Monday, August 16, 2021

📰This Data Shows the Real Rate of Economic Recovery📰

Good morning. The stock market quickly bounced back from its Covid crash...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. The stock market quickly bounced back from its Covid crash of March 2020, assisted in part by trillions in stimulus and help from central banks (which is still going on). With that kind of help, how can an investor determine what's really going on? By looking at other data than stock prices or GDP, which includes government spending as part of its calculation.

One trend worth watching is in freight trends. The Cass Freight Index (there's an index for everything) shows that goods shipped by road and rail in North America finally hit a pre-pandemic level in July. While a good metric for tracking the economic recovery, physical goods are becoming less useful in today's interconnected digital age. But it's a sign that the economy has room to grow, and is largely recovered outside some supply chain issues and a labor market mismatch.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 35,515.45 +0.04%
S&P 4,468.02 +0.16%
NASDAQ 14,822.90 +0.04%
*As of market close
Stocks edged higher into the weekend, with the S&P 500 and Dow setting record highs.
Oil declined 1.6 percent, closing at $68.02 per barrel.
Gold rose 1.6 percent, last going for $1,780 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies jumped higher, with Bitcoin at $46,498 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
The Best Winners Never Move in a Straight Line

In fact, no asset moves up or down in a straight line. Even a stock or sector in a hot uptrend can be hit with a wild downtrend. Traders astute enough to recognize a temporary setback rather than a cyclical change are likely able to fare well by buying a dip and obtaining the best possible profit.

Last week, Morgan Stanley (MS) warned on memory maker stocks, nothing that the pricing environment would be difficult going into next year.

» FULL STORY


Insider Trading Report: Cigna Corp (CI)
Donna Zarcone, a director at Cigna Corp (CI) recently picked up 1,000 shares. The buy increased her stake by nearly 4 percent, and came at a total cost of just under $211,000.

This is the first insider buy at the healthcare plan company in nearly a year, following a buy last September from the company CFO. Overall, insiders have been hefty sellers of shares, even as the price has continued to climb higher.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: PGE Corporation (PCG)
Shares of utility provider PG&E Corporation (PCG) have been trending down since last November. One trader sees the potential for a big spike upwards.

That's based on the January $14 calls. With 158 days until expiration, over 16,030 contracts traded against a prior open interest of 287, for a 56-fold rise in volume. The buyer of the calls paid about $0.25 to make the trade.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Productivity Trends Suggest Stocks Will Rise in Spite of Inflation

Many investors have pointed out to rising inflation as a concern, given how rising inflation led to poor market performance in the 1970s. But there are some other differences as well. According to analyst Ed Yardeni, the 1970s also saw a collapse in productivity, a factor that isn't occurring this time around.
Consumer Sentiment Drops to Pandemic-Era Low

The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index has dropped to 70.2 this month, the lowest reading since 2011. The measure suggests that rising Covid-variants are impacting consumer choices regarding dining out, attending events, and other activities. The index has dropped 13 percent from the prior month, its largest drop since the start of the pandemic.
China Growth Forecasts Slashed

Goldman Sachs (GS) analysts recently slashed GDP growth expectations for China to just 2.3 percent, less than half the 5.8 percent rise they initially expected. The culprit? The Delta variant of Covid, which is leading to another round of lockdowns there. Other analysts have similarly reduced growth expectations for the world's second-largest economy in recent weeks.
Self-Regulatory Audit System Failing

A rising number of state regulators are finding deficient audits at various institutions, profit and non-profit alike. That also includes accounting groups responsible for auditing other companies as well. This weak oversight is leading to potential dangers for investors or donors at companies, pension funds, and charities.
Disney+ Hits 116 Million Subscribers

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) topped earnings estimates in the most recent quarter, thanks largely to continued growth in streaming. Its Disney+ streaming services has now topped 116 million users, up more than 100 percent year-over-year and just 16 months into operation.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
EBAY 7.635%
AMD 3.531%
PFE  2.519%
REGN 2.514%
TSN 2.268%
BOTTOM
APA 4.842%
FANG 4.655%
HPQ 4.589%
OXY  3.945%
GPS 3.75%

Quote of the Day
The hot PPI/home price figures took some of the sheen off the Wed CPI-induced 'inflation has peaked party' and this spurred very modest profit taking in cyclical groups following two days of outperformance.
- Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, on why strong home and inflation data may have been at odds with a broader picture of inflation rates moderating in the months ahead.

Sponsored Content
No. 1 Renewable Energy Stock of 2021
See this map?

It shows the Smart Grid … part of America's push to bring renewable energy to the masses. Goldman Sachs says renewable energy will be a $16 trillion investment opportunity between now and 2030…

So the smart money is getting in NOW!

I've identified a leader in Smart Grid technology that's also a prime candidate to benefit from the current infrastructure push...

Meaning, it could soon become the No. 1 stock of 2021.

Click here for details about my biggest renewable energy opportunity of the year!


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