and 214% higher than 2017, AdImpact said in a report released today. Between the lines: AdImpact notes substantial fundraising by both parties' national campaign committees. But it says that spending will be driven in large measure by younger, more ideologically strident officeholders who are raking in huge sums. "Candidate fundraising is keeping pace with committees, driven in large part by celebrity-esque candidates' online fundraising prowess," the report says. "We found that House members with high profiles like AOC and Marjorie Taylor Greene are raising similar amounts as party leadership heavy-hitters like [Speaker] Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and [House Minority Leader] Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.)."     A message from Axios The podcast to power your day.     Start your morning with Axios Today. Hear the latest scoops from the White House and Congress, analysis on the economy and insights into trends shaping your world. In 10 minutes, you'll catch up on today's news that matters. Listen for free.     4. Democrats' moment of truth House Speaker Nancy Pelosi speaks with reporters today. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images   The "put-up or shut-up" moment has arrived for House Democrats, Axios' Sarah Mucha and Alayna Treene write. Why it matters: What happens in the next 24 hours will be a crucial indicator of how long it will take, and how difficult it will be, to fulfill Biden's agenda. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) promised a vote on the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill tomorrow. House progressives and Senate Democrats remain split on supporting the companion $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation first. Massive spending legislation depends on who blinks. The impact is less about deadlines — they've been set arbitrarily — and more about the power struggle within the Democratic Party. The resolution could determine the outcome of next year's midterm elections. The party's divisiveness could ultimately be its demise. Driving the news: Pelosi already delayed the vote on the Senate-passed, "hard" infrastructure measure once this week, conceding it did not have the votes to pass. She flexed her leadership muscles during a closed-door meeting with her caucus on Monday, during which she made clear the party should not allow negotiations on Biden's broader reconciliation package to hold the bipartisan bill hostage. Three days later, she faces the prospect of delaying that vote once again — or risking its failure. Pelosi has said flat-out she will not bring a bill to the floor unless it will pass. The latest: As late as this evening, progressives were still demanding that, at a minimum, the House, Senate and White House strike a specific agreement on the reconciliation package before voting on the infrastructure bill. They also want an agreed-upon price tag. Neither is going to happen. Manchin said this afternoon it's "not possible" for the Senate — meaning him and Sinema — to cut a deal on reconciliation before the scheduled House vote. Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), chairwoman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, also told reporters her members would defeat the bipartisan bill if it comes to the floor without such an agreement. "We can always bring it up for a vote again," she declared. Meanwhile, Democratic centrists say their patience is wearing thin after Pelosi delayed their promised vote this past Monday. "If the vote were to fail [tomorrow] or be delayed, there would be a significant breach of trust that would slow the momentum in moving forward in delivering the Biden agenda," said Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.). What's next: The House is scheduled to adjourn at the end of this week for a two-week recess. That would further delay debate on the president's signature agenda items. There's also a chance leadership keeps members in town longer to continue hashing out a deal on reconciliation, as well as addressing the debt limit. 🚨 Breaking: In a statement tonight after an Oval Office meeting between the president, Pelosi and Schumer, the White House said: "The engagement that he, his Cabinet and senior staff have been pursuing with members of Congress for months will continue going into tomorrow."     5. Pic du jour: Play ball Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images   Reps. William Timmons (R-S.C.) (left) and Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) laugh before the start of the Congressional Baseball Game at Nationals Park.     A message from Axios The podcast to power your day.     Start your morning with Axios Today. Hear the latest scoops from the White House and Congress, analysis on the economy and insights into trends shaping your world. In 10 minutes, you'll catch up on today's news that matters. Listen for free.   🐫 Thanks for reading. 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