| | | | | |  | | By Sarah Ferris | Presented by Altria | CAN THE Q STAY BLUE? — It might be the off year, but both parties are ready to turn today's special election in New Mexico into a preview of next fall's grueling battle to control the House. Voters go to the polls today to fill the Albuquerque-area seat recently vacated by Interior Secretary Deb Haaland. In all likelihood, this is a safe Democratic seat. Biden won the district by 23 percentage points last fall, and it hasn't been a true battleground in about a decade. Dem candidate Melanie Stansbury nearly tripled the fundraising haul of her GOP opponent, Mark Moores. To top it off, neither the DCCC nor the NRCC is spending money — a sign that there's little upset potential. Still, Dems are leaving nothing to chance and would love to dominate this race. In a recent fundraising email, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) described it as "the first big test for House Democrats in 2021" — one of several urgent appeals from party leaders this month. The GOP campaign arm, meanwhile, is revving up its own base by hammering Dems on "defund the police" and immigration enforcement. Republicans are ready to set the tone for a midterm cycle that already has House Dems on their heels, with just a six-seat majority. More on both parties' messaging tactics in this great Ally Mutnick dispatch from ABQ https://politi.co/3p5z82E. Majority math — If Dems win this one, their margin in the House goes up and they'll have four seats to spare. The next special election is slated for Aug. 3 for Ohio's 11th District, vacated by Marcia Fudge, the new Housing and Urban Development secretary. Related: "Special House election measures political pulse after Trump," AP's Morgan Lee https://bit.ly/3vQCLMN. "What New Mexico's special election can tell us about the midterms" via CNN's Harry Enten https://cnn.it/3yZXP5
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More House headlines: "Wesley Hunt announces 2022 bid for Congress, but waits to decide on a district" via the Houston Chronicle's Jasper Scherer https://bit.ly/3p5lyMO; "Democratic candidates line up to fill Val Demings' House seat" via WFTV's Christopher Heath and Charles Frazier https://bit.ly/3vCUUxq.
DEMS SAY 'DUMP TRUMP': Donald Trump has perhaps never been a clearer political target for Democrats, months after fueling a violent riot on his way out of office and alienating many within his own party. Plus, Trump is now the target of a grand jury investigation in Manhattan *and* the subject of Judiciary Committee testimony this Friday from Don McGahn, his former White House counsel. But House Dems say they're less than eager to go after the twice-impeached president on the campaign trail — especially when their majority is on the line. Instead, many Dems are already looking at how to pivot away from Trump and toward the policy-heavy playbook of 2018, when the party picked up dozens of seats to win back the majority. "Trump is a Republican problem and a Republican cancer that they need to cut out of their party," said Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.), who recently announced her bid for reelection for a battleground district near Orlando. "But that's their problem." That doesn't mean Dems will let the GOP off entirely when it comes to its Trump fealty. The key, according to several Dems, is finding ways to hit Republicans on issues like the Jan. 6 commission without the "T" word, which some fear could also juice up the GOP base. "I think it's a bad idea if [Democrats] bring Trump in and they really make him the focal point of the election," said freshman Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.), a member of the House Freedom Caucus. "You're gonna have some places where it hurts them and other places where it hurts them severely." The full story from your fill-in Huddle host & Melanie https://politi.co/3vBjLS6. Related: "House Democrats are still pursuing Trump's tax returns but Biden administration may not play ball," by CNN's Jeremy Herb, Katelyn Polantz, Lauren Fox and Evan Perez https://cnn.it/3fEsMEl. "Democrats aim to make Greene their foil ahead of midterms" by The Hill's Tal Axelrod https://bit.ly/3i1jyno. UNRELATED: These are some serious stoop kid vibes from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who apparently joined a "stoop party" during a bike ride through Brooklyn on Monday. Pic. AND another.
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HAPPY TUESDAY! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this June 1, where we're hoping for a quiet recess week (knocks wood). We're also wishing a speedy recovery to Rep. Debbie Dingell after her hospital stay last week.
FRIDAY'S MOST CLICKED: Burgess' story on Senate GOP moderates fuming at their leadership for blocking the Jan. 6 commission was the big winner. PETE BRINGS THE HEAT — Stop us if you've heard this before, but this might just be *the* critical week for President Joe Biden's infrastructure package. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said Sunday that the White House needs a "clear direction" by the time the Senate returns on June 7. And POLITICO's Chris Cadelago reports today that White House aides are eyeing June 9 as their soft deadline — the same day a House committee is set to begin work on a surface transportation bill. Story here: https://politi.co/3c8ysV5 . That gives the Senate GOP's negotiators just one last shot at getting to a yes — or for Dems to move on without them. Dems are striking a more urgent tone as they enter a busy summer stretch for Biden and for Congress, aiming to pass a gigantic jobs bill by the time Congress leaves for the August recess. "Time is not unlimited here," Buttigieg said on CNN's "State of the Union" on Sunday. Biden plans to meet with the lead GOP negotiator, Sen. Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia, sometime this week. Capito remains hopeful, telling Fox News Sunday: "I think we can get to real compromise, absolutely, because we're both still in the game." But we've also heard more and more Senate Dems point to reconciliation as the most likely option, including Majority Leader Chuck Schumer saying Friday that it's under "serious consideration." (Many progressive Dems, meanwhile, have been willing to pull the trigger for months.) There's a mechanical factor here, too: Because Biden has released his budget, Democrats can now *actually* start reconciliation as soon as they want to. Caitlin, Marianne and I d-wonkified that one on Friday. Meanwhile, a group of GOP senators say Biden told them in a recent Oval Office meeting that he'd be satisfied with a bill framework to spend $1 trillion over eight years instead of five — a figure that could actually be workable to both parties, per WaPo's Seung Min Kim. Related: "White House gives GOP 1 week to reach deal on infrastructure," by the AP's Hope Yen https://bit.ly/34wHNBJ. "Buttigieg: Americans can't wait for 'dorm room debate' over infrastructure," by POLITICO's Maya Parthasarathy https://politi.co/3fWqnnu.
| | | | JOIN TUESDAY FOR A TALK ON ECONOMIC RECOVERY AFTER COVID-19: The U.S. economy is picking up speed, sparking fears of inflation and financial bubbles even as millions are still out of work following the Covid recession. Join us for an interview with Federal Reserve Vice Chair of Supervision Randal Quarles to discuss the U.S. economic outlook, how the nation's banks are holding up, and what to expect from the Fed on interest rates and regulations. REGISTER HERE. | | | | |
S1 SUMMER — Several high-profile Democrats are pointing to the Texas GOP's failed attempt to pass restrictive voting laws this weekend as further proof that Biden and Congress need to act quickly to prevent further damage at the state level.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) on Monday gave credit to the Texas Dems — whose late-night walkout stymied a GOP bill to restrict voting access — and added: "Let's see if Democrats in the U.S. Senate have the same courage." Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), meanwhile, countered on Monday that "Texas has to counter congressional Democrats who are scheming to undermine election integrity." Coming up ... Schumer said Friday he plans to bring the bill to the Senate floor the week of June 21. It won't be easy. As Sen. Jon Tester told NYT's Nick Fandos, "First of all, we have to figure out if we have all the Democrats on board. Then we have to figure out if we have any Republicans on board." Story here: https://nyti.ms/3p8SbJr. Related: "After defeating restrictive voting bill, Texas Democrats send loud message: 'We need Congress to do their part'" by WaPo's Amy Gardner. https://wapo.st/3uCkRLZ
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CAMPAIGN QUICK CLICKS -- It's a recess week, so we're checking in on the Senate's top races.
OHIO... — "J.D. Vance emerges as wild card in Ohio GOP Senate primary" by The Hill's Julia Manchester https://bit.ly/3yZYgwD — "Josh Mandel's Senate campaign sees exodus of fundraisers, sources say," via the Columbus Dispatch's Laura A. Bischoff and Haley BeMiller https://bit.ly/34z61vf — "Much Of Ohio Is Trump Country. And That Complicates Things For The GOP" by NPR's Don Gonyea https://n.pr/3vDnJd9. PENNSYLVANIA... — "Trump looms large in Pennsylvania's GOP primaries in 2022," by the AP's Marc Levy https://bit.ly/3vDnvmj GEORGIA — 'Up in the air.' In Georgia politics, the wait is on for top 2022 races. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Bluestein https://bit.ly/3icp72x TODAY IN CONGRESS The House and Senate are out. AROUND THE HILL Tumbleweeds (and cicada shells). TRIVIA FRIDAY'S WINNER: Betsy Hawkings was the first person to correctly guess that Doug Wilder was the first African American elected governor in the great state of Virginia. Pinckney Benton Stewart Pinchback of Louisiana, who served during reconstruction, was the first African American governor, but he was not elected. TODAY'S QUESTION: From your fill-in Huddle host: Who was the first president to hold a Memorial Day ceremony at Arlington National cemetery? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answer to obeavers@politico.com. GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each morning. Follow Olivia on Twitter: @Olivia_Beavers
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