Monday, July 12, 2021

It’s Republican-vs.-Republican in Texas — FEC deadline approaching — Trump moves away from QAnon

Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Score is your guide to the year-round campaign cycle.
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By Stephanie Murray

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Quick Fix

— The TX-06 runoff is two weeks away, and Republican Susan Wright has an advantage on the airwaves against fellow Republican Jake Ellzey.

— DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney raised $498,000 in the second quarter, and a few other campaign fundraising hauls we learned over the weekend.

— Former President Donald Trump's political operation wants distance from QAnon, but followers of the conspiracy — and Trump himself — aren't making it easy.

Happy Monday. Email me at smurray@politico.com and follow me on Twitter at @stephanie_murr.

Email the rest of the POLITICO Campaigns team at sshepard@politico.com, zmontellaro@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @ZachMontellaro, @JamesArkin and @allymutnick.

Days until the TX-06 special election runoff: 15

Days until the OH-11 and OH-15 special election primaries: 22

Days until the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections and OH-11 and OH-15 special elections: 113

Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 484

Days until the 2024 election: 1,213

 

THE ROAD TO TOKYO 2020 – A TUESDAY CONVERSATION WITH FIRST VICE PRESIDENT OF THE IOC ANITA DEFRANTZ: The Tokyo Olympics kick off July 23, 15 months after being postponed. One problem … Japan's capital city is in a Covid state of emergency and has prohibited fans from attending. With financial pressure to push forward and potential punishment for any athletes involved in protests or demonstrations during the sporting event, these Olympics Games will be unlike any other. Join Global Translations author Ryan Heath for a POLITICO Live conversation with Anita DeFrantz, First Vice President, International Olympic Committee, on what's at stake in the Tokyo Olympics, as a global health crisis, sports and politics all come to a head. REGISTER HERE.

 
 


TopLine

EVERYTHING'S BIGGER IN TEXAS — There are two weeks left until a special election runoff in Texas, and Ellzey faces an uphill battle on the airwaves against fellow Republican Wright.

Wright and Ellzey finished at the top of the pack in a crowded May 1 special election to fill the seat of the late Rep. Ron Wright. Now, Wright's widow is the frontrunner to replace him, running with the backing of Trump. Wright's campaign released an internal poll in June that showed her leading Ellzey, 49 percent to 34 percent.

The fast-approaching July 27 will pit two Republicans against one another. Democrats were locked out of the race in May, an embarrassing showing in a district where support for Trump dipped from 2016 to 2020. The party also lost the chance to pad its slim House majority.

The conservative Club for Growth endorsed Wright and has spent $230,000 on TV ads in the months since the special election. Wright hasn't spent a dime on television ads in the runoff, according to AdImpact, although she's promoted several Facebook ads touting her Trump endorsement and calling for Dr. Anthony Fauci to be fired.

Meanwhile, Ellzey launched his first runoff ads on June 29 and has spent nearly $29,000 on TV. Wright's Trump endorsement scrambles the electoral calculus for Ellzey — and with many Democratic voters expected to sit out the Republican-vs.-Republican race, Ellzey is rushing to boost his conservative bonafides. The state lawmaker's ads are running on Fox News Channel, and he has also been spending on Facebook ads, including two posts touting his endorsement from Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas), and another declaring "Trump supporters love Jake Ellzey." The race has split the Texas congressional delegation — Rep. Lance Gooden (R-Texas) gave Wright a shoutout at CPAC over the weekend.

We'll get a peek inside Ellzey and Wright's campaign bank accounts on Thursday, when their pre-runoff filings are due to the FEC.

Down the Ballot

THE CASH DASH — A trio of campaign fundraising hauls came in over the weekend. These numbers cover the second quarter of the year, from April 1-June 30. We'll get a full picture of the campaign finance landscape on July 15, when filings are due to the FEC.

FIRST IN SCORE: New York: Maloney raised $498,000 and has $1.4 million in cash on hand.

GA-Sen: Sen. Raphael Warnock raised $7 million, POLITICO's James Arkin reported, and had $10.5 million in cash on hand.

Illinois: Republican Esther Joy King, who is running to replace retiring Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), raised $425,000. Her campaign did not provide a cash-on-hand figure.

Nevada: Democratic Rep. Susie Lee raised more than $600,000 and has more than $925,000 in cash on hand, The Nevada Independent's Jacob Solis reported. Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford raised more than $570,000 and has nearly $1.2 million in cash on hand, according to Solis.

EMPIRE STATE OF MIND — New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo's political future is in the hands of state Attorney General Tish James. James is investigating sexual misconduct allegations Cuomo, POLITICO New York's Anna Gronewold wrote, and it's not clear when the probe will wrap up or what it will say. As a result, New York politics are on ice. If the probe causes Cuomo to pass on running for another term, it would launch a crowded Democratic primary race to replace him, that could include James herself.

BACK IN SESSION — Texas lawmakers resumed their high-profile battle over election legislation over the weekend with hours of public hearings and late-night votes, the Texas Tribune's Alexa Ura and Cassandra Pollock wrote. Republican-backed election bills in the state House and Senate cleared key committee votes over the weekend and could get a vote by the full chamber this week.

The bills are similar to the legislation that sparked an end-of-session walkout by Democrats in May, but authors dropped "controversial provisions to restrict Sunday voting hours and to make it easier for judges to overturn elections." Still on the table is a proposal to ban drive-thru and 24-hour voting, among other provisions.

— Speaking of Texas, the state Republican Party selected Matt Rinaldi as chair over the weekend, the Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek reports. Rinaldi, a former state lawmaker, will replace former Rep. Allen West, who left his post as party chair to challenge GOP Gov. Greg Abbott to a primary.

ON THE AIRWAVES — OH-11 Democrat Nina Turner is going negative on her primary opponent Shontel Brown in a new TV ad. In the 30-second spot , Turner says "Shontel Brown and her out-of-state special interests are not telling the truth" and says Brown is running a "negative campaign." The race to replace now-HUD Secretary Marcia Fudge has attracted national players like Hillary Clinton, who endorsed Brown, and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) who endorsed Turner.

JUST PEACHY — Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp kicked off his campaign for a second term over the weekend, and he leaned into GOP issues like critical race theory, new voting restrictions and criticizing the Biden administration, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Bluestein reports. Kemp relied on Trump to beat Stacey Abrams in 2018, but he won't be able to do that this cycle. Kemp's relationship with the former president deteriorated in the wake of the 2020 election, although he partially repaired his reputation among Georgia Republicans.

Speaking of Kemp's campaign, his first TV ad of the cycle criticized Major League Baseball's decision to yank the All-Star game from Atlanta over new voting laws, and threw a punch at his likely Democratic opponent. "Stacey Abrams and the liberal mob forced the All-Star game to move," Kemp says in the ad. Kemp narrowly beat Abrams in 2018, and she's widely expected to seek a rematch.

GETTING IN — House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy will travel to New Jersey for a fundraiser to kick off Tom Kean Jr.'s congressional campaign, NJ Advance Media's Jonathan D. Salant reports. Kean is gearing up for a rematch against Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski , who narrowly beat Kean in 2020. It's not clear what Malinowski's district will look like once the map lines are redrawn.

THE 'BURBS — Democrats and Republicans are targeting the swingy suburbs ahead of the 2022 midterms. Suburban voters were key to President Joe Biden's win last year, The New York Times' Trip Gabriel wrote. Fifty-four percent of voters from the suburbs cast ballots for Biden, which was a significant increase over Hillary Clinton in 2016. But Republicans are trying to win back the suburbs and plan to attack Democrats on issues like "crime, tax increases, border security" and critical race theory, according to NRCC chair Tom Emmer.

ENDORSEMENT ALERT — North Carolina Democrat Cheri Beasley was endorsed for Senate by eight Democratic congresswomen and Alpha Kappa Alpha sorority members, POLITICO's James Arkin wrote. Beasley is running to replace retiring GOP Sen. Richard Burr , one of the most competitive seats on the midterm map. Beasley, a former chief justice of the state Supreme Court, is running in a Democratic primary against state Sen. Jeff Jackson and former state Sen. Erica Smith.

— The Alaska state Republican Party endorsed GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski's primary challenger Kelly Tshibaka. The state committee voted to back Tshibaka by a significant margin of 58-17, the Anchorage Daily News' Samantha Davenport reported. The party recently censured Murkowski for voting for impeachment earlier this year. Trump endorsed Tshibaka and has pledged to travel to Alaska and campaign against Murkowski.

— Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley endorsed New Jersey Republican Jack Ciattrelli for governor, NJ Advance Media's Brent Johnson reported. Ciattarelli is running to unseat Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy. Haley also attended a fundraiser for Ciattarelli, who beat two pro-Trump candidates in a Republican primary earlier this year.

GRASSLEY WATCH — Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) will decide this fall whether to seek another term, KYOU's Shelby Slaughter reported. Grassley said his decision would come between Labor Day and Nov. 1. The timeline is unusually late for Grassley, although his campaign staff is functioning as though he's running, The Associated Press' Tom Beaumont points out. Grassley made a reference to his age when asked about his political future: "If I announce I'm running, I'm planning on living to be 95. But I might not live that long," Grassley said.

BALLOT BATTLE — Biden will deliver a voting-rights speech in Philadelphia on Tuesday, the administration's latest push to fight Republican-backed state-level voting restrictions, NBC News' Mike Memoli reported. Biden has faced pressure from progressives on voting issues, especially as Texas Republicans attempt to pass new voting restrictions in a special legislative session. Biden tasked Vice President Kamala Harris with handling the administration's voting portfolio in June.

Democrats' hopes of passing a sweeping election reform bill have dimmed due to opposition from Republicans and a lack of enthusiasm from their own party for eliminating the filibuster. But House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn told POLITICO's Laura Barrón-López that Biden "should endorse" a filibuster carveout for legislation that applies to the Constitution, which would include the voting package.

Meanwhile, Democrats are hammering out the details of a new voting bill with a focus on the Supreme Court, The Associated Press' Brian Slodysko reports. Lawmakers are looking to reinstate parts of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, although the court dealt a blow to liberals earlier this month when it ruled on an Arizona voting law case. The bill Democrats are working on now "would develop a new formula for determining which states and local governments would be subject to a review process known as 'preclearance.'" The court blocked the practice in 2013, saying the formula was outdated, but said that lawmakers could propose a new formula.

— Nebraska Republicans are trying to put a new photo ID voting requirement on the ballot in their state, the Lincoln Journal Star's Don Walton wrote. A trio of Republican officials filed an initiative petition with the secretary of state's office to put the new voting restrictions on the ballot. The change would come in the form of a constitutional amendment. Leaders of the Massachusetts state Republican Party are also launching a voter ID ballot campaign.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 


Presidential Big Board

QANON QUANDARY — Trump's political operation is trying to keep the QAnon conspiracy at arms' length, but Trump's resistance to denouncing the baseless movement is making things difficult, POLITICO's Tina Nguyen and Meridith McGraw reported . After two QAnon believers received press credentials for Trump's rally in Sarasota, Florida, Trump's team is considering a new press verification policy to prevent a similar situation in the future.

Trump has met with QAnon-supporting figures in recent months, and the animating issue for QAnon believers has shifted since he lost last November. "A community that once revolved around Satanic ritual-based conspiracies now seems driven by the belief that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump by a vast conspiracy of shadowy elites," Tina and Meridith wrote.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY — "I'm not chic. I'm the least chic person in the world. Trust me." — Sanders to The New York Times.

 

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