🌡️ Why the Northwest heat wave worries scientists

Plus: EVs in 2050 and Biden's walk back | Monday, June 28, 2021

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Chevron   Axios Generate By Ben Geman and Andrew Freedman ·Jun 28, 2021 Welcome back! Today's Smart Brevity count is 1,157 words, 4.4 minutes. 🛢️ Data point of the day: 83%. That's U.S. oil output compared to its pre-COVID peak, per Reuters coverage of producers' restraint despite rising prices. 🎶 And at this moment in 1977, the great Marvin Gaye was #1 on the Billboard charts with today's intro tune...     1 big thing: Northwest "heat dome" signals global warming's march A public cooling shelter at the Oregon Convention Center. Photo: Maranie Staab/Bloomberg via Getty Images   The dangerous heat wave enveloping the Pacific Northwest is shattering weather records by such large margins that it is making even climate scientists uneasy, Andrew writes. Why it matters: Infrastructure, including heating and cooling, is built according to expectations of a "normal" climate. Human-caused climate change is quickly redefining that normal, while dramatically raising the likelihood of events that simply have no precedent. These risks include extreme heat events that can have unusually high impacts. That is exactly what is playing out now, with a region of the country largely devoid of air conditioning suffering through unheard-of temperatures over a prolonged stretch of time. In the past, such events have proved to be especially deadly, killing more than 70,000 in Europe in 2003, for example. Driving the news: The heat wave is shattering all-time temperature records in the U.S. and Canada. Portland, Oregon reached 113°F on Sunday, breaking the all-time record of 108°F set just the day before. Canada set a national all-time heat record on Monday. The buildings in these regions were not built for extreme heat, and the people living there are not accustomed to it. Officials have been scrambling to get people to use cooling shelters to escape the sweltering temperatures. Between the lines: "Because of the fact that climate change has made heatwaves like this much more likely and intense, we might very well reach the tipping point of what our infrastructure and other societal systems are able to deal with," Friederike Otto, of the University of Oxford, told Axios. How it works: The heat dome over the Northwest, which is a sprawling, intense area of high pressure aloft, causes air to sink, or compress. As it does so, the air temperatures increase. Winds blowing from land to sea are pushing temperatures higher. Studies have shown that severe heat events such as this one are now on average about 3°F to 5°F hotter than they would be without the many decades of greenhouse gas emissions. The big picture: However, climate scientists tell Axios this actually understates climate change's influence, because warming is also altering weather patterns in ways that make strong heat domes more common and prolonged. Daniel Swain, a climate researcher at UCLA, told Axios that the mean warming in the region is "more likely a floor than a ceiling," given climate change's potential effects on atmospheric circulation, soil moisture and other conditions that can amplify extreme heat. In addition, Swain said a focus on tipping points within the climate system alone may be misguided. He also warned of "systemic failures," citing the operation of the power grid as an example of systems that can fail in extreme weather. (See: Texas, winter 2021.) Read the whole story.     2. The global march of electric vehicles... Data: Wood Mackenzie; Chart: Axios Visuals Just-released projections from the consultancy Wood Mackenzie see battery electric vehicles growing to 56% of global sales by midcentury as internal combustion models see their share greatly erode, Ben writes. The big picture: It estimates there will be 875 million electric passenger vehicles and 70 million electric commercial vehicles on the roads by 2050. The latest analysis of passenger and commercial markets boosts its estimate of fully electric vehicles' share compared to even a February projection, which had it at 48%. What they're saying: "A growing list of countries and automakers are committing to carbon neutral targets and this has completely transformed the global road transport landscape," Wood Mackenzie analyst Ram Chandrasekaran said in a statement. Yes, but: Long-term outlooks are stuffed with uncertainties. And despite rapid growth, the International Energy Agency warns that EV adoption isn't on pace to meet Paris climate agreement goals. The IEA's recent analysis of what's needed to reach net-zero global emissions by 2050 would have EVs at 60% of passenger car sales by 2030(!). What we're watching: Growing — albeit nonbinding — pledges by governments and automakers to speed up the transformation of vehicle fleets. The latest: Reports emerged over the weekend that Volkswagen, the world's second-largest automaker, would stop making internal combustion vehicles in Europe by 2035.     3. ...and the intense race for battery materials Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios   At the very moment the U.S. is ramping up EV development manufacturers are running up against the weakest link in the supply chain — a shortage of battery materials, Axios' Joann Muller reports. Why it matters: The bottleneck puts the United States at a major disadvantage to China, which controls a huge amount of the world's battery minerals mining and processing. Without further action, the U.S. risks becoming as dependent on imported batteries as it was on foreign oil — or repeating mistakes of the past with solar panels or smartphones which are now made primarily overseas. "We are the leading innovators in the world. But the challenge that we face is keeping the production of those future innovations here in the United States," said Doug Campbell, CEO of battery maker Solid Power, at an industry roundtable hosted by Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm. Read the whole story.     A message from Chevron We believe the future of energy is lower carbon     At Chevron, we've already exceeded our 2023 upstream carbon intensity reduction targets, which were set on a time frame in line with the Paris Agreement stocktake. We're on track to achieve a 35% carbon intensity reduction by 2028 vs. 2016. Learn more.     4. Biden's infrastructure shift and more policy news The big policy news over the weekend was that President Biden walked back his implied threat to veto the bipartisan infrastructure plan unless Congress also approved the separate Democratic plan, Ben writes. Why it matters: While the bipartisan outline has clean energy provisions, the Democrats' planned "reconciliation" package is meant to carry a larger amount of spending and tax incentives. Where it stands: Senate backers of the bipartisan plan welcomed Biden's lengthy statement Saturday on his stance. But it's creating fresh concerns among climate activists seeking major new investments. Quick take: The political pathway for both plans was fraught and highly uncertain before Biden's weekend statement, and that remains the case today. * * * Environmental justice: The Environmental Protection Agency announced Friday it will provide $50 million to help low-income and communities of color impacted by pollution, climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic, Axios' Kierra Frazier reports. Why it matters: This move represents the Biden administration's first major investment in environmental justice — a key element of his climate policy. Go deeper Methane: The House voted Friday to reverse a Trump-era rule that thwarted EPA's power to directly regulate emissions of the potent greenhouse gas methane from the oil-and-gas sector, sending the measure to President Biden's desk for a signature. Read more     5. Climate change in the new Washington Global average temperature anomalies during 1981-1990 and 2011-2020, compared to the 1981-2010 average. Data: NASA; Graphic: Axios Visuals Check out the latest Axios Deep Dive on climate change. It focuses on the political change in Washington and its implications.     6. Catch up fast: International edition Finance: "Three think-tanks will unveil a proposal on Monday to avert a looming debt crisis and help heavily-indebted countries accelerate moves toward more sustainable growth and a low-carbon economy as they recover from the COVID-19 pandemic." (Reuters) Batteries: "China's Envision Group plans to spend as much as 2 billion euros ($2.4 billion) on a battery plant in northern France to power an affordable range of Renault SA electric vehicles." (Bloomberg) Legislation: "European Union countries on Monday gave the final seal of approval to a law to make the bloc's greenhouse gas emissions targets legally binding, as EU policymakers prepare a huge new package of policies to fight climate change." (Reuters)     A message from Chevron We believe the future of energy is lower carbon     At Chevron, we've already exceeded our 2023 upstream carbon intensity reduction targets, which were set on a time frame in line with the Paris Agreement stocktake. We're on track to achieve a 35% carbon intensity reduction by 2028 vs. 2016. Learn more.   Like this style and format? Request access to Axios HQ The tool and templates you need for more engaging team updates.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Suite 1300, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. Change your preferences or unsubscribe here.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Axios in your inbox.   Follow Axios on social media: