News : Axios Sports: Osaka withdraws — Soccer Moneyball

Tuesday, June 1, 2021

Axios Sports: Osaka withdraws — Soccer Moneyball — Buffalo Blue Jays

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Axios Sports

By Kendall Baker ·Jun 01, 2021

👋 Good morning! The NFL season kicks off in exactly 100 days.

🏒 Stat du jour: 14 of the NHL's 15 highest-paid players (by cap hit) have been eliminated from playoff contention.

Today's word count: 2,094 words (8 minutes).

Let's sports...

1 big thing: 🎾 Osaka withdraws in Paris

Photo: Tim Clayton/Corbis via Getty Images

Naomi Osaka pulled out of the French Open on Monday amid controversy over her decision to not participate in press conferences at the tournament.

Catch up quick: Osaka announced last week that she would skip the media sessions, saying, "I've often felt that people have no regard for athletes mental health and this rings very true whenever I see a press conference or partake in one."

This resulted in a $15,000 fine by Roland Garros, which posted a now-deleted photo of other athletes doing media hits with the caption, "They understood the assignment."
Osaka's older sister, Mari, took to Reddit on Sunday to explain that Naomi's refusal to speak with media started with criticism over her performance on clay, which "shattered" her confidence.

What she's saying: In her withdrawal announcement, Osaka said she suffers from depression. That changed the tone in a major way, as her pre-tournament complaints had seemed more focused on athlete-media relations and reforming press conferencess.

"This isn't a situation I ever imagined or intended when I posted a few days ago. I think now the best thing for the tournament, the other players and my well-being is that I withdraw."

"I never wanted to be a distraction and I accept that my timing was not ideal and my message could have been clearer."

"The truth is that I have suffered long bouts of depression since the U.S. Open in 2018 and I have had a really hard time coping with that."

"Though the tennis press has always been kind to me ... I am not a natural public speaker and get huge waves of anxiety before I speak."

"So here in Paris I was already feeling vulnerable and anxious so I thought it was better to exercise self-care and skip the press conferences."

Can't make this up ... The head of the French Tennis Federation read a short pre-prepared statement on Monday, saying he was "sorry and sad" for Osaka, then refused to take questions from the media.

What they're saying:

Serena Williams: "I wish I could give her a hug. ... Everyone is different, and everyone handles things differently. You just have to let her handle it the way she wants to, in the best way she thinks she can."
Martina Navratilova: "Above all, it's just really sad: for her, for the tournament, for the sport. She tried to ... lessen a problem for herself and instead she just made it much bigger than it was in the first place."
Patrick McEnroe: "In the long term, certainly you can't have players just deciding to do whatever they want to do. ... [But] you can make some possibilities to try to change them, which I think she is doing."

Meanwhile, on the court ... Williams starred in the French Open's first-ever night session, and No. 4 Dominic Thiem lost in the first round.

2. 🏒 "Running Choke": Leafs collapse again

Courtesy: Toronto Sun

The Maple Leafs had three chances to eliminate the Canadiens and failed to do so each time, losing 3-1 in Monday's Game 7 and tumbling out of the playoffs — again.

By the numbers: The Maple Leafs haven't won a playoff series since 2004. They have eight straight losses in series-clinching games, and they've lost a winner-take-all game in four straight postseasons.

Most importantly, Toronto remains without a Stanley Cup title since 1967. They were viewed as a contender this season after finishing with 77 points atop the North Division — 18 more than Montreal.
0-for-23: Sportsnet, a Canadian broadcaster, asked 23 NHL personalities to predict the winner of this series. All 23 picked Toronto.

The other side: This is the second time the Canadiens have overcome a 3-1 deficit against a team that had 10+ more wins than them that season (2010 vs. Capitals). No other NHL/MLB/NBA team has done that twice.

Carey Price was unreal, posting a .947 save percentage in the series and saving his best game for last, with 30 saves on Monday.
He was a one-man penalty killer at times, as the Maple Leafs power play went 0-for-7 in the last three games of the series.

Where it stands: The second round is now set. The Hurricanes host the Lightning in tonight's only matchup (7:30pm ET, NBCSN).

East: Islanders vs. Bruins (Tied 1-1)
Central: Lightning vs. Hurricanes (TB leads 1-0)
West: Avalanche vs. Golden Knights (COL leads 1-0)
North: Canadiens vs. Jets (Starts Wednesday)

3. ⚽️ "Moneyball" takes Brentford to the top

Photo: Catherine Ivill/Getty Images

Brentford's long journey through English soccer's wilderness came to an end Saturday, with their 2-0 win over Swansea earning them promotion to the Premier League, Axios' Jeff Tracy writes.

Wild stat: Brentford was last in the top tier of English soccer in 1947. The 73 seasons between top-flight campaigns is the most in history.
The intrigue: They got here with a carefully-crafted, analytics-driven strategy akin to the Oakland A's "Moneyball" model, and now they'll get a chance to see how it plays at the sport's highest level.

The backdrop: Brentford's ascension began in 2012, when entrepreneur and former professional gambler Matthew Benham bought the team and began employing philosophies that helped him succeed in those arenas.

One key example is the "table of justice," which values underlying metrics like shot and goal differential more than wins and losses, which get skewed by the randomness of such a low-scoring sport.
Brentford also leverages Smartodds, Benham's statistical analysis company. It was created to give gamblers an edge, but that same data can tell a team if signing a certain player is a wise decision.

Between the lines: Brentford's biggest move came in 2016, when they scrapped their youth academy (16-and-under) in favor of a "B team" of 17-to-20-year-old castoffs from other clubs.

So, instead of developing young talent that richer teams would often sign away, they re-invested that money into players from other clubs they deemed to be undervalued.
"The poor are better at making talent than the rich, because they don't have a choice," Brentford co-director of football Rasmus Ankersen told B/R in 2017.
"You never know if [a young player] is going to make it before you've given him 35 games. But do you have the guts to give him those 35 games?"

The big picture: Soccer has largely avoided the on-field analytics revolution because it's such a fluid sport and can't be turned into a math equation the same way baseball or even basketball can.

Yes, but: It's coming — particularly in terms of how players are developed and teams are run. Just ask Billy Beane, himself, who's now focused on it and owns stakes in multiple European clubs.

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4. 🏀 Must-see matchup: LeBron vs. the Suns

Photo: Christian Petersen/Getty Images

LeBron James has played in an NBA-record 264 playoff games. Aside from the 55 Finals games, few have been more important to his legacy than tonight's Game 5 in Phoenix (10pm ET, TNT).

The state of play: With the Lakers-Suns series tied 2-2, Anthony Davis (groin) is unlikely to play. James has been good but not great as he works his way back from his ankle injury — and it's time for him to be great.

With Chris Paul (shoulder) looking stronger in Game 4, the Suns are in position to hand James his first opening round series loss ever.
James: "These shoulders were built for a reason. If it takes me putting some more on top of them, so be it. ... I'm ready for the challenge."

📆 Coming up:

Tonight: Celtics at Nets, 7:30pm (BKN leads 3-1); Trail Blazers at Nuggets, 9pm (Tied 2-2); Lakers at Suns, 10pm (Tied 2-2)
Tomorrow: Wizards at 76ers, 7pm (PHI leads 3-1); Hawks at Knicks, 7:30pm (ATL leads 3-1); Grizzlies at Jazz, 9:30pm (UTA leads 3-1); Mavericks at Clippers, 10pm (Tied 2-2)

5. ⚾️ The Blue Jays are back in Buffalo

Photo: Nicholas T. LoVerde/Getty Images

The Blue Jays aren't able to return to Toronto just yet, but they're one step closer to home after migrating north to Buffalo, Jeff writes.

Driving the news: After starting the season at their spring training facility in Dunedin, Florida, the Jays host the Marlins tonight at Sahlen Field — home of their Triple-A Buffalo Bisons.
The backdrop: On Sept. 29, 2019, the Blue Jays beat the Rays in Toronto to close out their season. Due to COVID-19 travel restrictions, they haven't played a game there since. They borrowed Sahlen Field for all of 2020, and now they're back.

Source: @ToddRadom (Twitter)

Between the lines: The Jays went 10-11 and averaged ~1,500 fans (17% of capacity) in their 21 games played at Dunedin's TD Ballpark.

Sahlen Field, where they went 17-9 last year, could provide just the jolt they need to fight through the AL East's four-team gauntlet.
Sahlen's capacity (16,600) is the largest in Triple-A, and after a fanless 2020, it will open tonight at 35% capacity before increasing to 45% in two weeks.

What they're saying: "This is like 'Field of Dreams comes to Dunedin.' Granted, it's a weird place for a major-league game. But I love it. I'm sorry to see it end," Dunedin local Chris Ballantyne told the Tampa Bay Times.

But his loss is Buffalo's gain: "The only thing lacking from a successful MLB summer at Sahlen Field in 2020 was the ability to share that experience with our great fans," said Mike Buczkowski, president of Rich Baseball Operations, which owns the Bisons.
"I know Buffalo is ready to get back to the ballpark and give the Blue Jays a 'home-away-from-home' field advantage that will propel them towards another postseason run."

Go deeper: The long, rich history of baseball in Buffalo (MLB)

6. 🏆 Roundup: College championships

Photo: Larry French/NCAA Photos via Getty Images

🥍 Men's lacrosse : Virginia won its seventh national championship in a 17-16 thriller over Maryland that tied the record for most goals ever in a title game. Watch the hectic final seconds.

Photo: Patrick Smith/Getty Images

🥍 Women's lacrosse: Charlotte North (above) broke the single-season NCAA goals record (102 goals) and Boston College beat Syracuse, 16-10, to win its first title.

Photo: Jamie Schwaberow/NCAA Photos via Getty Images

⛳️ Men's golf: Clemson's Turk Pettit won the individual national title. "Last tournament I ever play as a college golfer and I ended up winning," he said. "I've only had two wins in college golf, so that's pretty special."

Photo: Mark Brown/NCAA Photos via Getty Images

🚣 Women's rowing: Texas won its first championship, marking the school's third national title this spring (women's tennis and men's swimming and diving).

More champions ... RIT won the D-III men's lacrosse title in a 15-14 double-OT thriller over Salisbury, Washington won its 19th men's rowing title, Bates won its fourth straight D-III women's rowing title.

7. ⚡️ Lightning round

Photo: Stacy Revere/Getty Images

🏁 Hail, Hélio: Hélio Castroneves won his record-tying fourth Indy 500 in front of 135,000 fans, becoming just the fourth driver to win after turning 46. Photos from the Speedway.

⚾️ Baseball bracket: The road to the 2021 College World Series begins Friday in 16 regionals. The top eight seeds: Arkansas, Texas, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Arizona, TCU, Mississippi State, Texas Tech. Full schedule.

🏀 Hughes retires: Seattle Storm coach Dan Hughes, the third-winningest coach in WNBA history (286 wins), retired on Sunday.

🚲 Bernal is back: Egan Bernal, who has struggled with a lingering back injury, won the 2021 Giro d'Italia, joining an elite group of cyclists that have won both the Giro and Tour de France before their 25th birthday.

🇺🇸 3x3 failure: The U.S. men failed to qualify for the Olympic debut of 3x3 basketball, while a women's team of WNBA standouts did qualify for the Tokyo Games.

8. 📆 June 1, 1917: Hank Gowdy enlists

Photos: Getty Images. Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

104 years ago today, Boston Braves catcher Hank Gowdy (pictured in the middle poster above) became the first active major leaguer to enlist for service in World War I.

Service: The Columbus native joined the Ohio National Guard and by early 1918 he was in the trenches in France, fighting for the newly-formed 42nd Infantry Division.

He returned to Boston a hero and played nine more seasons with the Braves and Giants before becoming a coach.
When World War II broke out, he enlisted again, becoming the only MLB player to fight in both wars.

Gowdy in 1914. Photo: Bettmann Archives/Getty Images

🇺🇸 Hope you had a meaningful Memorial Day. And to the fighters we honored this weekend and their families: Thank you for America.

Go deeper: War, fever and baseball in 1918 (Axios)

9. ⚽️ Champions League trivia

Photo: Alexander Hassenstein/UEFA via Getty Images

Chelsea beat Manchester City on Saturday to become the sixth club with multiple men's Champions League titles this century.

Question: Who are the other five?
Hint: They're based in four different countries.

Answer at the bottom.

10. 💬 Quote du jour: The pope on basketball

Photo: Alberto Pizzoli/AFP via Getty Images

Pope Francis described basketball as "a sport that lifts you up to the heavens" in an address to the Italian Basketball Federation on Monday.

"Yours is a sport that lifts you up to the heavens because ... it is a sport that looks upwards, towards the basket, and so it is a real challenge for all those who are used to living with their eyes always on the ground."

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Talk tomorrow,

Kendall "Tell the pope to subscribe" Baker

Trivia answer: Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, FC Barcelona, AC Milan, Liverpool