| | | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade, Tara Palmeri and Eugene Daniels | Presented by Facebook | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | BIDEN BACKS DOWN: The GOP rebellion over President JOE BIDEN'S Thursday veto threat of the bipartisan infrastructure bill seems to have been quelled. ICYMI, on Saturday the White House released a long and windy statement to mollify Republicans who supported the deal. Biden said he supported the deal "without reservation." On Sunday three of the five Republicans who negotiated it — MITT ROMNEY (Utah), BILL CASSIDY (La.) and ROB PORTMAN (Ohio) — made it clear that the president's walkback was good enough for them. So does that mean it will pass? Too early to tell. As the vague framework is turned into detailed legislative language, here are the next big land mines to watch in terms of GOP support: — CBO score. If the Congressional Budget Office says the deal isn't actually paid for, there are three options: deficit-finance the gap, go back to the drawing board and find additional pay-fors, or reduce the price tag of the package. All three options will create uncertainty about the bill's passage. — IRS enforcement. If conservatives want to launch a crusade against the bill, they have an easy target. It calls for spending $40 billion on increased enforcement, the type of proposal Republicans have long opposed. — Reconciliation. Despite Biden's statement, the enormous reconciliation bill that Democrats are drafting will hang over the process all summer and remain a handy excuse for any Republican who doesn't want to back the bipartisan bill. Sen. JERRY MORAN (R-Kan.), an initial backer of the bipartisan bill, has already indicated that he wants a commitment from Sens. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) and KYRSTEN SINEMA (D-Ariz.) not to support the reconciliation bill. That is as much a moving of the goal posts as Biden's veto threat. SANDERS VS. MANCHIN: On Sunday Manchin laid down his first marker on what he would accept in terms of the size of the reconciliation bill. "I'm willing to meet everybody halfway," he told Jonathan Karl on ABC's "This Week." "If Republicans don't want to make adjustments to a tax code which I think is weighted and unfair, then I'm willing to go reconciliation. That's how you're able to do it. "But if they think in reconciliation I'm going to throw caution to the wind and go to $5 trillion or $6 trillion when we can only afford $1 trillion or $1.5 trillion or maybe $2 trillion and what we can pay for, then I can't be there." A little later, Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) tweeted, "Let me be clear: There will not be a bipartisan infrastructure deal without a reconciliation bill that substantially improves the lives of working families and combats the existential threat of climate change. No reconciliation bill, no deal. We need transformative change NOW." The good news for Democrats is that Manchin is now clearly committed to a reconciliation bill. The bad news is that his initial offer is well below what both Sanders and the White House have proposed. Here are the rough reconciliation bill toplines for all three key players. (The numbers assume passage of the bipartisan infrastructure bill — otherwise they could all be a trillion dollars higher.) — Sanders: $5 trillion — Biden: $3 trillion — Manchin: $2 trillion The task for Biden (and Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER) is to find the magic number that holds Sanders and Manchin together. Lots of bumps in the road (sorry!) coming, but it sure seems like a $1 trillion bipartisan bill and a $3 trillion Dems-only reconciliation bill is where things are headed. As usual Manchin has the upper hand in these talks. It's a lot more credible to withhold support for a package that a senator considers too costly than it is to withhold a vote from a package that a senator considers too small. Would Sanders actually refuse to support a $2-3 trillion reconciliation bill? We doubt it. More from Sarah Ferris and Caitlin Emma, who break down the dynamics in the House: "Dems prepare for messy budget fight that could derail Biden's infrastructure deal" Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri. | | A message from Facebook: The internet has changed a lot since 1996 - internet regulations should too
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– Reforming Section 230 | | | JUST POSTED: New York mag has an excerpt from MICHAEL WOLFF'S latest book about DONALD TRUMP, and we got a sneak peak over the weekend. One of us previously panned Wolff's last book in a review for WaPo, but we can't deny that these releases are big events. You will be talking about Wolff's scoops, shaking your head at the Trump anecdotes and raising an eyebrow about the weird sourcing. Whatever your view of his previous work, you'll want to check out this account of Trump on Jan. 6. WILL BEZOS COME OUT AND PLAY? — Washington is socializing again, but what about JEFF BEZOS? After all, why buy a $23 million home in Kalorama ($40 million after renovations, according to Washingtonian) if you're not going to throw parties … regularly? The last time the Amazon chief/WaPo owner had one was a few months before Covid-19 hit, an after-party to the 2020 Alfalfa Club dinner that drew the likes of IVANKA TRUMP, Romney, BEN STILLER and BILL GATES. But lately, his neighbors report that the iron-rod gate in front of his courtyard has been papered over to conceal arrivals — not too inviting. This may mean that there's been some sort of activity at the seemingly desolate home. Either way, Washington may have to wait for Bezos to return from outer space for a true blowout bash. He takes off July 20, and alcohol doesn't exactly help with training for liftoff. BIDEN'S BETTER HALF TO THE OLYMPICS? — The Biden administration is drafting plans to send first lady JILL BIDEN to lead a presidential delegation to the Tokyo Olympics next month in place of the president. MICHAEL LAROSA, Jill Biden's press secretary, said the administration is "assessing" what a FLOTUS-led delegation could look like but stressed that nothing has been finalized. There's precedent for a first lady attending the Olympics in place of the president: MICHELLE OBAMA led the U.S. delegation to London in 2012. | | | |   | | | BIDEN'S MONDAY: — 9:50 a.m.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief. — 4 p.m.: The president will welcome Israeli President REUVEN RIVLIN to the White House. Press secretary JEN PSAKI will brief at 12:30 p.m. KAMALA HARRIS' MONDAY: The VP will leave Los Angeles for D.C. at 4:30 p.m. Eastern time. THE HOUSE will meet at noon, with votes postponed until 6:30 p.m. THE SENATE will meet at 9 a.m. in a pro forma session. | | | | SUBSCRIBE TO WEST WING PLAYBOOK: Add West Wing Playbook to keep up with the power players, latest policy developments and intriguing whispers percolating inside the West Wing and across the highest levels of the Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | | 
PHOTO OF THE DAY: A man rests in a cooling center at the Oregon Convention Center on Sunday, June 27, in Portland, Ore., as record-breaking temperatures lingered over the Northwest this weekend. | Nathan Howard/Getty Images | AMERICA AND THE WORLD ABOUT LAST NIGHT — "U.S. Carries Out Airstrikes in Iraq and Syria," NYT: "The United States carried out three airstrikes early Monday morning in Iraq and Syria against weapons storage facilities used by Iranian-backed militias that in recent weeks have conducted armed drone strikes against locations where the American military is, the Pentagon said on Sunday. … [Pentagon spokesperson JOHN] KIRBY said the facilities struck were used by Iranian-backed militias, including Kata'ib Hezbollah and Kata'ib Sayyid al-Shuhada, to carry out drone strikes against places where Americans were located." BUT DEMOCRATS AREN'T HAPPY … The airstrike isn't great political timing for Biden: It comes just days after the House repealed the outdated AUMF approved for the Iraq War (the Senate is set to follow suit later this year). That move is meant to ensure Congress recoups its authority over matters of war, an effort that's been years in the making. In that regard, Biden's airstrike could be seen as thumbing his nose at Congress — again. As congressional reporter Andrew Desiderio notes, the president has been citing his Article II self-defense authority as the legal rationale for this and a previous strike against similar entities, studiously avoiding the decades-old AUMFs. "I'm just as worried about the expansion of Article II authority interpretation as I am about the expansion of existing AUMF interpretation," Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) told Andrew on Sunday night. Democrats inherently trust this president on matters of national security, Andrew notes. But the yearslong fighting between American troops and Iranian proxies in the region is starting to look more like a "low-scale war," Murphy told him. The senator said it would be in Biden's interest to ask Congress for a new authorization if he believes the U.S. will need to keep hitting these Iran-backed groups. In the meantime, Democrats are already demanding classified briefings on the airstrikes, which weren't easy to come by the last time around. Sen. TIM KAINE (D-Va.), who has long pushed to rein in presidential war powers, told us that he's demanding a briefing "without delay." Kaine, it's worth remembering, is the lead Democratic sponsor of the Senate's effort to repeal the 1991 and 2002 AUMFs, which will get a vote in the Foreign Relations Committee next month. Even Speaker NANCY PELOSI's statement applauding Biden's move as "targeted and proportional" seems to include a warning that he better start talking to Congress stat: "Congress looks forward to receiving and reviewing the formal notification of this operation under the War Powers Act and to receiving additional briefings from the Administration," she said. CONGRESS THE WEEK AHEAD — It's not often that this happens, but the Senate is out this week while the House is working. The main events in the lower chamber include: — A vote on House Democrats' five-year, $715 billion surface transportation bill, which has flown under the radar lately with all the focus on the bipartisan Senate infrastructure talks. More than 230 amendments have been filed to the legislation with the Rules Committee, which will work on the package before it heads to the floor later this week. This should give us an early indication of how much bipartisan support an infrastructure proposal — highways, rails, roads, bridges — can actually muster in this polarized Washington. — A vote authorizing a select committee to probe Jan. 6. (And none too soon, as we're a bit sick of everyone speculating about it!) THE WHITE HOUSE TEFLON BIDEN — "'Spray and Pray': Republicans ramp up attacks on Biden on… everything," by Christopher Cadelago and Eugene Daniels: "Over the last three months, Republicans and affiliated groups and committees have spent nearly $2.5 million trying to paint Biden and his priorities in a negative light. That's more than three times what they've spent on Facebook ads targeting other leading Democrats — from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), House Speaker NANCY PELOSI (D-Calif.), Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D-N.Y.) and former President BARACK OBAMA — and issues like socialism, fake news, and 'defund the police' combined. … "POLITICO opted to review the last three months of data, after Facebook lifted the ban on political ads on its U.S. platform. But there has not been a consistent theme to the anti-Biden spots. The attack lines getting pushed most on the right go after Biden's massive infrastructure push, his call for raising taxes, dark money groups that support his agenda, his position on guns and the rise of gun violence in U.S. cities, according to Bully Pulpit's analysis." | | A message from Facebook: Why Facebook supports updated internet regulations
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See how we're taking action on key issues and why we support updated internet regulations. | | | POLICY CORNER CHOOSE YOUR NEWS — The NYT and WSJ both published stories Sunday focused on Missouri that explored whether cutting federal unemployment benefits is helping employers fill vacancies. And … they reached opposite conclusions. — NYT's Patricia Cohen in Maryland Heights, Mo.: "Where Jobless Benefits Were Cut, Jobs Are Still Hard to Fill": "[I]n the St. Louis metropolitan area … [w]ork-force development officials said they had seen virtually no uptick in applicants since the governor's announcement, which ended a $300 weekly supplement to other benefits. And the online job site Indeed found that in states that have abandoned the federal benefits, clicks on job postings were below the national average. … "Of course, it's early. But conversations with employers who are hunting for workers and people who are hunting for jobs in the St. Louis area revealed stark differences in expectations and assumptions about what a day's work is worth. … [T]he squeeze has given many job seekers the confidence that they can push for higher wages or wait until employers come around." — WSJ's Eric Morath and Joe Barrett: "Americans Are Leaving Unemployment Rolls More Quickly in States Cutting Off Benefits": "The number of workers paid benefits through regular state programs fell 13.8% by the week ended June 12 from mid-May—when many governors announced changes—in states saying that benefits would end in June, according to an analysis by Jefferies LLC economists. "That compares with a 10% decline in states ending benefits in July, and a 5.7% decrease in states ending benefits in September. … Some businesses in Missouri are already noticing a difference since the policy shift." POLITICS ROUNDUP EYES ON 2024 — "The 2024 Iowa caucus campaign has already begun," by Alex Isenstadt: "Only months after Trump's election defeat, Republicans are laying the groundwork for the all-important, first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses. Potential candidates are hopscotching across the state to fundraise, campaign for midterm hopefuls and appear at traditional party dinners that mark the start of caucus season. "And behind the scenes, Republicans are making overtures to influential activists, meeting with party leaders and hiring operatives with deep experience in Iowa, which is still expected to be the first 2024 contest for Republicans — even though Democrats are grappling with whether to change their nominating calendar. The burst of early activity — which is set to accelerate over the summer months — illustrates how Republicans are maneuvering with an eye toward succeeding Trump." MEANWHILE … IT'S DESANTIS V. TRUMP — "DeSantis' big goal: Don't enrage Trump," by Matt Dixon in Tallahassee: "Trump remains the leader of the Republican Party, commanding loyalty from members and remaining active in congressional and statewide races as he weighs a 2024 comeback. But at 42, [Florida Gov. RON] DESANTIS represents a young, fresh face who presses similar conservative policies but with arguably more discipline than the former president. "DeSantis has even started getting help from well-known Trumpworld figures, including former White House chief of staff MARK MEADOWS, who joined the governor on a west coast fundraising swing that included stops in Las Vegas and Southern California. But the biggest question remains whether DeSantis will outshine the former president, and if that will in turn provoke Trump." TRUMP CARDS THE TRUMP ORG SQUEEZE — "Trump Organization attorneys given Monday deadline to persuade prosecutors not to file charges against it," by WaPo's Shayna Jacobs, Josh Dawsey and David Fahrenthold: "That deadline is a strong signal that Manhattan District Attorney CYRUS R. VANCE JR. (D) and New York Attorney General LETITIA JAMES (D) — now working together, after each has spent more than two years investigating Trump's business — are considering criminal charges against the company as an entity. Earlier this year, Vance convened a grand jury in Manhattan to consider indictments in the investigation. No entity or individual has been charged in the investigations thus far, and it remains possible that no charges will be filed." BEYOND THE BELTWAY SURFSIDE BUILDING COLLAPSE LATEST — "Possible Failure Point Emerges in Miami Building Collapse," by NYT's James Glanz, Anjali Singhvi and Mike Baker … "Surfside official was sent disturbing report. He told board condo was 'in good shape,'" by Miami Herald's Aaron Leibowitz, Mary Ellen Klas and Sarah Blaskey … "Florida condo building collapse death toll rises to 9, dozens still missing," by NBC's Doha Madani … "Families of the missing visit site of Florida condo collapse," by AP's Terry Spencer and Russ Bynum … "What We Know About The Victims Of The Champlain Towers Collapse," by NPR's Dustin Jones | | | | SUBSCRIBE TO "THE RECAST" TODAY: Power is shifting in Washington and in communities across the country. More people are demanding a seat at the table, insisting that politics is personal and not all policy is equitable. The Recast is a twice-weekly newsletter that explores the changing power dynamics in Washington and breaks down how race and identity are recasting politics and policy in America. Get fresh insights, scoops and dispatches on this crucial intersection from across the country and hear critical new voices that challenge business as usual. Don't miss out, SUBSCRIBE . Thank you to our sponsor, Intel. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | MAYOR TOASTS RETURN OF PARTY SCENE: Nightlife met culture Saturday night on the rooftop of the Kennedy Center, where D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser attended the launch of the HEIST nightclub pop-up series. The temporary nightclub on the roof of the famed arts center was conceived by Vinoda Basnayake, a lobbyist behind many of the other nightlife venues in town like Castas Rum Bar and Morris American Bar. Also spotted: Adrian Fenty, former NFL player Dhani Jones and Jason Wright. The party will take place every Saturday night for the next eight weeks. BRUNCH DIPLOMACY: A brunch at the home of socialite and philanthropist Adrienne Arsht on Sunday felt like a U.N. conclave, except in a garden with a soft serve ice cream machine. There were British Ambassador Karen Pierce, Iraqi Ambassador Fareed Yasseen, Spanish Ambassador Santiago Cabanas, Swiss Ambassador Jacques Pitteloud, German Ambassador Emily Haber, Norwegian Ambassador Anniken Krutnes, Jordanian Ambassador Dina Kawar, Colombian Ambassador Francisco Santos and chief Venezuelan envoy Carlos Vecchio. Among those without an excellency in front of their name: Sharon Rockefeller, Andrea Mitchell, Rita Braver and Bob Barnett, Jonathan Capehart, Capricia Marshall, Michael LaRosa, Anita McBride, Lt. Gen. Doug Lute, NIH Director Francis Collins, Luke Frazier, Robert Pullen, IMF head Kristalina Georgieva and Paige Ennis. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Keri Ann Hayes will join Husch Blackwell Strategies to lead a new PAC and campaign resources services practice. She previously has been a longtime political aide to Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.). TRANSITIONS — Jordan Monaghan is now press secretary for North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper. He previously was a principal at Precision Strategies and is a Sara Gideon alum. … Wade Giltz is now a campaign manager with Calvert Street Group. He previously was legislative correspondent for Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.). WEEKEND WEDDING — TRUMP ALUMNI: Austin Cantrell, founder of Cantrell Communications and a former Trump White House assistant press secretary, and Sage Norberg, a public school elementary special education teacher, got married Saturday in Belfast, Maine. The couple, who now live in South Florida, met on a flight from BWI over three years ago. They were married by their former D.C. roommate before 30 of their closest family and friends. Pic … Another pic SPOTTED: Trump at the wedding of Trump Org's Ann Lauer and former pro Canadian football player Ross Scheuerman. The wedding was conveniently located at Trump's Bedminster golf course, where he spends his summer in New Jersey. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Marc Kasowitz ... Elon Musk (5-0) … former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta ... former Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.) ... former Reps. Jane Harman (D-Calif.), Donna Edwards (D-Md.) and Jim Kolbe (R-Ariz.) ... Richard Walters ... NYT's David Kirkpatrick ... Laura Tyson ... Ziad Ojakli … Bill Greener III ... Jesse Holland ... Scott Waldman ... Kurt Eichenwald (6-0) ... Erin McPike … Carolyn Coda of Invariant ... Shari Dexter ... Brunswick Group's Stephanie Benedict ... Lara Kline ... Comcast's Brian Roberts … Deanna Williams … Kenneth DeGraff … Moses Marx … Jason Roe … Steve Johnson of American Airlines … Bloomberg's Anna Edgerton … Mike Lurie … Paul Morrell … Pete Nonis … Rob Tappan … Paul Bonicelli … Elizabeth Hagedorn … Allison Aprahamian … CNN's Yaffa Fredrick … Megan Bloomgren … Al Eisele … Mike Basch … Quinn McCord … AP's Brendan Farrington … Dusky Terry ... Meagan Mahaffey … David Olsen ... Mark Helprin … Eli Reyes … Kristen Ellingboe of Alliance for Gun Responsibility … Al Briganti … Brian Jodice … Coddy Johnson … Scott Tilley … Bill Hulse of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Center for Capital Markets Competitiveness … Tim Rodriguez of the Senate Judiciary Committee … Ashley Marquis of Jefferson Strategies Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike Zapler, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Allie Bice, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross. | | | | Sponsored Survey WE VALUE YOUR OPINION: Please take a 1-minute survey about one of our advertising partners. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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