| Good morning. Here's some super exciting news: Morning Brew, the newsletter you just opened in order to procrastinate before work, hit 3 million subscribers yesterday. 3 million! That's, like, the entire population of the Earth in 10,000 BCE. Whether you've been reading since our Michigan days in 2015 or you signed up yesterday so your friend could score a mug, we're grateful you've decided to spend your mornings with us. The road to 4 million starts now. | | | |  | Nasdaq | 14,274.98 | | | | | S&P | 4,258.49 | | | | | Dow | 33,962.04 | | | | | Bitcoin | $30,740.28 | | | | | 10-Year | 1.201% | | |  | Peloton | $118.43 | | | | *Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 5:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean. | - Stocks: Investors went home and cued up a Phoebe Bridgers album after stocks posted their worst day in months. Fears of a global Covid resurgence sent airline and hospitality shares lower, while quarantine winners, like grocery brands and Peloton, gained.
- Biden speaks: In a speech on the state of the economy, President Biden said he agrees with Jerome Powell that higher inflation will be temporary. He also walked back his comment that Facebook was "killing people" by allowing the spread of Covid-19 vaccine misinformation.
| | | | If you're looking for the Covid-19 recession, you're 2006-era JoJo and too little, too late. The pandemic-induced recession lasted only two months, from February 2020 to April 2020, making it the shortest recession in US history. Who says? The National Bureau of Economic Research's (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee, the official judge of recession dates in the US and everyone's least favorite guy at the party. - Typically, recessions are defined by two consecutive quarters of declining GDP.
- But when US economic output plunged at a 31.4% annualized pace in Q2 2020 and the country lost a staggering 20+ million jobs, the committee didn't need to see anymore—in June 2020 it concluded that a recession definitely started in February.
But just like that, the recession ended. Why was it so short? Congress and the Fed offered unprecedented financial support for individuals and businesses, allowing them to weather the storm and leaving many Americans better off than when the pandemic began. US household wealth hit a record $136.9 trillion in Q1 2021. So what now? The US government is certainly acting like the recession is long gone. Most of the pandemic safety net programs it introduced last year are set to end within the next few months. - Extra unemployment benefits officially expire on September 6, though half of the states have already stopped providing them.
- The extra cash you've been saving may start to disappear as student loan payments, which had been suspended, could resume in October.
- The federal eviction moratorium ends on July 31.
Zoom out: The Covid-19 recession ended an economic boom that began in June 2009 and lasted 128 months, the longest US economic expansion on record. Let's start the clock again. | | | Blue Origin | The world's richest person, his brother, an 82-year-old aviation pioneer, and a Dutch teen walk into a rocket. No punchline here, just an actual preview of what's happening today. Jeff Bezos's space company, Blue Origin, will launch its first human test flight at 9am ET from the small desert town of Van Horn, Texas. The 60-foot-tall New Shepard spaceship is named after Alan Shepard, one of the astronauts who participated in the US' first human spaceflight program that was created in 1958. The capsule seats six people, has the largest windows in space flight history (2.4 feet wide and 3.6 feet tall), is fully autonomous, and is reusable for future missions. How to watch: The actual journey will only last about 11 minutes, but a historic space flight definitely beats reruns of House Hunters as background noise. Blue Origin will be streaming the launch on its website this morning. + The latest from Gossip Brew: While Virgin Galactic's Richard Branson might have beat Bezos to space by 10 days, he only reached an altitude of 53.5 miles. Today's flight is expected to reach 62 miles in altitude and pass the Kármán line, the invisible boundary to outer space. | | | While the stock market faces headwinds due to the resurgence of Covid, the IPO train keeps on rolling: The US IPO market could have its busiest week of the year with 19 deals on the roster. Looking beyond this week, here's the IPO/SPAC news you need to know. Robinhood: In an updated filing, the stock trading app said it wants to raise $2+ billion at a valuation of as much as $35 billion. Expected to start trading next week, it'll be the hottest IPO of the summer. Rent the Runway: The clothing rental company filed confidentially for an IPO after a bumpy pandemic year. In its latest funding round in May, Rent the Runway was valued at about $750 million, below its previous valuation of $1 billion, per Bloomberg. Universal Music Group: Billionaire investor Bill Ackman's SPAC scrapped its complex deal to buy a 10% stake in UMG, which is home to artists like Taylor Swift, after the SEC squashed the idea. No matter—Ackman will buy the stake with his hedge fund instead. Bowlero: The operator of 321 bowling centers in North America, 8x the number of its closest rival, filed to go public via SPAC at a $2.6 billion valuation. | | | | Investing in private market real estate can feel like a billionaire's club that's tough to get into. But Fundrise is changing the game. They've used the power of technology (and people) to cut out the middlemen, high fees, and other obstructions that have traditionally limited access to real estate investing. Offering reduced costs and fees—and increased transparency—Fundrise is making it easier than ever to add true diversification to your portfolio through premium private market real estate. With a minimum of just $500, you can join the community of 150k investors harnessing the power of real estate now. Diversify your portfolio the smart, simple, and easy way with Fundrise | | | dayakdaily | Stat: Authorities in Malaysia put 1,069 seized bitcoin mining rigs worth $1.26 million in a police parking lot and proceeded to crush them with a steamroller last week. Seems like an apt metaphor for the crypto market, which has lost nearly $100 billion in value in the last day. Quote: "Mummy, are you going to the optician?" It's being called the "Peppa Pig effect." American kids are speaking in Britishisms after binge-watching the popular English cartoon during the pandemic, reports the WSJ. That means calling the TV → telly, cookies → biscuits, and gas station → petrol station. Just wait until they find Mare of Easttown... Read: What is going on with Covid right now. (Will Hoenig) | | | VW | Can you name the car above? If not, don't sweat it—it won't be around much longer anyway. Volkswagen said it will stop selling its Passat model in the US next year as automakers pivot to SUV production. Whether it's going to heaven or hell, Passat will have plenty of company in the afterlife. Automakers have sent several US sedan models to the junkyard in recent years, including the Chevy Impala, Ford Focus, Dodge Dart, and Chrysler 200. Big picture: American drivers have increasingly shown a preference for cars that are fuel-efficient, bigger, and make them feel important. Bloomberg has called the death of the sedan "the biggest car trend of the decade." - In 2018, Ford said it would phase out its sedans in the US to "feed the healthy parts of our business, and deal decisively with the parts that destroy value," former Ford CEO Jim Hackett said at the time.
Looking ahead…VW and other automakers are rethinking their vehicle lineups as they prepare to roll out more electric models in coming years. | | - Canada will open its border to fully vaccinated US travelers on August 9.
- The US and its Western allies formally blamed China for the March hack on Microsoft Exchange software.
- Indiana University can mandate Covid-19 vaccination for its students, a federal judge said. It's the first ruling so far on the question of whether public universities can require vaccinations.
- Ben & Jerry's will stop selling ice cream in West Bank settlements and in East Jerusalem, saying it's "inconsistent with our values."
- The American Academy of Pediatrics recommended universal masking in schools this fall for kids ages 2 and up.
- Lil Nas X teased his new song in a video that spoofs the rapper's legal battle with Nike over his Satan shoes.
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