Wednesday, May 19, 2021

Yellen the villain — No deal on infrastructure — Bank stocks pop

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May 19, 2021 View in browser
 
POLITICO Morning Money

By Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver

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Quick Fix

Yellen the villain — Wall Street and corporate America mostly loved Janet Yellen when she was the dovish Fed Chair, pumping the gas on the economy with low interest rates (despite a brief hiking cycle.) They don't love her anymore as Treasury Secretary.

Yellen pushed Biden's much loathed corporate and investment tax hikes at the Chamber of Commerce, arguing that the administration's proposed investments would increase productivity and ultimately profits. "We hope business leaders will see it this way, and support the jobs plan." But they don't see it that way. And they won't support the jobs plan, as Chamber officials made clear after the event.

Yellen also met with board members of the American Bankers' Association, again pitching the tax and spending proposals to an equally dubious audience filled with folks who will do everything they can to thwart most of the proposals.

It's not just the tax hike push that has investors and the business community irked with Yellen. Many Wall Streeters complained to MM privately after Yellen said earlier this month that interest rates might have to rise to combat inflation, a comment decidedly out of step with messaging from both the White House and current Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

She later pretty much walked back the comments. But the previously beloved Yellen is emerging as a flash point for corporate unhappiness with the Biden White House.

Still no infrastructure deal in sightVia our Marianne LeVine, Sam Mintz, and Laura Barrón-López: "There's still no infrastructure deal in sight after Senate Republicans crafted a revised proposal and met with the White House for a second meeting in less than a week. And they still can't define infrastructure.

"Senators described the Tuesday discussion as 'productive' and Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, the top GOP negotiator, said that Republicans and the administration are 'closing in on' the parameters for what constitutes infrastructure. But there's still no consensus on a top line number, how to pay for it or how many years the package will cover." Other than that it all looks great!

GOOD WEDNESDAY MORNING — Email me on bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver on aweaver@politico.com and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.

 

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Driving the Day

House Financial Services has a remote hearing at 10 a.m. on "Oversight of Prudential Regulators: Ensuring the Safety, Soundness, Diversity, and Accountability of Depository Institutions" featuring NCUA chair Todd Harper; acting OCC head Michael Hsu; FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams and Fed vice chair of supervision Randy Quarles …

Senate Banking at 2:30 p.m. plans to vote on the nominations of Adrianne Todman to be deputy HUD secretary; and Nuria I. Fernandez to be federal transit administrator.

BIG CASH FLOODS NYC MAYOR'S RACE — Our Joe Anuta and Sally Goldenberg: "Hedge fund billionaires, charter school boosters and prominent labor unions are pouring cash into the New York City mayor's race — contributing to a record haul intended to shape the outcome of the election at the same time new reforms seek to limit the influence of money in politics.

"A decade after the U.S. Supreme Court flung open the doors to unlimited special-interest money in elections , the Democratic primary is being infiltrated at every turn, with an unprecedented $11 million already committed in TV ads, according to a POLITICO review of spending calculated by AdImpact. That total has already surpassed the $8 million spent to promote and attack candidates the last time the mayor's seat was open in 2013 — a figure that accounted for both the primary and the general election that year."

NEW OCC HEAD SAYS REGS ARE MISSING FINTECH STRATEGY — Our Victoria Guida: "The Biden administration's pick to lead the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency will tell lawmakers Wednesday that regulators need to better coordinate how they police technological innovation in finance, warning that agencies lack a clear strategy.

"In prepared testimony for the House Financial Services Committee , acting Comptroller Michael Hsu said new trends in financial technology, like artificial intelligence or distributed ledgers, 'cannot be stopped,' posing both promise and risk. But he warned that regulators were 'taking a fragmented agency-by-agency approach.' Hsu said he intends to take a second look at what his agency has done in response to recent technological developments."

 

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Markets

S&P 500 FLAT AS TELECOM WEAKNESS OFFSETS RETAIL EARNINGS – Reuters' Medha Singh and Shashank Nayar: "The S&P 500 wavered between slight gains and losses on Tuesday as a sharp decline in telecom stocks and weak housing starts data overshadowed better-than-expected earnings from Walmart and Home Depot.

"AT&T Inc. shed 5 percent, the top drag on the benchmark S&P 500, as it extended declines from Monday, when the telecoms firm said it would cut its dividend ratio as a result of its $43 billion media asset deal with Discovery Inc."

BANK STOCKS SHINE — WSJ's David Benoit: "Everyone is clamoring for a piece of U.S. banks. Investors, eager to get exposure to an economic recovery, are pouring into bank stocks like never before, putting the stocks on track for what could be their best year on record compared with the S&P 500. Bank of America Corp and JPMorgan Chase recently issued gigantic bonds that rank as the two largest single bank deals in history, turbocharging a big year for financial debt issuance.

"After years of underperformance since the 2007-08 financial crisis, and a particularly brutal 2020, longtime bank investors are feeling some long-awaited validation. Analysts say the stocks remain cheap, and many shareholders view them as a relatively safe investment that grows along with the economy."

 

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Fly Around

BIDEN REVERSES TRUMP CHANGES TO BANK ANTIDISCRIMINATION LAW — AP's Ken Sweet: "The Biden administration said Tuesday it will repeal changes made by the Trump administration to a law aimed at stopping banks from discriminating against racial minorities and the poor.

"The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, one of the nation's bank regulators, said it plans to reconsider the regulations written in 2020 governing a law known as the Community Reinvestment Act. The civil rights era law requires banks to document the extent of their lending to the communities that surround their branches in order to ensure they are not just lending to the wealthy or to white customers."

YELLEN: BIDEN'S TAX HIKE, SPENDING PLANS TO BOOST PROFITS — Reuters' David Lawder: "U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen tried to sell President Joe Biden's $2.2 trillion corporate tax hike and infrastructure plans to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on Tuesday, saying that the proposals will improve the profitability and competitiveness of American corporations.

"Yellen told a Chamber online conference that the 'American Jobs Plan' infrastructure investments would have a direct payoff to the American people, create jobs and simply 'return the corporate tax rate toward historical norms.'"

WHITE HOUSE MEMO SEES ECONOMIC STRENGTH WHERE CRITICS SEE FRAGILITY — AP's Josh Boak: "White House officials are seeking to quell anxiety about inflation and the pace of hiring — issuing a memo Tuesday that highlights robust economic gains as the United States gets vaccinated and recovers from the coronavirus pandemic.

"The memo … said the administration is 'focused on an economic strategy of containing the virus and growing the economy from the bottom-up and middle-out. Data suggest that this strategy is working.' It is from Brian Deese, director of the White House National Economic Council, and Cecilia Rouse, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers."

 

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SUMMERS ACCUSES FED OF 'DANGEROUS COMPLACENCY' OVER INFLATION — FT's James Politi: "Lawrence Summers, the former U.S. Treasury secretary, has sharply rebuked the Federal Reserve for its loose monetary policies, accusing the central bank of creating a 'dangerous complacency' in financial markets and misreading the economy.

"The comments from Summers at a conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta marked a significant escalation of his attacks on the US central bank. The Harvard University economist and former top Democratic presidential adviser had already criticized Joe Biden's fiscal stimulus as overly excessive earlier this year."

COVID'S NEXT CHALLENGE: THE GROWING DIVIDE BETWEEN RICH, POOR ECONOMIES — WSJ's Joe Parkinson: "Covid-19 is reopening a rift between economies in the world's richest and poorest nations, driven by growth rates that are moving firmly in opposite directions. In the U.S., economists are forecasting a return to boomtime growth levels of the 'roaring 20s'; China's economy expanded at a record 18.3 percent in the first quarter; and the U.K. is growing faster than at any time since the end of World War II.

"Yet across the developing world, where people are largely unvaccinated and governments are unable to afford sustained stimulus measures, economies are falling further behind, struggling to rebound from last year's record contraction."

DIMON SUCCESSION RACE PUTS TWO WOMEN AT FRONT — Bloomberg Law's Hannah Levitt and Sridhar Natarajan: "The race to the financial world's most prized throne — Jamie Dimon's perch atop JPMorgan Chase & Co. — is drawing closer to its long-awaited conclusion.

"When the largest U.S. bank last shook up its leadership two years ago, about a half-dozen names appeared on lists of Dimon's potential heirs. But another overhaul announced Tuesday pushed two women toward the front of the field: Marianne Lake and Jennifer Piepszak."

WILMERHALE ADDS FORMER TREASURY OFFICIAL — Jonathan Blum, who until this year served as deputy assistant secretary for legislative affairs at Treasury, is joining WilmerHale's public policy and legislative affairs group.

 

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