News : Big week for eviction ban — Not much of an August recess so far

Monday, August 16, 2021

Big week for eviction ban — Not much of an August recess so far — Washington’s new eviction problem

Aug 16, 2021

By Victoria Guida and Aubree Eliza Weaver

Presented by Consumer Data Information Association

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Quick fix

Big week for eviction ban — The Biden administration's new, more targeted moratorium on evictions is set to last until Oct. 3, but a federal appeals court is likely to rule on whether to block the policy by the end of the week, our Josh Gerstein and Katy O'Donnell report , though the dispute seems certain to make it to the Supreme Court.

"Landlords and two chapters of the National Association of Realtors asked the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals for 'immediate' action to prevent enforcement of the moratorium issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. … Lawyers for opponents of the policy said Justice Department attorneys had agreed to a schedule calling for briefs to be filed at the appeals court through Wednesday and a ruling from that court by Thursday."

Just another example of how it hasn't felt like much of an August recess so far. A slew of pressing issues are hanging over Washington this week, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi 's dilemma over how to push forward the bipartisan infrastructure bill while also keeping left wing lawmakers in her caucus happy as they push for progress on the $3.5 trillion budget resolution. The House won't return until Aug. 23, but a group of nine moderates is already threatening to withhold their votes from that resolution later this month, calling on Pelosi to bring the Senate infrastructure bill up for a vote as soon as it's ready.

That's not her only headache: Crypto-friendly House Democrats are plotting a long-shot bid to scale back digital currency tax rules tucked into President Joe Biden's infrastructure plan. Though it's not clear that any of those Democrats would actually vote against the package because of crypto (Rep. Darren Soto told your guest MM host he plans to vote yes on the bill), it could slow down the legislation as it did in the Senate.

Meanwhile, there's the debt limit suspension, which is now expired. The Democrats have decided not to include a debt ceiling increase in their budget resolution, which brings us back to a game of chicken over whether the U.S. will willingly choose to default on its loans. MM doesn't think it would come to that — enough lawmakers know what's at stake — but the question is who has to take the political blame for it.

Our budget whizzes Caitlin Emma and Jennifer Scholtes have noted that, under the single-party budget resolution approach, Democrats would likely have to set a new ceiling for how much debt the U.S. can hold, while a bipartisan move would allow the ceiling to simply be suspended, a solution that goes down a little easier politically.

A nerdy point, if you'll indulge us. This situation feels ironic because financial markets would really love some new Treasury bills (U.S. government debt that has a maturity of less than a year, issued by the government as an easy way to get quick cash). The Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repo facility is now taking in as much as $1 trillion daily. If you don't know what that means (you're not alone), basically this is the Fed's version of issuing very short-term debt. It's borrowing money from money market funds overnight and giving them Treasuries as collateral while also paying interest on the loans. It has multiple reasons for doing this, but one way to think about it is as a stand-in for other safe short-term assets like, say, the U.S. government borrowing more money.

HAPPY MONDAY — Ben White is off this week! Send me tips, tricks and memes at vguida@politico.com or @vtg2, and to Aubree Eliza Weaver at aweaver@politico.com and @AubreeEWeaver.

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Driving the day

All day: Consumer Bankers Association conference, including Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu

BEHNAM SET TO BECOME PERMANENT CFTC CHAIR — Bloomberg's Benjamin Bain and Robert Schmidt: "President Joe Biden plans to name Rostin Behnam to lead the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which oversees much of the $582 trillion global derivatives market including cryptocurrency trading, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

"The White House recently selected Behnam, who's been leading the agency on an interim basis since January, according to the people who weren't authorized to speak publicly. The timing of an announcement is still weeks away, the people said."

WASHINGTON'S NEW EVICTION PROBLEM: SUFFERING LANDLORDS — Our Katy O'Donnell: "Washington's pandemic response is battering the finances of independent landlords, most of whom haven't received federal rental aid designed to keep them whole during a nearly year-long eviction ban that has forced some property owners to house tenants for free.

"The distress is acute for so-called mom-and-pop landlords — those who own fewer than 10 properties, which typically have between one and four units. They supply about half the housing stock in the country, and they're more likely than corporate property managers to have lower-income tenants who've fallen behind on their rent as a result of Covid-19. About 30 percent have household incomes below $90,000 a year."

BIDEN MAKES RECORD INCREASE TO FOOD STAMP BENEFITS — Our Helena Bottemiller Evich: "The Biden administration on Monday plans to unveil a major permanent increase to the food stamp benefits that help 42 million Americans buy groceries — a record bump up for one of the country's largest safety net programs.

"The average monthly benefits for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program will be roughly 27 percent higher than they were before the pandemic, starting Oct. 1, according to an administration official. That comes out to an increase of about 40 cents per meal. The change comes right as millions of households were set to face a benefits cliff, as the current 15 percent pandemic plus-up that Congress authorized at the end of last year is set to expire Sept. 30."

U.S. ECONOMY LIKELY TO OUTGROW CHINA'S — WSJ's Bob Davis: "The U.S. and China are trading places in the economic growth race. U.S. gross domestic product rose 12.2 percent in the second quarter of this year from a year earlier, outpacing China's 7.9 percent gain. The American edge should continue for at least the next few quarters, many economists say. That would be the first sustained period since at least 1990 in which the U.S. economy grew faster than China's."

SMALL TRADERS PILE BACK INTO CRYPTO — WSJ's Caitlin McCabe: "Small investors are piling back into the cryptocurrency market, helping drive prices higher even as traders face uncertainty over proposed tax regulations in Washington. Cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, ether, dogecoin and other altcoins have rebounded in recent weeks from their midyear pullback, returning to levels not seen in months. Bitcoin on Friday traded at $47,544, its highest close since May 15, giving it a 64 percent gain for the year. Rival currency ether is up 344 percent for the year, while dogecoin — the joke cryptocurrency beloved by retail investors — traded at 28 cents, up more than 5,500 percent for the year."

Speaking of the crypto market — Bloomberg's Joanna Ossinger: "The total market value of cryptocurrencies rose above $2 trillion again as Bitcoin continued to climb and the likes of Cardano, XRP and Dogecoin advanced as well. Crypto's market value rose to $2.06 trillion on Saturday, according to CoinGecko, which tracks more than 8,800 coins. Bitcoin reached as high as $48,152, the highest level since May 16, as it showed staying power above its 200-day moving average."

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Fly Around

WEDDING BUSINESS IS BOOMING — NYT's Jeanna Smialek: "Weddings are roaring back after a pandemic-induced slump, leading to booked-up venues, a dearth of photographers and rising prices on catered dinners. As demand picks up, it's providing an additional jolt of spending to the U.S. economy.

"The race to the aisle is payback after a lost year of ceremonies. As lockdowns swept the nation, weddings slowed abruptly at the onset of the pandemic. Shane McMurray, founder of The Wedding Report, estimates that 1.3 million marriages took place in the United States last year, compared with the typical 2.1 million. Those were often 'micro-weddings,' according to industry insiders, with just a handful of guests, if any were present at all."

THE FUTURE OF U.S. FINANCIAL CRISIS RESCUES — Yale's Steven Kelly: "On August 2, the Board of Governors of the IMF approved the creation of approximately $650 billion of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs)—the IMF-created reserve currency—to boost global liquidity and support the ongoing pandemic response in emerging markets. This was the largest increase the U.S. Treasury secretary could approve without the issuance being subject to an approving vote in the U.S. Congress. … While members of Congress argue over the benefits and drawbacks of this issuance for U.S. foreign policy, the [Exchange Stabilization Fund] will be more than doubling in size. This may have big domestic implications for future financial rescues and bailouts if Congress doesn't act sooner to provide stronger guidelines on proper usage of the ESF."

LAGARDE NOT ATTENDING JACKSON HOLE — Reuters: "European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will not be attending the high-profile annual Jackson Hole conference of central bankers in late August, an ECB spokesperson said. The Sunday Telegraph reported earlier that Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey would also not be attending. The newspaper cited a BoE spokesperson as saying that organizers were 'focusing on a domestic invite list due to limited capacity.'"

YIELDS SET TO TIGHTEN GRIP ON EMERGING-MARKET CURRENCIES — Bloomberg's Netty Idayu Ismail and Karl Lester M Yap: "Slowing economic recovery amid a resurgent pandemic is leaving emerging-market currencies vulnerable to a selloff if Treasury yields rise again. While the influence of U.S. borrowing costs on developing-nation currencies has waned in recent months, it may return to prominence for riskier assets as the cushioning effects from China's growth rebound and low inflation weaken, according to money managers including Fidelity International and Credit Agricole CIB."

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