News: Biden and EU allies create tough week for China, by China Watcher of the week, Jonas Parello-Plesner

Thursday, June 17, 2021

Biden and EU allies create tough week for China, by China Watcher of the week, Jonas Parello-Plesner

Jun 17, 2021

Welcome, China Watchers. This week's guest host is Jonas Parello-Plesner, executive director of the Alliance of Democracies Foundation. The Foundation hosts the annual Copenhagen Democracy Summit, which had Joe Biden as its keynote speaker in 2018. As a diplomat, adviser and think tanker, Jonas has worked with and in the three power centers of Washington, Beijing and Brussels over the last two decades. Over to you, Jonas. — John Yearwood, global news editor

President Joe Biden's weeklong flurry of European summits is over. "America is back" was the main message with grins galore from G-7 leaders in Cornwall, a NATO Article 5 restored to glory and an EU ready to waltz with the U.S. again. Global summits are once again exercises in making the trains run on time, not the tweet-ladened train crashes we'd come to expect. For the transatlantic reset, the last week has been a great success.

That success made it a tough week for the Chinese regime. What they fear is that Biden could succeed where former President Donald Trump failed — or never genuinely tried — to gather an alliance of democracies to counter China's authoritarianism.

China's worries were already evident in March when the U.S., EU, U.K., Canada and Iceland coordinated sanctions on Chinese officials involved in the human rights abuses in Xinjiang. The Chinese government lashed out with sanctions on European elected parliamentarians intended to scare European capitals from coordinating policy with the U.S. That effort backfired — resulting in the European Parliament freezing the nascent EU investment agreement with China.

Biden arrived in Europe at a time when disenchantment with China runs deep. That was evident from G-7, NATO and EU-U.S. summit statements addressing China's authoritarian coercion, dismal human rights record in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, distortive trade practices, and cyberthreats.

On China, Biden's policy has continuity with Trump's tough approach — with rare bipartisan agreement across Washington. In contrast to his predecessor's singular focus on the U.S. trade deficit with China, Biden frames competition with Beijing as a defining moment between democracy and authoritarianism. Still, that thinking is not hard-wired into European minds. Let's look at that a bit closer.

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Global Britain — Values vs. interests

The U.K.'s Boris Johnson is torn between joining Biden in the aspirational language on democracy and how to position his "Global Britain" economically outside the EU. Long gone are the days when Britain's David Cameron courted Chinese leader Xi Jinping in a Buckinghamshire pub, but the Cabinet is still divided on whether to use the U.K.'s newfound freedom to pursue a trade or investment agreement with China. And as host of the next climate change conference in December, the U.K. wants to cooperate with China, too.

Still, the Johnson government deserves kudos for the often underreported "Democracies 11 initiative," inviting Australia, India, South Africa and South Korea to the G-7 meeting (India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended virtually due to the Covid-19 crisis at home). In Cornwall, the leaders agreed to an Open Societies Statement that clearly labeled the threats to democracy from "rising authoritarianism." That shows that a grouping of democracies can be more than an old and poor Western club — which has been one criticism that Chinese state-controlled outlets have peddled about the G-7.

Germany — BMWs to sell

For six years in a row, China has been Germany's largest trading partner and the growth continued even during the pandemic. It has also meant an increasing strategic dependence to which German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been prone to turning the other cheek when economics are involved. Just think about the dependency on Russia with the gas pipeline Nord Stream 2. I warned about the increasing German economic dependency on China back in 2012. That is now part and parcel of Merkel's legacy. Now, the real question is how a post-Merkel leadership will approach China. Any Green Party involvement in the new government this fall means a tougher line on China and human rights, but perhaps less interest in partnering with the U.S.

France — De Gaulle lives on

French President Emmanuel Macron has his pet project of European strategic autonomy. He doesn't want to saddle France into — as junior partner — a U.S. showdown with China. At the NATO summit, Macron said dismissively that the discussion on China could end up "distracting NATO." And although France is the birth country of freedom, equality and fraternity, the club of democracies approach has never been in vogue.

Central and Eastern Europe get tough

Most of the Central and Eastern Europeans have accepted the new "transatlantic bargain" with the Biden administration to demonstrate a tougher line on China, especially as the U.S. maintains a tough line on Russia in NATO. Lithuania recently broke out of the cooperation framework 17+1. That framework was established by China with only some EU-member states — a Trojan horse for European unity on China issues. The Czech Senate has just labeled the Chinese government's treatment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang a genocide. Only Viktor Orbán's Hungary continues to flirt with China and to spoil EU unity.

Europe — The super tanker is moving

Within such limitations, Europe is inching toward a tougher China policy. China's actions, including the recent sanctions against European elected members of parliament, has played its part. Still, the trade relationship is much deeper than the American one. Even pondering decoupling from the Chinese economy still sends shudders up the spine of any European official.

Establishing a solid EU-U.S. front demands continued work ahead. It can't be achieved in a week of summitry.

If the ambition is to set free-world standards on emerging technology in the EU-U.S. Trade and Technology Council, then agreement must first be found on transatlantic data flows.

The temporary truce on the Boeing-Airbus dispute shows that trust is still only being gradually rebuilt.

On high-speed internet networks, the next frontline should be to create joint transatlantic research and collaboration on 6G and beyond; shutting Huawei out of 5G remains a temporary measure.

During the G-7 summit, the leaders unveiled an infrastructure lending program for developing nations to rival China's Belt and Road Initiative. But if democracies seriously want to launch an alternative to the Belt and Road program, they need more than a G-7 statement and pocket change.

There is work ahead for the democracies of the world to outcompete China's authoritarianism. Next stop is Biden's planned Summit for Democracy.

And now, back to your regular China Watcher programming…

— A tech update from Protocol | China.Protocol | China, backed by Robert Allbritton, publisher of Protocol and POLITICO, tracks the intersection of technology and policy in the world's largest country. Sign up for the newsletter and learn more about Protocol's research here. This week's coverage includes an investigation into Amazon aggregators' China business, a detailed look at DiDi's U.S. IPO, and a report that accuses Apple of censoring LGBTQ+-related apps in China.

TRANSLATING WASHINGTON

— BIDEN WATCHING XI, PUTIN FRIENDSHIP: "Earlier this month, Russian and Chinese officials celebrated an anniversary — while offering up a veiled challenge to the United States," POLITICO's Nahal Toosi reported Monday.

"Twenty years after signing the 'Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation ,' the Chinese-Russian relationship has achieved new heights and is poised to reach a 'larger scale, broader field, and deeper level,' Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in a video message to a think tank forum, according to a readout from the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

"In his video speech to the forum, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov declared, according to a Russian readout, that 'Moscow and Beijing are consistent supporters of the formation of a more just, democratic and therefore stable polycentric system of world order.'

"Hyperbole? To some degree, yes. Hypocrisy? On some fronts, for sure. But to the Biden administration, such lovey-dovey rhetoric between Moscow and Beijing cannot be ignored.

"In fact, U.S. wariness over the Russia-China relationship has grown to the point where high-level American strategists are weighing how to factor it in as they try to orient U.S. foreign policy to focus more on a rising China.

For many years, the relationship between China and Russia appeared to be limited to tactical cooperation or temporary partnerships of convenience, a senior Biden administration official told POLITICO in an interview. More recently, however, it seems to be transforming into something more sustained and strategic."

— NAVAL TASK FORCE TO COUNTER CHINA: POLITICO's Lara Seligman reported Tuesday that the U.S. is considering a permanent naval task force in the Pacific to counter China.

"The plan would also involve creating a named military operation for the Pacific that would enable the defense secretary to allocate additional dollars and resources to the China problem, said the people, who requested anonymity to discuss pre-decisional plans.

"The two initiatives, which are not yet finalized, would add muscle to President Joe Biden 's tough talk on China and send a signal that the new U.S. administration is serious about cracking down on Beijing's military buildup and aggressive behavior in the Pacific region.

"The news comes as NATO leaders are increasingly aligning themselves with Washington's confrontational stance on Beijing. Four years after former President Donald Trump made countering China a top foreign policy priority, NATO allies this week declared Beijing a security challenge and said the Chinese are working to undermine global order."

Hot from the China Watchersphere

— NATO SEES CHINA THREAT: "Boasting of restored unity thanks to the arrival of U.S. President Joe Biden, NATO leaders on Monday declared that China poses increasing dangers to the security of Western democracies. But they then revealed deep disagreements over the urgency in confronting Beijing, or even if it should be NATO's role at all," POLITICO Europe's David M. Herszenhorn and Rym Momtaz report.

"In their closing communiqué of an afternoon summit at NATO headquarters in Brussels, the leaders used remarkably forceful language to describe China as now their most troublesome rival after Russia — given Beijing's fast-expanding nuclear arsenal, stepped-up military cooperation with Moscow, and increasing use of disinformation."

Herszenhorn and Momtaz quoted the Alliance statement as saying: "China's stated ambitions and assertive behavior present systemic challenges to the rules-based international order and to areas relevant to Alliance security.

"We are concerned by those coercive policies which stand in contrast to the fundamental values enshrined in the Washington Treaty," NATO's founding charter.

"The historic shift in focus comes partly at the urging of Biden, who has made clear he sees China as a growing threat. And NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, eager to please the richest and most powerful ally, has taken up the charge."

— G-7 CALLS FOR COVID PROBE: G-7 nations indicated that they're dissatisfied with the investigations that have been done so far on the origins of Covid-19. POLITICO's Myah Ward reported that the G-7 on Sunday called for a "timely, transparent, expert-led, and science-based WHO-convened" investigation into the origins of Covid-19, including in China.

"'Strengthening transparency and accountability, including reiterating our commitment to the full implementation of, and improved compliance with, the International Health Regulations 2005,' the countries said in a joint statement. 'This includes investigating, reporting and responding to outbreaks of unknown origin. We also call for a timely, transparent, expert-led, and science-based WHO-convened Phase 2 Covid-19 Origins study including, as recommended by the experts' report, in China.'

"The call for a closer look at the virus' origin comes weeks after President Joe Biden said the U.S. is split between two origin theories and ordered the intelligence community to redouble efforts to look into the situation. He asked for another report in 90 days.

"The lab leak theory had been widely dismissed by many in the media and political circles as conspiracy, but the rhetoric has shifted in recent weeks as the origin still remains unknown, and evidence to prove it — or any other origin theory — is elusive.

"Many scientists still say the most likely theory is that the virus was passed from an animal host — such as a bat — to humans. And they cannot rule out the lab leak theory based on the current thin body of evidence, coupled with China's unwillingness to share data from the early days of the pandemic," Ward reported.

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Translating China

— CHINA RESPONDS TO 'COLLUSION': "China does not tolerate foreign forces intervening in Taiwan issues and has to make strong responses to such acts of 'collusion,' the government said on Wednesday after the island reported the largest incursion to date of Chinese aircraft," according to Reuters.

"Twenty-eight Chinese air force aircraft, including fighters and nuclear-capable bombers, entered Taiwan's air defence identification zone (ADIZ) on Tuesday, the Chinese-claimed island's government said.

"The incident came after the Group of Seven leaders issued a joint statement on Sunday scolding China for a series of issues and underscored the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, comments China condemned as 'slander.'

"Asked at a news conference whether the military activity was related to the G7 statement, Ma Xiaoguang, spokesman for China's Taiwan Affairs Office, said it was Taiwan's government that was to blame for tensions. Beijing believes the island's government is working with foreign countries to seek formal independence," Reuters reported.

— CHINA ADMITS TO FUEL RODS DAMAGE: The fuel rods at a nuclear power plant in the south of the country were damaged but no radioactivity had leaked, the Chinese government said. The BBC reported that China's Ministry of Ecology and Environment said the problem was "common" with no need for concern.

The government made the admission "after CNN reported that the U.S. government was assessing a reported leak at the facility."

"The French energy firm which helps operate the plant in Guangdong province earlier reported a 'performance issue.'

"On Monday, a spokesperson for EDF Energy said a problem with fuel rods had led to the build-up of gases, which had to be released into the atmosphere," the BBC reported.

— ASTRONAUTS TO OCCUPY SPACE STATION: Three men are expected to spend three months living and working aboard the Tianhe module some 236 miles above the Earth, according to the BBC.

"It will be China's longest crewed space mission to date and the first in nearly five years. Their Shenzhou-12 capsule is primed atop its Long March 2F rocket," BBC reported.

"The men are to be launched Thursday morning from the Jiuquan satellite launch centre in the Gobi desert. The event is another demonstration of China's growing confidence and capability in the space domain."

Thanks to: Ben Pauker, Luiza Ch. Savage, Matt Kaminski and editor John Yearwood.

Do you have tips? Chinese-language stories we might have missed? Would you like to contribute to China Watcher or comment on this week's items? Email us at chinawatcher@politico.com.