Monday, June 7, 2021

Biden’s trip abroad: A show of force, then a showdown with Putin

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DRIVING THE DAY

BIDEN ABROAD: We interrupt infrastructure summer to bring you two weeks of foreign policy-focused events.

This afternoon, JENS STOLTENBERG, NATO's secretary-general, will drop by the Oval Office. National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN will brief reporters at 12:30 p.m. today. On Wednesday, President JOE BIDEN will depart for the U.K. on his first overseas trip: He'll meet with PM BORIS JOHNSON on Thursday and then attend the three-day G-7 meeting over the weekend in Cornwall, the craggy stub of a peninsula in the southwest of England. On Sunday he'll also meet the queen and then leave for Brussels, where he'll attend the NATO Summit and the U.S.-EU Summit.

After this flurry of meetings meant to shore up the western alliance, on June 16 Biden will be in Geneva for a one-on-one with Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN, which is the most controversial part of the trip.

The decision whether to meet with Putin divided top Biden foreign policy advisers and has drawn criticism from Republicans (yes, that's a little rich). The argument that won out among Biden officials is that paying Putin a modicum of attention doesn't really give much away and might forestall problems down the line because Putin, in this view, is more likely to act out against U.S. interests when he's ignored by the American president. (Over dinner Sunday night Ryan explained this theory to his mother, who noted, "It sounds like the way you treat a spoiled child." Pretty much!)

NAHAL TOOSI, POLITICO's foreign affairs correspondent, emails: "President Biden will be among friends for most of this upcoming trip, and that's by design. The idea is for him to consult with allies before meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Geneva, in a show of diplomatic force. We're being told not to expect too many deliverables, and Biden, in a column over the weekend, cast the trip as primarily a pep rally for democracies in the face of a rising China and an-impossible-to-ignore Russia.

"There will be visible relief from many of the countries gathered at the initial summits simply because it's Biden and not DONALD TRUMP showing up. That alone is enough to put a spring in many U.S. allies' steps. But I don't think Putin will be particularly cowed by any of it. The Russian is an old hand at these things, too. One other thing to watch: Tensions are on the rise again in Israel, and, if there's violence once more, it could cast a cloud over Biden's trip." Toosi also has an interesting read up this morning on what she's calling "the never-ending, ever-frustrating hunt for the 'Biden doctrine.'"

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NYT's Steven Erlanger with the view from Europe: "Four years ago, European leaders were traumatized by President Donald J. Trump, who cheered Brexit and eviscerated NATO, declaring the alliance 'obsolete,' calling member countries deadbeats and at first refusing to explicitly endorse NATO's bedrock mutual defense principle.

"As they prepare to welcome President Biden, the simple fact that he regards Europe as an ally and NATO as a vital element of Western security is almost a revelation. Yet the wrenching experience of the last presidential administration has left scars that some experts say will not soon heal."

MEANWHILE, HARRIS HEADS TO GUATEMALA — While Biden preps for his first foreign trip as president, VP KAMALA HARRIS is already into day one of hers. The veep landed in Guatemala on Sunday after having to switch planes because of a landing gear issue. Today, Harris will have a bilateral meeting with the president of Guatemala and local leaders and entrepreneurs.

A senior administration official said anti-smuggling and trafficking actions will be announced today, though there are no plans to unveil an additional aid package during the trip. Aside from the task at hand, it's also a chance for the administration to reset what Harris' role on immigration policy actually is. For months Republicans have been inaccurately tagging her as the "border czar."

ICYMI, Eugene and Sabrina Rodríguez wrote about what Harris faces as she takes on the root causes of migration.

Good Monday morning, which brings another sign of the return to normalcy: The White House briefing room is going to full capacity. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri.

WELCOME ABOARD! Raghu Manavalan has joined POLITICO to host and produce our Playbook Daily Briefing podcast. He most recently was senior producer on Adam McKay's "Death at the Wing" podcast. Listen and subscribe here

 

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BIDEN'S MONDAY:

— 9:50 a.m.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief.

— 4:30 p.m.: Biden will host Stoltenberg at the White House.

Press secretary JEN PSAKI will brief with Sullivan at 12:30 p.m.

HARRIS' MONDAY:

— 9:35 a.m. CST: The VP will participate in a bilateral meeting with Guatemalan President ALEJANDRO GIAMMATTEI at the Palacio Nacional de la Cultura in Guatemala City.

— 10:45 a.m.: Harris will take an official photo with Giammattei.

— 11:35 a.m.: Harris and Giammattei will hold a press conference.

— 1:45 p.m.: The VP will participate in a roundtable on migration with Guatemalan community and civil society leaders.

— 3:25 p.m.: Harris will participate in an intergenerational innovators and entrepreneurs event.

— 7:50 p.m.: The VP will depart Guatemala en route to Mexico City, Mexico, where she is scheduled to arrive at 11:05 p.m. CDT.

THE WEEK AHEAD:

— Wednesday: Biden and first lady JILL BIDEN will travel to the United Kingdom.

— Thursday: The president will meet with Johnson.

— Friday-Sunday: Biden will attend the G-7 Summit in Cornwall.

THE SENATE will meet at 3 p.m., with a vote to invoke cloture on JULIEN NEALS of New Jersey to be U.S. district judge for the District of New Jersey at 5:30 p.m. This is the chamber's first floor vote on a Biden judicial nominee. More are expected in the June work period.

THE HOUSE is out. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN will be on the Hill, testifying before the Foreign Affairs Committee at 10 a.m. and an Appropriations subcommittee at 2:30 p.m.

FLAGGING: The Senate Rules and Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs committees this week will release their report on the security breakdown on Jan. 6. It could come as early as today.

 

DON'T MISS THE MILKEN INSTITUTE FUTURE OF HEALTH SUMMIT: POLITICO will feature a special edition of our Future Pulse newsletter at the 2021 Milken Institute Future of Health Summit. The newsletter takes readers inside one of the most influential gatherings of global health industry leaders and innovators who are turning lessons learned from the past year into a healthier, more resilient and more equitable future. Covid-19 threatened our health and well-being, while simultaneously leading to extraordinary coordination to improve pandemic preparedness, disease prevention, diversity in clinical trials, mental health resources, food access and more. SUBSCRIBE TODAY to receive exclusive coverage from June 22-23.

 
 
PLAYBOOK READS

Vice President Kamala Harris and Guatemala's Minister of Foreign Affairs Pedro Brolo

PHOTO OF THE DAY: VP Kamala Harris and Guatemalan Minister of Foreign Affairs Pedro Brolo wave upon her arrival in Guatemala City on Sunday. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo

CONGRESS

AGENDA PROBLEMS — The Senate is back this week and entering a critical month for the Biden agenda. Two stories you should read to get caught up on the challenges facing the president and Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER in the coming weeks:

"Time ticking away, Democrats face wrenching test on agenda," AP's Lisa Mascaro with the curtain raiser: "Six months into the party's hold on Washington … there is a gloomy uncertainty over their ability to make gains on campaign promises … Talks over an infrastructure package are teetering, though Biden is set to confer again Monday with the lead GOP negotiator, and an ambitious elections overhaul bill is essentially dead now that Sen. JOE MANCHIN, D-W.Va., announced his opposition Sunday …

"The summer work period is traditionally among the busiest for Congress, but Democrats are growing wary because time is running out for Biden to negotiate a sweeping infrastructure package and other priorities are piling up undone. The days ahead are often seen as a last chance at legislating before the August recess and the start of campaigns for next year's elections."

"Schumer, in setting the agenda, is challenging senators to prepare to make tough choices. But he is also facing a test of his own ability to lead the big-tent party through a volatile period of shifting priorities and tactics in the aftermath of the Trump era and the Capitol insurrection."

— And: "Biden's Agenda Takes On Steep GOP Resistance in Senate," by WSJ's Lindsay Wise: "Many of President Biden's priorities are in danger of stalling as the Senate returns on Monday, with measures on voting, infrastructure and other issues facing firm Republican resistance and opposition from a handful of centrist Democrats. …

"The Senate will begin this week by putting the finishing touches on a bipartisan package aimed at helping give the U.S. a competitive edge over China in science and technology, after last-minute disputes forced a delay in the final vote. The agenda then gets trickier: Next on the chamber's to-do list, according to Mr. Schumer, is the voting legislation and gun control, as well as bills that would ban discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation or gender identity and aim to end pay disparities between men and women."

POLITICS CORNER

GOOD OMEN FOR THE GOP — "GOP Sweeps in Texas Races Signal Growing Hispanic Support for the Party," National Review: "Republicans swept key races for mayor in Texas on Saturday, setting back Democratic hopes that the state's urban areas will deliver statewide majorities for them in the future. Most shocking: In McAllen, Texas, a border city of 150,000 people of which 85 percent are Hispanic, Republicans elected their first mayor ever."

THE NEW LEFT — "Once a Bastion of Free Speech, the A.C.L.U. Faces an Identity Crisis," by NYT's Michael Powell: "Its national and state staff members debate, often hotly, whether defense of speech conflicts with advocacy for a growing number of progressive causes, including voting rights, reparations, transgender rights and defunding the police.

"Those debates mirror those of the larger culture, where a belief in the centrality of free speech to American democracy contends with ever more forceful progressive arguments that hate speech is a form of psychological and even physical violence. These conflicts are unsettling to many of the crusading lawyers who helped build the A.C.L.U."

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

BEN SMITH'S NYT COLUMN: "Anthony Weiner's Not Coming Back. But He Has Nowhere to Go": "The barista at the third-floor cafe didn't even recognize him. 'I'd be really good as a campaign manager,' he said, but of course no politician would be caught dead even speaking to him. He said he had given some informal advice to mayoral campaigns, though, 'I don't talk about which ones, because it would hurt them.' They won't even take his money. …

"Mr. Weiner has spent most of the last year running a Brooklyn company called IceStone, which makes environmentally sustainable countertops. He put in place a policy of offering job interviews to formerly incarcerated people. He's now in the process of stepping down as chief executive, he said, to try to turn the company into a 'worker-run cooperative.' He and [HUMA] ABEDIN, who still works for [ HILLARY] CLINTON, are finalizing their divorce, but they live down the hall from each other in the same apartment building. Mr. Weiner is in a 12-step program for sex addiction, and one of its conditions is that he not talk about it. His life, he said, largely revolves around their 9-year-old son."

THE CRISIS THAT WASN'T — "States rebound from bleak forecasts to pass record budgets," by AP's David Lieb: "Money is pouring into schools, social programs and infrastructure. At the same time, many states are socking away billions of dollars in savings."

 

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PANDEMIC

THE LONG ROAD AHEAD — "Vaccination rates fall off, imperiling Biden's July Fourth goal," by WaPo's Dan Diamond, Dan Keating and Chris Moody: "Plummeting vaccination rates have turned what officials hoped would be the 'last mile' of the coronavirus immunization campaign into a marathon … The United States is averaging fewer than 1 million shots per day, a decline of more than two-thirds from the peak of 3.4 million in April …

"The slowdown is national — with every state down at least two-thirds from its peak — and particularly felt across the South and Midwest. … Recognizing the challenge — and the risk of missing the goal — Biden officials have mobilized thousands of organizations and volunteers."

DISPARITY WATCH — "Black Americans lag in Biden's vaccine equity push," by Adam Cancryn: "Fewer than a quarter of Black Americans had received their first Covid-19 shot as of June 3 … The trend line worries health officials and experts who say the immunization drive is running into a particularly complex web of distrust, outreach challenges and stubborn barriers to access. … The White House has intensified the equity push in the past month in particular."

POLICY CORNER

ALL OVER BUT THE YELLEN — "Yellen Won a Global Tax Deal. Now Comes the Hard Part," by NYT's Alan Rappeport: "[W]ith a narrowly divided Congress and resistance from Republicans and business groups mounting, closing the deal at home may be an even bigger challenge. … Persuading members of the Group of 7 advanced economies to agree on Saturday to a global minimum tax of at least 15 percent was intended to help the Biden administration win support for its U.S. tax increases. …

"In an interview on Sunday, [Treasury Secretary JANET] YELLEN acknowledged the legislative challenge ahead and defended the Biden administration's plans to raise taxes on corporations. She stood behind Mr. Biden's proposal to raise the corporate tax rate in the United States to 28 percent from 21 percent. 'We think it's a fair way to collect revenues,' Ms. Yellen said on her flight back to the United States from London after attending two days of meetings with G7 finance ministers. 'I honestly don't think there's going to be a significant impact on corporate investment.'"

"Yellen Says Higher Interest Rates Would Be 'Plus' for U.S., Fed," Bloomberg

TRUMP CARDS

THE CULT OF PERSONALITY — "Trump's grievances cloud Republican agenda heading into 2022," by AP's Steve Peoples and Gary Robertson: "Republicans are fighting to seize control of Congress. Just don't ask what they'd do if they win. … The GOP's embrace of Trump's self-serving priorities has almost completely consumed the party's long-standing commitment to fiscal discipline, free markets and even the rule of law. That leaves Republican candidates from North Carolina to North Dakota unwilling or unable to tell voters how they would address the nation's biggest challenges if given the chance.

"Party leaders acknowledge it could be another year or more before Republicans develop a clear governing agenda. In the meantime, Trump, who is focused on the past far more than the future, plans to become a regular campaign fixture again. Building on Saturday's North Carolina appearance, his advisers are eying potential rallies in states with top Senate races in 2022, including Ohio, Florida, Alabama and Georgia."

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

LATEST IN ISRAEL — "Israel Security Chief Warns Against Incitement of Conflict as Tensions Mount Before Key Vote," NYT: "The director of the Shin Bet, NADAV ARGAMAN, made a rare public appeal amid fears that a new round of turmoil might disrupt attempts to form a new government."

— THE VIEW FROM D.C.: "Israel's likely leadership change prompts a hasty rethinking in Washington," by WaPo's Anne Gearan: "Some Democrats said [BENJAMIN] NETANYAHU'S exit could clear the political air for a shift in relations after Netanyahu's close ties to the GOP. … Publicly, the White House insists little will change. …

"[NAFTALI] BENNETT is something of an unknown quantity in Washington. … Republicans are responding cautiously to Netanyahu's likely exit. … Bennett may have little interest in picking fights with Biden and appears eager to restore a more bipartisan framework, most [analysts] agreed."

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

BROOKS VS. SWALWELL PART II — Rep. @MoBrooks (R-Ala.) tweeted this Sunday night: ".@EricSwalwell Well, Swalwell FINALLY did his job, served complaint (on my WIFE). HORRIBLE Swalwell's team committed a CRIME by unlawfully sneaking INTO MY HOUSE & accosting my wife! Alabama Code 13A-7-2: 1st degree criminal trespass. Year in jail. $6000 fine. More to come!" With a screenshot More context from Insider

— Swalwell's attorney denied the charge.

— Check out the Post-it on that screengrab, as @nycsouthpaw notes: "If you're going to put your passwords on a piece of tape below your screen, you might want to refrain from posting photos of it."

 

JOIN TUESDAY FOR A CONVERSATION ON THE PATH TO A LOW-CARBON FUTURE: Reducing waste and conserving scarce natural resources are key goals of the movement to a circular economy. As the nation considers opportunities to reduce waste and improve recyclability, how can these efforts align with other measures to combat climate change? Join POLITICO for a high-level conversation on what it will take to build both a circular economy and a low-carbon future. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

DURBIN SPOX GOES AFTER MANCHIN — Sen. Dick Durbin's (D-Ill.) new press secretary on the Senate Judiciary Committee took a shot at Manchin on Twitter on Sunday — a major faux pas for a congressional staffer.

"All I'm saying is I don't think our founding fathers anticipated the survival of this democratic experiment to rest in the hands of a man who lives in a house boat," Jenna Valle-Riestra wrote. The target wasn't hard to discern: Manchin came out against Democrats' sweeping voting rights bill in an op-ed Sunday, and he lives on a houseboat, "Almost Heaven," while in D.C.

Valle-Riestra quickly deleted the tweet, but not before reporter Gabe Fleisher grabbed a screenshot. She didn't respond to request for comment, but Durbin's comms director sent along this email: "Senators Durbin and Manchin are friends. They're working closely together on many important issues. Any other interpretation misreads the relationship."

GALLEGO GETS HITCHED — Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Sydney Barron, director of government affairs at the National Association of Realtors, got married this weekend in Puerto Rico. The ceremony was officiated by Leigh Parker Pross, who introduced the couple back in 2018, and they were joined by friends and family for a beachfront ceremony. Pic Another pic SPOTTED: Puerto Rico Gov. Pedro Pierluisi, Reps. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), Jimmy Gomez (D-Calif.), Linda Sanchez (D-Calif.) and Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas), and Puerto Rico Sen. Carmelo Rios Santiago.

MAZEL TOV — Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), the No. 3 House Republican, announced on Twitter over the weekend that she's expecting a baby this fall.

DISPELLING MISINFORMATION … ON TRUMP'S PANTS — No, he didn't have his pants on backwards during that Saturday speech, according to this fact check by Snopes.

SPOTTED at a 77th anniversary event commemorating D-Day hosted by the Friends of the National World War II Memorial at the National World War II Memorial on Sunday morning: Josiah Bunting, James Foster, Raymond Kaskey, Harry Miller, Herman Zeitchik, William Quinn, John Herrling and Steve Daugherty.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — David Wilezol is launching Seventh Floor Strategies, a ghostwriting and strategic comms firm. He previously was chief speechwriter to Mike Pompeo and Rex Tillerson at the State Department.

Marta Stoepker, Jason Phelps and Donavan McKinney are joining Climate Power. Stoepker will be deputy managing director for comms and previously was a deputy comms director at the Sierra Club. Phelps will be an adviser and director of national media and previously was deputy comms director at Giffords. McKinney will be political director and previously was political director at SEIU Healthcare Michigan.

TRANSITIONS — Melissa Brown is now comms director for the House Freedom Caucus. She most recently was comms director for Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) and is also a Trump DHS and Interior alum. … Leo Lutz is now deputy comms director for the House Ways and Means GOP. He previously worked in the press offices of Sens. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) and Susan Collins (R-Maine). … Kevin Dawson is now a professional staff member for the Senate Budget GOP. He previously was senior legislative assistant for Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Pa.). …

… David Molina is now a staff assistant for Rep. Alan Lowenthal (D-Calif.). He most recently worked as a consultant at Pacific6 helping with campaigns. … Robert Donachie, Davis Ingle and Annie Morgan are joining Athos PR. Donachie is director of media relations, and previously was comms director for the House Freedom Caucus and is a Chip Roy alum. Ingle is an account executive and previously was a White House press wrangler. Morgan is an account executive and previously was special assistant to the president and associate director of presidential personnel in the Trump White House.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Mike Pence ... Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M) … Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.) (50) ... Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.) … WSJ's Catherine Lucey John Bash ... Drew Teitelbaum ... Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman … DNC's Adonna Biel Keith Maley of Trust for Public Land ... Myra Adams ... Lizzie Fine ... Tina Dupuy ... Micheál Keane ... Vox's Christina Animashaun ... Emily Greenhouse of The New York Review of Books … BlueDot Strategies' Lars Anderson ... POLITICO's Briana McGowanMatt BorgesChris Ortman … Livingston Group's Paul Kelly (6-0) … retired Coast Guard Vice Adm. Brian Peterman ... Elizabeth ThorpStephanie Reichin of SKDKnickerbocker … Alden HartopoAlexander MooneyJerry WhiteSema EmirogluSulome Anderson Ryan TarinelliNathasha LimHaley DorganDavid Kim … CNN's Javier de DiegoVija UdenansChilli AmarKevin PerainoJosh JonesKatie BoyceEric TaborEric BlackwellRaleigh MillerRyan LynchChrissy Rabuse of Rep. Mary Miller's (R-Ill.) office … David Pepper

Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike Zapler, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Allie Bice, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross.

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