Monday, August 23, 2021

Who’ll blink first: Pelosi or the Mod Squad?

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POLITICO Playbook

By Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri and Eugene Daniels

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DRIVING THE DAY

THIS WEEK'S BIG STORYLINE: THE PELOSI-GOTTHEIMER GAME OF CHICKEN The House returns to Washington today for a rare mid-August-recess vote on Democrats' $3.5 trillion budget — at least in theory.

One little problem: Speaker NANCY PELOSI still doesn't have the votes to pass it.

The nine moderate House Democrats led by Rep. JOSH GOTTHEIMER (N.J.) say they're not backing down from their demand that the House vote on the Senate-passed bipartisan infrastructure deal before they'll support the fiscal blueprint laying out plans for the massive reconciliation bill.

They tripled down on that in a splashy new op-ed in WaPo that published Sunday night. "Time kills deals," they wrote. "This is an old business saying and the essence of why we are pushing to get the bipartisan infrastructure bill through Congress. … We are firmly opposed to holding the president's infrastructure legislation hostage to reconciliation, risking its passage and the bipartisan support behind it."

Few in the caucus have the gall to go up against the speaker known for her "iron fist in a velvet glove" approach to leadership. And that all but ensures that the next 48 hours will be … interesting.

We made a few calls about this. Here's where things stand:

— ON THE CONTINUED DEADLOCK: For several days now, House Democratic leaders have warned their members in a series of "Dear Colleague" letters that President JOE BIDEN's agenda is in peril if these moderates tank this vote.

Over the weekend, Pelosi released her latest such missive, writing that "any delay to passing the budget resolution threatens the timetable for delivering the historic progress and the transformative vision that Democrats share." Senior Democrats hoped that a key phrase in the letter would mollify some of these members: a promise to work "hard" to pass both the BIF and the reconciliation bill by Oct. 1.

But sources close to the group of moderates tell us that this isn't going to cut it. The language, they say, makes it pretty clear that if the reconciliation package isn't ready by then, the BIF vote would also slip — which is the opposite of what they want.

Ultimately, the letter might have done more harm than good with moderates because it also doubled down on calls for a $3.5 trillion reconciliation package, suggesting that the number was "agreed to in the Senate." However, both Sens. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) and KYRSTEN SINEMA (D-Ariz.) have made it crystal clear that they won't support anything close to that number, and moderate House Dems don't want to be forced to walk the plank on a massive bill if it's just going to get cut in half by the Senate.

— THE PELOSI COLD SHOULDER? The standoff has chilled relationships between the speaker and her moderates such that over the past few days, they were barely speaking. Pelosi's camp says the speaker has been in direct contact with at least some members of the group, but sources close with the group say she has not contacted most of them directly.

Privately, they complain that Pelosi hasn't just turned a cold shoulder, she's all but blessed a public-shaming campaign against them. Over the weekend, the speaker's office blasted out letters from the leaders of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and the Democratic Women's Caucus, urging all House Democrats to vote yes on the budget. Local groups are also coming for them. (There's more where that came from …)

The moderates allege that the pressure has veered into political threats: As our Sarah Ferris scooped Friday, DCCC Chair SEAN PATRICK MALONEY (N.Y.) and his staff have been calling front-line members and warning them not to block the budget — calls some saw as a threat that they could be cut off financially if they don't step in line.

— OUTSIDE GROUPS ARE ALSO GETTING INVOLVED. On the right, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is backing these moderate Democrats in full, cheering on their protest and providing air cover back home by running ads on Facebook and local radio thanking them for standing up to leadership.

Meanwhile, on the left, progressive groups like Justice Democrats are turning the "Mod Squad" into villains on the left and fundraising off of it. One email blast with the subject line "Josh Gottheimer" attacked the leader of the centrist Problem Solvers Caucus as "one of the most conservative Democrats … being celebrated right now by the worst of the political establishment for leading an effort to block new investments in child care, paid family leave, Medicare, and fighting the climate crisis."

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Right now, four big questions hang over all of this:

QUESTION 1: IS THERE A POSSIBLE DEAL? This is unclear right now. It's hard to see a path forward if both sides stick to their original demands. But Pelosi is the queen of finding ways to twist arms, and each member has a long list of legislative priorities she could tuck into some must-pass bill down the road.

Some on the Hill have privately wondered whether leadership could promise to put the BIF on the floor by a date certain in September — even if the reconciliation bill takes longer than expected to craft. But progressives would almost certainly balk at this option, as they view delaying the BIF as their best shot at passing the reconciliation package.

QUESTION 2: SO … WHAT IF MODS REALLY DO BLOCK THE BUDGET? On Capitol Hill, there's a tendency for every crisis to feel like the end of the world. But the reality is that even if this budget vote goes down this week, it isn't the end of Biden's reconciliation package — at least not yet.

Yes, Democrats need to pass this budget to unlock reconciliation, the fast-tracking tool that enabled the party to circumvent the filibuster in the Senate. But they actually have a few weeks to get there. Many of the House committees have already started drafting their parts of the reconciliation package, and a failed vote would not necessarily stop that work. It could, however, halt committee markups of the legislation, our smart colleagues on the budget team tell us. And, of course, failure would also be a major embarrassment for Pelosi, who doesn't lose on these issues.

QUESTION 3: WILL THE RULE PASS? Before they worry about mustering the votes to pass the budget, the House will first have to adopt the rule governing debate for this process. It's not clear if Democratic leaders have the votes to even do that, though the roll call is expected tonight. Settle in for a late one and a long 48 hours afterward.

QUESTION 4: WHEN WILL BIDEN GET INVOLVED? It's one thing to say no to the speaker of the House. It's another thing to say that to the president. There's a lot of speculation that Biden will at some point get pulled into this mess and have to help corral votes. A White House official told us Biden, Cabinet members and senior White House staff are in touch with leadership and rank and file on this matter. The plan: continue to stress the need to expand Medicare, make rich Americans pay more in taxes, cut the cost of prescription drugs, tackle climate change, etc. To do this, failure is not an option.

More table-setters: "Deeply Divided, House Democrats Battle Over Priorities and Politics," by NYT's Jonathan Weisman … "'Curveballs and obstacles' face Pelosi this week as Democrats spar over $3.5 trillion budget plan," by WaPo's Tony Romm … "Pelosi, Centrist Democrats in Standoff With Key Vote Ahead," by WSJ's Kristina Peterson

Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri.

JOIN US — As the Biden administration continues to grapple with the bungled pullout from Afghanistan, Rachael and Eugene will dissect the latest with Rep. DAN CRENSHAW (R-Texas). Crenshaw — a former Navy SEAL who deployed five times overseas, including in Afghanistan — will discuss the precarious situation, his own experience and what he thinks should happen in the coming days, weeks and months. Join us Tuesday at 10 a.m.

 

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BIDEN'S MONDAY:

— 9:30 a.m.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief.

— 10 a.m.: Biden will meet with his national security team on Afghanistan in the Situation Room.

— 3:30 p.m.: Biden will welcome the 2020 WNBA champion Seattle Storm in the East Room.

Press secretary JEN PSAKI will brief at 2 p.m.

THE HOUSE will meet at 5 p.m. for legislative business, with first votes expected around 6:30 p.m. The Rules Committee will meet at 11 a.m. to formulate rules on the vehicle for the bipartisan infrastructure bill, the $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation bill and the John Lewis voting rights bill.

THE SENATE is out.

BIDEN'S WEEK AHEAD: The president will meet with his national security team on Afghanistan every day. Also:

— Tuesday: Biden will meet virtually with the G-7 leaders on Afghanistan.

— Wednesday: Biden will meet with private-sector leaders on cybersecurity.

— Thursday: Biden will welcome Israeli PM NAFTALI BENNETT for a White House visit.

 

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PLAYBOOK READS

A car is among debris that washed up against a bridge over a stream Sunday, Aug. 22, 2021, in Waverly, Tenn.

PHOTO OF THE DAY: Lethal flooding leaves debris washed up against a bridge in Waverly, Tenn., on Sunday. | Mark Humphrey/AP Photo

TALIBAN TAKEOVER

THE KABUL AIRLIFT — On Sunday night, the White House announced that over a 12-hour period at Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul on Sunday, approximately 1,700 people were evacuated on 8 U.S. military flights, and 3,400 people via coalition aircraft.

— Biden is considering extending the Aug. 31 deadline to withdraw troops in order to facilitate the evacuation of Americans and Afghan allies. Among those lobbying for it: British PM BORIS JOHNSON, according to the Telegraph.

— Even as the U.S. has extended its perimeter around Kabul's airportmore on that from Kelly Hooper — chaos reigns. "The scenes are apocalyptic," PBS NewsHour's Jane Ferguson, who is in Kabul, told NYT's Roger Cohen. "People are fainting and dying. Children are going missing."

— The potential for an ISIS attack near the airport is real, according to national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN, and the NYT's Eric Schmitt writes that the possibilities "range from a missile attack against a transport plane taking off or landing … to a bomb-laden truck or suicide bombers infiltrating the crowd outside the airport."

— Afghan staffers at the U.S. Embassy in Kabul feel "deeply disheartened" by the efforts to evacuate them from the country, and "have expressed a sense of betrayal and distrust in the U.S. government," NBC's Abigail Williams and Yuliya Talmazan write in an unsparing piece.

TOP-ED — "All the President's Yes-Men," by Tevi Troy in the WSJ: "JFK remade his decision-making process after the Bay of Pigs debacle. Biden could learn something."

— But Biden is not inclined to "fire any senior national security officials over the chaos in Kabul unless the situation drastically deteriorates," write Axios' Hans Nichols and Jonathan Swan.

WHAT RON KLAIN IS RETWEETING — Josh Marshall (@joshtpm): "If I'm not mistaken TONY BLAIR, most associated in the foreign policy realm with two of the most catastrophic decisions in decades is lecturing the US about 'grand strategy'. Got it."

THE WHITE HOUSE

POINTS OFF FOR TARDINESS — "Deadlines burn Biden," by Chris Cadelago and Natasha Korecki: "Until last week, Biden's Afghanistan policy had been defined as a rigid adherence to his withdrawal deadline. And that insistence opened him up to a wave of criticism for being both shortsighted and politically motivated … Biden's resolve seemed to recede a bit on Sunday night when, in response to two consecutive questions about his Aug. 31 deadline, he said his 'hope' was to 'not have to extend' it. …

"It wouldn't be the first time in recent months that the White House has blown through a major deadline of its own creation: the administration missed its July 4 benchmark to vaccinate 70 percent of American adults … The president's setbacks in Afghanistan and in corralling the coronavirus were due, in part, to intelligence failures and unanticipated variables. … Yet in close succession, they represent threats to Biden's reputation as a steady hand with institutional wisdom that helps him to see around corners."

VEEP ABROAD — "Kamala Harris visits Singapore to deepen ties, counter China's influence," Reuters/Singapore

CONGRESS

MCCARTHY'S BIG BIF DECISION — "McCarthy faces speakership test on infrastructure vote," by Olivia Beavers: "Republicans are still waiting to receive guidance on whether the GOP leader will whip against or withhold his influential fire on the bipartisan plan. … [H]e must both ensure moderates don't feel left out to dry and also shore up his right flank. …

"Some Republicans hope [KEVIN] MCCARTHY actively whips against the bill, whether it is tied to reconciliation or not — and they are curious if McCarthy can get all his members in line in the event of a standalone vote. Meanwhile, many centrist Republicans who say they worked with senators to craft the bipartisan legislation firmly hold that their support of the bill is contingent on Pelosi's next move. But they also want to see if McCarthy pushes the conference against the bill."

 

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PANDEMIC

CRISIS MODE — "Health worker crunch pressures states battling Delta variant," by Dan Goldberg and Alice Miranda Ollstein: "The alarming spread of new cases is draining the pool of available health workers in ways not seen since the pandemic's winter peak, forcing officials to improvise and tear up rules dictating who cares for whom. Governors and hospital directors warn that the staffing crisis is so acute that patients, whether suffering from Covid-19, a heart attack or the effects of a car accident, can no longer expect the level of care that might have been available six weeks ago. …

"The staffing crunch is more than just a nursing shortage. Radiologists, laboratory technicians, custodial staff and food-service workers are all in short supply. Some leave because of burnout, having battled the pandemic for nearly 18 months. Some who've stayed need time off to care for an infected loved one."

BEHIND THE CURTAIN — "How the U.S. vaccination drive came to rely on an army of consultants," by WaPo's Isaac Stanley-Becker: "Consultants say they helped save lives by supporting overextended public servants with specialized expertise. … But critics question whether such contracts improve government performance, arguing the arrangements are costly and difficult to oversee. Taxpayers have no way to know what precisely they are getting under no-bid contracts worth millions of dollars because the internal documents of private consultancies are not subject to public records laws."

POLITICS ROUNDUP

INCOMING — "Arizona's sham 'audit' report due to GOP-led state Senate on Monday," CNN

BIG LEGAL NEWS — NYT's @ShaneGoldmacher: "NEW w/ @maggieNYT: MARC ELIAS, the Democratic lawyer is splitting with Perkins Coie, the giant law firm. Eleven partners and three counsel joining new Elias Law Group. Elias has repped the Dem party committees etc via Perkins. This is a significant shift in Dem legal world." More details

DEPT. OF BIENNIAL HEADLINES — "Veterans are prized recruits as congressional candidates," by AP's Will Weissert in Norfolk, Va.: "Both parties anticipate a significant number of races where veterans will be opposing each other, using their military service as a foundation of their appeal even as they hold widely diverging views on issues."

CENSUS DATA DIVE — "9 of 10 fastest growing districts repped by Republicans, Census data shows," by Steve Shepard, Patterson Clark, Ming Li and Sean McMinn: "The eight congressional districts that grew the most over the past decade were all in either Texas or Florida, mostly centered around growing cities such as Dallas, Houston and Orlando. … All but one of those districts are represented by Republicans. … Because the GOP is in charge of the process in both states, these Republican incumbents are likely to find their new, smaller districts to be more hospitable than their old seats."

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

IN NEED OF HELP IN THE VOLUNTEER STATE — "Flooding in Tennessee destroys rural towns, leaving at least 21 dead, more than 20 missing," Nashville Tennessean

HOW HENRI HIT — "Tropical Storm Henri hits Rhode Island, leaving tens of thousands without power," Providence Journal

WHO RECALLS THE RECALLERS? — "Elder shakes up recall campaign team," by Carla Marinucci in Oakland: "Campaign manager LOUIS BARNETT, whose appointment was announced when [LARRY] ELDER entered the gubernatorial race in July, confirmed Sunday he no longer holds that position. In his place, Elder has hired JEFFREY CORLESS, a GOP consultant who once served as political director to U.S. Senate candidate CARLY FIORINA."

"California recall reality: Newsom could be replaced by candidate with far fewer votes," by L.A. Times' Maura Dolan

"Democrats spotlight abortion in bid to save Newsom," by Alice Miranda Ollstein and Victoria Colliver with an Oakland dateline: "Dems and their allies are hammering the message that a GOP governor could veto abortion-rights laws, cut funding for clinics and appoint anti-abortion agency officials."

HARSH SPOTLIGHT ON DESANTIS — "In Florida, DeSantis cut jobless aid just as virus began terrifying new wave," by WaPo's Yeganeh Torbati in Davenport, Fla.

MEDIAWATCH

BIG RETENTION FOR MSNBC — "Rachel Maddow has reached a new deal to stay at MSNBC," by Insider's Claire Atkinson: "After months of talks with a host of other networks, RACHEL MADDOW has opted to stay put thanks to a new multi-year contract that will include developing new projects with MSNBC and parent company NBCUniversal … Maddow hired super-agent Ari Emanuel to negotiate a new deal …

"The new deal will give Maddow the opportunity to develop a raft of multi-media projects, including books and movies of her choice … The news appears to be NBCUniversal News Chairman CESAR CONDE's first major talent contract renewal at MSNBC."

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service is announcing its fall class of fellows: Charlotte Clymer, Rory Cooper, Bob Lighthizer, Amna Nawaz, Rebecca Pearcey and Brian Stelter.

Amanda Golden is now a news comms manager at Google. She most recently was a political reporter covering Capitol Hill and the White House for NBC News and MSNBC, and is a CNN alum.

TRANSITIONS — Jacques Petit is the new comms director for Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz). He most recently was at GMMB, and is a Biden campaign and Giffords alum. … Jason Alinsky is joining the political shop at the Progressive Turnout Project as a regional coordinator. He's a People For the American Way and Jamie Raskin alum. … Kaylie Hanson Long is returning to Sen. Chris Murphy's (D-Conn.) office as a senior adviser. She most recently was deputy campaign manager for Jennifer Carroll Foy's Virginia gubernatorial campaign.

ENGAGED — David O'Brien, director of strategic comms at the National Association of Manufacturers, proposed to Laura Peavey, comms director for the House Financial Services GOP, on the Eastern Shore this weekend. The couple celebrated with a sunset cruise and plenty of champagne. Pic

— Kindred Motes, founder and managing director of KM Strategies, and Raul Caso, surgery resident at Georgetown University Hospital pursuing a career in thoracic surgery, got engaged July 23 at Tudor Place in Georgetown. The two kept the engagement a secret for a month before announcing it to family and friends on social media from Spain, where they're spending a week celebrating. They first met at Astoria Bar after matching on Hinge. Pic

— Megan Cagle, director of comms for New American Leaders, and Robin Dutta , senior manager of market development and policy at SunPower Corporation, got engaged Friday in Old Town Alexandria, where Robin surprised Megan while they were walking along the waterfront with their dog, Frida. The couple met in 2012 at a campaign manager training hosted by the DLCC. Pic

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Jett Thompson, deputy chief of staff and legislative director for Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-Okla.), and Kimberly Thompson, a school meals program specialist with the D.C. government, welcomed John Edward Thompson IV on Wednesday at GW Hospital. He came in at 7 lbs, 4 oz. Pic

BIRTHWEEK (was Aug. 16): Machmud Makhmudov of the White House

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (5-0) … Reps. Scott Franklin (R-Fla.) and Kim Schrier (D-Wash.) … Stephen Miller … Axios' Alexi McCammond … NBC's Mike Memoli and Julie Tsirkin … Roll Call's Niels Lesniewski ... Stand Together's Brian WalshRichard ChalkeyMiriam Sapiro Bradley Singer of WME … POLITICO's Caitlin Oprysko, Madina Touré and Kadija Jalloh … Targeted Victory's John Hall … Finsbury Glover Hering's Tom NowlanTodd Van EttenRob Bluey ... USA Today's Annah Backstrom Aschbrenner ... Ted Newton Jesse Connolly … Brunswick Group's Patti Solis Doyle … ProPublica's Craig SilvermanIan Jefferies of the Association of American Railroads … Jenna Alsayegh of USTelecom … Bryer DavisDavid Wickenden of AARP … Jessica (Jensen) Ketner … Singaporean President Halimah Yacob … former Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam … former California Gov. Pete WilsonQueen Noor of Jordan (7-0)

Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike Zapler, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Allie Bice, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross.

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