News: The GOP whip count on a Jan. 6 commission

Wednesday, May 19, 2021

The GOP whip count on a Jan. 6 commission

May 19, 2021

Presented by SoftBank Group

With Nicholas Wu, Burgess Everett, Marianne LeVine and Sarah Ferris.

THE YAY-SAYERS: Alright, alright, alright, your Huddle host and Mel have a tentative, partial whip list of GOP members we believe will vote in favor of the Jan. 6 commission. It isn't comprehensive — some members wouldn't say how they are voting. Others said on the eve of the vote that they aren't sure and want to further review the terms of the agreement. But here is what we found:

Nine of the ten Republicans who voted to impeach Trump are a Yes vote:

1. Rep. John Katko (N.Y.)... it is his deal after all.

2. Rep. Liz Cheney (Wyo.)... she has been very vocal about this.

3. Rep. Anthony Gonzalez (Ohio)

4. Rep. Dan Newhouse (Wash.)

5. Freshman Rep. Peter Meijer (Mich.)

6. Rep. Tom Rice (S.C.)

7. Rep. Adam Kinzinger (Ill.)

8. Rep. Fred Upton (Mich.)

9. Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (Wash.)

The one question mark of the impeachment Republicans is Rep. David Valadao (Calif.), who is also a close McCarthy ally.

Some others who are on board:

10. Rep. Don Bacon (Neb.)

11. Rep. Dave Joyce (Ohio)

12. Freshman Rep. Andrew Garbarino (N.Y.)

Potential Yeses:

13. Rep. Tom Reed (N.Y.)

14. Rep. Jeff Van Drew (N.J.) says he is undecided.

15. Freshman Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Iowa)

16. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.) was very critical of Trump after the Jan. 6 attack and favored a censure.

17. Rep. Michael McCaul (Texas) wouldn't say, but he was very critical of Trump after Jan. 6.

18. Rep. Rodney Davis (Ill.) … won't say how he plans to vote ahead of time.

19. Rep. Tom Cole (Okla.) tells me he is still deciding.

These are just some of the names . Dozens of Republicans are privately considering voting for the Jan. 6 commission — even after GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) said he opposed the investigative body. The decision to support the legislation by the bipartisan House Problem Solvers Caucus, of which Katko is a member, gave it a boost of momentum. We expect 15 or so GOP members in this group to support it — we just don't have the readout of who is included in this list.

The news cycle kicked off early yesterday when McCarthy made his opposition to the commission publicly known, breaking with Katko, whom he had tasked with reaching an agreement with House Democrats.

GOP leaders waffled on this . Despite saying they would not whip members to vote a particular way on the matter, McCarthy and his leadership team issued an informal "leadership recommendation" ahead of the Wednesday vote urging members to vote no. It's not a formal whip effort, but it's meant to nudge members, which signals that top Republicans were starting to grow nervous about how many members may end up crossing party lines.

Some Republicans are upset McCarthy hung Katko out to dry, while other more conservative members feel the minority leader should've been whipping against it.

HFC Chairman Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) told McCarthy on Monday that they are opposed, I'm told. It is a key development since one of McCarthy's main motivations is to become speaker. McCarthy needs the support of the HFC if Republicans win back the majority next cycle. McCarthy also needs Trump on his side. And you know what won't make Trump happy? A commission examining his actions on Jan. 6.

And if none of that has spooked them, Trump issued a statement on Tuesday calling the commission a "Democrat trap" that is "just more partisan unfairness." He singled out McCarthy and McConnell, punctuating his statement by writing that "hopefully" the two GOP leaders "are listening!"

More here from Mel, Nick, and moi: https://politi.co/3u5LngQ

PODCAST ALERT: Melanie joined POLITICO's Dispatch to discuss how the commission has become another litmus test for loyalty to Trump.

TOP-ED: "The Jan. 6 Narrative Commission," by the WSJ Editorial Board: https://on.wsj.com/3eZQLOb

CAN'T MAKE IT UP: A GOP congressman compared Capitol rioters to tourists. Photos show him barricading a door (and screaming), by WaPo's Brittany Shammas: https://wapo.st/3frk0Zf

JOIN TODAY - "THE RECAST" LIVE CONVERSATION: Earlier this year, we launched "The Recast" newsletter breaking down the changing power dynamics in America and how race and identity shape politics, policy and power. We are recasting how we report on this crucial intersection by bringing you fresh insights, scoops, dispatches from across the country and new voices that challenge "business as usual." Join Brakkton Booker, "The Recast" newsletter author and national political correspondent at POLITICO, for a live conversation with Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.); Malika Redmond, co-founder, president and CEO of Women Engaged; Sonal Shah, founding president, The Asian American Foundation; and Lauren Williams, co-founder, CEO and editor in chief of Capital B, about redefining power in America. REGISTER HERE.

NO-SHOW: The Capitol Police Board hasn't appeared together before a congressional committee in 76 years. The three-person panel will continue that streak a little bit longer this afternoon, when only two of its members testify before the House Administration Committee. Its third member, the Senate Sergeant at Arms, declined to testify, a committee spokesperson said, and will be submitting a written statement instead.

The panel's Republicans say the Senate Sergeant at Arms' refusal to testify strengthens arguments for the board's reform. The committee is set to hear from experts as they discuss reform proposals for the much-maligned panel, including Jeffrey Buchanan and Linda Singh, who'd been members of Retired Lt. Gen. Russel Honoré's task force.

PUSH IT TO THE PROG-LIMIT: Progressives are done trying to get Republicans on board with President Joe Biden's infrastructure plan.

Trying to woo GOP lawmakers to support the legislation may mean they may be risking losing out on a generational opportunity to expand paid family leave and child tax credits and invest in green energy, according to the liberal Dems.

Asked if the Biden administration should keep talking to Republicans about a bipartisan infrastructure deal, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) told Burgess: "Absolutely not. Because we might lose our coalition for human infrastructure."

Instead she's "100 percent" in favor of pushing through a multitrillion-dollar package using the blunt partisan mechanism of budget reconciliation. And Gilligrand isn't alone...

Lots more here from Burgess and Sarah: https://politi.co/3yhirFT

Related: Clock ticking on Biden as second GOP infrastructure meeting yields little progress, Marianne, Sam Mintz, and Lara Barrón-López: https://politi.co/3u0wBHO

A message from SoftBank Group:

Entrepreneurs of color are vastly underrepresented in the tech industry. That's why SoftBank Group launched a new $100 million venture fund dedicated to supporting and building a community of outstanding Black, Latinx and Native American entrepreneurs. Learn more at TheOpportunityFund.com.

HAPPY WEDNESDAY! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill on this May 19, where my friend and her husband use a drone to record work projects. This is the footage my friend found when her husband came home...

TUESDAY'S MOST CLICKED: The National Journal's story on how committees may keep pandemic-era innovations was the big winner.

ENDS OF THE FRONTIER? So far, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's competitiveness bill seems on a glide path to passage. But this raised some eyebrows on the Republican side on Tuesday: Minority Leader Mitch McConnell asked Tom Cotton to make his case against the bill at the party lunch, according to two people familiar with the lunch. Cotton has been emailing his colleagues touting a column from Yuval Levin asking whether there's a better way to go about helping the country compete with China.

Related: Anti-Asian American hate crimes bill passes House, heads to Biden, Nick reports: https://politi.co/33VA7Zz | Lawmakers introduce bipartisan bill to protect critical infrastructure against cyberattacks, by The Hill's Maggie Miller: https://bit.ly/3yxl0Uq

SCOOP from WAPO's Paul Kane: "House Democrats' 2020 election autopsy: Bad polling hurt and GOP attacks worked" https://wapo.st/3ymCEKw … which includes his interview with DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney (N.Y.). Maloney worked with senior staff to examine 600 polls related to House races last year and compared them to voter files from 2020, among other state and local data.

Maloney also laid out the findings in a briefing to Dems on Tuesday night. Dems who listened in told Sarah that there were a few main takeaways: The Trump turnout effect, polling errors that occurred because Dems respond at a higher rate and the need to counter the GOP's attacks (socialism, defund the police, etc.) more forcefully. Maloney also stressed the need to better understand "subgroups" like communities of color, and urged Dems to invest more in digital vs. traditional ad spending.

MASKLASH: House Republicans are mobilizing to counter Democrats' rules that require masks on the House floor and in committees.

Rep. Brian Mast of Florida stood up during the GOP conference meeting yesterday morning and told his colleagues he's done wearing them, he will refuse to wear them on the House floor going forward -- he's willing to accept being fined if that is the case, Mel first reported. Well, he did and he will be.

While at least seven other lawmakers copied Mast -- some even took mask-less selfies on the House floor -- just three are facing a $500 fine. The rest are receiving warnings. NBC's Haley Talbot has a pic of those who participated: https://bit.ly/3bzDF8g

Democrats weren't happy and went to confront these members. The Hill's Scott Wong caught part one of the interactions outside: "If you choose not to wear a mask, if you choose to disrespect the floor staff, if you choose to give them a hard time, that's on you," Rep. Jahana Hayes told Mast. He responded: "It's definitely on us if we choose not to wear a mask. I'm glad we agree."

Meanwhile, McCarthy informed the conference that he plans to introduce a privileged motion on the issue of masks today. The language is still being ironed out, but that is something coming down the pike to keep your eye on. And all of this comes as tensions near a boiling point between the two parties over the pandemic era protocols.

Burgess, with the Senate perspective, shared on Twitter: "Meanwhile in the Senate, most are maskless and there was never any enforcement aside from a couple Sherrod Brown requests that Republicans wear theirs a few months ago."

More here from Mel: https://politi.co/3yp7Loq

Related: Three GOP lawmakers fined $500 for flouting House floor mask rules, by The Hill's Cristina Marcos: https://bit.ly/3owfKLS

NOT SO FAST… ERM, NOT SO SLOW: You know that group of senior House Democrats who were pushing for a delay in the Biden administration's latest weapons sale to Israel amid the escalating violence in the region? Well, they seem to be backing off of that request.

My colleagues write: "House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) said he decided against requesting that President Joe Biden delay the $735 million arms sale after the White House offered to hold an 'informational session' for lawmakers on Wednesday."

Andrew and Sarah have more: https://politi.co/3hDlvpY

Campaign Related: Gun-wielding St. Louis lawyer Mark McCloskey launches campaign for U.S. Senate, by The Kansas City Star's Bryan Lowry: https://bit.ly/3hC7VmI | ICYMI: Val Demings to run for Senate against Rubio, our Marc Caputo scooped: https://politi.co/3wm90mN

DON'T MISS OUT ON OUR NEW PLAYBOOK DEEP DIVE PODCAST: Washington is full of whispers, colorful characters and little-known back stories that even D.C. insiders might not know. Playbook Deep Dive is a new, weekly podcast that pulls back the curtain on the stories behind the power. From Congress and the White House to bar stools and backrooms, POLITICO's top reporters and Playbook authors bring you the most compelling and confounding stories that explain what's really going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW.

ZOINKS: "The FBI is investigating whether a U.S. defense contractor unlawfully directed money to support Sen. Susan Collins, according to a search warrant recently unsealed in federal court," WSJ'S Byron Tau and Julie Bykowicz report.

The man in question is Martin Kao, a defense executive. Investigators have searched his electronic devices to see if there is evidence that Kao spearheaded an alleged effort to direct contributions to help Collins (R-Maine) in her 2020 reelection bid. (Defense contractors, under federal law, are prohibited from making contributions to federal elected officials.) More here from the WSJ: https://on.wsj.com/33Uehpc

Related: Lawyers square off over Devin Nunes suit, our Josh Gerstein reports: https://politi.co/3wgzoyb

WHAT DOES THE FOXX SAY? Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.) is now the 5th House member to be fined $5000 for failing to complete the security screening process before entering the House floor. Now the question is: Does she appeal? The backstory of the incident that your Huddle host saw firsthand: https://politi.co/3u0CAwg …

SPOTTED: Davis and Rep. Jimmy Panetta (D-Calif.), co-captains of the Congressional Football Game for Charity hosted a kickoff reception last night attended by sponsors, former NFL players, Capitol Police and more than 40 bipartisan members of Congress. Here is a pic: https://bit.ly/2RlP5pf

The game raises money for the Capitol Police Officers Memorial Fund. Spotted at the reception were Hall of Fame linebacker and coach Mike Singletary, the NFL's first female coach Jen Welter, Capitol Police Chief Yogananda Pittman, Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, McCarthy, the NFL's Ken Edmonds, dozens of former NFL players including Gary Clark and Ray Caldwell, along with reps from the NFL Players' Association and the Washington Football Team. Reps. Valadao, Bacon, Nanette Barragan (D-Calif.), Rick Crawford (R-Ark.), Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), Marc Veasey (D-Texas), Blake Moore (R-Utah), and others were also in attendance.

Taking Bets: Pittman issued a stark warning that the Capitol Police team will be coming for the trophy currently held by the members.

ALSO SEEN: Former Rep. Mark Sanford (R-S.C.) was seen on the House floor on Tuesday, per Nick. Your Huddle host also saw former Rep. Joe Kennedy (D-Mass.) leaving the House yesterday.

QUICK CLICK: Raphael Warnock, the 'senator reverend,' keeps preaching most Sundays, by Roll Call's Paul Fontelo: https://bit.ly/3hC8b4Z

A message from SoftBank Group:

TRANSITIONS

Lia Palazzo is now comms director for Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R-Minn.). She previously was deputy press secretary for Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.).

TODAY IN CONGRESS

The House will meet at 10 a.m. Votes are expected between 1:30 p.m. and 6 p.m. with one big vote happening on the Jan. 6 commission.

The Senate will meet at 10:30 a.m.

AROUND THE HILL

10 a.m.: CIA Director William Burns will testify before a House Appropriations subcommittee.

10 a.m.: CDC Director Rochelle Walensky and departing Principal Deputy CDC Director Anne Schuchat will testify before a Senate Appropriations subcommittee.

10:30 a.m.: Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm will testify before an Energy and Commerce subcommittee.

2 p.m.: NASA Administrator Bill Nelson will testify before a House Appropriations subcommittee.

2:30 p.m. : Pelosi and other top House Democrats will speak about the Jan. 6 commission and the supplemental security bill.

TRIVIA

TUESDAY'S WINNER: Bruce Mehlman was the first to correctly guess that it took then-presidential candidate Richard Nixon six tries to deliver the famous tagline "Sock it to me!" on the hit comedy show "Rowan & Martin's Laugh-In."

Bonus points: A producer tried to offer him another line to use instead: "You bet your sweet bippy," but Nixon didn't know what the word bippy meant and wasn't sure if it had a certain connotation so he declined.

TODAY'S QUESTION: From Bruce: Fortune 500 CEOs were recently polled by Fortune Magazine, asking about their political party registrations…What percentage of CEOs self-identify as Republicans, Democrats & Independents?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answer to obeavers@politico.com.

GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each morning.

Follow Olivia on Twitter: @Olivia_Beavers

A message from SoftBank Group:

Entrepreneurs of color are vastly underrepresented in the tech industry. That's why SoftBank Group launched a new $100 million venture fund for outstanding Black, Latinx and Native American entrepreneurs that use technology to reimagine traditional business models and create new ones.

We are committed to demonstrating there is no tradeoff between diversity and excellence. Learn more at TheOpportunityFund.com.