News: Axios Markets: A jobs report for the ages

Monday, May 3, 2021

Axios Markets: A jobs report for the ages

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Axios Markets

By Dion Rabouin ·May 03, 2021

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🎙 "I worked on jobs with my feet and my hands, but all the work I did was for the other man. Now we demand a chance to do things for ourselves. We're tired of beating our head against the wall and working for someone else." - See who said it and why it matters at the bottom.

1 big thing: A jobs report for the ages

Illustration of an open briefcase with fireworks coming out.

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Expectations are growing for Friday's nonfarm payrolls report to be a big one, with some economists expecting it could show the U.S. added jobs in April at a pace not seen since last year's record-setting hiring spree in May and June.

Why it matters: While it is not expected to match or exceed June's 4.8 million, some economists believe we could see more than 2 million jobs added, compounding the momentum from March when American employers added 916,000 jobs.

By the numbers: Overall, economists are forecasting 977,500 jobs were added in April, per FactSet. But with vaccinations increasing and real-time data showing business openings picking up and hiring taking off, economists are getting more bullish.

Last week's initial jobless claims reading marked the third straight week jobless claims were below 600,000, their lowest since early 2020.

What we're hearing: "We added nearly one million jobs in March. Since then vaccinations have risen markedly in the United States. COVID cases and deaths fallen. People are getting back to work safely," Claudia Sahm, senior fellow at the Jain Family Institute, tells Axios.

Sahm, creator of the Sahm rule recession indicator, is expecting a net 2 million jobs will be added during the month.

The increase in bookings at restaurants and bars over the past two months is "reminiscent" of May and June 2020 when leisure and hospitality employment led the way to record readings, Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies, says in a note to clients.

"Other COVID-sensitive sectors, e.g. retail, health and personal services, are likely to enjoy significant increases as well given the easing of distancing restrictions in many states," she adds.
"Net, our bottom up estimates put total hiring at 2.1 million."

One level deeper: Adding to the strong trend of hiring, more companies are giving out pay increases.

Amazon said Wednesday that more than 500,000 of its employees would receive pay raises of between 50 cents and $3 an hour, while Walmart and Costco announced wide-ranging pay increases earlier this year.

Yes, but: "Not all will return implying the labor force participation rate may struggle to return to pre-Covid levels," Bank of America chief economist Michelle Meyer said in a recent note to clients.

Even after March's strong jobs report, the labor force participation rate remains at its lowest level excluding the pandemic since 1976, and BofA's Meyer estimates that 4.6 million workers remain out of the labor force due to the pandemic.
There were still 8.4 million fewer people employed in the U.S. as of March than there were in February 2020.

2. Catch up quick

Shares in businesses that went public through SPACs have dropped an average of two-thirds from their highs as investors' appetite cools. (FT)

Intel's CEO says the company will not be anywhere near as focused on buybacks going forward. ("60 Minutes")

President Biden and top Democrats are signaling privately they are open to concessions on the $2.3 trillion infrastructure plan or breaking it into smaller pieces if it means securing bipartisan support. (Washington Post)

3. The bullishness in stocks continues

Data: FactSet; Chart: Dion Rabouin/Axios Visuals

U.S. households increased their exposure to stocks to 41% of their total financial assets in April, the highest level on record, WSJ reported Sunday citing JPMorgan and Federal Reserve data that dates back to 1952.

Why it matters: It's the latest evidence that investors are getting far more bullish on equities, increasing exposure to risk and reducing hedges.

The data includes 401(k) retirement accounts, which means everyday Americans' savings are following retail and institutional traders' bets that the stock market will continue to fly high.

By the numbers: Stock funds have seen net inflows for seven straight weeks, including a net $53.7 billion for the week ending March 17, an all-time high, according to data from the Investment Company Institute.

The big picture: Everyone and their mother is buying stocks, with flows underpinned by record borrowing from hedge funds and big banks, as well as a record level of margin debt being held by retail and institutional investors.

Equity funds haven't seen net outflows since the week of March 3, with the S&P 500 rising by 10% since then.
By mid-April, more money had flowed into stock funds this year than had been seen for the 12-year period of 2008-2020.

A message from Canadian Pacific

One railroad connecting
U.S.-Mexico-Canada

A Canadian Pacific transaction offers greater certainty for stockholders and creates more rail competition for shippers.

Remaining the smallest Class 1 railroad, a combination with CP appropriately manages regulatory risk and creates significant benefits for customers and stakeholders.

4. Warren Buffett sees inflation, even if Jerome Powell doesn't

Data: St. Louis Fed; Chart: Dion Rabouin/Axios Visuals

Warren Buffett became the latest big name to weigh in on inflation, telling viewers of the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting this weekend that he and his team are "seeing substantial inflation."

Why it matters: Concern about inflation is growing louder and becoming more pronounced among investors and the general public, even as the Fed and many mainstream economists insist price hikes will be temporary and are not worrisome.

What he's saying: "People have money in their pocket, and they pay higher prices... it's almost a buying frenzy," Buffett said.

"We are raising prices. People are raising prices to us, and it's being accepted."

Of note: Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway bought back $6.6 billion in shares of its own stock after a record $27.4 billion in repurchases last year, adding to the boom in stock buybacks I wrote about late last month.

About the chart: The Fed discontinued its weekly M2 money supply reporting for some reason, however, the monthly chart, updated Tuesday, showed U.S. money stock reaching just below $20 trillion in March.

5. Investors are getting defensive about inflation

Data: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Chart: Dion Rabouin/Axios Visuals

The record 21.2% increase in Americans' personal income in March was notable not only for its rise but for its causes and outcomes.

Between the lines: The Bureau of Economic Analysis pointed out in its monthly report on income and outlays that the increase in personal income "largely reflected an increase in government social benefits."

But rather than spend their stimulus checks and enhanced unemployment benefits, most Americans chose to put the money away, with the U.S. personal savings rate jumping to 27.6%, edging back toward the all-time high set in April 2020.

Watch this space: Spending, on the other hand, rose by a "relatively tame" 4.2% in March, notes AllianceBernstein senior economist Eric Winograd.

Don't sleep: That should translate into more spending in the second quarter, Winograd says, and that data already is playing out in inflation metrics like personal consumption expenditures and the consumer price index.

Both showed not just significant year-over-year rises but surprisingly strong month-over-month readings for March (0.4% for the Fed's favored core PCE reading).
"With the demand side of the economy in strong shape and the supply side still constrained by production bottlenecks and capacity limitations, we should expect inflation to continue rising for the next few months," Winograd says in a note to clients.
"The Fed also expects that, and they view those increases as likely to be transitory. I agree with that assessment, but of course it will be several months before we can be certain."

In the meantime: Investors have been loading up on inflation protection, data from Refinitiv Lipper show.

Inflation-protected bond funds saw record inflows in the first quarter that that was more than 10 times the quarterly average ($19.2 billion in Q1 vs $1.7 billion average dating back to 2003).
Inflation-protected bond funds saw net outflows this past week for the first time in 28 weeks, ending the longest streak since the start of 2008 where they witnessed 70 straight weeks of inflows, notes Jack Fischer, Refinitiv Lipper's senior research analyst.

A message from Canadian Pacific

One railroad connecting
U.S.-Mexico-Canada

A Canadian Pacific transaction offers greater certainty for stockholders and creates more rail competition for shippers.

Remaining the smallest Class 1 railroad, a combination with CP appropriately manages regulatory risk and creates significant benefits for customers and stakeholders.

Thanks for reading!

Quote: "I worked on jobs with my feet and my hands, but all the work I did was for the other man. Now we demand a chance to do things for ourselves. We're tired of beating our head against the wall and working for someone else."

Why it matters: On May 3, 1933, the Godfather of Soul James Brown was born.